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With respect to Michael Thomas, I'm not even worried about Brees regressing. I'm worried about Thomas drawing top coverage and whether he can be the guy. Even if he can, "the guy" in that offense has his upside capped at about what we saw from him last year.
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Jun 7, 2017 16:05
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Sataere posted:Maybe I am misremembering, but didn't ground control show Gurley getting hit way earlier than everyone else? Even if so, has the Rams' o-line improved at all?
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Jun 7, 2017 16:46
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I was more thinking that there's little reason to expect improvement from Gurley, whereas Gordon has some reasons to expect efficiency improvements.
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Jun 7, 2017 23:58
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Forever_Peace posted:It's OK, I routinely get my rear end kicked in the other 2 goon dynasty leagues. Turns out I'm better at drafting and working the WW than I am at trading, but I can't help myself. Please be Josh and not Melvin 
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Jun 8, 2017 14:32
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Fork of Unknown Origins posted:Only had one guy I wanted to cut in dynasty but had enough picks in the first three rounds (1.2, 2.1, 3.1, 3.2, 3.7) that I would have to cut two. Someone put Willie Snead on the block because they don't understand what rebuilding actually is and I offered 3.7/3.2, thinking he'd laugh the offer off. He countered 3.1/3.2. I would've snap accepted but I was a little busy at work so I waited 5 minutes and he threw in 5.1. I told him I didn't want to stay awake past the third round and offered to swap my 2.1 for 1.12 instead (we are probably both targeting RBs there. To my disbelief he accepted. So I gave 2.1, 3.1 and 3.2 to get Willie Snead and 1.12. All damned day. Haha nice
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Jun 8, 2017 15:20
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Sataere posted:I didn't say I could justify the thought. But I'm not talking a guy with my first four picks. I think he's a guy who can slip to round six or seven and maybe be a high end WR2 by seasons end. His pace over 13 games would've put him at 100-1100-3 in 16. That's with Thielen soaking up 70-950-5. I'd bet on Diggs improving more than I'd bet on Thielen repeating those numbers. Vikings o-line also was injured, not bad for no reason. Starting left tackle, right guard, and top two right tackles went down early in the year. There's little reason to expect the line to be as bad next year, and little reason to think Diggs can't be a solid WR2. You don't need to rely on your gut or listen to Teemu 
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Jun 9, 2017 00:02
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Yeah, only question is how long Murray takes to get fully healthy this off season, and whether he has any setbacks.
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Jun 9, 2017 02:51
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Leperflesh posted:is gronk any better? People draft him in the first round No, I think if you looked at any tight end, they'd have that kind of weekly variance. To be fair, prime Gronk probably does look better, as would prime Graham. Ertz during his half seasons where he's great. But probably no one else. Benne posted:Let's play a quick trivia game that means nothing but could mean a lot depending on where you plan on drafting a TE: Drafting bad TEs expecting them to repeat career years is a dangerous game.
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Jun 9, 2017 14:33
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Yep, sure would hate to have a TE1 that put up >100 yards 5 out of the last 6 weeks of the fantasy year
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Jun 9, 2017 18:12
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Teemu Pokemon posted:I'm not going to post all the stuff I literally just posted two pages ago but TE is going to be dogshit again and if y'all are willing to sacrifice your 3rd rounder to rise above it for a guy who's full PPR ceiling is 250 points, more power to you I said nothing about ADP or where I'd draft him this year. But Kelce owned last year and the fact that he may or may not own this year doesn't change that.
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Jun 9, 2017 18:20
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Beer4TheBeerGod posted:Saying they have a high floor in a game notorious for injuries? Not really the same. Except for guys that are more likely to be injured than others, I take all projections as "assuming they play a mostly full season free of injury." When any random guy can tear an ACL in the pre-season, there's no point in making any kind of prediction without that caveat.
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Jun 9, 2017 19:05
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I'm in three 2 TE dynasty leagues, it is not that crazy. The one where I have Kelce and Hunter Henry is probably my favorite 
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Jun 11, 2017 03:03
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Ben Nevis posted:Would you prefer CMike or Langford? CMike unironically lol
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Jun 13, 2017 22:51
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Zombie Tsunami posted:goodnight sweet prince Shortest CMike hype train ever??
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Jun 16, 2017 03:11
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Spoeank posted:Lookit this guy. Haha too late, you got owned
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Jun 17, 2017 01:39
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Dynasty, duh
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Jun 18, 2017 00:14
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Leperflesh posted:The goon money dynasty league "I paid what for who?" has two open teams. I'm planning to recruit at the end of the summer, but pm me if you're interested. I pmed ya. Edit: nm, just found it and can't pay for another league right now, haha sourdough fucked around with this message at 17:56 on Jun 18, 2017 |
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Jun 18, 2017 17:53
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Pancakes by Mail posted:Might be a stupid question but does anyone know of a ranking list of all positions together INCLUDING IDP? I can find IDP rankings and offense rankings, but no clue how they compare, so no idea if say, Luke Keuchly is worth taking over Lesean McCoy, etc. IDP scoring settings are way too variable across leagues for any combined offensive and defensive rankings to be useful. Best you can do is some VORP type idea by looking at how scoring drops off across the tiers of DL, LB, and DB compared to RB and WR. Those settings are good for tackle machine over pass rushers, though. But almost as important as scoring is how many starters. If you only start 1 at each defensive position, you should never keep one. If you're doing like 3 or 4 each, high end LBs might be legit first few round picks, and great keeper options for late round picks. sourdough fucked around with this message at 00:27 on Jun 24, 2017 |
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Jun 24, 2017 00:24
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Pancakes by Mail posted:Really good point about positional scarcity re: IDP vs offense players. I'm trying to cobble a tier list together. The more keepers there are, the better that looks for him. If full redraft, you destroyed him. If like 6 keepers, he won.
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Jun 25, 2017 23:41
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Spoeank posted:Melvin Gordon: Wrong. Edit: Melvin Gordon will be better at running the ball, even if his touchdown rate goes down, and I will die on this hill. Top... 6 RB if he stays healthy 14+ games. sourdough fucked around with this message at 04:58 on Jun 29, 2017 |
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Jun 29, 2017 04:56
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NOT GOOD 
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Ben Nevis posted:He caught 43 passes last year. Especially when Lance Dunbar is the competition. I'm cautiously optimistic about Dunbar as a free add in deep dynasty leagues, but let's not get ahead of ourselves before seeing him on the field again.
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Jun 29, 2017 19:25
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smdh it's Marqise, obviously
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Jul 1, 2017 00:24
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Leperflesh posted:Yes. Antonio Brown is only (just turning) 29, and Amari Cooper is splitting fantasy points with Crabtree, despite being nominally the #1 WR on the team. Jordy over Cooper in dynasty is madness and really bad advice. Cooper vs Brown vs Julio is about as even as it gets, and comes down to personal preference. When in doubt, check fantasy pros consensus to see if you're in the right ballpark. Cooper is easily a 1st round start up pick: definitely behind Beckham and Evans, and probably behind DJ, Zeke, and Bell. I'd personally take him over Bell, though, and before Brown and Julio. He literally just turned 23 and has topped 1k yards both seasons. Worrying about Crabtree? Come on now.
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Jul 1, 2017 01:51
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Amari. Cooper. Duh. Look, it isn't very close here. You're not choosing between youth and production, you're choosing youth + production. Coop's on an AJ Green-like career trajectory and is 23. No you shouldn't draft any of those RBs over him. sourdough fucked around with this message at 02:05 on Jul 1, 2017 |
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Jul 1, 2017 02:03
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Yeah, I feel the same as you, Leperflesh, obviously no hard feelings or anything, and everyone should play the game how they think is best. And also the caveat that I'm talking like it's pure dynasty, when it isn't. I just think picking someone like Jordy locks you 100% into a draft strategy the rest of the way, or you've wasted your pick. If someone like Mike Williams is sitting there at pick 100 or 120 or whatever, do you take him or like, I dunno, Mike Wallace? Picking Jordy means you're going all in to win this year and next, and that's it. No sitting on rookies as they develop. You take dudes like Demarco Murray, Crabtree, Sanders, Brady, you win it this year, then your team falls apart. Someone like Cooper (or Beckham or Evans or Hopkins or a handful of other guys) are fantastic in that they give you production now, today, right now, while also being so young that they work for any kind of team. He finished as like WR#14 or 15, depending on PPR and stuff, yeah? Take Cooper at 14 and then find guys like John Ross or Doctson or Moncrief or whoever are sitting there on the board, way past their ADPs? Take em, you can afford to wait a year or two for them to develop. Or you find all those old dudes that have a tiny bit of gas in the tank just keep falling? Cool, draft them and win it all with at least high end WR2 production from Cooper, while also having a solid stud to build around when all your old dudes die in 2018 or 2019. I absolutely do think lots of people fetishize youth too much, knocking guys like Hilton or Jeffery for being, gasp, older than 25. But Cooper, in particular, has not hit his ceiling. Would you really be that surprised if he busts out for 100-1400-9 or something? He can't put up a breakout year like ARob, Hopkins, or Evans have recently? It's exactly when you can keep them forever that you should lock up guys that are almost top tier already but still have tons of room to grow.
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Jul 1, 2017 20:36
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Well, might just need to agree to disagree. I think there's very little chance Cooper has peaked, or that he and Landry are similar in more than a very superficial way (season end counting stats). I couldn't accept quickly enough if you offered me Cooper for Landry.
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Jul 1, 2017 21:23
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In a 16 team start up going right now, Jordy went 26. He went 71 in a ridiculous 2 QB start up that saw like 35 QBs go before that (so adjust accordingly, and maybe discount this one entirely, hah). In another 2 QB that was more reasonable, he went 26, after 5 QBs. Can't imagine taking him over AJ Green either. So yeah, little bit that I think people are undervaluing Cooper and overvaluing ol Jordy. I love Jordy for competitors, bought him for a 2018 1st round rookie pick in a league I just won, for example. He's just not close to a mid 1st start up pick for me.
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Jul 1, 2017 22:26
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Spoeank posted:I just watched all his targets in the red zone, Cooper has a red zone problem. He keeps getting bodied up in the end zone and gets manhandled or pushed out of bounds This list of plays seems pretty unremarkable. Edit: In the sense that there's one bad drop, a few times of not getting his toes down that virtually every receiver should have (it's the end zone, of course they're not going to get their toes down every time, that's the defensive game plan), and then some decent plays that didn't go for touchdowns. sourdough fucked around with this message at 21:54 on Jul 2, 2017 |
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Jul 2, 2017 21:40
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Whole argument against him just seems weird. He's 23. He saw more red zone targets in 2016 (17) than either Hilton or Doug Baldwin (both 16), and just a couple fewer than Evans (19) or Michael Thomas (18) or Antonio Brown (18). His catch rate on them was markedly worse than most of those guys, but from what spoeank showed, didn't seem too concerning. He had drop issues in his rookie year that he cleaned up a ton in 2016. Just seems like a weird narrative that his upside is capped due to his red zone usage or that he has already peaked. His peers historically had not peaked after this kind of production the first two years, and no one would say Baldwin or Evans couldn't be true WR1s due to too few red zone targets. Edit: Hmm, numbers might be off, I got them here: http://nflsavant.com/targets.php Or maybe that includes postseason? sourdough fucked around with this message at 23:49 on Jul 2, 2017 |
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Jul 2, 2017 23:44
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Leperflesh posted:I don't think it includes postseason. But, look who is at #3. Yeah, I'm not trying to minimize Crabtree or how great a value he is. Hell, looks who's #1 by a mile
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Jul 3, 2017 03:08
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MrSargent posted:So I have been doing a couple yahoo mocks just to get a better idea of where people are going and noticed some interesting things. Especially in PPR, that's awesome for Crowder. And no way should Enunwa be undrafted, but he is a pretty big question mark. We really have no idea who QB will be, how the rookies will show, or whether Enunwa is actually any good. I'd probably be comfortable with him in the late WR30s maybe, bakes in his risk and upside decently at that price.
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Jul 6, 2017 22:12
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Lol niiice
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Jul 6, 2017 22:20
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Spoeank posted:Here's fantasypros ADP Looks pretty screwy. McCaffrey just one spot after Baldwin, Brady and Brees in the 3rd?!
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Jul 9, 2017 02:53
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Vereen is going to get all the third down work, and Gallman is going to get every chance to take the job and even if he doesn't, will probably vulture some touchdowns. Perkins doesn't have a hype train for good reason, not because of his name (lol).
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Jul 9, 2017 14:56
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Drunk Nerds posted:Giants going to score a lot, perkins is probably their best weapon inside the 5 You misspelled Odell Beckham, Brandon Marshall, Sterling Shepard, and Wayne Gallman
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Jul 9, 2017 17:39
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Drunk Nerds posted:Haha, I shouldn't have used a qualifying term like "best." Let me see if I can dig up some numbers for targets inside the 5 for the 2016 Giants, and get to the bottom of this. I don't know about inside the 5, can get red zone targets by searching for it on Google. Not sure how much to take from that, though, with the addition of Marshall and Vereen (from injury).
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Jul 9, 2017 22:44
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Forever_Peace posted:Pro football reference should be able to accommodate that. Oh nice. I don't think I've ever gone too crazy with their filter, just used it to search like "players at position X drafted within Y pick range".
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Jul 10, 2017 00:08
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Amergin posted:I just joined a new Dynasty league and decided to punt/draft for youth for the first time and it was a blast. Nah, that's absolutely not tanking. Your understanding of it is right: set a full lineup each week and you're not "tanking" in any bad sense of the word. For your actual roster, mostly think you'd have been better off selling Zeke for a haul and stocking up on better WRs. Everyone after Cooks is a massive question mark. Not too late to do that if you choose, of course.
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Jul 10, 2017 14:38
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It's always good to have 1sts and feel out other owners during the draft. I've gotten some stupid steals when the rookie fever blinders go on. That 2014 draft class has inflated the value of picks for the last few years.
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Jul 11, 2017 02:58
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VietCampo posted:I mean if JStew does pan out and still gives you RB2 numbers, that's great, but i'd rather let someone else find that out. At least in Perkins case, he's got a clear cut path to being the starting RB with minimal competition besides Vereen? Vereen (edit: if PPR!) or Gallman in the last round or off the wire is more appealing to me than Perkins in the 6th or 7th or whatever. If we're talking draft capital and all that, Giants wouldn't have taken a big bruiser in the 4th this year if they thought their run game was good. JAG. sourdough fucked around with this message at 23:00 on Jul 11, 2017 |
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Jul 11, 2017 22:44
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