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MacheteZombie posted:My next question is a dynasty trade: Feels weird to say, but I definitely wouldn't want to be team 1 here. Adams has earned a ton of value this year, as has Hyde. Montgomery is meh, Robinson is still a good hold but would you really bank on him being a significant upgrade on Adams with Rodgers back, with what Adams has done this year? I don't know that I give up Adams for Robinson straight up.
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Nov 29, 2017 18:43
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Inspector_666 posted:Alvin Kamara is a loving robot made to just demolish everything week in and week out and I love him. In my main league, he went undrafted, and I was sooo close to grabbing him week 4. Instead, I would up with Jermaine Kearse or some garbage man that I dropped after a week or two, and my multi-year nemesis has ridden him from bottom or 2nd from bottom of the league to a matchup vs me this week for 3rd place. Easily my single biggest regret this fantasy year 
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Dec 4, 2017 07:24
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Santheb posted:No I don’t think those are the same two systems. If it had been a normal system where 80% of the league didn’t make the playoffs I would probably be facing the team of a guy who gave a poo poo throughout the year instead of a team that knew 4 wins would get him there. Why not go all the way and just give the championship to the team with the best record after 16 weeks? And why are you annoyed that you get to face the 7th or 8th best team instead of the 3rd or 4th? It'll suck to lose either way, might as well play the worst team you can.
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Dec 5, 2017 21:30
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Spoeank posted:"Remember Jordan Reeds three massive games?" I don't think I've ever seen anyone focus on those 3 games, fwiw. I had no idea he had three consecutive big games in 2015 or that anyone thinks that's the basis for people thinking he's a good TE, just that he was consistently a good TE all year and stayed healthy. Doesn't negate your main point at all, but I was also kinda surprised you focused on some three game period from 2015.
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Dec 6, 2017 18:24
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Ben Nevis posted:Davis is like the 6th RB1 on the Seahawks this year. I bet he's the good one they've held in reserve until the end. It doesn't matter if he's good or not, if he's the last guy in Seattle that's healthy, he's almost certainly worth picking up if you're at all hurting at RB
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Dec 7, 2017 00:39
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what the gently caress... dude's name is "Pee-rhine", not "Pear-een"??
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Dec 10, 2017 22:21
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Surprising lack of "goddammit Alex Smith" in here
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Dec 11, 2017 16:48
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Suave Fedora posted:We all know what he is by now. The Chiefs won so that at least is a step in a better direction. I'd be less annoyed, except he was a consensus top 3 QB this week (per borischen and fantasy pros) given last week's performance and the lowly Raiders, aaannnd because I benched Rivers for him for those reasons
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Dec 11, 2017 18:47
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IDP leagues ftw: Graham scored a point, apparently made a solo tackle, probably on one of the interventions
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Dec 11, 2017 19:30
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RCarr posted:I'd go Ben. Rodgers hasn't played in how many weeks? Same
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Dec 12, 2017 18:01
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Sataere posted:I didn't mention him this week, because I think he will have no impact. If he's on the wire, let someone else have him. I'm honestly baffled by all the Mike Davis love. I just don't get it. Eh, he beat Barber marginally, and all your other waiver targets last week were ~70% owned, which probably meant a good chance of not being available in competitive leagues. There's no love for Mike Davis, there's just people who need a JAG that is a safe bet for volume and no other healthy RBs to
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Dec 13, 2017 01:20
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Spoeank posted:The Seahawks have the lowest-scoring aggregate RB score on the year, he's their fifth-best RB and they were going up against a top-ten fantasy rush defense. If you want us to repeat the same recommendations as everywhere else when they're lovely recommendations, then I don't know what to tell you. To be constructive, and maybe this was mentioned earlier in the thread, it's just always weird to me when I see waiver or sleeper lists and see guys conspicuously missing. I don't know if there's an industry standard waiver wire list each week that you could sort of play off, and have a short couple sentences before your recommendations with like, "Despite appearing as a popular sleeper, Mike Davis is not great, the offensive line is a joke, the offense is all passing and they are in a terrible matchup. Avoid!" Maybe even a separate "avoid" article each week if there are enough common recommendations that you disagree with, maybe one for all positions rather than split into 4 articles? Maybe that's too much work or too derivative or something, I'm not sure. But it's more useful than just not seeing a guy mentioned that half the other lists have; did you just forget about him or do you actually not like him for some credible reason?
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Dec 13, 2017 01:55
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Mikey Purp posted:Having a hard time deciding on Martavis over Keenan Allen or Dion Lewis this week. Martavis could blow up, but "go home with the one who brought you" and everything. Keenan Allen is unsittable, have to start him.
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Dec 19, 2017 20:56
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Alfalfa posted:D. Adams officially out. Ravens in 1 and Vikings in 2, imo
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Dec 21, 2017 19:50
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Spermy Smurf posted:Who is perriman? I can't even name the team. 2014 was the bonkers year. Perriman drafted in mid/late 1st by Ravens in 2015, super fast but can't catch the ball, was widely touted as a probable bust that a team would reach for because of his speed, then had multiple leg injuries. No one really hyped him, but there were about a million targets up for grabs in Baltimore and even a supremely average receiver could've been usable there, Perriman just wasn't even that. No one thought Boyd or Ross would do much. After his rookie year, no one has any expectation for Treadwell. Doctson is coming along nicely, he's just following a normal receiver's development, not a ridiculous one like the top 2014 guys. Coleman was going to be the man in Cleveland, but somehow Josh Gordon has come back, so who knows. Also, can't believe you forgot Kevin White 
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Jan 5, 2018 04:08
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Zauper posted:This. I'd even consider buying, depending on the cost and league settings. In a superflex if he's discounted enough due to the uncertainly for sure. Especially at the height of rookie fever coming up in the next couple months, I suspect in many superflex leagues, you'll be able to snag Luck for a single early/mid 1st. That's a buy for me all day.
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Jan 31, 2018 17:58
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Realistically, how many studs are going to be in situations like that? One or two cheap studs a year is fine imo, and isn't nearly enough to unbalance the league in any serious way. If anything, that might keep things a little more even, as teams that go stud heavy are forced to shed a few every so often, and lovely teams with good draft picks get an extra boost in value by getting to add them at low salary.
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Feb 1, 2018 23:09
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Leperflesh posted:Also, one top ten player helps you win this year. but what about the future of your team? the opportunity cost is being unable to get the breakout players that will pay dividends for the next decade of play. The hit rate of "guys you picked up off the wire that are valuable for a decade" is close to 0, though. Even the hit rate for guys that are valuable in the year you picked them up is fairly low, going by those waiver wire analyses rotoviz does every so often (probability of a hot waiver wire pick up being an RB2 or better for more than a game is like 25% or something?). Most of your FAAB spend is going to be on short term, not very useful guys. Taking a guaranteed season long stud instead of blowing your budget on 1-2 week dart throws is an easy decision, no? You also have to not only pick up the guys that manage to have sustained value, but also have to beat out your leaguemates for them. You also can get perfectly fine dynasty stashes for free/$0 bids during the season, guys like Funchess or Agholor 1-2 years ago. That's ignoring the other salary-related issues, like if signing a guaranteed stud for a boatload means you have no cap room to make valuable long term oriented trades in season or something, of course.
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Feb 3, 2018 19:27
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Leperflesh posted:snip Cool to see a list, thanks for taking the time to do it. Your league does seem shallower compared to what I'm used to, with a lot of those guys even hitting the wire or being on it for so long (Marquise Goodwin took until December to get grabbed?), so that could definitely be where our ideas are differing. I just looked back at one league to see if I could find any bargains in 2016 like your league seemed to find in Thielen this year, and among bids like 20% for Charcandrick West in November 2016 and Jeremy Kerley for 5% in September 2016, the best I could find was Dak Prescott for 20% (in a 1 QB league) right after Romo went down. Otherwise, it was all 0-1% bids on (good) IDPs, handcuffs, etc. That's a 12 teamer with 40 man rosters, with 9 offensive and 6 defensive starters. Looking briefly at a couple other leagues that are roughly comparable in terms of depth to that one, common themes were spending a decent 5-25% bid at different points in the season on Taylor Gabriel, Knile Davis, Rob Kelley, Damien Williams, Cameron Meredith, Dennis Pitta, Tyreek Hill, Tim Hightower, Travis Benjamin, Kenny Britt (guaranteed WR3 or better hah), Tyrell Williams, Adam Humphries, and boatloads on previously highly touted rookies that ever got dropped at some point (>20% on guys like Treadwell, Dixon, etc). For a somewhat shallower contract league with a lot more roster turnover, I'd definitely be more agreeing with you.
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Feb 3, 2018 21:45
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Epi Lepi posted:Evans had 4 games of Ryan Fitzpatrick and another 4 where Winston was playing through an injury to his throwing shoulder. And Evans still finished the season with over 1,000 yards. Big Mike is gonna bounce back. Yeah, I'm confused how quickly people do a 180 on players. Evans was the popular/consensus #2 overall in dynasty beginning of last year and didn't have a bad year (WR#17ish in PPR?). Fair enough if salary concerns are big enough to consider dumping below value or you have a bad taste from drafting him with your first pick in redraft, but dude joined the AJ Green and Randy Moss club, and I am extremely comfortable predicting he outperforms 70-1000-5 next year. He's an obvious buy low target this off season. Chris Thompson is a cool dude, but Evans at 20% salary cap for Thompson at negligible salary is not a big win regardless of roster imo. It might be worth doing in your situation, but even then I'm kinda skeptical. Moving from Cousins to Smith isn't a positive for that offense or necessarily Thompson himself. Given that you could likely get a boatload more for Brown than Evans, I'd personally try to move him instead. Evans + elite/close to elite RB1 >> Brown + Thompson, even if the former comes with less salary savings. sourdough fucked around with this message at 16:51 on Feb 10, 2018 |
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Feb 10, 2018 16:40
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Alfalfa posted:Can you not find someone with a top draft pick who needs a WR to move him for? No salary considerations there? I like Doctson but that's theft
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Feb 10, 2018 19:30
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RCarr posted:I agree. This move would lower my team’s salary by $29. I should see if he would give me a 1st round pick instead of a 2nd. Yeah, that'd be a nice return in value (I still like Parker and am hopeful about Gordon) and salary relief.
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Feb 12, 2018 02:53
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Anyone able to chime in on Trubisky this year? I watched none of his play. I'm thinking of targeting him in some dynasty 2 QB leagues on the basis that he'll be fairly cheap and still have lots of slack to develop and prove himself given his draft pick, but not sure where to project him in terms of production. Is low QB2/high end QB3 (say, QB20-25ish) too optimistic?
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Mar 1, 2018 23:53
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Epi Lepi posted:Receivers I’d take over Evans: Julio Jones, AB84, Hopkins, maybe AJ Green, Jordy Nelson and OBJ. Who else do you take? There’s probably enough RBs that are worth a first this year that Evans is probably a second round pick but I don’t see him lasting to the third in most leagues. I am probably forgetting some guys since we’re so far out from the season but I don’t know which other receivers are that good and consistent. Keenan Allen when he doesn’t have a freak injury? Were there any oustanding rookies last year that I’m forgetting? Definitely Keenan before Evans, and also Michael Thomas, maaaybe Davante Adams (but I probably wouldn't), and some people will probably say Tyreek Hill (but I wouldn't), and then yeah I think that's it. Is anyone taking guys like Baldwin, Thielen, Diggs, Hilton, Landry, Gordon, Dez, etc, ahead of him?
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Mar 4, 2018 16:53
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Alfalfa posted:Jordy isn’t even the WR1 on his own team Rodgers or no Rodgers. Dynasty, I agree, but redraft I'm still happy to take Jordy pretty early. I'm not convinced Adams stays top of the depth chart, Rodgers will be back, and Jordy is one year removed from a 100-1250-14 season immediately following an ACL tear. Edit: Though I don't remember any impressions from actually watching Jordy last year, so maybe I'm missing an obvious on field decline?
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Mar 7, 2018 17:18
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Matt Zerella posted:Nuk should be he first WR off the board in any kind of PPR. I don't think I can put any receiver above Brown in redraft still. coronaball posted:Is OBJ still a top 10 pick coming off injury and paired with a rapidly declining QB? Beckham still definitely top 10, for those reasons I think he's definitely behind Brown, Hopkins, and...that's it? Pretty sure that's it for me, anyway. I'm happy with Henry as a fringe RB1. I'd be really uncomfortable with him as my top RB, but really happy with him as my RB2. Edit: Just realized you meant top 10 picks and top 12 picks, right? I initially read that as top 10 WR for Beckham and top 12 RB for Henry. Beckham should sneak into the top 10 overall in many drafts I think, but seeing 7+ RBs, Brown, Hopkins, and a mystery guy ahead of him I'm sure will also happen fairly often. Henry is definitely not top 12 pick, but late 2nd or early 3rd round seems ok for a risky but high upside RB like him, no? Actually, though, looking at RBs, maybe fringe RB1 is too optimistic. Gurley, Zeke, Bell, DJ, Kamara, Fournette, Hunt, Cook, Gordon, Freeman, Howard, McCoy probably, Barkley almost certainly, Hyde and Ingram and Ajayi arguably, pending off season moves/lack of moves, McCaffrey in PPR. I guess RB12-16ish is probably about right. sourdough fucked around with this message at 21:14 on Mar 9, 2018 |
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Mar 9, 2018 20:08
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So, Jarvis Landry to the Browns happened. Also, Mike Evans got a big extension, should put to rest any long term dynasty-ish worries about him falling out of favor with the team or whatever.
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Mar 9, 2018 23:37
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Leperflesh posted:my dynasty team is in tatters Who you got? I think there's been a few unambiguously bad value moves, mostly Browns related (Tyrod is lateral or even slight improvement, but Hyde, Landry, Coleman, and Gordon all get downgraded), Moncrief, Jordy, maybe Crabtree, probably Dion Lewis and Derrick Henry hurting each other's stocks. Most other moves seem at worst lateral on value (Watkins, Allen Robinson), or decent to great ones (McKinnon, Bears offense, Vikings offense, Graham, Brate, Keenum and Bradford for their respective offenses as starters or vets behind early rookie QBs >>> Siemian and Stanton or whoever).
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Mar 17, 2018 01:13
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Zauper posted:Powell, Crabtree, ebron, maclin, Olsen if he goes into broadcasting. Powell is fair, though he's firmly in the "meh" tier of mediocre/old RBs whose value couldn't move either way too much (JStew, Crowell, Martin). Ebron wasn't getting it done in Detroit, but seems likely to get another chance, so I'm fine with him. I basically see it as this means his range of possible upsides is now above the 50-600-4 he had in Detroit, and if he doesn't achieve that, it isn't a big loss since it isn't like he was a stud before. Maclin is an FA, was always getting cut, and like Ebron, it's not much of a loss that he isn't on the Ravens any more, even if he doesn't bounce back. Olsen for sure if he retires, but I thought I read it wasn't expected he'd retire now, just go into broadcasting sometime down the road? For Gordon, it isn't that he directly loses slot targets to Landry, it's that Landry should command a bigger share of targets than their putrid receiving corps did last year. Though looking again at who the Browns actually had last year, I think you're right that there's plenty of targets to go around between Gordon, Landry, Duke, and TEs.
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Mar 17, 2018 02:52
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coronaball posted:I would insta-quit if that wasnt reversed. Yeah, that's an easy and good one to reverse, guy has legit explanation of a mistake. If he's fine owning his mistake, though, I'd be fine with that too.
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Mar 20, 2018 01:02
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Beer4TheBeerGod posted:Someone really hates that a crunch numbers in a Space Barbie game. Yeah, it's probably the best av I've ever seen, no context necessary
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Apr 25, 2018 17:55
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