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Platystemon
Feb 13, 2012

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kindermord posted:

dropping giant bags of rocks to fix the breach didn't work too well after katrina :ohdear:

It worked at Chernobyl.


ArgumentatumE.C.T. posted:

There aren't any nuclear plants near the danger zone of this flood, are there? Gettin' Fukushima flashbacks up in here.

California has one operating commercial nuclear reactor, and it's not downstream.

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Platystemon
Feb 13, 2012

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This guy is an idiot because the dam isn't on the American River, or one of its tributaries.

Platystemon
Feb 13, 2012

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Vincent Van Goatse posted:

he's not wrong about the evacuations tho



He’s right that there isn’t imminent concern of the dam failing.

See that lake east‐northeast of Sacramento? The American River flows from that lake and joins the Sacramento River at the city of Sacramento.

Platystemon
Feb 13, 2012

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Space Crabs posted:

I think that's a matter of semantics at that point.

If the emergency spillway fails then the lake will just drain out that entire hillside and the dam itself will effectively be useless as the water will have a different outlet. It kinda doesn't matter if technically the portion labelled "Dam" hasn't breached at that point.

The difference is that hill is rock underneath and the dam is 100% dirt.

Platystemon
Feb 13, 2012

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Warm und Fuzzy posted:

Can California farmers use up all the water by planting an emergency pecan crop?

The good news is that the flood area is mostly pecan and almond orchards already.

Platystemon
Feb 13, 2012

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exploded mummy posted:

it's got a concrete core actually

Not enough to maintain structural integrity if the dirt were washed away.

The hillside will hold up fine without its dirt covering.

Platystemon
Feb 13, 2012

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Serak posted:

It's really not - if the spillway fails, there's still gonna be enough water heading downstream to kill a whole lot of people if they don't evacuate.
If they start claiming that 'only' the spillway might fail but the dam will be OK , there are certain to be people who ignore the warning

If the spillway fails, thousands of homes are flooded.

If the dam fails, the state capital gets washed away.

Platystemon
Feb 13, 2012

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I’m the world’s smallest mountain range and the world’s largest butt.

e: Also, just so we’re clear, this is what would happen if the dam were magically and instantaneously removed. No actual failure will look like this.

Platystemon fucked around with this message at 04:55 on Feb 13, 2017

Platystemon
Feb 13, 2012

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succ posted:

Public comment idgaf.



im the guy using british spelling

Platystemon
Feb 13, 2012

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EugeneJ posted:

This guy's claiming Sacramento is being evacuated soon:

https://twitter.com/MyAmerica120/status/830990800607551488

Authorities aren't going to evacuate Sacramento while simultaneously telling people to flee towards Sacramento.

Platystemon
Feb 13, 2012

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Psycho Society posted:

It sucks if you're disabled or something and don't have a car. Like what the hell do you then. Cops and poo poo better be shuttling people up hills. Make yourself useful for once

These are red county cops.

Platystemon
Feb 13, 2012

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Blind Rasputin posted:

Does that mean we are out of the woods and the spillway won't fail?

No.

It decreases the likelihood of failure in the immediate future, but there’s more rain coming and both spillways are busted.

I think they can drain the lake a little through the powerhouse, though, so that’s good (at like 20% the ordinary maximum spillway rate).

Platystemon
Feb 13, 2012

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boner confessor posted:

concrete chunks and crap from the busted spillway has clogged up the main outlets so they cant use the powerhouse

I suggested:

Platystemon posted:

Use those firefighting helicopter buckets, but filled with quick‐set concrete instead of flame retardant.

on Wednesday, so I will now use my powers of prognostication to predict the use of explosives to clear the channel.

There’s been a shitload seismic modelling done on that dam in particular, so the experts ought to know if it’s safe or not. I don’t know off‐hand, though.

Platystemon
Feb 13, 2012

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Blind Rasputin posted:

News stream I'm watching said there is, "an evacuation center at 221 E YOLO street."

That has got to be a loving troll joke.

Nah, it’s a county.

Platystemon
Feb 13, 2012

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It would be so insulting to get run over by one of these.

Platystemon
Feb 13, 2012

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From Wednesday:

quote:

The emergency spillway, which has never been used, is designed for the scenario of the “biggest flood that any overgenerous engineer could ever dream of coming through that system with a full reservoir,” said Lund of UC Davis. The flows would be unregulated, meaning the state wouldn’t have any control over how much water pours down the emergency spillway, Lund said.

What’s more, while the top of that secondary spillway is concrete, the main structure is unlined and releasing water could cause erosion, Gutierrez said.

That engineer didn’t have a very good imagination.

Platystemon
Feb 13, 2012

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Guy Goodbody posted:

The alternative is to just not have an emergency spillway, so if the dam breaks the dam breaks and everyone dies

You have to have an emergency spillway, but you don’t have to have one ‘subject to "catastrophic damage" when used as intended.’

In about thirty hours it went from “this is the first time water has ever trickled over” to “GET OUT WHILE YOU STILL CAN”.

And it did this in far from worst‐case weather.

An emergency spillway ought to have had the integrity to last days of sustained downpour.

Platystemon
Feb 13, 2012

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Guy Goodbody posted:

Do you guys have any idea how much more expensive that would've been?

About as expensive as the normal spillway,

less expensive than the property damage and disruption caused by not building it.

Platystemon
Feb 13, 2012

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Guy Goodbody posted:

I'm pretty sure an actual concrete spillway would've been more expensive than a dirt spillway.

They built one actual concrete spillway. It’s the one with the gaping hole in it.

Platystemon
Feb 13, 2012

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Node posted:

Does this flood have the potential to damage the Yorba Linda Water District? This is extremely important.

No.

Platystemon
Feb 13, 2012

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The latent heat of a million acre‐feet of water is only three exajoules.

That’s only like seven Tsar Bombas. We could evaporate the water and make it Nevada’s problem.

Michael Bay, are you listening?

Platystemon
Feb 13, 2012

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Ein cooler Typ posted:

how weak do you have to be to get killed by water anyway

quote:

Nothing in the world
is as soft and yielding as water.
Yet for dissolving the hard and inflexible,
nothing can surpass it.

The soft overcomes the hard;
the gentle overcomes the rigid.
Everyone knows this is true,
but few can put it into practice.

—Lao Tzu, Tao Te Ching ch. 78

Platystemon
Feb 13, 2012

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Your Taint posted:

So what's the latest? Is this thing gonna blow or is it hopefully receeding?

It could fail at any time, but the risk isn’t as high as it was Sunday.

The danger won’t pass till the rain stops and the lake level drops.

Platystemon
Feb 13, 2012

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It’s cheaper to just buy the alfalfa growers’ water, but cities aren’t actually that desperate. :ssh:

Platystemon
Feb 13, 2012

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guidoanselmi posted:

Hi thread, I've been working with FEMA and CA DWR on this the past week on assessing the situation. There's been a steady downgrading of potential rain predictions which, possibly in conjunction with repair work (I have no idea on that front beyond public news), have made authorities confident enough to lift the order.

One thing I've been busy trying to setup is radar imaging that can produce ground deformation maps. We typically use this for earthquakes but it makes sense for structural integrity in this case. Hopefully in a few days I can post some ground deformation maps for the thread when this guy goes overhead.

e: Wow, I can't stop working even on the forums.

Keep up the good work.

:yeah:

Platystemon
Feb 13, 2012

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ZHamburglar posted:

Please tell Californians that Texas is also terrible and it is riddled with guns and Republicans.

But that one is actually true…

Platystemon
Feb 13, 2012

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The California hate in this topic is misplaced.

There isn’t a single $2 k/ 1 bedroom apartment in the entire area that was evacuated.

The median income in Oroville (right under the dam, pop. 16,260) is $36,581.

That figure for Yuba City (larger city downstream, pop. 65,416) is $50,494.

Check out the top employers, too: Oroville | Yuba City

Real fart‐huffing Hollywood types. :jerkbag:

Platystemon
Feb 13, 2012

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That’s the weather in San Francisco, which is 250 km in the wrong direction.

The forecast is actually worse up there.

This is more like it.

Platystemon
Feb 13, 2012

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It’s a good thing that the “let’s try the emergency spillway for the first time in the dam’s history” experiment didn’t occur when inflows were particularly high.

Platystemon
Feb 13, 2012

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The_Franz posted:

living in the cheap part of town i see. the average in sf is up to $3.5k for a 1 bedroom

Even the Tenderloin is up to $2.3 k according to a recent map in the Politically Loaded Maps thread.

Platystemon
Feb 13, 2012

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ArgumentatumE.C.T. posted:

I was really jonesing for California's Katrina, though. :sigh:

That’ll be the 2020 quake.

Platystemon
Feb 13, 2012

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Space Crabs posted:

That would be nothing like Katrina.

If a serious earthquake hits LA and harms a celebrity it will be portrayed worse than the holocaust with a new national holiday and nonstop 24/7 news coverage for the next five years.

You’re not wrong.

Think of how long the topic of :airquote: Hurricane :airquote: Sandy stayed around.

Platystemon
Feb 13, 2012

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Mad Wack posted:

is this still happening or what?

Probably not but there’s an outside chance it happens any time through April if the literal perfect storm hits.

Platystemon
Feb 13, 2012

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Duzzy Funlop posted:

And during those 4 days, they never increased the throughput of the main spillway, keeping it below 40-50k cfs in order to minimize erosion.

To think they could have just run the main spillway full blast and avoided incurring a gazillion dollars in repairs of the emergency spillway and the evacuation of 150k people. :lol:

Yeah but the the emergency spillway blows and needed to be replaced wholesale anyway. Now there’s incontrovertible proof of that.

The evacuation costs could have been avoided, though.

Platystemon
Feb 13, 2012

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Ill Peripheral posted:

And the very close call with the brutal water murder of thousands downstream. I remember when they called the evacuation, they thought the spillway was going to fail within an hour, which was nowhere near enough time.

I want to know if there was any consideration of “this is one of the less dangerous times to uses the untested emergency spillway” or if it was all luck.

Platystemon
Feb 13, 2012

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Javid posted:

If a 1.8 did literally anything to that dam it would've collapsed long, long ago.

Seismologists aren’t as smart as meteorologists.

There are no small hurricanes. If you have something that’s kind of like a hurricane but puny, it’s called a “tropical storm”.

Seismologists should have decided “it’s only an earthquake if it’s at least 5.0” and then stuck to it.

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Platystemon
Feb 13, 2012

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ArgumentatumE.C.T. posted:

They have to tell crowds at stadiums to only clap along to We Will Rock You, because if they stomp it could be dangerous.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hr3HTkkpvtU

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