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Leperflesh
May 17, 2007

So did the NFL bring back the [D]oubtful status?

wait maybe it was [P]robable that's gone now

Football's been over for like three months so my brain has flushed all my football knowledge down the toilet and I have to re-learn everything in august

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Leperflesh
May 17, 2007

VietCampo posted:

Anyone starting up a brand new dynasty draft anytime soon? I've never tried dynasty but i've been dying to try it out and none of my RL friends are willing to try it.

We have an open slot in the I Paid What for Who? dynasty money league, if you're interested! We had a guy bail out. The annual dues are $25 + 1/12th of the cost of the MFL league fees, and there's a cash payout for first through third place plus the winner of the consolation tournament bracket.

Here's the thread: https://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=3740832
Here's the league: http://www64.myfantasyleague.com/2016/home/79286
Here's our rules: https://docs.google.com/document/d/1UnTCMrEn7Wx5ofw_mG_ke_htdtVIY1LZWr907Cx8gn8/edit?usp=sharing
Here's what would be your team: http://www64.myfantasyleague.com/2016/options?L=79286&O=07&F=0002

2016 player salaries are still listed, so all the salaries will be going up by 10%, you'll have an opportunity to drop players, and then we'll have our free agent & rookie draft shortly before the season begins.

e. I'll be honest, though, this team went 2-12 last year and needs serious rebuilding. But we have a salary cap system so if you dump garbage players and work hard during the year on the waiver wire there's no reason you couldn't turn it around in a year.

RCarr posted:

Is a dynasty league doable on ESPN or Yahoo? Or is MFL the way to go? My redraft league is on Yahoo, so I'd like to keep both on the same website if possible. Nothing is set in stone regarding dynasty rules yet, but we are looking to start one up this year.

We ran our dynasty league on ESPN the first year and then switched to MFL. It's possible to do it on Yahoo or ESPN, but their options for customization of your league are fairly limited. You cannot do things like taxi squads, trade draft picks for players, automatically adjust player salaries, etc. However they are free.

The cost for an MFL league if you sign up during the summer and defray the cost across all the owners is pretty minimal, though.

When setting up dynasty league rules I highly recommend being completely explicit and thorough. It can be a pain in the rear end and people will call you a nerd but anticipating and ruling on the key sources of friction will help a lot. It's more important to get it right with dynasty than it is with a normal redraft league for obvious reasons. Even more important if there's money involved.

The most critical things I'd say is making sure that people don't burn out, especially anyone with a losing team. Also make sure the one guy who was lucky enough to draft a rookie David Johnson doesn't forever dominate the league... e.g., escalate player salaries or have player contracts that end after 3-5 years or whatever you need to do to ensure there's gradual turnover of ownership. Make sure you have rules in place for how disputes will be handled, and don't succumb to the temptation to change rules mid-season.

Leperflesh fucked around with this message at 20:55 on May 2, 2017

Leperflesh
May 17, 2007

Sure that's cool. I wasn't even bothering to try to recruit until maybe early August because that's when goons start really paying attention to fantasy football again.

Sataere posted:

Beer, this is what I was talking about.

Thanks! Yeah feel free to link them if you want Beer, although they are gonna get changed periodically as the league votes for rules changes.

Leperflesh
May 17, 2007

Evaluating rookies pre-pre-season is a total crapshoot. Even the best NFL teams can't do it reliably. A huge percentage of first round NFL draft picks are busts and another huge chunk stay in the NFL but wind up clearly not having been worth a first round pick. If someone is ranking rookies before they've even seen pre-season games, and they manage to get even like 30% right, they're doing fantastically in my opinion.

From a fantasy perspective, everything is a huge gamble, most of your team should be veterans. In Dynasty you have to grab some rookies just for the chance that you get a Zeke or a David Johnson but just assume you won't, and play accordingly.

Leperflesh
May 17, 2007

drizzle posted:

Judging a class of rookies after one year is really stupid guys

If you're not playing a keeper/dynasty league, rookie ratings only matter for one year... or really just until the draft.

Leperflesh
May 17, 2007

Azhais posted:

http://nesn.com/2017/05/this-espn-fantasy-football-scoring-change-could-greatly-affect-your-league/

ESPN is no longer going to count touchdowns given up by the offense against your DST.

:aaaaa: I've been pissed off about this for literally years


shaking with rage since 2013


e. They're still counting the ensuing PAT, lol yes it's the D/ST's fault if that PAT is made.

Leperflesh
May 17, 2007

RCarr posted:

At least the defense is actually on the field when it's scored.

Sure, and if they block it they should get credit. But if you lose a game because your D/ST gave up exactly enough points to hit the next scoring drop you won't be too happy about it.

I mean it actually doesn't affect me at all any more because I only play IDP leagues now. But it's funny that ESPN took this long to make the rule change, given I'm pretty sure all the others (NFL, Yahoo, maybe CBS) already did it right and have been for years.

Leperflesh
May 17, 2007

lol your league is stupid

A ton of rookies will wash out and not even be on a team by week 1. And a bunch will be injured. Why would you do a rookie draft in May?

I don't think you're gonna find a great rookie ranking thing. For dynasty I'd just assume the NFL teams did their homework and stick to dudes drafted in the first two rounds, or anyone who fell a lot solely due to an injury that you're sure they'll recover from. And of course avoid the draft picks made by the really lovely teams.

Leperflesh
May 17, 2007

I realized I made an unwarranted assumption.

In my dynasty league, we use FAAB and there is no way to get a player for free. And we have a salary cap and an annual spending limit on FAAB.

So if you load up on a bunch of lottery tickets in the rookie draft and then have to dump half of them in August, you're eating into your budget to replace them with more lottery tickets. Having to churn through rookies degrades your ability to manage your team during the regular season.

So we do our rookie draft shortly before week 1 kicks off, and that way nobody is wasting roster spots or FAAB dollars on dudes who are not going to make the final cut.

Leperflesh
May 17, 2007

Tight end chat. I just made this chart for the slow draft, because I was curious, so you guys might as well see it too.

The question was: how often do rookie tight ends contribute? With regards to when to draft a guy like Njoku. So, I put together the stats, with notes, on every first and second round TE drafted 2006-2016:
pre:
year	round	name			team		school		games 	catches/yards/TDs	Notes
2016	2	Hunter Henry		Chargers	Arkansas	15	36/478/8		TE1 Antonio Gates was injured part of 2016
2015	2	Maxx Williams		Ravens		Minnesota	14	32/268/1		Injured, IR oct 2016
2014	1	Eric Ebron		Lions		North Carolina	13	25/248/1
2014	2	Austin Seferian-Jenkins	Buccaneers	Washington	9	21/221/2		injured, IR dec 2014
2014	2	Jace Amaro		Jets		Texas Tech	14	38/345/2		
2014	2	Troy Niklas		Cardinals	Notre Dame	7	3/38/0			blocking TE
2013	1	Tyler Eifert		Bengals		Notre Dame	15	39/445/2
2013	2	Zach Ertz		Eagles		Stanford	16	36/469/4
2013	2	Gavin Escobar		Cowboys		San Diego State	16	9/134/2			was supposed to be a catching TE
2013	2	Vance McDonald		49ers		Rice		15	8/119/0			TE2 behind Vernon Davis
2012	2	Coby Fleener		Colts		Stanford	12	26/281/2		
2011	2	Kyle Rudolph		Vikings		Notre Dame	15	26/249/3		recovering from hammy, thrown to by Christian Ponder
2011	2	Lance Kendricks		Rams		Wisconsin	15	28/352/0		rams
2010	1	Jermaine Gresham	Bengals		Oklahoma	15	52/471/4		franchise record catches by rookie TE
2010	2	Rob Gronkowski		Patriots	Arizona		16	42/546/10		lol
2009	1	Brandon Pettigrew	Lions		Oklahoma State	11	31/352/2		Injured, IR Dec 1st 2009
2009	2	Richard Quinn		Broncos		North Carolina	15	0/0/0			never actually played any of these games
2008	1	Dustin Keller		Jets		Purdue		16	48/535/3		Brett Favre
2008	2	John Carlson		Seahawks	Notre Dame	16	55/627/5		Seahawks had many WR injuries this year
2008	2	Fred Davis		Redskins	USC		11	3/27/0			Barely played, was a fuckup
2008	2	Martellus Bennett	Cowboys		Texas A&M	16	20/283/4		Played behind Jason Witten
2007	1	Greg Olsen		Bears		Miami (FL)	14	39/391/2		injured knee, missed first two games
2007	2	Zach Miller		Raiders		Arizona State	16	44/444/3		No, the other Zach Miller, not the one still playing
2006	1	Vernon Davis		49ers		Maryland	10	20/265/3		Injured Sept 06, fractured fibula, returned Nov 19
2006	1	Marcedes Lewis		Jaguars		UCLA		15	13/126/1		Blocked more than catches, but was drafted to catch. Lol jags
2006	2	Joe Klopfenstein	Rams		Colorado	16	20/226/1		lol rams
2006	2	Anthony Fasano		Cowboys		Notre Dame	16	14/126/0		Primarily blocked, behind TE Jason Witten
My conclusion is yes, they often do, although there are probably a similar number of busts as for any other position.

Leperflesh
May 17, 2007

This is in the context of rookie drafts for Fantasy, yes. For a redraft league, you shouldn't be drafting most veteran TEs before the mid-late rounds, much less taking a flyer on a rookie.

Also, Megatron was drafted as a tight end? Huh.

Also also, I don't think ranking by points per game across a season is necessarily the right way to evaluate a rookie. Presumably many rookies will be eased in later in the season: even in a redraft league, you'd be picking them up as a stash, not your TE1 that you start week 1. I'd rather see their PPG for games they actually played in.

And finally, I was careful to take notes, because as with all players, situation matters and trumps most other considerations. Also your evaluation of the given team's ability to draft well. E.g., don't trust a TE drafted in the first 2 rounds by the Rams. Pay more attention to guys drafted to clearly be the catching TE1 on their team. vs someone who is clearly going to be an understudy to a star catching TE that is still on the team. Except if the star gets injured, then definitely go back in time and draft them.

Leperflesh
May 17, 2007

Ok well:

"Contribute" does not mean "can be a TE1 on a fantasy team." It just means, how often do they matter at all? And in the slow draft, we're playing Best Ball, so average is irrelevant assuming you have at least two TEs. Probably most teams will end up with three or more, if previous years are any indication. So, how often is a rookie tight end at least as useful as any other TE2+ in best ball format? Average ppg isn't going to give you that answer at all, you need to see if they had any games with high fantasy performance where they'd bubble up to being meaningful in best ball.

In dynasty, you're generally in a rookie draft, and at some point in that rookie draft, you might start considering a tight end. As part of that consideration, you'd wonder if any rookie TE will "contribute" that year, e.g., potentially be startable, particularly if your starter TE is hurt.

In redraft, you should probably only have one TE on your team, period, and there are at least 12 non-rookie TEs worth having, so if you don't get one of the top four or five, just get any of the rest in some late round and whatever. Trying to pick a rookie TE to be your only TE in a normal redraft league is a fools' errand, and I did not intend to imply otherwise.

As for your charts:
Hunter Henry was useful in weeks 4, 5 and 6, and then again week 14. Figuring out that you needed to start him those weeks would suck, but in best ball? Sure.

I feel like you're making my point for me with the others... they all had probably a week or two or maybe three in which they'd contribute in Best Ball, or in which they'd have been a serviceable emergency backup for a TE1/2 in a dynasty league as a stash. You called Eifert "useless" but he had two or three weeks of useable production (depending on scoring).

What is your standard here? If you're measuring "useful" TE points against the top five, that's way more than I was suggesting. Ignoring those top five guys, what is the average production of any fantasy tight end? Assume a 12-team league, so TEs numbered (say) 6-12 average how many points per game? Tight ends loving suck, we all know that, so if your backup dude can get you 8 points, that's a win.

Leperflesh
May 17, 2007

Spoeank posted:

LF at this point I honestly don't know when and where you're advocating taking a rookie TE. You called them stashes, which literally indicates a standard redraft league.

...huh. OK, so, there's no stashes in dynasty?

Lemme be clear, in a standard redraft league you should only draft the minimum number of TEs you are required to have on your roster, and that probably means not drafting a rookie tight end, period.

Leperflesh
May 17, 2007


https://twitter.com/pff_jeff/status/804009964796682240

e. that was before the end of the season. He finished the season at 4 drops on 45 targets for an 8.9% rating, but also that is low enough volume that the percentage number isn't very significant. He caught 53.3% of his targets, but we also have to take that number with a big spoonfull of salt because of who was throwing to him and those dude's terrible accuracy.

https://www.sportingcharts.com/nfl/stats/drops/2016/

Brandon Bolden's drop rate was 50%

e.2 Demetrius Harris, TE KC caught 17 passes on 31 targets, and dropped six, for a drop rate of 19.4%.

Leperflesh fucked around with this message at 19:34 on May 23, 2017

Leperflesh
May 17, 2007

Vance McDonald can block too though. I know the rumor was that the niners were shopping him during the draft, but now I'm not sure what Shanahan is gonna do with him.

Leperflesh
May 17, 2007

I'm pretty sure you said something nice about him in last year's thread

Leperflesh
May 17, 2007

Do you guys set rookie salaries by draft position in your dynasty leagues?

In my league I'm sure there's some teams desperate for QBs, but I suspect nobody wants to be paying Trubisky like 20$ in cap space in year 1, either.

Leperflesh
May 17, 2007

Sataere posted:

If you have salaries, isn't it an auction?

We do FAAB all year, and held an auction for the initial startup draft. But our rookie/free agent draft isn't: we award good draft position for the first couple rounds according to placement in the previous year:

The first, second, third, and fourth-place teams, and the consolation bracket winner, are seeded into the last five slots of the draft, in reverse order of standings.
From the remaining teams, the four teams that scored the lowest amount of points through the regular season are randomly seeded into the first four draft picks.
The remaining three teams are randomly seeded into the three remaining slots.

We run non-snake for the first two rounds in that order, and then switch to snake. We set rookie salaries as so:
The first four picks in the first round are paid $20
The fifth through eighth picks are paid $18
The ninth through twelfth picks are paid $16
All players drafted in the second round are paid $8
All players drafted in the third round are paid $4
All players drafted in the fourth round are paid $2
All remaining drafted players (fifth and later rounds) are paid $1

And each team has 100 FAAB dollars for the year, and a salary cap of $250.

e. startup draft, everyone had $200 for bidding with, and all owned players' salaries go up by the greater of 10% or $1 each summer, so most teams are near their cap.

Leperflesh fucked around with this message at 20:37 on May 26, 2017

Leperflesh
May 17, 2007

RCarr posted:

So if you bid $25 FAAB on a player, do they cost $25(+10%) to keep next year?

Yeah, $28 against your cap space the next year. So having a high pick in the rookie draft is a mixed bag; there needs to be a player worth the cap space to draft. But we allow trades of players and picks, so if you have an early pick you don't want, you aren't forced to make cap space for it, someone is gonna want that pick.

So far it seems to be a good system, but we might have to institute a maximum contract length because for example David Johnson was picked up for a dollar and unless the owner is forced to drop him, he'll be an insane bargain for the entirety of his career.

Leperflesh
May 17, 2007

none of that is a refutation of the prediction that with maclin gone, kelce will get more targets, which is what was proposed

Leperflesh
May 17, 2007

is gronk any better? People draft him in the first round

Leperflesh
May 17, 2007

I predict at least three of this year's top ten TEs will be guys will come out of nowhere, e.g., guys that nobody drafted in standard formats.

Leperflesh
May 17, 2007

Teemu do you not understand the concept of positional scarcity, or do you just reject it as a drafting strategy

Leperflesh
May 17, 2007

QB
RB
RB
WR
WR
WR/TE
RB/TE
TE
[IDP positions]

WR: 0.5ppr
RB: 1ppr
TE: 1.5ppr

Leperflesh
May 17, 2007

List of receivers who got at least 5 targets in 16 regular season games in 2016:

Mike Evans
Odell Beckham Jr.
Antonio Brown
TY Hilton
Demaryius Thomas

Leperflesh
May 17, 2007

The goon money dynasty league "I paid what for who?" has two open teams. I'm planning to recruit at the end of the summer, but pm me if you're interested.


Also, slow draft 1 ended, let's do slow draft 2

Leperflesh
May 17, 2007

Yeah comparing players across positions cannot be done purely on a points basis. You must account for positional scarcity - that is, if you rank all of the players in a given position by how many points they get, how much does the rest of the field fall off after each guy in order?

Consider these two made up sets of numbers. Each row represents a list of players playing a certain position (WR, or TE, or RB, etc.), and each number is the average points per week of that player.

Position A: 14, 13.9, 13.8, 13.8, 13.7. 13.2, 12, 11, 9.4, 9, 8, 8, 7.9, 7.8, 7.5, 7.4, 7.3, 7.3, 7.1, 7.1, 7, 7, 6.9, 6.9, 6.8, 6.8, 6.8, 6.8, 6.7, 6.6,
Position B: 14, 13, 12.5, 10.9, 9.3, 9.1, 8.5, 8, 7.8, 7.3, 7, 6.9, 6.9, 6.8, 6.7, 6.7, 6.5, 6.3, 6.3,6.2, 6.1, 6.1, 6, 5.9, 5.9, 5.8, 5.7, 5.6, 5.5, 5.4

Both of these lists have 30 numbers in them so we're looking at the top 30 players in two positions. Both lists start at 14 points.

But imagine that the first two players in each position are already off the board. Simply going by points, you'd take the 13.8 ppg player in Position A over the 12.5ppg position in Position B, right?

Well, no, maybe not. Because after the 12.5 guy in position B, there's a big drop off - the next guy down is only 10.9, and after that it's another big drop to 9.3. Whereas in Position A, it'll take another six players before you get down below 9.3. In other words, there is a scarcity in Position B in the range of about 8 through 14 points (only 8 players in that range) while in Position A, there is less scarcity (12 players in that range).

If you are drafting to build a team, you want your total points to beat your opponents. The value a given player represents is how many points you can get in that position compared to how many points your opponents can get in the same position. Taking the 12.5ppg guy in Position B gives you an advantage over all but two of your opponents that is larger than the advantage you gain by taking the 13.8ppg guy in Position A.

Mind you, this is not the only consideration: you may have to start more guys in Position A than B (say, WRs vs. TEs), there might be more variance from week to week (so a given player might be more risky but with more upside than another), and of course, you cannot actually know how many points per week a player will get you, all you can do is look at past performance and then modify based on your guesstimation of future performance.

But, because positional scarcity is a thing, you can't just rank all football players across all positions by how many points you think they'll earn, and then always draft the guy who is the most points.

Leperflesh
May 17, 2007

If it's a snake draft, your first pick is at the very end of the second round, and that's fairly awful: getting two extra dudes in the third and fifth rounds is not in my opinion making up for your best player being the 28th guy left on the board. Also, keep in mind your roster is presumably limited so you're also giving up your last two draft picks.

If it's not a snake draft, then it's not nearly as bad, but still not a trade I'd have made. Pick 1.1 in redraft being Zeke Elliot is potentially league-winning, especially if you can keep him for multiple years.

Leperflesh
May 17, 2007

Teemu Pokemon posted:

He's got 1.14, 2.14, 3.1, 3.14, 4.14, 5.1 and 5.14, not starting with 2.14 don't know where you're getting that from. It'd also not really matter that much if it's a snake or not since he's getting the last pick in those rounds regardless. It's not really all that different waiting those 14 picks from 1.14 to 2.14, than it would be from 1.1 to 2.14 provided he gets someone good in the 1st

My fault. For some reason I missed that he got the other guy's first. Yeah that's not nearly as bad, and could be an OK trade depending on the keeper rules.

Leperflesh
May 17, 2007

Yeah in most keeper leagues, you keep someone for their original draft spot, or their spot minus a round or two, something like that. Sometimes a first-round pick can't even be kept. Under those conditions, a lottery ticket is great because your 10th-round pick explodes, you keep him for an 8th, and you get to build a monster team.

With your current rules, a sure thing is always better than a lottery ticket. Zeke will be drafted 1.1 and then kept forever because keepers are effectively all costing their owners only their final round picks (e.g., when the roster fills completely they can't draft any more players). If you keep seven players then they're costing you your last seven rounds and you still have your early round picks to grab more good players.

This is not in my opinion a good way to run a keeper league.

Leperflesh
May 17, 2007


What's going on with the N/A rows at TE and WR?

Leperflesh
May 17, 2007

Someone explain how scott fish bowl has 720 teams, there's not enough NFL players so I assume a player can be owned by more than one team? For some reason this aspect is not covered on the site at all.

e. Is it that each "division" of 12 teams shares one pool of the NFL players?

Leperflesh fucked around with this message at 17:47 on Jun 28, 2017

Leperflesh
May 17, 2007

Why is the article dated Feb. 1978?

Leperflesh
May 17, 2007

Drunk Nerds posted:

So... what should we call this extremely large league?

Something's Fishy Bowl

Leperflesh
May 17, 2007

Papes posted:

2.5 total

So, draft gronk at 1.1 even though it's a 2qb league? Is that the intent?

Leperflesh
May 17, 2007

OK, so Slow Draft II has turned into a mock redraft draft. As promised, I'm gonna do a Slow Draft III.
https://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=3825310
Post in the thread if you want to do it!

Leperflesh
May 17, 2007

Pancakes by Mail posted:

Am I a total clown to even consider drafting Amari Cooper over Antonio Brown in a keeper league?

I told myself not to overvalue youth but THAT YOUTH

Yes. Antonio Brown is only (just turning) 29, and Amari Cooper is splitting fantasy points with Crabtree, despite being nominally the #1 WR on the team.

If you want a younger player, take Odell Beckham Jr. (age 24).

Or Julio Jones is also 28.

e. OK you edited your post. But uh, Antonio Brown is already gone, dude. I don't like Cooper in round 1, even in dynasty.

e2. Jordy Nelson is 32, but I'd still take him there over Cooper. Maybe T.Y. Hilton too (age 27).

Oh if it's snake I guess maybe take Jordy and Cooper? Who are you thinking for your #1 RB?

Leperflesh fucked around with this message at 01:38 on Jul 1, 2017

Leperflesh
May 17, 2007

Pancakes by Mail posted:

Yeah sorry about that, somehow I'd missed AB going at #5 (it's a slow draft, I miss emails).

#1 RB out of who's left, hoping for Gurley or Melvin Gordon. First time doing IDP too so I'm still a babe in the woods at figuring out when to draft for 3 additional positions of need. My next pick is #28 so we'll see who's left.

Oh god it's not snake?

I'd quit that league, gently caress that. You're last in every round of the draft? Who came up with that idiotic idea. Especially for dynasty, you're stuck with your bottom-tier picks forever.


e. Wait are you the guy from a couple pages back who traded away his #1 for more picks? If so then ignore the above but also don't draft gurley

Leperflesh
May 17, 2007

Pancakes by Mail posted:

Dude sorry I keep forcing edits with my terrible strategy of writing a post, thinking about it more and then adding incredibly relevant info.
Yeah I'm the guy who traded 1.1 for 1.14, 3.14 and 5.14.
God I hope no one has ever drafted with a non-snake, sounds completely horrible (as you pointed out).

No Gurley? I did get majorly burned with him last year in a redraft league. I'm trying not to lean too heavily on rankings but for dynasty RB, here's for example FantasyPros top 15:
1 Ezekiel Elliott DAL
2 David Johnson ARI
3 Le'Veon Bell PIT
4 Melvin Gordon LAC
5 Devonta Freeman ATL
6 Todd Gurley LAR 8
7 Leonard Fournette JAC
8 Jordan Howard CHI
9 Christian McCaffrey CAR
10 Joe Mixon CIN
11 Jay Ajayi MIA
12 LeSean McCoy BUF
13 Dalvin Cook MIN
14 Lamar Miller HOU
15 Carlos Hyde SF

So just using this as a rough framework, I'm genuinely feeling not great about many of these picks. Lamar Miller of course is the perennial "no really, for sure this time". McCaffrey and Fournette are rookies and Fournette, for example, will surely get a lot of touches but Bortles isn't exactly going to be stretching the field for him, plus he's yet to take an NFL snap and who knows how well he transitions? RB is what I end up hating my roster of every year, though, so I accept that I'm not a great evaluator of them in general.

Other people are telling you I'm totally wrong but I'll go ahead and explain my thinking.

Basically, for dynasty, you definitely want to target young promising players, right? Sure. If you can draft someone with enormous talent who is going to dominate in his position for the next decade, that's awesome.

But, I think your #1 pick also has to be guaranteed. You are never going to get another #1 pick again in dynasty; future rounds, most of the talent will be kept. You'll get shots at rookies of course, and maybe the occasional player whose opportunity radically changes due to an offseason trade. Maybe a guy like Josh Brown somehow gets reinstated and cleans up and is there for the first round. But, assume that poo poo isn't going to happen; I feel your first pick off the board has to be someone who will anchor your dynasty team. Even, and this is where I differ with other guys, if the guy you pick isn't super young.

That's why I'd far rather have a veteran player on an excellent team whose opportunity and talent are unquestioned. And I don't think Amari Cooper's opportunity is guaranteed. Specifically, he's had two running 1000+ yard seasons, and will very likely get more; but he's getting only 5 or 6 TDs per season, and I don't believe that is slated to change. My comment about Crabtree wasn't to suggest Crabs is a better player (he isn't) or is going to steal more normal targets (he isn't); but the Raiders have shown they rely on Crabtree for red zone TD play. His last two seasons were 900 and 1000 yards, respectively... and 9 and 8 TDs, respectively. I don't see enough changes in Raiders lineup to expect that to change. Cooper is going to have a long and good career barring injury, but I put him as a solid second round pick - even in Dynasty - because he hasn't got the high TD production opportunity. I want him on my team and if I don't see a solid veteran high-opportunity player available, I take him, yeah.

But. Jordy Nelson's last three played seasons (2013, 2014, 2016) were 1300, 1500, and 1250 yard seasons, with 8, 13, and 14 TDs. Yes, he's 32, so probably not much more than 5 or 6 seasons left, and expecting him to decline after another two or three years is reasonable. But right now, he's an absolute winning anchor with guaranteed opportunity and an unquestionable talent at QB. After last year I don't believe there are big injury concerns with him. If I want to win my league any time in the next two or three years, I love Nelson.

So, despite it being dynasty... yeah, I take Nelson over Cooper for my first round pick. Especially given that you chose to move back in the first round in order to get more early-round picks: I'd be planning to use those extra picks to grab more of the rookies and young talents that will still be on the board in the third and fifth rounds, and focus my first and second round picks on absolute safe bets.

As for Gurley: I just don't trust him or his opportunity. It remains to be seen whether the Rams will be not a garbage fire again, and Gurley is unproven. His play got significantly worse last year compared to his rookie year; maybe he's due to turn that around, but... I'd rather take a player who has turned things around, and is unquestionably on an upswing with tremendous opportunity. Like Jay Ajayi.

I know a bunch of other people don't agree, and if you go with their advice I'm not mad or anything, but I think you have to be really careful about e.g. Fantasypro's ratings when you've taken a particular strategy into the draft, and add in that it's dynasty.

By the way, I don't think you've mentioned what your keeper rules will be, but they matter a lot. Will it be much more expensive in some respect to keep a 1st round pick vs. later round picks? Do you have player salaries that escalate or anything like that?

Leperflesh fucked around with this message at 20:11 on Jul 1, 2017

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Leperflesh
May 17, 2007

RVProfootballer posted:

Would you really be that surprised if he busts out for 100-1400-9 or something? He can't put up a breakout year like ARob, Hopkins, or Evans have recently? It's exactly when you can keep them forever that you should lock up guys that are almost top tier already but still have tons of room to grow.

Would I be surprised? No, not really, I think he definitely has a chance to do that. But I think his chance is more like 50/50, and more importantly, I think there's a solid chance he remains at his current level of TD production and yardage for a long time. I look at a guy like Landry; his third year was basically identical to his second, 1150 yards and 4 TDs, and I don't think the Raiders are gonna be so stupid as to drag their feet re-signing him if he has a third year like Landry's. I think that's the expectation and I'd rate Cooper and Landry as roughly equivalent draft picks in Dynasty. Maybe Coop gets a slight edge just because the Raiders are more likely playoff contenders than the Dolphins and that will help late in the season.

I love Amari Cooper in dynasty, I just don't love him as your only first round pick when you're waiting another 14 spots for your second pick.

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