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Zikan
Feb 29, 2004

Discendo Vox posted:

Why do they need 60 votes?

filibuster

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Zikan
Feb 29, 2004

The answer is that the White House is staffed top to bottom with stupid people who can't do anything right.

Zikan
Feb 29, 2004

That was the amendment to end the Medicaid expansion two years earlier then planned.

Zikan
Feb 29, 2004

https://twitter.com/braddjaffy/status/840943495816839168

Zikan
Feb 29, 2004

21 million uninsured by 2020 lmfao

https://twitter.com/SimonMaloy/status/841380452502011904

Zikan
Feb 29, 2004

bill going well imo

https://twitter.com/pdmcleod/status/842150087950237696

Zikan
Feb 29, 2004

there's no way that ryan bows down and faces the full wraith of trump. my bet is that he passes by making it more conservative to placate the HFC and dares the senate to take all of the blame.

Zikan
Feb 29, 2004

Nothus posted:

You need 60 votes in the Senate. The Republicans have 52.

they plan to pass this one via reconciliation so it only needs 50 votes in the senate

the bill is so bad that it can't get those 50 votes when the republicans have a majority

Zikan
Feb 29, 2004

You can't just repeal the individual mandate and call it a day because you risk causing a death spiral in the health insurance markets if people drop coverage and only pick it up when they become sick en mass.

Zikan
Feb 29, 2004

Shot

https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/842494190990901248

and chaser

https://twitter.com/freedomcaucus/status/842763614004109314

Zikan
Feb 29, 2004

this will go well

https://twitter.com/JohnJHarwood/status/844594031892086784

Zikan
Feb 29, 2004

evilweasel posted:

I agree. If Ryan doesn't have the votes tomorrow, he's not getting them. His only option at that point is to put the "nos" on record and hope they either absorb the blame, or the pressure forces them to change their mind and he brings it up again (though it is not clear to me he can, I'm not an expert on this procedure stuff. well, less "not an expert" and more "barely any knowledge").

he can also leave the "vote" open for a ridiculously long time and attempt to wheel and deal on the house floor. i believe delay did this during the bush administration during a controversial vote and the vote wrapped up at 5 a.m. the next day. ideally president trump would be on hand to pressure lawmakers during this but since this would involve trump working more then his usual 6 hour work day it'll all be the house GOP leadership.

Zikan
Feb 29, 2004

the kochs think it doesn't fully repeal every aspect of obamacare and leave us with a dystopian free market nightmare

this is also rand paul's position

Zikan
Feb 29, 2004

reminder that one major reason trump wants to have the vote today is because today is the 7th anniversary of the passing of obamacare

Zikan
Feb 29, 2004

https://twitter.com/KatyTurNBC/status/844994164521623552

Zikan
Feb 29, 2004

mods change thread title to AHCA is DOA plz tia

Zikan
Feb 29, 2004

no one wants to tell him ahahahahahahaha

Zikan
Feb 29, 2004

https://twitter.com/johnjharwood/status/844995330546511872

Zikan
Feb 29, 2004

https://twitter.com/GlennThrush/status/845002829685252097

Art of the deal folks!

Zikan
Feb 29, 2004

https://twitter.com/mfcannon/status/845020749991743490

*Incredibly Paul Ryan Voice*
"This is fine."

Zikan
Feb 29, 2004

https://twitter.com/MajorCBS/status/845310870607548418

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YIlL0T2yTss

Zikan
Feb 29, 2004

Shimrra Jamaane posted:

So what happens if Boss Baby Trump demands a vote no matter what gently caress the results. Will it have to take place?

as speaker of the house ryan has the power to schedule votes and can do whatever the hell he wants

the problem is that he would be going against the leader of his party to do so

but trump will blame him if the whole thing fails anyway so....

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vmn9asN-8AE

Zikan
Feb 29, 2004

Paul Ryan has convinced Trump that he needs to do obamacare repeal and replace before the "easier" goal of tax cuts and Trump is too stupid to realize that's complete bullshit.

Zikan
Feb 29, 2004

Boo, that was the funniest reason. Ryan blatantly lying on how the legislative process works and Trump eating it up because he's too stupid and incurious to learn was an amazing narrative.

Zikan
Feb 29, 2004

B B posted:

The House Freedom Caucus has endorsed AHCA:


Any idea on if this will drive away enough moderates in the House? I assume this would still be DOA in the Senate?

i'm sure it will be fi

https://twitter.com/scottwongDC/status/857285713326460930

Zikan
Feb 29, 2004

https://twitter.com/jakesherman/status/858684036394430464

he's gonna blow it up again

Zikan
Feb 29, 2004

the way forward in terms of best to worst is as follows

senate can't get 50 votes, ahca 2.0 fails
senate rewrites bill to be less bad but still horrible, hands it back to house, HFC freaks out and sinks ahca 2.5
senate rewrites bill to be less bad but still horrible, hands it back to house, house passes it, trump signs it
senate passes bill as is, trump signs it, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vmn9asN-8AE

Zikan fucked around with this message at 21:04 on May 4, 2017

Zikan
Feb 29, 2004


*fast announcer voice*

"offer only applies if you are white, male, straight, and protestant

Zikan
Feb 29, 2004

St. Dogbert posted:

Any idea as to what this Senate rewrite may look like? I'm assuming that, since they're coming up with a new bill from scratch, there are going to be major differences from the version passed by the House.

they have to thread the needle of pleasing their versions of the freedom caucus and the moderates.

collins, murkowski, and portman in particular are concerned about the losses in coverage. the first two are also concerned about taking away funding from planned parenthood.

basically there's probably going to be a conservative "yes we love death ahahahaha" bill and a moderate "less people die (but people still die)" bill and their gonna butt heads. in the house the HFC got to something they liked and bullied the Tuesday Group with the fig leaf of the upton amendment which doesn't really do anything.

issue is that senators have much longer viewpoints and have to represent whole states rather then hyperpartisian districts. otoh you've got repeal and replace as the promise to their base and no one wants to be singularly blamed for letting that fail.

Zikan
Feb 29, 2004

https://twitter.com/BraddJaffy/status/878325236294336512

someone really really wants a hall pass

Zikan
Feb 29, 2004

If this was any recess other then the 4th of July recess I could honestly see McConnell canceling it so he could have more time to hammer out the bribe amendments for this piece of garbage.

Zikan
Feb 29, 2004

https://twitter.com/senatorcollins/status/879471862694256641

seems to be going over well imo

Zikan
Feb 29, 2004

https://twitter.com/braddjaffy/status/879720322563538944

Zikan
Feb 29, 2004

https://twitter.com/jakesherman/status/879759025151377411

lol this rollout of the senate bill has been a disaster

Zikan
Feb 29, 2004

I'm starting to think McConnell was genuinely not expecting this much resistance

https://twitter.com/mj_lee/status/880494529815601152

Zikan
Feb 29, 2004

https://twitter.com/nprpolitics/status/887069681646841856

if a medical issue is the thing that sinks this second attempt at trumpcare I may die laughing

Zikan
Feb 29, 2004

https://twitter.com/ASimendinger/status/887142730547245056

Zikan
Feb 29, 2004

https://twitter.com/jonfavs/status/887350850481397761

thus goes the third attempt at trumpcare

im sure the fourth will be equally as successful as the other three

Zikan
Feb 29, 2004

evilweasel posted:

quoting this so you can't edit it once you realize who steve daines is

lol

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Zikan
Feb 29, 2004

the only ironclad assurance ryan could give is not scheduling a vote but literally all of the blame would fall on him and he would lose his speakership

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