Register a SA Forums Account here!
JOINING THE SA FORUMS WILL REMOVE THIS BIG AD, THE ANNOYING UNDERLINED ADS, AND STUPID INTERSTITIAL ADS!!!

You can: log in, read the tech support FAQ, or request your lost password. This dumb message (and those ads) will appear on every screen until you register! Get rid of this crap by registering your own SA Forums Account and joining roughly 150,000 Goons, for the one-time price of $9.95! We charge money because it costs us money per month for bills, and since we don't believe in showing ads to our users, we try to make the money back through forum registrations.
 
  • Locked thread
Kalli
Jun 2, 2001



There's a ton of teams with a ton of cap space and not that many good free agents to go around.

Gonna be a whole lot of overpaying going on.

Adbot
ADBOT LOVES YOU

Kalli
Jun 2, 2001



The Patriots have a ton of Free agents, many of which who will leave and get paid, so I figure I'd run them down:

In descending importance:

1) Dont'a Hightower ILB, Age 26. One of the best non-pass rushing focused linebackers in football, extremely versatile, and has made game saving plays in two separate superbowls. He's going to get a Kuechly sized contract most likely. Has some health issues, but is absolutely an excellent, pro-bowl caliber player. Should be paid like a top non-pass rushing LB, and will be.

2) Malcolm Butler, CB, 26. He'd be the top corner on the market, but he's a RFA, so will almost certainly be with the Patriots next year. He's not some amazing shut down corner, but he's a good 2nd tier guy who would likely end up paid like a top tier guy if he made it to FA.

3) Logan Ryan, CB, 26. He's an odd guy, simultaneously overrated and underrated depending on who you talk to, as he's typically a heavily targeted player in the secondary, but is an extremely versatile player who is a very good second cornerback. Likely to leave and be paid like a #1 corner, and that would be a mistake, but he should probably be near the top of the #2's.

4) Martellus Bennett, TE, 30. A very solid tight end looking to cash in on his last chance for a money deal. Well rounded, good blocker, good receiver and despite battling leg injuries all year, had 66 receptions / 800 yards / 7 TD's. Shouldn't be paid like the top TE's, but should be looking at a realistically 3 year deal that puts him around the bottom of the top 5.

5) Alan Branch, DT, 32. An aging run stuffer coming off a very good season. He should fetch a contract a modest bit higher then the Vince Wilfork Texans' deal. He's bounced around the league a bit over the years, but is exactly the kind of guy you want clogging the middle on run downs.

6) Sebastian Vollmer, RT, 32. Suffered a back injury in the preseason and missed the year. he's a very good RT when healthy, but he's 32 and has had recurring back injuries. The Patriots no longer need him since Marcus Cannon took his job, but he's an intriguing option for a tackle starved league. He's an awful LT, don't try him there, but he should fetch a SHORT moderately high paying deal if he wishes to continue to play.

7) Jabaal Sheard, DE, 27. Picked up from the Browns three years ago on a ~$5m per deal and was a very good rotational piece his first two years, mostly subbing in across from Chandler Jones or coming in as an extra rusher. After that, they traded Chandler Jones thinking Sheard could play a larger role and he could not. For teams that want a rotational pass rusher with solid production, he's a good option.

8) Chris Long, DE, 31. Hey, you know how the Patriots' pass rush kinda sucked this year? Chris Long played a lot. He's more or less cooked, but he's probably capable of being a modestly productive sub pass rusher still.

9) LeGarratte Blount, RB, 30. A giant bruising RB like they used to make back in the 90's. He's not particularly good until the second half when you want to grind the opposing defense into dust while nursing a two score lead. He's a head case (just ask Pittsburgh.. or Tampa), so will probably just re-sign with the Pats for the last few years he has.

10) James Develin, FB, 28. He's a fullback. A pretty good one, that catches very few passes and never carries the ball. A useful piece that no one pays much or expects much from.

11) Duron Harmon, SS, 26. Nickel safety, not a particularly good one, also plays ST. The definition of depth.

12) Michael Floyd, WR, 27. Crashed and burned heavily this year. Had a couple of good plays against the Dolphins in week 17, but will definitely need to sign a prove it deal and hope to hit free agency in 1-2 years as the player he was before 2016.

13) Barkevious Mingo, LB, 26. ST guy, no good as even a sub on D. Will probably make a living for a few more years ruining his body doing that, then be done.

14) Brandon Bolden, RB, 27. See above

15) Cameron Fleming, T, 24. An extremely bad tackle who is a RFA and probably won't be tendered. He's a camp body for whomever needs. Don't let him actually start or your QB will die.

The Patriots are most likely to focus on signing Butler, Hightower and Branch of the top guys, along with Blount, Develin and maybe some of the other cheap guys on the low end.

Kalli
Jun 2, 2001



Jiminy Christmas! Shoes! posted:

I can definitely see them rolling the dice on Floyd with a low risk prove it deal full of incentives.

Blount's agent needs to tell him to shut up. Dude has publicly committed to return to the Patriots to the point where he's going to end up with a Teddy Bruschi contract.

Bruschi's contract was hella stupid for awhile at like a rolling series of $2m per year deals.

I don't think Blount has broken $1m yet with the Pats, heh.

Kalli
Jun 2, 2001



fsif posted:

Never has the name metric had such a poor showing post-draft.

Seriously. Like this guy was significantly worse in the little time he played / preseason then Shea McClellin.

But if you want a dude who can play ST, he's a fine body.

Kalli
Jun 2, 2001



I don't know if I posted that or wrote it then deleted it a few days ago, but I said or meant to say that cutler is exactly the kind of guy the Jets FO/ coaches would go get to try and save their jobs.

Kalli
Jun 2, 2001



sean10mm posted:

I'm always amused at how much angst Cutler causes wherever he goes. He's been exactly the same player his entire career, and his efficiency stats always hang around the league average +/- a small margin, but everyone gets super outraged that he's not something different from what he's always been.

I think it's because, especially earlier in his career he'd flash and show you some really impressive poo poo.

And then he'd shrug as he jogs to the sideline after whipping a pass right to an underneath LB.

And you'd sit there thinking, someday he'll read that properly and then he'll be like, I dunno, Carson Palmer good.

Kalli
Jun 2, 2001



An above average starting QB is worth the world. An average or below one is worth next to nothing.

To win a Superbowl you just need so many things to go right, and the worse your QB, the more and faster those things that need to go right stack up. That's what makes a QB like Jay Cutler so relatively worthless now. He used to be an average QB who could iron out the flaws in his game and step up, but now he's in his mid 30's and never did, so he's now just a stopgap or hail mary.

--------------------

I don't see a team trading a first for Jimmy because we know what his college career was worth: A late 2nd round pick. Now you trade 3 years of dirt cheap contract for 3 years of age, some mediocre preseason and cleanup snaps starts and 1.5 healthy games this year where he looked like a capable NFL quarterback. Is that worth upgrading a late 2nd to a first? I find that a hard argument to buy.

Kalli
Jun 2, 2001



mastershakeman posted:

yet if cutler had been on the texans this year maybe they win the superbowl, ala flacco w/ the ravens or eli and giants. i used to think a great QB was needed but you just need 3 good games in a row (which, to be fair, is something cutler seems incapable of doing despite him being statistically better than flacco and eli overall)

Yeah, and one of the things that didn't go right for the Texans was they bet wrong on a backup of a great QB, and whoops, now their salary cap is hosed for two years.

Like the Raiders this year were probably the second best team in the AFC, and had no chance to win the superbowl because the best pass blocking oline in footbal collapsed at the wrong moment and Derek Carr died a few weeks before the playoffs started.

Hell, a significant chunk of why the Falcons lost the Superbowl was because their RT and a RB got injured in the first half and then the backups hosed up their blocking assignment on a play, and Ryan gets strip sacked as he's trying to throw a deep bomb to a wide open receiver.

Kalli
Jun 2, 2001



Okung is the guy I use when explaining to people why you don't sign with a contender for no money to win a championship.

Kalli
Jun 2, 2001



I could see an outside case for the Jaguars where they have a chunk of talent being held back by their QB, but uh.... the 49ers? The Browns have a better roster then the 49ers right now.

Kalli
Jun 2, 2001



Ehud posted:

why are we on this list

Nobody believes in the Tann man.

He should use that as motivation.

Kalli
Jun 2, 2001



Going from Alex Smith to Tony Romo seems like a pretty dangerous risk.

Smith is an average starting QB, but he's the definition of reliable, in a system and with talent that he can succeed well with.

Going all in on Romo could easily be an upgrade... or an upgrade for 3 games before he's broken in half. Seems like the kind of thing you do if you have a much worse QB then Alex Smith.

Kalli
Jun 2, 2001



A pretty good 30 year old run stuffer who missed like half of last year with a calf injury.

Kalli
Jun 2, 2001



AP is old, expensive and missed two of the last three seasons with injury. Maybe he's got a good year left in him, but older running backs have a terrible history, and he isn't a good receiving option, so he can't even even give you those like LdT on the Jets years.

I don't know what he'll be offered, but I think for most teams in the league the better option would be using a mid/late first or 2nd day pick on a running back if they need one.

Kalli
Jun 2, 2001



The most Jets move will be Jay Cutler.

Kalli
Jun 2, 2001



QB predictions for next year:

Bills & Washington - Keep Tyrod / Cousins

Jets - Sign Cutler in a baffling/desperate/Jetsy attempt to keep their jobs.

Texans - Draft a guy to compete with Osweiler

Jaguars - Ride the Bortles.

Broncos - Sign Romo

Bears/49ers - One of them trades for Jimmy, the other drafts a guy. Both end up disappointed.

Browns - Draft a guy. Probably at #12.

Kalli
Jun 2, 2001



I have no idea what the market for AP will be. He's coming off injury, old, not a factor as a receiver....

But he's AP. How much would you pay for Emmitt Smith's Arizona Cardinal years?

Kalli
Jun 2, 2001



CyberPingu posted:

Oh god he's gonna end up in New England for the ring chase on a one year deal

I mean christ Belichick squeezed 1800/yds out of a near broken Corey Dillon

Corey Dillon's age 30 year was his awesome one in New England.

He was there for two more lackluster, nagging injury years.

fishing with the fam posted:

The dude is gonna be 32 at the start of the next season. The history of RBs over 32 is pretty bleak unless your name is Emmitt Smith.

Even then, from 32 on, Emmitt put up:

32: 1021 at 3.9 YPC
33: 975 at 3.8
34: <injured>
35: 937 at 3.5

How much is that really worth?

To be sacriligious, LeGarratte Blount will probably cost < $2m and will be 31 coming off a year where he put up:

30: 1161 at 3.9 YPC

Kalli
Jun 2, 2001



No Butt Stuff posted:

you really wanna prove the defense can drag anyone into the playoffs

The Broncos offensive line is a mess right now so that'd just be handing Romo a blindfold and a cigarette.

Kalli
Jun 2, 2001



DariusLikewise posted:

The only way that AP will be a Patriot is if he will take >2 million a year. No way Bill is tying up more than that on a single running back.

If AP was two years younger I bet they'd spend real money on him, but not as he is now.

Hell, I'm sitting here weighting if I'd rather have Blount or AP next year and that feels like insane sacrilege. I'd risk it on AP if the money was similar, but mannn, it's tough to move on from a (slightly) younger guy who produced late in the year like Blount did for that role.

Kalli
Jun 2, 2001



Hightower loving owns and any team should be glad to have him. He's made game saving ridiculous plays in the last two superbowls. He stopped Marshawn Lynch at the goal line to setup the Butler int play and had the strip sack on Matt Ryan.

I bet he signs for an incredible amount of money in Cleveland.

Kalli
Jun 2, 2001



Hightower will not be $8m per year, he will likely be around or a bit north of Kuechly's $12m a year (he's not quite as good as Kuechly, but that's also a 2 year old contract).

Kalli
Jun 2, 2001



warcrimes posted:

I remember everyone saying that it was okay to get rid of Jones because they had to save money to re-sign Collins and Hightower. LMAO

I'd complain but I know they're going to spend the money and won the Superbowl, so whatever, it'll work out.

Kalli
Jun 2, 2001



Jared Odrick visited the Patriots and passed a physical.

That could be cool.

Kalli
Jun 2, 2001



Turns out Revis has offset language in his contract, so they should be able to recoup a few million from the guarantees they owe him still.

Kalli
Jun 2, 2001



Jairus Byrd - 31
Jamaal Charles - 31
Darrelle Revis - 32
Adrian Peterson - 32

Imagine saying all these guys would be shot by now 3 years ago.

Kalli
Jun 2, 2001



Blitz7x posted:

What the hell happened to Bryd?

When he signed with the Saints he got severely injured like immediately and never recovered.

Kalli
Jun 2, 2001



I think trading a second for Jimmy makes sense.

I also think this is total posturing and he'll be moved before the draft.

Kalli
Jun 2, 2001



Kaepernick's problem isn't with cities, it's with owners // front office people.

evilweasel posted:

I mean there's zero chance they don't get an offer in the second round minimum. But an offer that low, they can tag and trade him after 2017 so that whoever they trade him to controls him for a year and can sign him to a deal then and get something similar.

The Patriots can't tag and trade him next year. Jimmy could simply sign the tag, say he won't sign an extension anywhere he's traded to and now the Patriots have an untradable $20m backup who is a guaranteed free agent the next year. That's a worse dead money situation then Aaron Hernandez was.

Jimmy's value is significantly diminished if not traded this year, as this is his last cheap year you can use as part of an extension.

Kalli
Jun 2, 2001



corn on the cop posted:

Do the niners realize they won't be competitive for several years

Yeah, but they still need to fill a gigantic number of holes on their roster, and have a ton of cap space, so overpaying guys is fine as long as they can escape the contracts in ~3 years.

Like, look at the 49ers, they're basically missing all of the expensive guys you normally have on a roster, those 5th-9th year veterans on that big fat contract riding out the peaks of their careers. It's like the Raiders a few years ago when they splurged on a ton of dudes and un-hosed their roster.

Presumably they're getting a new QB some way or another, and sticking them on an offense with like 1 good lineman and an okay running back and garbage WR's will just ruin him, so patch that up however you can and hopefully Shanahan can start working his magic.

Kalli
Jun 2, 2001



latinotwink1997 posted:

Countdown to the league demanding a minimum pay so winning teams like the Patriots can't get superior talent for pennies while everyone else pays out the rear end.

There is a minimum pay, and Brady isn't being paid, $1m this year, that's just his base pay.

Because of the suspension, Brady redid his contract last year, and lowered the base pay for 2016/2107 to $1m with a $28m signing bonus. So he's being paid $15m a year, he just got almost all of it upfront.

Kalli
Jun 2, 2001



Whatever Brady is doing works and everyone should clearly be doing it.

Kalli
Jun 2, 2001



Chris Long says mission accomplished, I want to actually hit QB's again and won't re-sign with the Pats:



Considering his lack of production, he certainly thinks he was something that wasn't shown last year. Good dude, wish him the best.

Kalli
Jun 2, 2001



Yeah, good locker room guy. He didn't have much push at all this year, but he certainly thinks that was due to how the Pats were using him then due to his age.

He could be right, the Pats sure as gently caress spent a ton of the year rushing 3 guys, but that could also be because Chris Long was a starting pass rusher... so who knows.

Either way, I hope he goes somewhere and a bunch of sacks, good dude.

Kalli
Jun 2, 2001



Mike Glennon is the guy you sign to eat 6 games before whomever you draft in the 2nd round takes over.

Kalli
Jun 2, 2001



latinotwink1997 posted:

So $15m for the GOAT while Andrew luck gets nearly $25m? That's $10m extra they have for paying other players while still having the GOAT. I don't know how they'd enforce something like that, but it does seem to give an advantage to them.

A stronger union would heavily lean on players to not take these deals. the NFLPA is not a strong union.

Beats the 80's when the NFL paid off the top QB's to union bust.

Kalli
Jun 2, 2001




.... that can't be real.

... Mike Glennon? Really?

Kalli
Jun 2, 2001



Seems weird for the Jets to keep the coaching/front office staff, and also purge the roster.

I mean, you should give a coach more then two years, and their roster has enough problems that a rebuild is necessary, just I hope the staff actually gets a chance to rebuild the roster or they're just jerking them around to end up with a bunch of players the next coach wants to get rid of.

Kalli
Jun 2, 2001



My thinkpiece on why Bill Romanowski's ancestors fought Mandingo fights in blackface:

Adbot
ADBOT LOVES YOU

Kalli
Jun 2, 2001



so I haven't been playing attention, why are the Saints trading him anyway?

  • Locked thread