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HappyHippo
Nov 19, 2003
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Mokelumne Trekka posted:

Why all the talk of this being DOA in Senate? Sorry, I know nothing despite the reading I've done

Rand and Lee are opposed to it because it doesn't just repeal Obamacare. Those four senators from monday who said they wouldn't vote for any rollback of medicaid are presumably also against it. Republicans can lose at most two votes (assuming no Dems vote for it), those total 6.

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HappyHippo
Nov 19, 2003
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The 30% premium is hilarious. It's basically just a slightly different form of a mandate, except it goes to the insurance companies instead of the government.

HappyHippo
Nov 19, 2003
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Subvisual Haze posted:

It also does the exact opposite of what it's supposed to. The current mandate encourages people without insurance to get insurance. This new monstrosity encourages people without insurance to...continue to not have insurance?

It's awful. Does anyone who isn't Paul Ryan like that idea?

HappyHippo
Nov 19, 2003
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My 90 year old grandpa got a knee replacement here in Canada, thankfully the death panel showed mercy.

HappyHippo
Nov 19, 2003
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No this is a different bill.

I don't think this one will have an "official" name because it's part of the reconciliation process? Someone tell me if I'm wrong.

HappyHippo
Nov 19, 2003
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WONKY

HappyHippo
Nov 19, 2003
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size1one posted:

Now that International Women's Day is over....

Look they stood up for women's rights to tanning beds what more do you want??

HappyHippo
Nov 19, 2003
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Does anyone know when the CBO will put out their numbers?

HappyHippo
Nov 19, 2003
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CBO score due at 4PM apparently

HappyHippo
Nov 19, 2003
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Hieronymous Alloy posted:

I have a real fear that the CBO has dramatically cooked the books on this, and the entire past week has been an exercise in getting Democrats to talk up how important and reliable the CBP score is.

Paul Ryan picked the guy running the CBO these days, didn't he?

Eh, seems like the Republicans wouldn't have spent all week talking about how the CBO can't be trusted if this was the plan

HappyHippo
Nov 19, 2003
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Unfortunately it looks like the report projects a decrease in the deficit. I was hoping it would increase as that would piss off the conservative wing even more; they don't give a poo poo about people losing coverage.

HappyHippo
Nov 19, 2003
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Ze Pollack posted:

Curious about the mechanism by which that works- mostly just cutting Medicare and company?

Medicaid, but yes. Cuts to Medicaid exceed the revenue lost in the tax cuts and credits.

It's 1.2 trillion less in outlays and .9 trillion in reduced revenue

HappyHippo
Nov 19, 2003
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Ze Pollack posted:

Surprised they could find that much in Medicaid to cut, tbh.

"By 2026, Medicaid spending would be about 25 percent less than what CBO projects under current law"

HappyHippo
Nov 19, 2003
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Arglebargle III posted:

The CBO estimates a $330 billion reduction in the deficit over 10 years, making the yearly reduction $33 billion, which makes the savings less than the cost of the $54 billion increase in DoD spending that Trump wants. Over 10 years it's a pittance compared to the cost of social insurance programs.

This explanation wouldn't even fit in a tweet there's no way it gains any traction.

HappyHippo
Nov 19, 2003
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Arglebargle III posted:

AHCA would save $33 bln a year -- less than the $54 bln DoD spending increase Trump wants. More money for bombs, no money for health care. #hashtag

Well the other problem here is that Republicans would gladly take grandma's health insurance away to buy more bombs.

HappyHippo
Nov 19, 2003
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Ytlaya posted:

* I wonder how this is on the lower end of the spectrum. I know that many people who make six figures consider themselves middle class, but are there a bunch of people making like $20k who also consider themselves middle class?

HappyHippo
Nov 19, 2003
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Does anyone other than Ryan actually like this bill? Seems like literally all its support is "well we gotta do something cause we said we would"

HappyHippo
Nov 19, 2003
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Subvisual Haze posted:

The greatest mystery to me is the proposed 30% penalty when obtaining coverage if you didn't have it before. It's almost impressive how incredibly stupid this idea was. It does the opposite of what it should do (instead of punishing people for not having coverage, it actually punishes people who don't have coverage but are trying to obtain coverage). After running for years and mounting endless legal challenges on the evils of the Obamacare mandate, they propose to replace it with...a slightly different mandate? Who actually came up with and is actively supporting this thing?

You can't repeal the mandate without repealing the other stuff people like (the preexisting condition stuff), but they've been raging against the mandate as an assault on freedom for years. Hence the need to get rid of it without actually getting rid of it. Naturally they want any penalty to go to business rather than government (paying fees to business is freedom, paying them to the government is tyranny) and this is what's left.

HappyHippo
Nov 19, 2003
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zonohedron posted:


- if you end the individual mandate, you have to give the insurance companies SOMETHING because otherwise their lobbyists will flood your swamp with their crocodile tears

Just wanted to say that this is great

HappyHippo
Nov 19, 2003
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BarbarianElephant posted:

You are saying this like the Republicans would consider it a bad thing.

It hurts business interests so of course they do.

HappyHippo
Nov 19, 2003
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BarbarianElephant posted:

I don't think the Obamacare plans are particularly profitable to health insurance companies, judging by how many of them have pulled out, so they probably see it as a good thing to lose business they aren't making money on.

But we're talking about repealing the mandate without repealing the preexisting condition part, which is absolutely bad for business.

HappyHippo
Nov 19, 2003
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What are you basing that on? I've seen a few articles recently that indicate they're moving to the right with it to appease the conservatives.

Edit: this article for example http://www.cnn.com/2017/03/19/politics/trump-health-care-senate/index.html

HappyHippo fucked around with this message at 15:49 on Mar 20, 2017

HappyHippo
Nov 19, 2003
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Right, I guess it all depends on what those concessions are, and if the changes to placate the moderates will push the conservatives away again.

The real right wing isn't the Republican Study Committee though, it's the Freedom Caucus, they could block it themselves couldn't they?

HappyHippo
Nov 19, 2003
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UHC countries tend to spend less on drugs, because larger purchasers can negotiate better prices.

UHC countries tend to spend much less on administrative overhead, because everyone being covered under the same system simplifies administration.

HappyHippo
Nov 19, 2003
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Monkey Fracas posted:

Phase 2 and 3 will fix this bill so good; you won't believe it!

I think they basically just added prong 1.5 now too

HappyHippo
Nov 19, 2003
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daydrinking is fun posted:

Also "being constrained" or trying to "save up political capital" is a huge noob trap. The GOP never bothers to let reality get in the way of their drive to turn America into the Running Man, why the gently caress should we limit our imaginations?

This isn't really true at all though. The Obamacare "repeal" is hated by the hard-right base, and they might not even be able to pass it. It's the epitome of a compromise bill, attempting to thread the needle and placate both the moderate and conservative GOP lawmakers. It is very much the product of the constraints and realties of trying to pass legislation.

HappyHippo
Nov 19, 2003
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NBC says there are 27 no votes, also one Dem will miss the vote Thursday meaning Republicans can afford 22 defections now

http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/these-republicans-could-doom-their-party-s-health-care-bill-n736591

HappyHippo
Nov 19, 2003
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evilweasel posted:

If they actually manage to pass it because that one democrat can't make the vote though, cripes

I'm going to be so pissed if that happens. This is callous, but gently caress your death in the family, millions of people's healthcare is at stake and this is down to the wire.

HappyHippo
Nov 19, 2003
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Some Republican senator is out with a back injury next week so they can only afford to lose 1 vote if he can't get back.

Edit: although I don't know how he was leaning, if he was already a "no" then it doesn't change much

HappyHippo
Nov 19, 2003
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evilweasel posted:

Which Senator? Where did you see that? Not that I don't believe you but I can't find it and want to see who it is.

Phone posting so no link but it's Isakson

HappyHippo
Nov 19, 2003
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I hope they put it up for a vote and then it fails. I want to see Paul Ryan fall face first into a pile of dog poo poo.

HappyHippo
Nov 19, 2003
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Thinking it over, even if they don't have the votes they kinda have to hold the vote anyway, as embarrassing as it it, so that they can at least say they tried to do something. Can you imagine how the base would react if they never even held a vote? I think a good portion of them (between the moderates and the hard right) want to be able to say they voted for it going into the next election.

HappyHippo
Nov 19, 2003
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What changes did they make?

HappyHippo
Nov 19, 2003
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Badger of Basra posted:

I assume the CBO isn't going to score the $75 billion since there's no actual provision for how to spend it.

So it'll probably just affect the spending figure without changing the uninsured figure. Nice.

HappyHippo
Nov 19, 2003
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PhazonLink posted:

Soooooo is it off topic to ask "How do I healthcare without insurance?" if the worst happens later today.

Do those prescription discount carts have expiration dates?

It still has to pass the Senate

HappyHippo
Nov 19, 2003
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Yeah that seems like admission that they don't have the votes.

HappyHippo
Nov 19, 2003
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Majorian posted:

Do some of them actually think their voters are going to...like this particular demand?:psyduck:

Their top concern is not getting primaried from the right.

HappyHippo
Nov 19, 2003
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Haha, I'm Canadian, but I'm somehow on this guy's email list. I always make sure to answer his surveys.

HappyHippo
Nov 19, 2003
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Shimrra Jamaane posted:

So what are they going to do, just silently glare at eachother for an hour?

Plan their ouster of Ryan?

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HappyHippo
Nov 19, 2003
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Hahahahaha

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