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CottonWolf
Jul 20, 2012

Good ideas generator

I'd not spotted that it was in the back. That's interesting. He was clearly looking at someone in the room. That implies an attack from the front. So either he fled, and they attacked his exposed back, there were two people in the room, and while one of them distracted him, the other attacks from behind, or it was added post-mortem. Or I suppose, he'd already been stabbed in the back when he came into the room, which explains the crying. If he was stabbed in the back outside, fled into the nearest room and locked in behind him, collapsed on the bed and started crying in pain/fear, and unbeknowest to him an accomplice was waiting inside to finish him off, that would work too. But at that point, presumably you'd pull the stake out.

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CottonWolf
Jul 20, 2012

Good ideas generator

Yeah. It's finally paying off the Inferno references. Is anyone well versed in it to link characters across the works? Even for someone who read it once at school a long time ago, Virgil/Virgilia and Beatrice are obvious, but are there any more than that?

ProfessorProf posted:

In any event, the great detective had given her permission. Eva and some others wrapped Hideyoshi up in the sheets, and Gohda and Rudolf carried him out... The sheets were quickly stained red. It was so painful to see that Shannon and Kumasawa stripped the blanket off the bed to further cover the corpse...

If we think Shannon's involved, lets go with this:

There was something on the blanket that incriminated the murderer. Shannon and Kumasawa were disposing of the evidence.

CottonWolf
Jul 20, 2012

Good ideas generator

thetruegentleman posted:

As for the actual murderer, only George had his corpse checked by everyone, so that makes Jessica's death suspicious as hell now that the bodies are missing: if she helped kill Hideyoshi, it would start to make a whole lot of sense that he would freak out.

This...

ProfessorProf posted:

Kyrie-san and I covered the other corpses up to their heads with their blankets, just like George-aniki's... So that they wouldn't have to undergo any more shame... with their terrible wounds exposed like this...



Jessica was exactly the same as George-aniki. Though she appeared to be resting quietly in the bed... her neck had been sliced deep and the wound lay open in a brutal way... And Maria was the same.
...combined with this...

ProfessorProf posted:



"Hmm? Red? Well, there's no point in me holding out against you. That's right, At a glance, anyone could confirm that these corpses are dead, so it is absolutely impossible that they are just people playing dead."
...argue pretty strongly against that.

CottonWolf
Jul 20, 2012

Good ideas generator

thetruegentleman posted:

That's actually a big part of why this seems so suspicious: they could confirm it, but that brings up the question of whether or not they *actually did*. They also might not be playing dead: Jessica could have been drugged to actually be sleeping, and not just playing dead.

More importantly, the only person we know who actually looked at all the corpses is Battler: Kyrie covered them with blankets up to the head, but it never said that she checked the wounds herself.

Ah. I see your point. I'd completely missed that. Let's break this red text down line by line in detail then, as it clearly requires it:

...anyone looking at George, Jessica, Maria, Rosa or Genji's corpses could confirm at a glance that they were dead.

As you point out, could implies possibility, rather than certainty. It's possible that someone who saw their corpses could have confirmed at a glance that they were dead. Now that I think about it though, a bigger problem with this line of red is corpses. Given that we already know that the red text can be deliberately temporally tricky, the fact that if you saw their corpses you could possibly confirm their deaths is actually a completely meaningless statement. It both doesn't confirm their deaths (Who knows who and when someone is seeing their corpses? Maybe it's years later after they've died a natural death) and doesn't confirm that if you saw them that you'd know they were dead.

Maybe the next line's better?

At a glance, anyone could confirm that these corpses are dead, so it is absolutely impossible that they are just people playing dead.

Confirmed corpses! In this case the these applies to the corpses in front of them, which Gapp supposedly took. So there are corpses. These corpses here. By definition a corpse cannot be alive. Again anyone could confirm they were dead. The fact that no-one has done is irrelevant to us as the observers. The characters in story may not know for sure that these corpses are dead, but we do. Because they're called corpses in red text. It is absolutely certain that these corpses are not just people playing dead.

Of course, these corpses handily do not actually have any names attached in red. Opps!

So you're right, thetruegentleman, that red text tells you basically nothing.

E: That said, with enough butchering of language, any sentence can be rendered ambiguous. I guess the question is, does Virgilia gain anything by misleading people here? She's not talking to anyone who she'd benefit from confusing. Presumably both Battler and Bern can see the red text. Lambda already knows exactly what's happening, so it's not for her "benefit". She's also very much Beato's piece, so I tend to assume that she was attempting to help Battler with this. He's not helped in any obvious way by being misled. It's possible that she'd want to mislead Bern, but I tend to think that she'd be clever enough to find the holes if that's the case. Given Battler's incompetence, he probably requires a push towards the right answer. So maybe we can take these statements at face value?

CottonWolf fucked around with this message at 19:43 on Apr 12, 2017

CottonWolf
Jul 20, 2012

Good ideas generator

idonotlikepeas posted:

Another thing to keep in mind is the temporal aspect. These corpses are dead right now, but that doesn't mean that they were dead when they were seen in bed before; it's possible that one of them faked their death to help dispose of the other bodies, then was later killed by a confederate, leaving nothing but corpses.

Yeah. So we're left with:

"If and when George, Jessica, Maria, Rosa and Genji die, maybe someone might be able to tell?" and "Some unidentified corpses died at some point."

Thanks Virgilia.

CottonWolf
Jul 20, 2012

Good ideas generator

thetruegentleman posted:

Good points all around: the red text really is perfect for witches, hiding the truth by pretending to show it.

Yeah. The game has been so intent on deceiving us that it's impossible to tell with any red truth whether we can actually trust it. With no conclusive evidence either way, I guess we have to build two separate theories based on the following two mutually exclusive propositions and see where they take us.

George, Jessica, Maria, Rosa and Genji are dead.

OR

At least one of George, Jessica, Maria, Rosa and Genji are still alive.

CottonWolf
Jul 20, 2012

Good ideas generator

Well, this is silly. This is a setup. It's clearly not Natsuhi or a witch. Lambda and Bern have cleverly structured this to be an X or Y situation where both X and Y are wrong.

As thetruegentleman said yesterday, "hiding the truth by pretending to show it".

CottonWolf
Jul 20, 2012

Good ideas generator

resurgam40 posted:

Which makes it difficult to discern what the point of this is besides needlessly making GBS threads on somebody for chuckles.

witches.txt

CottonWolf
Jul 20, 2012

Good ideas generator

I want to procrastinate from work on this <good> Friday, so here goes. Let's be Natsuhi's defence team. Reasonable doubt here we come:

The State of the World

...at 24:00, Natsuhi, Krauss, and Genji were in a corridor on the second floor of the mansion. All the remaining people were at the family conference in the dining hall. Of course, at that point in time, no murder had occurred. Genji was also alive.

At 24:00 in the guesthouse George, Jessica and Maria were alive and in the second floor cousins' room. Nanjo, Gohda and Kumasawa were on the first floor.

(As of this trial) George, Jessica, Maria, Rosa, and Genji really are dead.

Rosa was alive at 1:00.
Proof by detective authority.

Implicit Prosecution Proposition: No-one in the guesthouse could have committed the murders.

Prosecution Subproposition 1: Kumasawa has an alibi.


Evidence:
...after Kumasawa returned to the guesthouse, she never went to the second floor until morning.
Proof by sealing of the door to the room.

Prosecution Subproposition 2: Gohda has an alibi.

Evidence:
...after Gohda returned to the guesthouse, he never went to the second floor until morning.
Proof by sealing the door of the room until 1:00, followed by time with the detective, the by exclusion from the second floor by the detective.

Prosecution Subproposition 3: Nanjo has an alibi.

Evidence:
From 1:00 AM to 3:00 AM, Erika, Nanjo, and Gohda spent their time in the lounge on the first floor of the guesthouse.
After 24:00 Erika was with Nanjo the whole time until 3:00AM.
Nanjo had the alibi of being with Erika until 3:00 AM. And he didn't leave his room after 3:00 AM until morning.

Proof by time with the detective, followed by sealing of the room.

Prosecution Subproposition 4: Battler had an alibi.

Evidence:
Ushiromiya Battler returned to the cousins' room at 3:00 AM and fell asleep. After that, until the discovery of the crime, absolutely nothing out of the ordinary happened in the room!
...it was impossible for Battler to commit murder or damage the corpses.

Proof by red text.

Defence Proposition 1: It has not been proven that no-one in the guesthouse could have committed the murders.

Any of the cousins and/or Rosa could have killed the others then themselves.
Maria is a good candidate here. If "Beatrice" instructed her to, I don't doubt that she would happily kill the others in their sleep then kill herself, she after all has previously expressed belief in rebirth in the Golden Land. This avoids contradiction with Knox's 8th, as we have previous evidence that would suggest Maria's mental state would allow this.

We have no confirmation about the status of the room after 3:00 AM. Therefore, Gohda has no alibi.
All we have confirmed is that absolutely nothing out of the ordinary happened in the room after 3:00 AM. This is both vague and relies on information that we as the outside observer don't have. What ordinarily happens in that room outside of the family conference? We know that there have previously been deaths on the island. Have there been murders? What happened to Kinzo and where was his body stored? So the defence presents the following blue text: There is not enough evidence available to suggest that murder or corpse storage is "out of the ordinary" on Rokkenjima. If this proposition is accepted, Gohda, who's room was not sealed after 3:00 AM, could have killed the cousins when they went downstairs for some reason and deposited in the room in the morning before Battler awoke.

Anyone got any more holes?

CottonWolf
Jul 20, 2012

Good ideas generator

Oh, is that a boardgame? If I search Android game I just get pages and pages of apps.

E: Found it.

CottonWolf fucked around with this message at 16:31 on Apr 14, 2017

CottonWolf
Jul 20, 2012

Good ideas generator

Huh. I didn't think about where the weapon would go. That does rather stymie that theory.

CottonWolf
Jul 20, 2012

Good ideas generator

idonotlikepeas posted:

Eva created a plan to discredit Natsuhi and regain the headship for her family. She enlisted Shannon and Kanon to help. Kanon has motivation of his own and Shannon seems to be willing to help him out, in general. Shannon also might be motivated by currying favor with Eva.

Eva creating a plan to discredit Natsuhi is entirely believable. They really do seem to hate one another. It's not clear that simply by framing Natsuhi the headship would pass directly onto her family. Given that Kinzo's a crazy person, what would happen after that is entirely unpredictable. I'm fully on board the Shannon and Kanon being culprits train though.

idonotlikepeas posted:

Kanon could have revealed Kinzo's death himself, but that wouldn't satisfy his need for revenge, so he went along with Eva's plan but planned to commit more murders than she intended.
Eva pressured George into assisting with the plan. He's in the cousin room, so he can murder everyone else and pretend to be dead.

I think if this is the case, it's much more likely that Kanon was the mastermind and manipulated Eva into the initial killings. He holds all the cards here. We have to suppose that he told Eva about Kinzo's death for a reason. He gains nothing unless it furthers his revenge mission under the hypothesis that he's Natsuhi's abandoned child.

idonotlikepeas posted:

Not every corpse has been guaranteed to have been a corpse at the time of discovery, nor every corpse to have been fully inspected by anyone at that time.

Yep. This definitely seems important.

idonotlikepeas posted:

George killed the others, pretended to be dead, then helped with the cleanup. He also pretends to be the voice on the phone, using a disguised voice, whenever Kanon isn't available to do it. He is later murdered by Kanon, which satisfies the condition that all of the apparent victims are dead.

This is my biggest issue with this theory. If this is the case, why the hell didn't he kill Battler? If he's a) willing to kill Jessica and Maria, and b) the ostensible reason for the murders is to take back the headship for Eva's branch of the Ushiromiya family, not killing the new head is incomprehensible, especially when he's in the room with George (alive) and two bodies George he has just finished butchering. He can't have known in advance that Battler wouldn't notice till the morning, and if he'd noticed that night, everything would have collapsed.

idonotlikepeas posted:

Hideyoshi also faked his death after chaining the door. The "nobody would mistake a corpse on examination" rule doesn't apply because Eva ensured she and Nanjo were the ones who "checked" the corpse, and then they moved it out of the room. Eva secured Nanjo's cooperation through bribery. Later, Hideyoshi is genuinely killed by Kanon too.

This isn't outside the realm of possibility either. It certainly explains how Hideyoshi knew to go to that room. And it aligns with the fact that Hideyoshi and Eva seemed likely suspects in episode 3. We still don't know exactly how Eva survived into the Ange timeline, but if there were two parallel conspiracies and one of them took the other one out, that would explain why her family was all dead if she were the culprit.

idonotlikepeas posted:

Erika is incompetent.

Unfortunately, Erika appears to be highly competent at framing people!

CottonWolf
Jul 20, 2012

Good ideas generator

Cyouni posted:

The only way the cousins/Rosa could be not-dead is if Nanjo were in on it the entire time, and if Battler and everyone else specifically did not look at the bodies when discovering them.

Actually the narration implies that Battler at least looked at all of the cousins and Rosa. But given the ambiguity in the "at a glance" red text, I'm not sure whether that confirms their deaths or not.

E: I may as well quote the relevant scene:

ProfessorProf posted:



BGM: String Trio #600 Million in F Sharp Minor

"This is just too much... How... could anyone get away with something like this...?!!"

As they clung to Aniki's corpse, which would never wake up again, Aunt Eva and Uncle Hideyoshi cried.

"...That's enough. Do you think George-kun would like the two of you to see him this way...? Of course not...!"
"...Aneki. I know how you feel, but let's have Doctor Nanjo handle this..."
"You don't understand!! George was killed! George!! Geoooooooooorge, ugghaaaaaaaaaaahhhhh!!"
"Doctor Nanjo is right. We mustn't keep looking at George in such a state... This is for George's sake! We have to restrain ourselves for now...!"

When Aunt Eva tried even harder to cling to that corpse, Dad and Uncle Hideyoshi dragged her away and had a heated debate with her beside the wall...

"No, nooooooooooooo!! Geooooooooorge!! Doctor Nanjo! Help him!! If he's lost too much blood, do a blood transfusion!! George and I are the same blood type!! I beg you! Doctor Nanjo!!"
"...Eva-san. It pains me to say this, but your blood can't do George-kun any good now..."

Doctor Nanjo shook his head slightly, then nodded across to where I stood, giving me a signal. I softly pulled the blanket up... covering George-aniki's corpse.



Of course not... The large amount of blood which had poured out stained the bed a horrible red and black, and even covering him with the blanket couldn't hide the traces left by the blood which had leaked out. After all, there were even large, red-black stains on the blanket, and covering him with it made his corpse look even more gruesome... So I stripped the blanket off of my bed and placed it on top of the first one. But there were only two extra blankets. So if we covered one more of the corpses, we wouldn't be able to cover any more.

I feel bad about the ones we can't cover, but for some reason, times like these make me feel like muttering 'don't complain about it being unfair' inside my head...

"...Kyrie. Put blankets over all of them. Wouldn't want them to catch cold."
"...Sure."

Kyrie-san and I covered the other corpses up to their heads with their blankets, just like George-aniki's... So that they wouldn't have to undergo any more shame... with their terrible wounds exposed like this...



Jessica was exactly the same as George-aniki. Though she appeared to be resting quietly in the bed... her neck had been sliced deep and the wound lay open in a brutal way... And Maria was the same.

...Not only Maria. There was one more victim. Lying on the same bed as though they had been sleeping alongside each other... was Aunt Rosa. George-aniki, Jessica, Maria, and Aunt Rosa.



They had probably been like that since last night. I'd returned without noticing anything, gotten in bed, and fallen asleep... All of them had a horizontal cut across their throats. I had been... forced to see all the way... into the depths of those gashes in everyone's throats... At worst, the wound might have been deep enough to stretch halfway through their necks. If you tried to open it up, you'd probably be able to see that the gash reached all the way to the bone.

The only wounds were the single gashes on each neck. So if you just covered their necks with your hand, you might be able to persuade yourself that they were merely sleeping. But even so, this frighteningly deep wound... was incredibly... gruesome... There's no such thing as 'clean' or 'dirty' ways of killing. All methods of killing are equally brutal. But even so, this was horribly... brutal...

And... there was one more thing which adorned these brutal murders to make them even more unsettling.



It was drawn in a bright red paint which looked like blood and made it look as though some creepy ceremony had taken place in this room, with the four of them offered as human sacrifices...

It's all narrated in first person and George is described as George-aniki, which at least implies that Battler saw it.

CottonWolf fucked around with this message at 21:24 on Apr 15, 2017

CottonWolf
Jul 20, 2012

Good ideas generator

KataraniSword posted:

The one point of contention on the reliability of her scenes is whether or not she actually spent all night listening to Battler breathing, and if so, why we didn't know about that before hand. :catstare:

I heard they edited out the adult content for the Western release.

curiousCat posted:

Seriously, though. So much of this red truth is devoted to establishing alibis. So we've got to accept them. And unless Krauss did it (doubtful), then we have to conclude that the people in thread shouting "PHRASING!" were absolutely right -- nobody would've mistaken the corpses for alive, because they were alive, there was no mistake.

Eh, I'm not sure about that. That's certainly one way of going about it, and it definitely makes sense as a solution, but it's also entirely possible that some of the red text for the alibis has loopholes in it that, given our collective incompetence, we've not spotted.

CottonWolf fucked around with this message at 12:17 on Apr 16, 2017

CottonWolf
Jul 20, 2012

Good ideas generator

That was the most cheerful of Easter updates.

Unless we want to hypothesise a witch, I can only see 3 possibilities, and I can't even follow the third through to a solution, though it seems important.

1. Genji did it. If we assume that Genji, like the other servants (and presumably Battler, as he'd now head and therefore a Kinzo), has multiple names, as that seems to be an Ushiromiya servant thing, then the red text Genji never left the mansion after 24:00 could be dodged in the same way that we've been implicating Kanon and Shannon, with name death. It'd be entirely possible for him to get to the guesthouse and back by 1:00. Though that means that he then couldn't have killed Rosa. We could posit that Genji or the body that the personality Genji inhabits was never sealed in the waiting room after 1:00, and was placed there by Kanon and Kumasawa in the morning when the crime was discovered, after he had committed suicide in the guesthouse after murdering the others. Kumasawa, being in the guesthouse, would have had the opportunity to transfer the corpse after her seal was broken in the morning. The servant's working together is entirely believable, but I don't have good whydunnit.

2. peas' theory is right, and one of the cousins/Rosa did it and was subsequently murdered.

3. The people in the dining room aren't who we think they are. This is more an observation than a theory at this point, but the game goes to great lengths to not tell us in red who's in the dining room. I can't work out what it gains from this, but it's perfectly happy to describe the state outside the dining room more or less perfectly, but it will always refer to everyone left as "the others" or "all of the people in the dining hall". The simple fact that it doesn't give us a list of names in red makes me hugely suspicious, it's not just this trial either. I went back for reread of the knocking section too, and Lambda does exactly the same dodge there. That said, even though I think this is probably a key point, I can't work out how this could lead to a solution, as the red text seems to rule out anyone in the dining hall interfering with the murders anyway. I can't even see anyone being missing, as we get a non-exclusionary list of people outside the mansion, Genji, Krauss and Natsuhi in the second floor corridor and everyone else in the dining hall. It's annoying. It really feels like this is the right route towards an answer, I just can't see where you go from here. E: To be precise, I guess the blue version of this allowing it to be misleading both ways is: The following statement is false: At 24:00, every one of Ushiromiya Battler, Ushiromiya Rudolf, Ushiromiya Kyrie, Shannon, Kanon, Ushiromiya Eva, Ushiromiya Hideyoshi and Ushiromiya Rosa existed in the dining hall, and no other people existed in the dining hall.

CottonWolf fucked around with this message at 16:58 on Apr 16, 2017

CottonWolf
Jul 20, 2012

Good ideas generator

Oh god. And I thought that power dynamics in that relationship were weird before...

CottonWolf
Jul 20, 2012

Good ideas generator

Tired Moritz posted:

for some reason, I thought Jessica was 16 and was confused why her classmates were gushing over a 14 year old.

Honestly, I'm surprised that George is so old, considering how the characters were amazed that he acted like an adult so much.

Yeah, I had him down as around 20. Does Japan have massively different expectations as to when people reach maturity?

CottonWolf
Jul 20, 2012

Good ideas generator

Er... Well. Um. That's sure not how I expected that to go.

Did Virgilia set him up?

CottonWolf
Jul 20, 2012

Good ideas generator

Tired Moritz posted:

Aww, I really thought Erika has to explain who the mystery caller is

The only people who could have made it are the cousins (we know there's a telephone in their room), or Kumasawa and Gohda (if they have telephones in their rooms). Everyone else has an alibi. Kumasawa was supposedly asleep, though that was never stated in red. We know Gohda didn't make the call the following morning, though that doesn't rule him out for the previous night. Genji seemingly looks like he could have done it, but considering that when Genji finished transferring the call, he immediately returned to the waiting room, he couldn't have possibly made it, because talking occurs after transferring, and he immediately did something else.

So if you could prove that none of them could have done it, you could also prove either the existence of an extra person, or the absence of a person from the dining hall, which would then break all the alibis. I don't buy any of the cousins as the caller just because how you you explain that to everyone else in the room. Kumasawa would have to use a voice changer, but that's possible, as is Gohda, basically as is.

Also, to update my (wholly unconvincing) Genji theory in light of the fact that all the murders were homicides:

Genji or the body that the personality Genji inhabits was never sealed in the waiting room after 1:00, and was placed there by Kanon and Kumasawa in the morning when the crime was discovered. He waited in the guesthouse overnight and was killed the following morning by Kanon or Kumasawa.

CottonWolf
Jul 20, 2012

Good ideas generator

lotus circle posted:

She has an ideal work-life balance that is highly respected.

Also, this...


...is the face of someone who loves their job.

CottonWolf
Jul 20, 2012

Good ideas generator

tiistai posted:

Set him up how? She held off on giving that red after Battler was already resolved to fight anyway.

She gave him a piece of red text she knew he would attempt to use. Whether or not she knew only witches were allowed to use it in the trial is the question. If she did, she set him up to fail, by vanishing when she knew she'd be required to announce it to the court. If she'd been there to say it, everything could have been avoided.

CottonWolf
Jul 20, 2012

Good ideas generator

Cyouni posted:

I still argue Krauss + someone is a viable option. Krauss was simply killed by whomever his partner was (or whoever) after that second call was made. Everyone but Krauss may have alibis for the first twilight, and Krauss may have died after that morning call was made, but that in no way stops Krauss from being the one responsible for the first twilight, and then being killed after that. There also haven't been any calls since then, so Krauss could very easily have been the caller.

That's possible, but only if Krauss and Genji are working together. Genji arrives to tell Natsuhi about the call when she and Krauss are together, so either Genji has to be in on it and is setting up for Krauss or Krauss didn't make the call.

CottonWolf
Jul 20, 2012

Good ideas generator

EagerSleeper posted:

Shouldn't this have been the easter update?

:golfclap:

CottonWolf
Jul 20, 2012

Good ideas generator

curiousCat posted:

"All deaths were homicides".

And if there were no deaths, then there were no homicides. Nothing happened that night. I don't know how, or why, but if everyone has an alibi, this is it. I know I sound crazy here but, like... this just sounds right to me.

It'd be a neat dodge, but it has two problems.

1. George, Jessica, Maria, Rosa, and Genji really are dead. So you then have to explain how they died later.
2. With a conspiracy so grand that literally EVERYONE has to be in on it, you get the problem that Battler both has to have been involved in the murders but not be capable of explaining how they were done before the court. Unless you want to hypothesis that Battler is the only person who doesn't know, but then you have explain why the hell all the cousins and Rosa are willing to get into elaborate stage makeup to trick Battler before getting murdered by persons unknown.

CottonWolf
Jul 20, 2012

Good ideas generator

Qrr posted:

Honestly Erika has pretty thoroughly ignored how Natsuhi could have done it and focused on how everyone else couldn't have done it. Because Erika is incompetent.

Thing is, opportunity is the only thing that makes this a complicated crime. The most basic formulation is, "Go into room, slit throats, wait until morning, exit room". It's not that hard to see how anyone could have done it physically. Focusing on how everyone else couldn't have done it is a smart play if all you care about is getting a conviction (and we know it is, since everyone's happy to ignore the fact that Natsuhi's objectively not the culprit).

CottonWolf
Jul 20, 2012

Good ideas generator

curiousCat posted:

1. Culprit [x] killed them later, at some point. Doesn't matter when, just that they are killed before now. Hell, they were poisoned during breakfast, I don't know. It doesn't matter. As long as they weren't killed last night, why would it matter?

It just means that the entire narrative of the second day is wrong. That's not a knock against the theory on a conceptual level, it just means that we know literally nothing about what's happening post the first night other than what's in the red text. (Though I hope your theory's wrong, as I've said before that I think a mass conspiracy would be the least satisfying conclusion to this.)

CottonWolf
Jul 20, 2012

Good ideas generator

ZiegeDame posted:

Now I'm betting it's that for this exact reason.

:( Don't conspire to upset me, Umineko.

CottonWolf
Jul 20, 2012

Good ideas generator

Rodyle posted:

quote:

I am the cruelest witch in the world. Whoever the opponent may be, I'll certainly make them surrender.

Hah. Natsuhi beat Bern.

E:

ProfessorProf posted:

I made a small but notably edit to the update, if you've already read it, check the bit after "does anyone need evidence to say they're in love". I changed the pacing of what is captured in screencaps and what isn't.

Well! Someone clearly broke Erika's heart.

CottonWolf fucked around with this message at 14:19 on Apr 18, 2017

CottonWolf
Jul 20, 2012

Good ideas generator

Shinji117 posted:

Bern is seriously the worst.

Not an emptyquote.

CottonWolf
Jul 20, 2012

Good ideas generator

Tender Child Loins posted:

Wow. Natsuhi is so much like a pitbull: unwilling to let go of a fight even when the potential boons of victory have been whittled down to nothing. And it's so sad when you realize that the murders and phone calls and violence are potentially just a ruse (ok maybe not the violence) to get her to confess this one thing. That she's willing to be burned at the stake over men who certainly weren't willing to put their egos, let alone their lives, on the line for her sake.

That said, I have a hard time feeling sympathy for people like her, who let their emotions override their ability to accurately assess and adapt to high pressure situations. I understand why she is like that, but it is hard to watch her flounder and fail to see opportunities to maneuver her way out of this or at least get people to see how she is a victim, too.

I actually respect that. She'd been put in an impossible position. At least not admitting anything was a "gently caress you" to Bern. It's not like if she'd been more rational she could have saved herself, at very best it reveals she's been lying about Kinzo still being alive, and her life remains a living hell at that point. Plus she probably then ends up being murdered down the line by the real killer. None of the pieces have any real power, they're puppets on strings. It seems like defiance before the witch is the best that they can hope to achieve. Also, while Kinzo's a dick, it feels like you might be defaming Krauss a bit there. He's certainly useless, but he actually seems like he might have become a good guy (though it sounds like in the past he definitely wasn't). He was certainly willing to risk dying to try and help Jessica in the last episode.

CottonWolf
Jul 20, 2012

Good ideas generator

Tender Child Loins posted:

gently caress Krauss.

Okay. Yeah. I'd selectively removed that from my memory.

CottonWolf
Jul 20, 2012

Good ideas generator

lotus circle posted:

Eva: Outright kills her family in EP 3, and thinks the suffering she endured in childhood is grounds to be a massive rear end in a top hat to everyone around her.

This was implied. But never proven. I still think it might be a misdirection, as you never hear Beatrice's solution and we came up with several ways that the murders could have happened without Eva being the killer.

CottonWolf
Jul 20, 2012

Good ideas generator

ZiegeDame posted:

It's not like he murdered Asumu or anything.

Probably.

CottonWolf
Jul 20, 2012

Good ideas generator

Cyouni posted:

Again, anyone can use the red. It's not accepted as fact if you're not part of the witch side, and if you're part of the detective side you can request for it to be repeated to lock down details.

Just to add to this, any red is still objectively true, human or witch side, it's just not admissible unless you're a witch. Because witches are horrible cheaters.

CottonWolf fucked around with this message at 12:21 on Apr 19, 2017

CottonWolf
Jul 20, 2012

Good ideas generator

I thought the fall was a genuine accident too... But something extra's going on with it. There's no way that Natsuhi just didn't hear the thud as the corpses hit the ground. Here's a theory:

Somehow the fall of the servant was broken, perhaps by vegetation on the cliff, or a rocky outcrop, and they hit the ground lightly, not dying on impact. The servant was murdered secondarily and the child hidden away. A corpse of another child was provided to act as the fake corpse of Natsuhi's baby.

tiistai posted:

Shame on you, anyone who even thought she might have been. Nappi would never kill anyone.

I should have known better than to trust the witches from witch chat.

CottonWolf fucked around with this message at 14:31 on Apr 19, 2017

CottonWolf
Jul 20, 2012

Good ideas generator

resurgam40 posted:

This leads me to the conclusion that whoever Cliff Baby is, Battler isn't it. But his outburst at the end here indicates that he was, at least involved... and very possibly could have made the calls on Cliff Baby's behalf. Which means- sorry, CottonWolf :sigh: - that I must once again drag out the "conspiracy" drum, because once again, it's the only way I can see how everything works.

It's okay. Much as it upsets me, it's consistent. I'm going to continue to try and find routes for it not to be true though!

In terms of the Cliff Baby as Battler thing, we hit the old piece-Battler/meta-Battler conflict. At what point does piece-Battler become independent of meta-Battler. Do piece- and meta- Battler diverge at the entrance to Rokkenjima, or is it before that? Basically, does meta-Battler know the same things piece-Battler knows prior to the arrival to Rokkenjima at every game?

Meta-Battler definitely doesn't know his parentage. Does that preclude piece-Battler from knowing it? Because Battler as accomplice/Cliff Baby only makes sense if their consciousnesses diverge prior to the arrival at Rokkenjima.

I still like Battler as Kyrie's child, but if we assume that Battler could be the Cliff Baby, we can get a pretty good theory about how it would have worked by combining BurningStone's and ZiegeDame's theories (plus a little wild speculation of my own). Just to clarify some terminology here; the character who fixes the vase for Kuwadorian child, I'm calling Beatrice I, Kuwadorian child I'm calling Beatrice II, and "1986 Killer Beatrice" I'm calling Beatrice III.

Kinzo only seems to care about Beatrice, and not really even about his direct children. Therefore Kinzo going to any lengths for an unrelated baby seems unlikely, as thetruegentleman pointed out. Therefore, I present the blue text from ZiegeDame's theory:

Beatrice II is the child of Kinzo and Beatrice I. The character currently known as Ushiromiya Battler is the child of Kinzo and Beatrice II. Therefore, being both Kinzo's son and a direct relative of Beatrice, Kinzo values him. Also, he is the grandson of Kinzo and thus qualified to be Beatrice III's opponent in the meta-game.

We then switch to BurningStone's theory almost unchanged, excepting that Kyrie's miscarriage is a red herring:

Natsuhi cannot conceive. After Beatrice II's death, Kinzo needs someone to raise his child by Beatrice II. He gives this child to Natsuhi under the pretence that he came from an orphanage. Natsuhi attempts to kill the character currently known as Battler, but fails to kill anyone. Kinzo finds out. Kills the servant to hush it up, and arranges that her corpse and that of another baby are found later. He never forgives Natsuhi. The original Ushiromiya Battler, who is Rudolf and Asumu's son, dies. Kinzo arranges for them to adopt the current-Battler.

E: Of course, this requires his Ange to be his a metaphorical rather than literal sister.

CottonWolf fucked around with this message at 20:21 on Apr 19, 2017

CottonWolf
Jul 20, 2012

Good ideas generator

ZiegeDame posted:

I think there's pretty conclusive circumstantial evidence that 'Beatrice I' aka 'Virgilia' is just Kumasawa, who aside from Genji, Nanjo, and Kinzo is the only person who knows Beatrice II exists, and was likely her primary caretaker.

I also don't like Cliff Baby being relevant to the central mystery for the simple fact that it isn't presented until EP5, and we know that all the mysteries are solvable using only information presented in EPs 1-4. For that reason I'm inclined to believe it's just a sin from Natsushi's past that can be used to torture her, as well as elaboration on Kinzo's monstrosity that motivated half of the conspirators.

Yeah, I'm definitely still more on board with the Battler is Kyrie's son theory.

CottonWolf
Jul 20, 2012

Good ideas generator

oblongmeow posted:

For what it's worth, this part of the timeline is relatively unambiguous by Umineko standards. We have in red that the events between Rosa and Beatrice 2 took place in 1967, 19 years ago.

Which is why a baby also appearing suddenly 19 years ago is particularly suspicious.

CottonWolf
Jul 20, 2012

Good ideas generator

You can't keep a good Battler down.

E: Hah. I only just noticed that the logo for the game has changed from Beatrice to what I assume is Battler reading a murder mystery. Cute.

CottonWolf fucked around with this message at 13:01 on Apr 21, 2017

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CottonWolf
Jul 20, 2012

Good ideas generator

Ralphomon posted:

Excited to see how Battler gets off that sword (pulling it through himself hiltwards like Dante from the first Devil May Cry?)

What do you do when you get to the hilt? Tip it over, then slide all the way back down to to the other end? That sounds very painful and inefficient.

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