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Kalli posted:I think that going by previous trades, the expected value of the pick, and what Jimmy has shown, that trading a second for him makes sense. He has shown more then Mallett or Hoyer, and has come on faster then Cassel (who was on pace to take a record number of sacks behind a great offensive line in the first half of 2008 before being fixed). He should probably be worth a 2nd at most. But let's say for argument sake that the reports of the Bears, Browns and 49ers all showing interest are true it would be easy to see how that could turn into a low end 1st.
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Feb 8, 2017 22:01
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Jiminy Christmas! Shoes! posted:Wait, what? urlacher was barely better than briggs
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Feb 8, 2017 22:02
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Jiminy Christmas! Shoes! posted:He should probably be worth a 2nd at most. But let's say for argument sake that the reports of the Bears, Browns and 49ers all showing interest are true it would be easy to see how that could turn into a low end 1st. I don't think it's worth it for the Patriots to trade him for only a 2nd though. If Brady were 35, I expect that's what he'd command, but Brady is getting up there so you can't just pay what he's worth, you have to pay the Patriots enough to take the risk of letting him go.
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Feb 8, 2017 22:03
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mastershakeman posted:urlacher was barely better than briggs No. Your suggestion that Jay Cutler is as good as Matt Ryan is more intriguing and I would like to subscribe to your newsletter.
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Feb 8, 2017 22:05
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Jiminy Christmas! Shoes! posted:Wait, what? Alternative facts
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Feb 8, 2017 22:06
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Jiminy Christmas! Shoes! posted:No. Your suggestion that Jay Cutler is as good as Matt Ryan is more intriguing and I would like to subscribe to your newsletter. career ryan: 7.4 y/a, 4.7 td%, 2.3 int%, 265 y/g cam: 7.4 y/a, 4.6 td%, 2.7 int%, 234 y/g kaep 7.3 y/a, 4.3 td%, 1.8 int%, 177 y/g palmer 7.3 y/a, 4.7 td%, 3.0 int%, 253 y/g cutler: 7.2 y/a, 4.6 td%, 3.3 int%, 233 y/g luck: 7.2 y/a, 5.0 td%, 2.6 int%, 272 y/g eli: 7.1 y/a, 4.7 td%, 3.2 int%, 239 y/g stafford: 7.1 y/a, 4.4 td%, 2.5 int%, 278 y/g flacco: 6.9 y/a, 3.8 td%, 2.5 int%, 236 y/g smith: 6.8 y/a, 3.8 td%, 2.2 int%, 197 y/g carr: 6.5 y/a, 4.7 td%, 1.8 int%, 238 y/g here's ay/a which i dont buy as much as y/a Wilson 8.2 Brady 7.8 Ben 7.7 rivers 7.6 Brees 7.5 Ryan 7.4 kaep 7.3 cam 7.2 luck 7.0 Palmer 6.9 Stafford 6.8 cutler 6.7 tannehill 6.7 Eli 6.6 carr 6.6 flacco 6.5 Smith 6.5 Cutler isn't as good, but he's also had way worse supporting talent and way more offensive coordinator upheaval. hell, until lately ryan was captain checkdown despite having roddy and then julio for his whole career. mastershakeman fucked around with this message at 22:12 on Feb 8, 2017 |
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Feb 8, 2017 22:07
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That is a huge difference in INT %.
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Feb 8, 2017 22:09
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evilweasel posted:I don't think it's worth it for the Patriots to trade him for only a 2nd though. If Brady were 35, I expect that's what he'd command, but Brady is getting up there so you can't just pay what he's worth, you have to pay the Patriots enough to take the risk of letting him go. You can only even consider that if Brady is willing to let go if he slips, and he doesn't sound willing going by what he's said. To keep Jimmy you'd almost certainly have to franchise him for 2018 (so $21m ish), a year in which they'd owe Brady $22m or $14m in dead space if they moved on from him.
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Feb 8, 2017 22:09
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mastershakeman posted:urlacher was barely better than briggs He had a solid four or so years of truly great play. The problem is everyone treated him like he was still the same guy after he started to lose his speed, which is what made him special. Like people were still pretending he was one of the best MLBs in the NFL at the end when he was just blah.
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Feb 8, 2017 22:11
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Jiminy Christmas! Shoes! posted:That is a huge difference in INT %. Cutler throws 1 more int per 100 passes, which, unless you're tom brady , is like 2.5 -3 games worth. big deal. i also think ints aren't the end of the world especially if the alternative is a failed 3rd down & punting.
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Feb 8, 2017 22:11
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Grittybeard posted:He had a solid four or so years of truly great play. The problem is everyone treated him like he was still the same guy after he started to lose his speed, which is what made him special. Like people were still pretending he was one of the best MLBs in the NFL at the end when he was just blah. he also couldn't wrap up and got juked by brady and trucked by bettis, neither of which happened to briggs (whose sole fault was crashing that lambo)
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Feb 8, 2017 22:11
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Grittybeard posted:He had a solid four or so years of truly great play. The problem is everyone treated him like he was still the same guy after he started to lose his speed, which is what made him special. Like people were still pretending he was one of the best MLBs in the NFL at the end when he was just blah. Reminded me of the later years of Ray Lewis when the Ravens' scorekeepers were still giving him 15 tackles a game for hopping on the pile a second after the play ended.
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Feb 8, 2017 22:13
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Kalli posted:You can only even consider that if Brady is willing to let go if he slips, and he doesn't sound willing going by what he's said. Right, I keep forgetting how bad the dead cap would be even if they cut Brady next year. That said think they could sign Jimmy to a long-term contract at below franchise amounts as long as it had sufficient guarantees. I expect he'd happily collect good but not great money one year, either backing up or starting, as long as he had sufficient guarantees so he's getting paid no matter what and they have to keep him around because of the guarantees.
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Feb 8, 2017 22:27
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evilweasel posted:Right, I keep forgetting how bad the dead cap would be even if they cut Brady next year. That said think they could sign Jimmy to a long-term contract at below franchise amounts as long as it had sufficient guarantees. I expect he'd happily collect good but not great money one year, either backing up or starting, as long as he had sufficient guarantees so he's getting paid no matter what and they have to keep him around because of the guarantees. Big signing bonus with low first year salary would accomplish exactly that, which is what Brady is doing at the moment (they have the same agent). But the most likely scenario is that 2 time Super Bowl champion Jimmy G gets traded for a first and a forth to one of those teams in need of a good QB. With the trade your ceiling might be lower because you don't get the rookie contract benefits, but I'd argue that the floor is much higher because you know that Jimmy G can at least start an NFL game without embarrassing your organization, something that is not a given with a bad QB class (remember the class of '13? Don't be the guy who drafts the next EJ Manual or Geno Smith). QB is the only position that is nearly impossible to fill in free agency, especially if you are not a "win now" team that can attract aging QBs that got usurped because of injury (e.g. Manning or now Romo). And the Patriots are trading him because they already have the next great QB on the roster with Brissett.
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Feb 8, 2017 22:39
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Inside the NFL for Super Bowl LI https://vimeo.com/203068414
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Feb 8, 2017 22:59
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Alternative strategy: Eagles sign back DeSean Jackson. Draft John Ross. Wentz breaks the single season record for 20+ Yard TD's
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Feb 8, 2017 23:33
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Nobody is trading a first for Jimmy G Well maybe the Texans because Patriots Way
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Feb 8, 2017 23:37
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I know it won't happen but how hard of a hit would Houston's salary cap take if they cut Brock?
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Feb 8, 2017 23:39
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Intruder posted:Nobody is trading a first for Jimmy G I think someone's* gonna be dumb enough, honestly * someone=bears/49ers/browns/jags/jets
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Feb 8, 2017 23:41
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pats deserve it for getting their first round stolen.
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Feb 8, 2017 23:44
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a patagonian cavy posted:I think someone's* gonna be dumb enough, honestly I think drafting Hack would be a better move for the Jets than giving NE a first for Matt Cassel 2.
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Feb 8, 2017 23:44
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go go go go ROSCOE! posted:I know it won't happen but how hard of a hit would Houston's salary cap take if they cut Brock? It's a huge cap hit this year and then becomes reasonable next year.
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Feb 8, 2017 23:45
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go go go go ROSCOE! posted:I know it won't happen but how hard of a hit would Houston's salary cap take if they cut Brock? 25 million in dead cap if they cut him today, 19 million after June 1. That drops to 6 million next year, then 3 million after June 1, 2018.
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Feb 8, 2017 23:46
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go go go go ROSCOE! posted:I know it won't happen but how hard of a hit would Houston's salary cap take if they cut Brock? $6m in additional cap hit this year (or $3m if June 1st) to cut him vs keeping him a patagonian cavy posted:I think someone's* gonna be dumb enough, honestly The Jags aren't ready to cut bait on Bortles just yet I don't think, especially not for Jimmy G. Any team desperate enough to roll the dice on Jimmy is going to have too high a first round pick to be willing to give it up It'd have to be something like swapping firsts or swapping a first for a second
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Feb 8, 2017 23:46
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go go go go ROSCOE! posted:I know it won't happen but how hard of a hit would Houston's salary cap take if they cut Brock? $19m cap hit for 2017, $25m dead cap hit if they cut him. His entire base salary is guaranteed this year + $3m in signing bonus + $6m in signing bonus over the next two years. Basically there's just no reason why they won't keep him. The most sensible thing, to me, is that you draft a guy somewhere you're comfortable, and let them compete for the job, and hope the rookie is ready to take over halfway through the season. When they cut him in 2018, Osweiler will have a dead cap hit of $6m.
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Feb 8, 2017 23:47
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There are people seriously saying that the Texans should just cut him anyway to get his "losing culture" out of the locker room  The argument is that $6m isn't that much cap to eat, but... that's a pretty decent player, or could put you over the top to get a very good player where you might otherwise come up short salary-wise It's not like they have to carry four QBs if they go after one either, just cut Weeden and save ~$3m on the cap vs losing $6m by cutting Brock
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Feb 8, 2017 23:49
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How did Brock look in camp?
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Feb 8, 2017 23:50
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Nissin Cup Nudist posted:How did Brock look in camp? Him and Savage looked roughly the same during preseason
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Feb 8, 2017 23:50
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Nissin Cup Nudist posted:How did Brock look in camp? Everything was sunshine and roses until the season actually started
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Feb 8, 2017 23:50
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Wonder what kind of deal Cutler's going to command. From an on the field standpoint he'd be an ok stopgap for several teams, but he isn't really worth committing a ton of years or money to.
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Feb 8, 2017 23:51
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I'm salivating at the idea of Cutler in Houston and sad that it's not going to happen I know he's not the greatest but he's good enough to make this team scary Surely there's some kind of weird way to make the contract to minimize the cap hit this year and absorb a larger one next year. I don't know how the rules work for raises tbh, but I assume you can't just completely backload everything. Like a three year deal with a good sized bonus that's spread over the final two years instead of over all three How did the Patriots magic the cap with Revis exactly? Intruder fucked around with this message at 23:56 on Feb 8, 2017 |
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Feb 8, 2017 23:52
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Intruder posted:I'm salivating at the idea of Cutler in Houston and sad that it's not going to happen Idiotshit Houston fans would hate Smokin Jay because body language.
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Feb 8, 2017 23:54
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poo poo We need a new left tackle https://twitter.com/soldernate/status/829294169462038532
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Feb 8, 2017 23:55
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Intruder posted:I'm salivating at the idea of Cutler in Houston and sad that it's not going to happen He's also very clearly who he is, and old, so the hosed teams aren't going to be interested in him. It'd be mutually beneficial for both Cutler and the Texans to get a deal done.
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Feb 8, 2017 23:56
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Today is the 16th anniversary of Derrick Thomas' death, so let's marvel at how absurd of a player he was https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qs5oKB-jVwM Fun fact, the guy who's the Chiefs' current o-line coach is the dude who gave up 7 sacks to him in 1990 lol
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Feb 9, 2017 00:00
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And he's one of the worst OL coaches in the NFL
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Feb 9, 2017 00:01
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Kalli posted:He's also very clearly who he is, and old, so the hosed teams aren't going to be interested in him. I can't see a way the Texans can afford him unless they let some key parts go. He's not going to play for the minimum, he still has some pride Right now they have $21m in cap space. Some easy cuts I can see: Tony Bergstrom - $2.75m Brandon Weeden - $1.55m (was off on the number earlier) If they want to be truly heartless: Derek Newton - $3m Annnd.. that's about it for cuts that give them any meaningful cap room. I assume they'll cut a few $500k guys too, whatever. So that brings them to $28m in cap space Notable free agents AJ Bouye - The big one, probably $10-12m AAV Shane Lechler - He'll be back probably around $2m Ryan Griffin - They might let him walk with the way CJF broke out this season, but let's say $5m AAV Maybe Vince Wilfork? If so, probably ~$4-5m They also need to work out a long term deal with Nuk Once you factor in money for draft picks and I don't see where any signings come from TBH. They'd have to do something painful like cut Jonathan Joseph (or restructure him which could work) and/or Brian Cushing and/or Duane Brown (no way they cut him, but a restructure could be possible)
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Feb 9, 2017 00:02
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Intruder posted:Surely there's some kind of weird way to make the contract to minimize the cap hit this year and absorb a larger one next year. I don't know how the rules work for raises tbh, but I assume you can't just completely backload everything. Like a three year deal with a good sized bonus that's spread over the final two years instead of over all three Giant unpayable team option + No franchise tag clause (probably not necessary for Cutler) So say you want to pay Cutler $12m for one year, but can't afford that, instead do: Signing Bonus: $11m 2017: Base salary: $1m, SB: $5.5m, Cap hit: $6.5m 2018: Base salary: $1m, SB: $5.5m. Option Bonus: $13.5m, Cap hit: $20m or if cut: $5.5m. (of course, this means you now have $11.5m in dead money between Brock and Cutler... so maybe you instead do a 3 year deal and trust Cutler is worth it). The funniest version is the Joe Flacco special: $29m Signing bonus ($5.8m per year) 2013: $1m base: Cap hit: $6.8m 2014: $6m base: $15m option bonus picked up (add $3m per year), Cap hit: $14.8m. 2015: $4m base: $7m option bonus #2 picked up (add $1.75m per year), Cap hit: $14.5m 2016: $18m base, Cap hit: $28.5m 2017: $20.6m base, Cap hit: $31.1m 2018: $20m base, Cap hit: $24.7m Needless to say, that's why Flacco got a 3 year extension in 2016 and they can't think about moving on from him until 2020. With his extension, Joe Flacco would cost $47.3m in dead money to cut this year his cap hits are now: 2016: $22.5m 2017: $24.5m 2018: $24.5m 2019: $26.5m 2020: $28.2m 2021: $24.2m Kalli fucked around with this message at 00:14 on Feb 9, 2017 |
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Feb 9, 2017 00:04
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Kalli posted:It'd be mutually beneficial for both Cutler and the Texans to get a deal done. Yeah I was thinking Houston and Denver would be good matches for Cutler, although Denver may be planning on Lynch or Romo I guess.
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Feb 9, 2017 00:04
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mastershakeman posted:career Romo for reference is 7.9 y/a and 7.8 ay/a
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Feb 9, 2017 00:24
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