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Looten Plunder posted:Wow, you are so much lower on Malcolm than me. He's in the perfect spot this season. Yeah, this feels like the same problem I had with Caramoan when it aired and why I was in constant fights with folks. Malcolm was "stupid" for trying to get out from under the bottom of his alliance while Andrea was "smart" for laying back and getting picked off? I just see it the opposite. It didn't work for Malcolm, and a lot of that can fall on Corinne being an idiot. But I don't think he was wrong to not be content to just "let Phillip Sheppard be Phillip Sheppard" and wait for his alliance to get around to cutting him sooner rather than later. The basic inevitable story of that season and why I hated it so much. Malcolm was the only one trying to change that. That being said he's always seemed to lack that last bit of good strategic judgment necessary to win and I think he'll never not be a big target and with all of the other "alpha males" being older he won't be able to hide. I also feel a slight disagreement with the OP about Zeke. I'm kind of cold on his return. I mean, I'm happy to see him come back and see if he can play well and shake off that arrogance he got towards the end of his season. But I worry that he showed his whole game and hasn't had enough time to reflect on it or shake it. I feel like he'll be the guy who comes in and says "I overplayed last season so I need to relax this season" and then immediately over play himself out pre-merge. Great OP, slight subjective disagreements aside. Murmur Twin posted:Yeah, even if Sandra makes it out of the pre-merge game I feel like it's going to be really hard for her to convince anyone to go up against her in an FTC. Yeah, I think Sandra can survive the early stage on a combination of social game and not being a physical threat. Its going to be that end game when people are thinking about FTC matchups which she'll have to pull off a miracle to survive. STAC Goat fucked around with this message at 02:19 on Feb 25, 2017 |
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Feb 25, 2017 02:16
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Well I guess I was being too brief. I think she can survive the initial "she's a winner, get her out!" reaction because she's a savvy enough social player to make friends and allies and a weak enough physical player that people she can't win over can be convinced to wait on her because they can get her later. Then when the merge comes the focus tends to move towards individual threats and again, she can probably skirt by over bigger physical immunity threats if she makes the right moves. But then when its down to like Final 8-5 that's when I don't know how she can survive since FTC matchups are so close and obvious at that stage.
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Feb 25, 2017 02:52
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But the problem with a super big alliance is it only benefits you if you're on the inner circle that's riding it out. That was Andrea's mistake. She assumed she was one of the favored parties because she talked game with Cochran and Dawn and Phillip, but when Cochran made his move to turn them on her she had no one to turn to. Malcolm at the very least recognized that he had no real inner circle of the big alliance he could count on so he tried to create one. The problem was he trusted Corinne and rather than waiting for the moment to strike like he wanted she jumped the gun and tipped off the "inner circle" to the coming coup. It didn't work, but I respect what Malcolm was doing and understand his logic. Maybe if he had done nothing things would have worked out better, but I'm not sure I think "hope for the best" is ever really a sound strategy, especially if you're a player like Malcolm likely to be targeted sooner or later. That was my entire problem with Caramoan and Spies-R-Us. It was 12 people who felt safe riding the big alliance because the leader was an obvious goat and they all seemed content that they'd be on the right side of the numbers when they widdled down. But Malcolm and Cochran seemed to be the only two actively doing anything to try and make that work. I mean, Andrea reached out to Eddie but that seemed more personal than strategic and it ultimately hurt her. I also admit I don't have a GREAT memory of this season so I could be off about stuff or missing something Andrea did. But I compare it in my head to One World's cast that just "went along to get along" but with no Kim to marvel at. STAC Goat fucked around with this message at 03:15 on Feb 25, 2017 |
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Feb 25, 2017 03:13
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My memory is that Malcolm simply identified Corinne as the other obvious member of the Vets tribe who was outside Phillip's inner circle. He knew/thought he couldn't turn Andrea, Cochran, or Brenda so he went for Corinne and the newbies with the idea that Dawn and Erik could be roped in once the numbers were safe. Corinne jumped the gun and told Dawn which tipped off the inner circle to move against Malcolm/Corinne while they still had the numbers. I think. Like I said, I could be off. So I don't remember him thinking Corinne was his ideal strategic partner, just the person in the right position to get on his side (and maybe a great goat). I feel like I specifically remember Phillip not liking Malcolm and keeping him on the outside of his inner circle. But even if that's not the case Malcolm's biggest mistake there is simply misreading what the crazy person everyone was content to let run the show thought of him as an ally or threat. I don't have a problem with Andrea's first move being "Let Phillip be Phillip." Obviously that was Cochran's first move too. My problem with Andrea is I have no idea what her second move was supposed to be. If it was to trust Cochran and Dawn not to turn on her and to take her to the end then she hosed up there. If it was to build a side group that could pull off a coup then it didn't make TV. Andrea seemed to just be waiting, and I have no idea for what.
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Feb 25, 2017 03:42
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Yeah, I'm not 100% confident of what I'm saying but I'll be damned if I slog through that again to see if I missed some subtle part of Andrea's game or Malcolm's motivations for working with Corinne.
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Feb 25, 2017 03:45
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Professor Shark posted:Can someone explain the letter? I've seen it posted before, but didn't watch that season JT and the Heroes had this theory that since the Villains kept voting out men that the tribe was being controlled by a women's alliance. In reality Russell and Parvati were basically running the tribe, but the Heroes had no idea what kind of player Russell was and assumed he was at the mercy of the women. Getting close to the merge the Heroes were down in numbers and know they'd be Pagonged so JT decided to take his idol and give it to Russell with a note that he should use it to save himself and then unite with them in the merge. He managed to pass this to Russell in the challenge and when Russell found it he had the laugh of his life. He shared it with Parvatti who then took up dramatic readings of it the letter to all the Villains as they laughed maniacally at JT's foolishness. In the big picture it was just a desperate gambit move to avoid a Pagonging and wasn't THAT illogical, especially compared to a move like Erik's classic Black Widow one. But the way it played out with how earnest JT's letter was and how comically villainous Russell and Parvatti were turned it into this hilarious example of "evil will always triumph over good because good is stupid." Ironically I'm pretty sure Parvatti eventually uses that idol with her own idol to screw over Russell to save the women. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v_pxPqtX4po I always felt like the really worse move was post merge when Sandra tried to flip to the heroes to get rid of Russell but Candice or whoever was too stupid to do it and instead flipped to Russell and Parvatti's side only to get picked off by them like a week later. Like, the JT thing is hilarious but if he had kept the idol it probably wouldn't have stopped the Pagonging. Which was the entire reason the Heroes all decided the risk was worth it. STAC Goat fucked around with this message at 01:52 on Feb 26, 2017 |
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Feb 26, 2017 01:42
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mancalamania posted:This was a great summary, but there are 3 important details left out: Of course they made the switch AFTER the won the last tribal immunity so JT should have called an audible and not given Russell the idol knowing they had just evened the odds at 5-5. But obviously JT wasn't the quickest thinking player and they seemed to commit to the idea when they were at 6-5 or 7-5. mancalamania posted:-They could have flipped Sandra to their side to make it 6-4, who TRIED to flip to the Heroes at the merge and warn them that Russell was playing them, and they all thought that Sandra was lying to them and refused to let her flip to save them (actually, I think Rupert was the only one who half-believed Sandra, but no one believed Rupert either). And justifiably she was the next person voted out. mancalamania posted:-The exact details of how that merge vote played out are somewhat complicated, but the short version was that the idol that J.T. gave Russell was one of two idols played by Parvati at the merge, sending J.T. out 5-0. So in a sense, his own idol is exactly what sent him home. STAC Goat fucked around with this message at 01:28 on Feb 28, 2017 |
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Feb 28, 2017 01:25
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I like it. There's some potential unintended consequences in accidental ties but I 100% agree that vote splits had become a way too common and abused tool and I applaud them trying to mix it up. Especially with the vets.
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Mar 1, 2017 06:06
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Ciera feels like that player who is like unthreatening in challenges but competent enough that players are likely to let her float through but she overstrategizes a little so someone will get spooked and target her if she doesn't pull something together quick.
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Mar 1, 2017 23:26
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We should remember that Caleb is a moron and a complete and total narcissist. It will be interesting to see if we get more of Big Brother Caleb this time around. The odds of him ending up in the same kind of wonderful narrative place he had the first time around seem slim and we could easily get his full on insane villainy that would shock the gently caress out of Survivor fans. edit: And of course Debbie says that Cirie isn't a game changer. And Cirie wins me over by naming Andrea. And Hali wins me over by naming herself. STAC Goat fucked around with this message at 23:59 on Mar 1, 2017 |
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Mar 1, 2017 23:54
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Propaganda Machine posted:Did you even see Kaoh Rong? Getting married really cold him out. Like, he probably won't creepily become obsessed with a random woman but a big part of his BB character was him being utterly deluded about how awesome he was, being hyper competitive, and making up absurd lies about himself. None of that ever happened on Survivor but he never saw a Tribal council, never really played the game, and just saw his edit focused on bonding with Tai and then beast moding his way into heat exhaustion. So I'm curious if he'll have to play more or if he doesn't have such a positive story like the Tai thing if his other personality traits will come out more. It's totally possible he's had a dramatic personality change since BB but it also seems possible that he was just never in the position to show that stuff his first time around.
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Mar 3, 2017 04:13
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I would not be at all surprised to see a Caleb/Culpeper bromance/teamup. ApplesandOranges posted:According to his interview Caleb thinks Sandra shouldn't have won HvV over Russell, so I'm going to say he's either a cautious Poison or he really doesn't know how to play the game. This is the BB Caleb I half expect to emerge. The guy who thinks it's all about muscle and glory so can't understand why a Sandra or Cirie is a threat or player. We never saw any of this in his first season because he wasnt around long enough to get into the game. Then question is if hes still a hilarious pathological liar and if there's any chance of that making air, or will they leave it to Debbie's gimmick?
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Mar 3, 2017 18:17
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I enjoy returning player seasons at least partly because it eliminates that awkward first couple of weeks where I can't tell people apart and can't keep the tribes or alliances straight. A returning player season is basically like jumping in on the 3rd or 4th season when Im getting caught up. Of course I pay no attention outside of this thread to the pre-season hype and interviews and stuff so a lot of people seem to already have impressions of first timers when I tend to have no idea going in.
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Mar 9, 2017 01:09
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I don't care about the name and I never care about the gimmick. I always find it dumb when people complain a lot about that when we all know there's just going to be a tribe swap 3 or 4 weeks in that kills the gimmick. So just ignore the name. Who besides Jeff Probst cares if Zeke wasn't a 'gamechanger?"
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Mar 9, 2017 02:03
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The thing is, the Orange tribe didn't lose that challenge because of Sandra. They lost it because two of their strongest players Malcolm and Michaela were standing on the beach watching Varner, Hali, and Aubrey be useless. They lost because afterwards Caleb was saying "Jeff undersold how heavy that thing was" because apparently no one on the tribe anticipated that a 25 foot sand bag soaked with water would be really, really heavy and hard to get over a big rear end fence. Some tribes lose because they're physically weak. Some tribes lose because they're a bunch of idiots and selfish schemers who can't play team sports. Jeff: Sandra, why is no one targeting you? You should be the top target? Sandra: Shh, Jeff. These fools love me! If anyone besides Sandra had yelled "STILL THE QUEEN!" in Tribal I would say they killed themselves. But I kind of think it might not affect Sandra at all. Sandra's just a perfect set of natural Survivor skills. She's charming enough that people can't even help but laugh when she's boasting about good she is. She's clever enough to play the game but doesn't get bogged down in over strategy and sketch people out. She's adaptable to whatever the game throws at her because the only plan she's really committed to is her own self preservation. And she doesn't really dick around. Tony's a paranoid nutbag threat so he's gotta go. I still would be shocked if she survives past that merge "ok, time to take out the threats" phase but there's no real rational reason why she should have survived two Tribals without a single vote except that she's preternaturally good at this game. On the flip side Ciera is not made for this game because she has no chill and can't seem to just play her own game instead of worrying about what her mom or ex tribe mates would think or do. She's got enough strategic sense that maybe it would have been different if she had played without baggage, but if three tries you can't shake that baggage your time's up. I'm a little sad Tony self destructed so quickly. I don't like him but there was a world of potential awesomeness in his war with Sandra. The fact that it took like five hours for him to ruin that isn't surprising, though. And he was clearly on the way to making Caleb his mindless puppy which had all kinds of comedy potential. And I bet Aubrey would have had a breakdown trying to manage an alliance with him. And the only joy I was going to get from Debbie was to see if she and Tony met and determined if they were soul mates or mortal enemies. Stupid insane Tony blowing it all in like 6 days. For some reason middle aged dad bod JT and Ozzy cracks me up endlessly. I love Michaela but she's got that "no chill" problem too. And Varner seems like he's working himself into a tizzy early. I'm curious to see how Aubrey adjusts to Sandra and Tony driving her initial alliance into bits. Hali seems to only be able to speak in cliches. Its odd. This is why I dig returning player seasons. Off and running and I'm already invested in so many people and stories instead of just saying "uhhh... I think that lady on that tribe?" Pinterest Mom posted:We know Malcolm/Caleb have to have been somewhat in the driver's seat, because they would've had to go back to Tony and told him "Sandra isn't happening, but we can do Aubry" with the intent of weakening Tony by having his closest ally eat it if there was an idol play. They had no real power. Varner and Michaela were the swing votes who were flirting with flipping things to Tony's side. We saw Sandra and Co bring Malcolm and Caleb in on their plan, after that they either had to get on board or flip someone. All we missed was Varner/Michaela making their decision and filling in the interested parties, and then them feeding Tony a story. I assume they simply told him Aubrey was the target and he had no other options. Well, that and Aubrey getting filled in because she was totally out of the loop according to the edit. Presumably someone just told her "Vote Tony, he's going home, you're safe."
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Mar 10, 2017 07:34
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Yeah, Zeke overplayed in his first season and the idea of being with a bunch of vets he admires/respects/fears probably doesn't help that instinct. That whole "Oh man, I love Cirie! She's the best! I'd love to work with her! Oh wait, she's the best. I can't work with her. She's a threat." thing really kind of summed up my opinion of Zeke. Its hard to figure out how things will play out this early in and there's so many other big players and wildcards in play. But I think its too close to Zeke's first season for him to have had the time to do some introspection and fix his mistakes. Cirie's another player who has to find a little chill if she's going to survive. She's fighting against her well established reputation as a backstabber and schemer and she gleefully admits its all well deserved. The only way she can counter that is to just play it straight and convince people you're not going to do that (and then of course do it when the time comes). Ozzy doesn't trust her because she betrayed him once, so she can only really try and show Ozzy that she's trustworthy (until the moment she backstabs him). But Cirie can't really help but talk and try and work things and that just feeds into her reputation. A tribe swap could give her a reset and the early days of tribe life are always kind of a tossup as anyone could steal the attention away from her at any moment. But if she can't slow down and tighten up a little she's going to just keep that target on her back. Again, I think that's what Sandra's good at. She comes off as casual and reactive instead of pro-active. That little scene where she quickly rounds up the votes against Tony without any pushback and then Varner just sits back and says "She just built a majority alliance in 25 minutes. That's scary." That's the weird power Sandra has and its a little bit of what Cirie's gotta find. ApplesandOranges posted:just as Michaela is struggling to keep her usual self under wraps, I'm not entirely convinced that Michaela's problem is "keeping her usual self under wraps." From what I remember everyone on her first season loved her personality and I suspect most of the vets would enjoy her the same way we do. I think it hurts her more to be badly covering up her facial reactions than if she just was herself and let it hang out. Not to keep comparing people to Sandra but I could see Michaela getting away with the same kind of loud personality and attitude and just surviving because she's charming and likable. And good in challenges to boot. She might rub the occasional person the wrong way but if she can keep the majority of the tribe on her side that doesn't have to be an issue this early in. What I think her real problem is is that she just can't turn down her competitiveness. She didn't get voted out of her first season for her personality, she got voted out because of that shell thing which opened a bunch of tribemates' eyes that she was a serious gamer. Michaela's smart and competitive but she wears that as a badge of honor and gets upset when people aren't putting her front and center. That's going to bite you in the rear end sooner or later. STAC Goat fucked around with this message at 10:00 on Mar 10, 2017 |
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Mar 10, 2017 09:47
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Ozzy's a petty douche but there's absolutely nothing wrong with him not trusting Cirie. Cirie admitted as much. Ozzy may be motivated too much by petty revenge or something but the thought process is the right one. A player with a legendary reputation for manipulating people screwed you over so you don't want to trust them again. I love Cirie so I'm not hating on her. She's just in a really difficult spot because her rep precedes her. The only way you can really combat that is to go against type and convince players you're different (at least until you see an opening for a bigger play) That's tough but if you act the exact way everyone expects you to then you're just reinforcing that reputation. That's part of what Tony did. That's part of what Ciera did. Cirie has to stop scrambling and send a different impression before it's too late. Or, you know, it's early so someone could gently caress up big or there could be a swap and that could kick her out of the spotlight.
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Mar 11, 2017 00:32
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Some jurors react badly and vote badly but most of the time you know its going to happen a mile away and the finalist really deserves some blame for not doing a better job avoiding it. The best players are always the ones who do the extra work to make sure that some jury member they screwed over doesn't go into the jury bitter. The ones who lose and whine about being screwed by a bitter jury are often the ones who kicked the jurors on the way out the door.
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Mar 14, 2017 19:16
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Yeah, it goes back to the reality that a lot of Survivor is about luck and adaption. If you go into things with some grand plan then its probably going to get screwed up by the tribe, a twist, a challenge, or the rain. Its why so many gamebots and super fans self destruct because they can't get out of their own heads and how they think the game is "supposed" to go. You've got to move with the game and adjust to the things that get thrown at you, and sometimes that means just laying back and letting others take the hits. The rub for us as viewers is that if the editors don't show those players actively voicing that strategy than a lot of the time it can come off as passive and floating. But its hard for us to know if it was there and we didn't see it or if they really were "just floaters".
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Mar 15, 2017 14:58
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Yeah, I think its become a really noticeable thing with the way that the show has made "super fans" a consistent casting each season. You get a lot of people who really think they "know the game" because of how much they've watched and grasp the strategic moves. But a lot of them miss the simpler social moves and need to "play the hand you're dealt" and it tends to blow up spectacularly and/or get foreshadowed by the player being overconfident/smug going in. Its why we sometimes see some recruits catch on better because they grasp the social aspects quickly and can move with the game better without any preconceptions of how the game works, even if they have no idea how idols works or who Parvati is.
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Mar 15, 2017 15:29
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Rarity posted:Ugh I'm mad they chose to keep Hali after she did literally nothing to try and save herself. She and Caleb could have tried to roll in Tai and another, she could have gone idol hunting at the very least. Caleb and Hali were on different sides of their tribe last week and didn't seem to have any kind of relationship. So they didn't seem to even consider working together when the easier play was to just throw each other under the bus. And the majority didn't show any signs of splintering so if you go trying to flip people without them approaching you then you risk being seen as a threat. They were in a pretty stacked situation and with seemingly no loyalty to each other it wouldn't make any sense for them to risk themselves to save the other. Both Caleb and Hali's play was really to do what they did. Stay calm and make the cases in Tribal. Caleb says he's stronger and better for the tribe, Hali says she's less of a threat long term. If I can nitpick any mistakes it was in Caleb arguing that Hali was easier to "manipulate" than him and that was a reason to vote her out. But Caleb's never been a smart one. I get the feeling we'll see him again since he still has barely played the game and basically got taken out by the swap this time around. Since they seem to like him so much and you can't really blame him for either of his evictions I bet he'll be back at the next veteran season.
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Mar 16, 2017 14:14
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Yeah. Troyzan and JT are both outnumbered 1-5 to go with Hali now being down 1-4. It was a pretty merciless slit for those few.
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Mar 16, 2017 15:48
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It feels too early to really judge Culpepper since he hasn't really had to do much except choose between the two easy votes in his one Tribal. But I guess at least he didn't go full alpha douche this time and seems to be focused on social game so he definitely could have learned from the first time. Which would be kind of sad because I remember loving calling Culpepper "Mr. Magoo" stumbling about.
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Mar 17, 2017 15:47
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Yeah, no, he did the right thing with Tai. I think I said it before but I thought he was a little clumsy with it, but it was the right instinct for sure. But my memory of Culpepper is that he wasn't some massive rear end in a top hat or anything but that he was just a big dumb jock who would have hints of strategic thought and then do something dumb to trip over his own feet. I just don't think he's had a chance to trip up yet. But he seems to be off to the right start.
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Mar 17, 2017 16:18
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I just finished that 115 article and it was good but I kind of left it wondering if Mario is a Florida football fan. That was just a VERY passionate defense of Culpepper. I suppose I'd have to rewatch to really object to it being unnecessarily glowing but my impression was he was KIND of a douche to the women although probably not intentionally and probably mostly because he had spent his life in locker rooms and immediately defaulted to uniting all the guys against the women. Like I said, I loved calling him "Magoo" because I thought he was more of a buffoon than a true villain.
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Mar 17, 2017 16:35
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I guess I just type in a kind of stream of consciousness/conversational way? Like keeping that "kind of" in there even though its one of those words/phrases they tell you makes you sound stupid. But its the way I would have said it so there you go.
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Mar 17, 2017 20:05
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My thinking with Troyzan is if he ends up at tribal before a merge he should just announce he has the idol pre-Tribal and force everyone to start scrambling. That could create some divides if a clear bottom of the alliance emerges and then Troyzan could theoretically work on turning someone else and forming a small alliance. He should play it no matter what because one week could get him to the merge but I think you want to force everyone out of their safe alliance and hope cracks start forming. Especially in case the merge doesnt come right away. Announcing in Tribal is great TV but it doesn't take full advantage of paranoia and scrambling.
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Mar 19, 2017 13:11
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Caleb just has generally never shown an ability for introspection and that's really the thing that makes exit interviews interesting. Plus in BB he showed a propensity to lie constantly to fluff up his own image so its hard to really take any one sided stuff like "Brad Culpepper was scared of me because I'm such an alpha male" or "I called out Sierra and it just didn't make air" at face value without wondering if Caleb's just comforting his own ego a little. And like, the whole "its not my fault I was against Sandra and trashed her before the game, someone told me she was" thing kind of feels like more of the same to me. Although I totally buy that Russell was feeding Caleb poo poo and Caleb was fully buying into it. I also fully admit I just don't like the guy.
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Mar 19, 2017 16:38
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Wasn't China kind of a rough environment? The whole "pick a leader" thing seemed to be largely rooted in the whole "someone has to actually get us organized so we don't starve and sleep on the ground with rats." The concept seemed to go by the wayside along with the show kind of abandoning the whole "survival" aspect of the show (except when it rains hard) so it would make sense for it to pop back up if things get tough, and I thought China was tougher because it wasn't the typical tropical setting.
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Mar 20, 2017 21:02
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I loved the twist. I hated that it took out Malcolm because I like him a lot. And he was like visibly and audibly shaken by that and I can't blame him at all. But Survivor is never fair and tons of people have gotten screwed by twists. That's part of Survivor. You can be on top of the world and then a twist screws you. Its just one of the elements that you have to try and deal with. And this was a fun as hell one to watch. And at least Sandra survived, and I'm still rooting for her to somehow pull this off. By all rights she probably should have been gone this week (again) if JT and Malcolm had followed through on their thoughts and tried to flip a Varner or Aubrey to help target Sandra. I was convinced that was how it was going to play out. I love JT but that was idiotic. Like, if you're going to betray your tribe and give away who they're targeting why not finish it? Do that tribe flip on Sandra. There's a chance it screws you if they don't listen, vote out Malcolm, and leave you outnumbered on a tribe you betrayed. But oh look... that's where you are now. At least then you were trying to make a power move on your tribe to take control. I don't really know what JT was hoping to accomplish the way he played. I guess he expected Sandra to go and that he'd be able to manage the fallout of betrayal with "we had to get Sandra out". But drat it, JT, you need to think through your ideas better. And find a Fishbauch to bounce them off of. I love Hali now. She didn't have a lot of room to work there since betraying her tribe just leaves her vulnerable to revenge, but then Culpepper and Sierra all but threaten her in Tribal and it gives understandable reason to be like "well, gently caress it." She tried even though it wasn't really working. And she was just fun with "I don't consent" and "Ok, I'll vote but you might regret it" or "If that's the way we're going to play it." Hali's taking Malcolm's spot on my favorites squad.
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Mar 25, 2017 02:16
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From what we saw he went and told Brad that they were voting for Sierra, and then when his tribe was debating flipping the vote to Brad he said "I just told him he was safe." We never saw him tell them he told Brad they were voting for Sierra, and if he did you would think they would have not voted for Sierra. From what we saw he lied (by omission) to his tribe and screwed them by telling the other tribe who they were voting for. We never saw him admit to that and it would seemingly be a big thing if he had because then it would be on them for not changing their vote. But what we saw puts it squarely on JT. Edit: Just listened to RHAP and Malcolm confirms that JT never told them he gave away Sierra was the target. That he panicked at the last minute and was trying to get them to get off Sierra but wouldn't tell them why. STAC Goat fucked around with this message at 05:22 on Mar 25, 2017 |
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Mar 25, 2017 05:12
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I love Malcolm's RHAP reaction to the twist as "I hate it because it screwed me and I had no chance to talk to them, but I can't get mad because this is what we love about the game." Interesting that he says he was close with Sandra and was just playing along with JT about targeting her. And he says Aubrey was his "ride or die."
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Mar 25, 2017 05:42
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ApplesandOranges posted:J.T. did tell them to vote Sandra. The consensus seems to be that J.T. kept trying to push them to do it, then halfway through realized that they weren't going to budge and that he had screwed everything up. That's when he panicked and tried to get everyone to move away from Sierra. Malcolm's interview says that what we didn't see was J.T. looking really shattered towards the end of the whole pre-vote huddles. He had no choice but to rejoin his tribe in trying to vote out Sierra. Assuming the idol wasn't in play, there were three outcomes: My point (which I probably didn't verbalize well) is that if JT wanted to use the other tribe to take out Sandra then the only way it really works is if he has the numbers to take control of his tribe. So like if he could get Malcolm and Varner to vote for Sandra but not Audrey and Michaela (I'm picking randomly) he'd be risking a rock draw in a regular tribal. But if he can get the other tribe to throw five votes on her then he can just take her out and take control. That doesn't seem to have been an actual option based on Malcolm's post eviction interviews but its the only way the move makes sense to me. JT had three plays that I think could have worked out for him. 1) Shut up, sit back, vote Sierra, and hope it all works out and they take out Sandra somehow and if Sierra goes just keep trying to play the game in his tribe. 2) Find 3 votes for Sandra before Tribal and tell Brad in Tribal to target her. Brad could have betrayed him and still voted out Malcolm, but it makes the easy vote 8-3 Sandra-Sierra and leaves his 3 in control of the tribe. 3) Go crazy and openly declare that you're voting for Sandra so either people can join him or they can risk a 5-5 rock draw. This seems dumb for a couple of reasons but it probably would have worked to get Sandra out at least. The mistake JT and Hali were making was treating that Tribal like a merge one where they were choosing between alliances. That may have been what it felt like but it wasn't the reality. Both were going to have to go home to the tribes that they just openly courted betraying and that makes them top targets for the tribe next Tribal. For Hali I kind of understand it because she was clearly the target anyway and Brad and Sierra were all but threatening her in that Tribal. But for JT he seemed to actually be fitting in well with his tribe and was getting some positive feedback from Malcolm on targeting Sandra. So by doing what he did he undercuts any trust he had built (and as luck would have it, loses Malcolm). The other mistake JT made was not just coming clean that he told Brad about Sierra. Because there's a big difference between "I think we should change the vote off Sierra just because" and "We need to change the vote off Sierra because I told them we were voting for her." He was trying to cover up his betrayal but they just ended up figuring it out on their own when she was given the idol.
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Mar 25, 2017 20:50
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ApplesandOranges posted:For 2, J.T. doesn't necessarily need three votes for Sandra. All he needed was for the other tribe to vote for Sandra, then he could flip and take her out. When the tribe goes back, he can buddy up with Malcolm, then they have three days at least to flip someone like Varner over to get a majority - without Sandra's centralizing presence he'd have an easier time making a crack. Which might be what he was hoping for that night, the other tribe just didn't want to play along. It's honestly a smarter move for them to eliminate Malcolm before Sandra - it will always be easy making a case to eliminate Sandra, while Malcolm is a harder sell as long as he can duck behind shields, especially once merge happens. On 3, yeah, it could have worked to get out Sandra (as Malcolm got out Phillip) but it doesn't inherently improve his position going forward. It arguably hurts him since he's now come off as a kind of crazy player who you can't really trust. That's the thing. Going rogue here means betraying 5 tribemates and putting them all at risk. So even if it works out the way JT wants with Sandra going, he had no guarantee of that so any of the other 4 should be sketched out. After all, what happened to Malcolm could have happened to any of them. That's why I think 2 would have been the middle ground play between "conservative play" and "game changer" because if you get a couple of people on your side before Tribal then (a) you're not betraying them and (b) you can make a more blatant push at Sandra and hopefully get the other tribe on board. That leaves you with way less post Tribal work to do. I don't think the move was worth it at all since he seemed to be doing a good job integrating into his tribe and they weren't targeting his ally Brad. If I was JT I would have played for the merge there. But if he was set on making the Sandra move it should have been more premeditated/overt and not so reckless.
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Mar 26, 2017 20:45
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Max posted:Watching that last tribal again, I think Hali comes out OK on her current tribe. She was working to move the vote, and didn't give away the presence of the idol. JT on the other hand . . . Yeah, they could hold it against her that she thought about flipping but she was already at the bottom of the Tribe and they were pretty much antagonizing her during that thing by constantly questioning and quasi-threatening her. The reasonable response would be for them to say "Ok, Hali, you were backed into a corner and you did what you thought you had to do. We can respect that." But in the worst case she's just in the same "odd man out" position she was in before Tribal. Although if Brad knew that Hali was pushing for him to be the target he could certainly hold that grudge. And he seems to be the relative power of the Tribe. But again, she was already Target #1. It was worse for JT because he seemed to actually be ingratiating himself with his tribe. Plus his tribe wasn't questioning/antagonizing him the way Hali's was.
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Mar 27, 2017 16:55
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Yeah, as ApplesandOranges said she just has to try and survive to the merge where she might be able to grab a second life, or at least will probably fall off the immediate targets list. The positive she might have gotten out of that Tribal is that she might have gained points with Sandra's crew for trying (and yeah, maybe with Sierra for trying to switch the vote off her).
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Mar 27, 2017 17:39
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I don't know. I tend to think you should tell as few lies as necessary. Spinning a tale about that Tribal is problematic since there's 5 people on the other Tribe who know the truth and you can't be 100% sure of what your Tribe heard. Even if you sell your lie for now it could come back to hurt you post merge. I think if I'm Hali I just say I felt uncomfortable by what Brad said and sketched out, and I was just trying to protect Sierra and figure stuff out. It might make an enemy of Brad but if you can win over Sierra it might be worth it. I don't know. Its a wacky situation to do spin on. Its probably best to just reiterate that you didn't tell them anything and ultimately voted with the Tribe.
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Mar 27, 2017 18:18
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I was actually a little curious to see someone try a Tribal Filibuster and was a little sad Hali gave in so quickly.
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Mar 27, 2017 19:29
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For sure, I just wanted to see how long Hali could string it out. But yeah, the filibuster was clearly ended by Sandra announcing that they weren't going to negotiate with her further. Although, we obviously didn't see everything as we like didn't see the panicked JT begging them to change the vote thing Malcolm described (although I thought there was a clear shot/moment of JT with a "I've made a terrible mistake" look). STAC Goat fucked around with this message at 19:43 on Mar 27, 2017 |
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Mar 27, 2017 19:41
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| # ¿ May 3, 2024 08:57 |
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Yeah. As a massive Sandra fan I think her best skill is that she adapts well to the game and situations. So the difference in her game is a difference of the situations. On Pearl Islands she started in the successful, happy tribe and there wasn't really strife until Fairplay started to sew chaos. Then her game became largely about maneuvering around him all the way to the end. On Heroes vs Villains she starts off in the same sort of situation with Russell and her game is spent maneuvering around him, again to the end. I think there was probably a reason Sandra's first instinct was to go to the end with Tony and that's it in the above two paragraphs. Problem is Tony went nuts and came gunning for her right away so she had to move against him and ended up in a power position early. Something she's never really been in before. But I don't think that was deliberate, it was just a reality of how things played out with Tony. This season's going to be a huge challenge to her because she's going to have a lot of strategists and gameplayers who see her as a threat and its a much more complicated game with the 3 tribes and swaps. She's always kind of been able to operate as the non-threatening opposition to the arrogant power and could survive by being more well liked than the power and dodging and weaving. Going deep in this season is going to demand a lot more strategic gameplay and taking out direct threats like Tony. She's never really played that aggressively before. But JT and the Culpepper tribe probably did her a favor with that Tribal. Not only did JT presumably make himself an untrustworthy person to rally the tribe against Sandra but Malcolm's also gone and he seemed like a likely candidate to make a move sooner or later. I think Sandra is theoretically now set up to make the merge and then she could maybe start to dodge and weave behind threats. And like the "I'm the queen" stuff is potentially dangerous but I think its just her general personality and people seem to just laugh at it. Most other players probably would have caught backlash after the Tony eviction but she didn't really seem to. STAC Goat fucked around with this message at 22:35 on Mar 27, 2017 |
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Mar 27, 2017 22:32
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