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Peel
Dec 3, 2007

labour right is incompetent and opposed by the press, corbyn is more incompetent and seen as terrifying anathema by the press

the meaningful battle has for a while been to secure a left wing power base in post-corbyn labour

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Peel
Dec 3, 2007

the tories will win the election with an increased majority though, i guess shortly before the cps reveals that actually the whole last parliament was illegitimate

Peel
Dec 3, 2007

the approximate british consensus is that the empire was maybe a bit rude so don't brag around outsiders but we civilised the savages and they should be grateful

Peel
Dec 3, 2007

Jose posted:

labour might have done better with someone else as leader but they're still getting hosed because the tories are really popular since brexit killed UKIP and brexit is really popular.

That and labour MP's are on the whole a load of poo poo and trying to name one who would be a good replacement goes nowhere

just trying to think for five minutes about what a right-labourist brexit strategy would be is enough to lose hope in them

centre-left parties have been declining all over the western world. the democrats were a hollow shell and then trump broke the shell. the parti socialiste were a footnote in the election to replace their own incumbent president. SYRIZA got in because PASOK collapsed. another plastic smiler might stem the bleed a little but they wouldn't be saving labour

Peel
Dec 3, 2007

the press keeps trying to hype blair as a returning king arthur only to stall against the fact that he's even less popular than corbyn despite corbyn having the worst press of any major politician since uh, the last labour leader lol

Peel
Dec 3, 2007

all sane solutions to the Greek crisis are some variation on the debt being written off entirely, but that decision isn't in the greek government's hands. the eurozone is dominated by weird sadomonetarists who have limited greek options to one or another form of self-harm, and they get condemned for whichever one they choose.



purestrain neoliberal choice fetishism. give people two bad options, then 1. tell them they're free, because they had a choice, and 2. blame them for what happens, because it was their choice.

Peel
Dec 3, 2007

Tacky-rear end Rococco posted:

why would anyone ever agree to that? What's your definition of sanity?

because it can be shouldered by the eurozone as a whole with barely a flinch because it is (as a whole) a sovereign currency at no risk of default or economic collapse. private sector creditors can be protected from the consequences of their irresponsible lending by printing them some euros, and a reviving greek economy can proceed to produce goods and services for everyone in the trading bloc. on the other hand insisting greece pay it back drip by drip causes immense suffering in an eu member state while failing to actually resolve the debt problem because the economy shattered by austerity can't pay back loans effectively.

i suppose as an alternative you could just refinance it at a cheap-as-free interest rate and wait for it to inflate away


this is 'austerity was poo poo' 101, have you been living under a rock for the last decade

Peel
Dec 3, 2007

okay, I see what you're objecting to. i guess you could do a 50% haircut if you wanted but why, besides political pressure from moralists? once you're out of the moralist frame of mind that insists on the sanctity of the lender's ledger, why bother?

a limited haircut is certainly more politically feasible, but only because of the pervasiveness of that moralism, which is what I'm mad about



but sure, a massive haircut sufficient to avoid the problems of austeirity would also work, let's not harden our positions over hyperbole

Peel
Dec 3, 2007

Fallen Hamprince posted:

extremely wise marx boy: the eu should just let greece have a mulligan and write off all its debt, that would definitely not set an unsustainable precedent for other eurozone members and would be extremely popular with core eu voters

the implication here is that the euro is unsound at a basic level because of this split, which gives you a choice between giant moral hazard and policy impotence in the face of recession. writing off the periphery debt sounds less wacky when it's in the context of overhauling how the entire euro works or just abolishing the thing. there have been some attempts to overhaul it but they're hobbled by needing to adhere to austerian orthodoxy.

but even given that situation, the hypothetical future danger of moral hazard is much better than the actually existing death and destitution arising from enforced austerity.



other things popular with voters but widely understood to be stupid as hell: trump, brexit

Peel
Dec 3, 2007

it's kind of surreal contrasting the tory reputation for 'competence' with what's actually happened under their governments

i mean they're bad for the economy in general, to use liberal metrics, but cameron-may in particular may actually destroy the union and be a turning point toward substantially diminished global status

'competence' in press reporting terms is a matter of signifying deference to capital and established interests more than demonstrating any kind of effectiveness

Tacky-rear end Rococco posted:

e: Peel you're still deliberately ignoring the predictable adverse consequences to what you're proposing.

i think i just don't think they're that predictable or important. they're intuitive, but those intuitions were shaped by the same ideology that told us we needed austerity. developed countries since 2008, and japan since 1991 have proven you can play a lot of silly buggers with debt

Peel
Dec 3, 2007

normally i scoff at hyperinflation scaremongering because it's an actual collapse of the monetary system attending a collapse of the economic system, but greece defaulting and leaving the euro (and inviting immense EU hostility ala britain) would be enough of a shock that I wouldn't count it out in that case, not being an expert on the topic

but that's why i focus on eurozone creditor intransigence. it's pointless to play the blame game at someone trapped in a trap from a saw movie trying to decide what to do when jigsaw himself is sat right next to you rambling on about Fiscal Responsibility and being lauded in the press for it

Peel
Dec 3, 2007

yeah i think we mostly agree

i've been Mad About The Eurozone for the better part of a decade. i'm a prisoner of ideology.

Peel
Dec 3, 2007

the corbyns and blairs really need to come to a power-sharing agreement

now that northern ireland is going to go over to the other side maybe the veteran negotiators can come help sort out the labour party

Peel
Dec 3, 2007

Jose posted:

i was feeling vaguely optimistic about the election when i went to sleep last night and woke up to this really poo poo news

Peel
Dec 3, 2007

it doesn't really matter what corbyn does, people will go to the flag party after this and that's the tories

Peel
Dec 3, 2007

Pener Kropoopkin posted:

If Sean Hannity worked for a British tabloid they would have given him a bonus for the Seth Rich stuff.

when I read up on that I was like 'feels like home'

Peel
Dec 3, 2007

this sort of thing is stuff that everyone who knows anything about foreign policy or international relations has been saying for years, economics isn't the only place where central media/political discourse takes place in fantasy land

Peel
Dec 3, 2007

labour will be the biggest party and then 1/3 of their mps will agree to prop up a May government

Peel
Dec 3, 2007

i refuse to believe election day won't deliver the tories a solid vote margin and an increased majority

i'm just not ready to go there yet

Peel
Dec 3, 2007

Jose posted:

she doesn't have to because our press are dogshit and love her

i understand why it happens but it's still surreal to see such a catastrophic government get such support

tories 2010-present are at least the worst government since the suez crisis and depending on what happens with scotland might end up being the worst since the great war

Peel
Dec 3, 2007

Whoever owns YouGov is going to be the only capitalist in the country praying for a great Labour showing.

Peel
Dec 3, 2007

tbh even a poor tory showing that returns a majority but topples the leader could count as a happy outcome, brexit is still to come and better someone competent than theresa 'what is negotiating' may

Peel
Dec 3, 2007

corbyn is a social democrat and not even all that left from a perspective that includes actual communist parties, it's unsurprising if some revolutionary socialists don't like him. they don't really go for 'move the country in X direction by winning elections' as a strategy

'establishment puppet' is a bit of a lol though

Peel
Dec 3, 2007

if redkahina has taught me anything it's that anyone right of pol pot is a cop


luckily she hasn't

Peel
Dec 3, 2007

lol

let's combine electoralism and revolutionism, to gain the strengths of neither and the weaknesses of both

Peel
Dec 3, 2007

not that anyone itt follows their line but the graun endorsed labour, I wondered if they'd go lib dem

Peel
Dec 3, 2007

yeah it was a wonder from back when it looked like labour might infight their way to oblivion, before corbyn took off the training weights

Peel
Dec 3, 2007

brexit will achieve that by destroying the entity known as the 'UK' when scotland & NI leave

Peel
Dec 3, 2007

though The United Kingdom of England and Wales would be a funny pose

Peel
Dec 3, 2007

the only nuclear threat scenario the uk might face in corbyn's lifetime even in clancytown would be some kind of general nato-russia escalation spiral in which case britain's own threat posture is irrelevant unless we actually escalate ourselves, which only may might be stupid enough to do

Peel
Dec 3, 2007

it's not that a nuclear deterrent is or isn't useless so much as that the whole issue is a near-irrelevancy only important in the fever dreams of nationalist death cultists

Peel
Dec 3, 2007

yeah but they don't open the envelope until the ceremony next week

Peel
Dec 3, 2007

that's what they told friends and family but there's a reason they don't let anyone go down to the cellar

Peel
Dec 3, 2007

oliwan posted:

Also who loving thinks about nuclear weapons so much so that it becomes a factor in determining who you vote for

Peel
Dec 3, 2007

Corek posted:

is every politician in britain widely despised

whenever you hear about blair coming back to Save Labour remember that he's literally one of the least popular human beings in the country

Peel
Dec 3, 2007

CottonWolf posted:

I hate to give UKIP any credit for anything, but refusing to stop campaigning because it's what the terrorists would have wanted is the right decision imo.

stopping campaigning less than a week from the general election is ludicrous in itself

Peel
Dec 3, 2007

ya

Peel
Dec 3, 2007

Bulgogi Hoagie posted:

hak has reasonable opinions and he's pro corbyn what more do you want

recognising the rights and full humanity of the palestinian people

Peel
Dec 3, 2007

maybe it's because they're still where they were a decade or two ago while the commons tories have jumped off the deep end. remnants of staid patrician torydom rather than the death cult

if corbyn somehow gets in we'll remember why they're poo poo right quick

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Peel
Dec 3, 2007

anything other than the tories having a hefty vote advantage and an increased majority tomorrow is a really good performance relative to the information we have

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