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kustomkarkommando
Oct 22, 2012

First Northern Ireland polling results show a marginal shift

https://mobile.twitter.com/LucidTalk/status/826739905720152064

The power of political inertia

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kustomkarkommando
Oct 22, 2012


Just saw Butler and Maskell resigned. For the record they both voted in favour of Corbyn during the PLP confidence vote and where both seen as loose allies...

kustomkarkommando
Oct 22, 2012

OwlFancier posted:

The Lords do tend to act somewhat independently of the commons so they might do their own thing.

Like, all of them might do their own thing, the lords tend to be kind of unpredictable.

Is it Lords reform time yet again

kustomkarkommando
Oct 22, 2012

No whip applied by Labour on the governments programme motion but only 40 odd Labour MPs voted against it

https://mobile.twitter.com/ParlyApp/status/826879839865040896

Yep loads of time

kustomkarkommando
Oct 22, 2012

Five hours to debate amendments setting negotiating priorities, a victory for the opposition...

kustomkarkommando
Oct 22, 2012

namesake posted:

No one is going to change their minds based on what is said in the house, it's the longer term thinking or just short term obedience which will determine what the Tories accept and vote for.

I don't think the official opposition should think like that as its kind of their duty to challenge the government in parliament by you know talking a lot

kustomkarkommando
Oct 22, 2012

namesake posted:

It doesn't take that long to stand up and say 'Giving the government a free hand without these conditions will be bad, vote for this amendments to make it good'. After a few hours it'll get repetitive.

I don't think the opposition should actively vote to curtail the amount of time to make speeches and harangue the government

kustomkarkommando
Oct 22, 2012

namesake posted:

While calling them idiots in parliamentary language might be personally enjoyable they can just step outside and release as many statements as they like to the press. The only really important thing in the HoC is the voting and getting a sick burn on someone which makes the news.

Labour has been talking up how the amendment stage is the "real agenda" and the important parliamentary battle is the committee stage. Why vote to trim that down to a fast track timetable? If it's the centrepeice of your tactic you want to draw it out

kustomkarkommando
Oct 22, 2012

Private Speech posted:

Anyone knows who were the 4 SNP MPs that didn't vote against the government? I'm curious now.

Owen Thompson and Marion Fellows where tellers so didn't vote.

Scanning a division result here the missing two seem to be Callum McCaig (Aberdeen South) and Corri Wilson ( Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock)

kustomkarkommando
Oct 22, 2012

forkboy84 posted:

Why does Northern Ireland have a left-wing pro-union party? Seems a missed opportunity, there was lots of working class unionists who were also trade unionists, so why are all the unionist parties lovely conservatives and reactionaries? Fair enough on social matters, but Sinn Fein are also pretty conservative socially.

Never understood this. Almost as if nationalism and religion is getting in the way of class solidarity, being used to divide and conquer?

The Labour movement in Northern Ireland had marginal successes but was riven by divisions caused by the question of partition, the eventually pro-union Labour faction that emerged from failed attempts to stick to the middle ground (The Northern Ireland Labour Party) had marginal success in and around the docks but the UUP had understood trade unionism to be as grave a threat to their political domination as nationalism since at least the late 1930's and had worked to establish alternative "loyal" unions (often tied explicitly to Orange Lodge hierarchy) and actively worked to undermine those godless communists. The NILP voluntarily dissolved itself into the SDLP back when it was initially formed as a union of Nationalist and Labour opposition forces, but the soft-union left forces largely left the party after it started moving to a decisively nationalist tone.

There have been examples of mass union and labour unrest in protestant working class communities outside of the control of the major parties - which was one of the reason the UUP worked to undermine these forces

A couple of the start-up Loyalist parties that sprang into existence after the Ulster Workers' Council strike where often quite to the left, the general left-wing economic tilt of working class protestant loyalism was a feature that carried through to the PUP

kustomkarkommando
Oct 22, 2012

Also worth pointing out that Brookeborough was propelled into the leadership after a series of worrying by election losses to the emerging NILP and was canny enough to understand the divisions within the Labour movement locally and pounced on them by appointing Harry Midgley, former NILP party leader and MP who lost his seat due to his opposition to Franco (thanks to a quiet clerical intervention) and eventually split the party over his support for the Union, to his cabinet

kustomkarkommando
Oct 22, 2012

quote:

Michael Lux, the former head of the European Commission's customs procedures, has been giving evidence to the Northern Ireland Affairs Committee...

Independent unionist MP Lady Sylvia Hermon asked Mr Lux if Mrs May could achieve "a seamless border".

He replied: "If you define seamless as no border controls then the answer is no, at least for Ireland because it is obliged to apply EU law.

"If the UK is outside the EU it can do whatever it likes."

But he added that "there will be a lot of fraud going on" if the UK does not implement some form of border measures...

There were gasps from some MPs when Mr Lux gave another example of problems that would arise post-Brexit.

"If a Northern Ireland person has a walk and takes its dog over the border there are specific rules on what kind of document you have to have," he told the committee."

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-politics-38829372

kustomkarkommando
Oct 22, 2012

Wheat Loaf posted:

Genuinely wouldn't be surprised if Northern Ireland ends up effectively "cut out" of the UK's borders, ends up like a kind of Kaliningrad Oblast thing.

No special deals!

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-politics-38827331

kustomkarkommando
Oct 22, 2012

Eh, I wouldn't underestimate the resilience of Unionism as a political force and a lot of that plan entails an active drive from FG for reunification which seems a bit unreliable - if its FF I could buy it but their brand of rhetoric is more traditional wouldn't do much to galvanize traditional unionist support for a united Ireland

kustomkarkommando
Oct 22, 2012

If there was a border poll campaign I think "The NHS!" would come up pretty quickly and a response of "sure maybe well talk about it later" might not cut it - I don't think its impossible to swing public opinion but I think there currently does not exist an organised political force that could

kustomkarkommando
Oct 22, 2012

Pissflaps posted:

Isn't the Republic constitutionally bound to seek a reunited Ireland?

No

kustomkarkommando
Oct 22, 2012

Pissflaps posted:

Only from Wikipedia but


Would be odd for the people north and south to demand reunification, but the actual decision to hinge on EU 'sweeteners': though is all quite wishy washy tbf.

Article 3 was amended to be a lot more vague:

quote:

It is the firm will of the Irish Nation, in harmony and friendship, to unite all the people who share the territory of the island of Ireland, in all the diversity of their identities and traditions, recognising that a united Ireland shall be brought about only by peaceful means with the consent of a majority of the people

There's no constitutional proscription to actively seek consent for reunification and the vague language defining a united Ireland as one where all people are united (with no reference to national territory) is wide open to interpretation

kustomkarkommando fucked around with this message at 13:28 on Feb 2, 2017

kustomkarkommando
Oct 22, 2012

Behold all the tabled amendments

kustomkarkommando
Oct 22, 2012

The Lib Dems will deliver the moon on a stick

kustomkarkommando
Oct 22, 2012

Just in case you thought the NI elections where suspiciously civil the DUP launched their campaign today by comparing Sinn Fein to a ravenous crocodile, swearing never to pass an Irish Language Act and repeatedly shouting Gerry Adams while making spooky hand gestures

okay maybe they're weren't spooky hand gestures but still

kustomkarkommando
Oct 22, 2012

Good to see that in the three hour debate on amendments concerning the devolved regions there was enough time to hear from one welsh mp, one northern Irish mp and one and a bit Scottish MPs.

Good show

kustomkarkommando
Oct 22, 2012

https://www.politicshome.com/news/europe/eu-policy-agenda/brexit/news/83133/jeremy-corbyn-facing-shadow-cabinet-split-he-orders

Three line whip in favour of a50 at the third reading by the sound of it

kustomkarkommando
Oct 22, 2012

Starmer withdrawing the Labour amendment was well stupid

kustomkarkommando
Oct 22, 2012

Well you see Brexit will teleport us back to the 1970's

kustomkarkommando
Oct 22, 2012

No vote on the protection of EU nationals ammendment, looks like it got cut for time

kustomkarkommando
Oct 22, 2012

Oh wait its up now

kustomkarkommando
Oct 22, 2012

jabby posted:

For all the talk it looks like very few Tories had the guts to rebel.

I think the most that was mustered was 7 for Chris Leslie's ammendment on a final vote in parliament which where nearly counteracted by the usual Brexiter Labour MPs opposing it

kustomkarkommando fucked around with this message at 20:55 on Feb 8, 2017

kustomkarkommando
Oct 22, 2012

jBrereton posted:

Lib Dems. SNP. S'it.

e: oh Sinn Fein I guess also.

Eh Sinn Fein didn't bother registering with the electoral commission to campaign during the referendum and threw up most of their posters after the vote, their historic eurosceptic attitude south of border meant their opposition to Brexit was a bit limp at best.

The SDLP have been banging the drum as the anti-Brexit party the loudest regionally

kustomkarkommando
Oct 22, 2012

OwlFancier posted:

Labour amendments have been rejected and the tory government has clearly shown it wants full control over the negotiations and their objectives. It is a tory brexit.

If the tories want full control of the negotiations, they can have full control of the blame as well.

Isn't this what abstention exists for though

kustomkarkommando
Oct 22, 2012

OwlFancier posted:

Unless it has actual material effects, how the rest of the house votes is entirely irrelevant other than as a rhetorical tool.

The problem with, say, Harman's abstention on welfare was that it was a rhetorical abstention as well.

Labour could have abstained, voted for, or against, I don't really care. Hence why I supported a free vote. What matters is their rhetorical position because that is the only power they have. Which I think is quite clearly "Support Brexit provided the rights of UK residents are protected to the utmost degree."

The final vote is the cap to your rhetorical positioning though - supporting an a50 bill with no safeguard you insisted where essential for its passage but then you decided weren't is a bit dissonant

kustomkarkommando
Oct 22, 2012

OwlFancier posted:

Eh, marginally. Opposing an A50 bill when "support brexit" is part of your platform is also dissonant. There isn't really a way to convey a conditional position with yes/no/whatever votes.

Again the magic of abstention which is neither supporting or opposing

kustomkarkommando
Oct 22, 2012

We do not oppose brexit so we will not vote against this bill. However we can not vote in favour of this bill railroaded through the house with no consideration for a national consensus as opposed to shallow Tory party politics

kustomkarkommando
Oct 22, 2012

I mean if your going to emphasis that Brexit is must happen due to the popular will you might as well go all out on a "were all in it together" call for cross party engagement to pull the best and brightest from all camps and take about national unity and all that jibber jabber

kustomkarkommando
Oct 22, 2012

OwlFancier posted:

If you're charitably inclined yes. If not, no. Again, voting is not a sufficient method of interpreting a remotely nuanced political platform.

Unfortunately parliament exists and there are votes, an unfortunate part of politics

kustomkarkommando
Oct 22, 2012

I think john redwood won the villain of the week award

kustomkarkommando
Oct 22, 2012

Cerv posted:

it's not in the interests of the EU or the remaining member states for the UK to bomb out without an exit deal being agreed.

3.The Treaties shall cease to apply to the State in question from the date of entry into force of the withdrawal agreement or, failing that, two years after the notification referred to in paragraph 2, unless the European Council, in agreement with the Member State concerned, unanimously decides to extend this period.

The EU sure as hell don't want the UK still in play with their vote when it comes time to draft the next 6 year mutual financial framework so the maximum an extension would probably be is a year

kustomkarkommando fucked around with this message at 10:58 on Feb 9, 2017

kustomkarkommando
Oct 22, 2012

WeAreTheRomans posted:

We'll be alright, I might save this post and ask you about it again in 5 years

You say that before all the Lib Dems move to Dublin and start voting for FG and deliver full liberalism now

kustomkarkommando
Oct 22, 2012

WeAreTheRomans posted:

it's true I might have underestimated the UK's ability to ruin other countries, specially given historical precedent

Too be fair though its not like Irish people are particularly good at the old voting lark.

coughcoughFFresurgancecough

kustomkarkommando
Oct 22, 2012

Paxman posted:

I'm not saying it's an evil racist plot though. I'm saying that somewhere in Wikipedia's culture is the idea that being born in a foreign country is a remarkable thing - remarkable enough that it should be highlighted right at the top of an article. The examples you give are of people now based in America who were born in a foreign country which happens to be the UK.

To be fair SP Hinduja only became a British citizen in 1999 and Peter Mandelson was forced to resign after allegations he intervened in the process when he made financial commitments to the millennium dome so I think it is a bit noteworthy

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kustomkarkommando
Oct 22, 2012

Guavanaut posted:

What part of the original peace deal violates the family values of the Catholic Church? Was someone wearing a condom under their suit?

There was language in the original peace deal specifically addressing gender and LGBTI issues that guaranteed economic and social rights to people of "diverse sexual orientations and indentities". Cue salty right wing religious backlash from people still smarting over the legalisation of same sex marriage

kustomkarkommando fucked around with this message at 00:24 on Feb 10, 2017

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