Forever_Peace posted:

hey anybody ever hear of this Christine Michael guy who just got cut from the Packers? Seems pretty athletic could be a good sleeper pickup

Sataere posted:

Ryan is a prime candidate to get overdrafted. I think losing Shanahan is going to cut down the offensive numbers in Atlanta across the board.

Mariota is my preferred prospect of the two, because he can just straight up dominate at times. I feel like his highs are higher than Winston's and his lows are higher too. He's an interesting combination of safer and more explosive.

EDIT: I decided to look and see if my feeling was right. So even though Winston beats out Mariota in yards, Mariota gained 7.6 yards per attempt, putting him in the top ten for quarterbacks. Winston averaged 7.2 YPA.

Moreover, despite throwing the ball 25% more times, Mariota had more big plays. 50 plays to 43 plays of 20+ yard passes and 7 plays compared to 4 plays of 40+ yard passes. That's an 11% chance to have a play of 20 yards or more, compared to 7.5%.

I haven't even looked over his rushing totals.

This just made me mad that I traded Mariota two years ago in my dynasty league for the corpse of Marshawn Lynch.

Sataere posted:

I think he will be better this year, but not significantly better. I think in two to three years, he could realistically see top tier status.

I also think year two of Derrick Henry and Tajae Sharpe will help and I don't think we can assume rookie receivers just won't contribute right away anymore. The last few years have shown that the learning curve for these guys is significantly less steep than it was even five years ago.

Sataere posted:

I think the nice thing about him is he was pretty consistent for most of last year. He is definitely one of the guys I am targeting in the middle rounds. I think the nice thing about the way Tennessee is built is they are making it easy for him to be successful.

Spoeank posted:

Ultimate Josh Gordon buy low today imo


dont do this

Butter Hole posted:

Perhaps a dumb question: is there a beer sheets-equivalent for IDP? My dynasty league is introducing defensive players and the draft is this weekend. I am woefully unprepared. Anyone have some recommended resources?

RVProfootballer posted:

In redraft, I'm going Ross. But dynasty/long term, I just like Williams' profile, especially when comparing each rookie to Keenan and Green. Ross will never be the WR1 while Green is in town, and though I think it's unlikely, Williams could unseat Keenan for lead target, or at least be a very close WR1b to Keenan's WR1a.

Spoeank posted:

FFS I'm working on a breakout/bounceback piece and most of my guys are on Evan Silva's list... Robert Woods, Eric Ebron, Jameis, John Brown

Now I'm looking like I'm just copying Silva.

Cervixalot posted:

Didn't you hear? He is sober and turning heads at OTAS. https://twitter.com/rotoworld_fb/status/869738502937772032

Sataere posted:

Do you really have Melvin Gordon as your 4th RB? Wasn't he very touchdown dependent last season, with a low YPC?

Spoeank posted:

Spoeank posted:

You'll never guess who Cecil Lammey spent multiple minutes discussing on The Audible.


Cody.


Mother.


Fuckin.


Latimer.

Inspector_666 posted:

Yeah, you have to have inflation of some type or else it can get really, really imbalanced, really fast.

It also means you'll have a really hard time ever expanding the league/finding somebody to take over a team in case somebody drops out because all of the good players are already locked up forever.

89 posted:

Also, Melvin Gordon seriously has ZERO competition behind him to take his snaps. Rivers will get him back into those 5 yard redzone situations.

Todd Gurley is a tricky one. Surely he'll bounce back this year under a new scheme.

Buuuut, don't think I'm gonna fall on that grenade to find out.

Spoeank posted:

Todd Gurley haa been piss bad longer than he was good.

Papes posted:

Todd Gurley is bad because the rams are bad. This is the life of non pass catching backs who aren't first ballot HoF's. Don't draft in redraft leagues but maybe look into buying in dynasty.

Spoeank posted:

https://twitter.com/AdamSchefter/status/880804947813703681

Dgb a bad football man whoda it

Drunk Nerds posted:

Interesting. I feel the exact opposite. There are tons of deep rookies and un-sexy picks this year to round out a solid receiver core. Gore, Mixon, Crowell (but not in the 3rd, agreed), Perkins, Ingram, Powell, Gillislee are all guys I'd be proud to have as my RB1 if I didn't pick an RB in the first 3 rounds.

Like Papes said, I'm finding my best mocks are where I don't end up drafting an RB until round 4 (although I still follow my strict "best player available" rule for the first three rounds)

Sataere posted:

Counterpoint, Cooper and Luck could be top five at their positions for years.

Leperflesh posted:

Yeah that stuff all makes sense, but based on playing fantasy in usually two to four leagues for five years, my experience has been "whoever drafted or grabbed off waivers the killer RB that didn't get injured" is the one who usually wins the championship. The best way to convince me otherwise would be to aggregate data for a few thousand players, dividing between players who drafted zero-RB and those that didn't, and see who wins the most championships. My money is on either "zero RB is worse" or "there's no significant difference."

e. you could simulate this, but note that if your simulation is "one player does zero RB while the rest do ADP" that's not a valid test; you have to have the zero-RB player facing a real-world-correct set of opposing players, who would presumably react to the zero-RB player's strategy during the draft, and some of whom would presumably also be doing zero-RB.

Sataere posted:

The issue I have with the roto article is that it is failing to take into account the trend that Dallas has started. As teams have geared towards the passing game, defenses are becoming smaller and faster, to become better equipped for that.

Matt Zerella posted:

Congrats to anyone who scoops up DJ outside of the top 3 because of a sprain.

Forever_Peace posted:

Um you forgot Austin Hooper. Rude.

Spoeank posted:

*whispers*

The Packers have never had a TE1 with Jordy Nelson playing a full season

Abugadu posted:

He'll get yards, probably lots of them, the concern is that the Packers get throw-happy near the end zone, and when they do run it, half the time they pound it in with the fullback. But the dude had a ridiculous YPC given how other RBs did in that system, and he looks raring to go, with his only competition being a rookie, Jamaal Williams out of BYU.

Papes posted:

The packers also literally let their top two running backs from last year walk. They weren't going to open training camp with 1 running back on the roster.

Spoeank posted:

Too rich for my blood

Ty1990 posted:

Don't draft Jets

pubic works project posted:

Alshon over Keenan for me due to being burned TWICE by Keenan and his loving lacerated organs/ACLs.

My question:

I'm running two leagues for members at the private club I work at. Both are 14 team leagues and I believe we're going to auction draft for both. How do I make the waiver order random for the first week and then "move to last after claim"?