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curufinor
Apr 4, 2016

by Smythe

Cold on a Cob posted:

Youtube is just another 'winner-take-all market' - a few people rise to the top and do really well and the rest lose money or earn less than a steady, minimum wage job. You see it with sports, entertainment, and other interesting places like criminal gangs.

There's a review by Gabriex or someone like that floating about poking at positive feedback effects. There are no markets without positive feedback effects including labor market, so it's all a power law (the exponents are different). General property of information processing dealios. Your dns cache will have positive feedback power laws in it, same deal with contract sizes, war sizes, etc etc

You can have equality if your market doesn't process any info

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curufinor
Apr 4, 2016

by Smythe

ate all the Oreos posted:

Some guy said if you kinda squint you can model every process in society as some kind of exponential curve. The poster then draws the dubious conclusion that as a result equality is impossible, or something.

ok it's Gabaix. Not good at giving art school explanations, sorry, pick up what you'd like, this paper is for econ folks so it barely has any math in it. many things in power law land barely have any math in it lol, or have high school math

http://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~xgabaix/papers/pl-ar.pdf

Basically, power laws (not exponential curves... integral of exponential curve is finite, integral of power law curve in certain domain is not, very often power laws are at the edge of that domain. think of the horn of Gabriel if you ever learned it in calculus class) are generally omnipresent in nature. People put forth variegated processes to explain this but because it spans like two dozen fields, they are probably all bullshit. But it's not bullshit, the claim that money itself in certain domains takes upon a power law character. MEJ Newman in his very friendly review(https://arxiv.org/abs/0706.1062) claims that you can shove most of these into two claims: positive feedback effects or universal criticality effects (sometimes self-organized sometimes not), esp in percolation phase transition.

Gabaix claims positive feedback effect, along with other random phenomena. This is pretty usual in capitalism because it's called capitalism, there's a loving positive feedback effect on money, Jesus Christ noted this fact, Matthew 13:12 "For whosoever hath, to him shall be given, and he shall have more abundance: but whosoever hath not, from him shall be taken away even that he hath.", the fundamental activity of capitalism is loaning money to people and getting it back with interest

actual study of this is reaaaal difficult, given that poo poo starts showing up at n=20k or whatever and by definition the top category will be of super loving low cardinality.

tldr: you show me an equal society wrt money, I show you a crock of poo poo. you can futz with parameters (eg: sweden is more equal than angola) but you can't change the functional form (it's still the case that one dude in sweden owns an appreciable percentage of all of the loving money)

not even communism helps

god is dead

dehumanize, face to bloodshed

curufinor fucked around with this message at 19:08 on May 5, 2017

curufinor
Apr 4, 2016

by Smythe

curufinor posted:

not even communism helps

not kidding

http://www.roiw.org/1993/23.pdf
fits lognormal distribution to USSR income distribution. lognormal is similar in power law in that it's got huge loving kurtosis out the rear end and dissimilar in that mean is never literally infinite (but mean can be quite deranged wrt median, lookit that skew). discriminating betw. power law and lognormal is a difficult game. but it's definitely of the same functional form as the capitalist economies

curufinor
Apr 4, 2016

by Smythe
https://www.reddit.com/r/SubredditDrama/comments/6d966c/rnyc_debates_whether_or_not_a_150k_salary_is/

curufinor
Apr 4, 2016

by Smythe

cowofwar posted:

Only way to be hosed more for less is to be a sex worker.

incorrect, prostitutes can make quite a lot of money: this one makes 10k/6wks

https://www.reddit.com/r/TwoXChromosomes/comments/2vdj3i/im_a_sex_worker_at_one_of_nevadas_legal_brothels/

curufinor
Apr 4, 2016

by Smythe

I thought "on a freemium app" meant, "creating the app"

no, this guy spent $125k on the inapp purchases on clash of kings

curufinor
Apr 4, 2016

by Smythe
Bird bird bird

curufinor
Apr 4, 2016

by Smythe
hosed up attitudes towards food in silicon valley:

My first year at Stanford i watched 4 separate dudes eat their first orange

All of them upper middle class like nearly everyone else, they were just hosed up enough so that they'd never eaten an orange

So i forced them to

I was not surprised at all by soylent

curufinor
Apr 4, 2016

by Smythe

canyoneer posted:

How are they going to avoid scurvy on long sea voyages?

Fresh potato fries have barely enough vitamin c

curufinor
Apr 4, 2016

by Smythe

Pryor on Fire posted:

Pretty sure those five guys "grilled cheese" sandwiches are just like american on a bun which is a pretty tough bar to come under goddamn five guys is disgusting

Err wait is all fast food still american cheese I'm too out of touch

the cheese is not the secret
a five guys bun is cake minus 90% of the sugar

curufinor
Apr 4, 2016

by Smythe

Solice Kirsk posted:

Soooo, bread?

Cake is 1 part egg 1 part milk 1 part butter 2 parts sugar 3 parts flour, leavened by baking powder

Normal burger buns are 1 part egg 1 part oil 4 parts water 12 parts flour, leavened with yeast

curufinor
Apr 4, 2016

by Smythe

Tiny Brontosaurus posted:

Man, SA is really demographically weird. I don't have much use for Snapchat but I know what it is. I know what lots of things I don't use are.

Lol, a friend of a friend of a friend founded snapchat and I still don't understand anything about it

curufinor
Apr 4, 2016

by Smythe

Should reopen the thread and move it back here

curufinor
Apr 4, 2016

by Smythe
thought of ants and
https://gfycat.com/QuaintDistortedEgg

curufinor
Apr 4, 2016

by Smythe

Jeffrey of YOSPOS posted:

It is statistically true - for most folks eating a modern diet, weight gain is permanent, and it should generally be modeled as such. As a society, for whatever reason, we decided that huge portions of the country gaining weight all at once was a collective failure of personal responsibility, and not, you know, an ongoing systemic problem with our understanding of nutrition and a failure to instill correct values. (Or perhaps, successfully instilling incorrect values.) All sorts of things could explain the causes here but one thing is pretty clear - generalizing from the outlier example of a person who has lost a lot of weight blinds us from attempting to figure out the actual cause in lieu of fruitlessly banging the personal responsibility hammer.

I mean, they have done twin studies where they carefully regulate the amount of activity and food people eat in a closed environment. Each pair of twins tends to gain or lose the same amount, but the variance between pairs is large. Ignoring genetic variance here is foolishness. Combine that with the ongoing, uh, "mental load" of poverty and it's not really hard to see why, by and large, the amount of people who successfully lose a lot of weight is tiny.

I mean, there is a grand and manipulable important variable, which is basically "what society you live in". Immigrants to los estados unidos reliably and systematically gain a fuckton of weight: immigrants to the Netherlands or Japan from way fatter countries reliably and systematically lose some weight. Koreans vs Korean Americans is 4% obesity vs 25% obesity by American standards, in a drat homogeneous gene pool

So you could still have a drat manipulable fatness variable without personal responsibility

(USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)

curufinor
Apr 4, 2016

by Smythe

Noggin Monkey posted:

That guy is not nearly as good of a writer as he thinks he is.

I think he was imitating the register's bofh house style tbh

curufinor
Apr 4, 2016

by Smythe
horses are vegan

curufinor
Apr 4, 2016

by Smythe
firecalc is mc method
i always wondered if there's a great parametric dealio for this poo poo
poo poo online I've seen is a lotta linear regressions and somehow-less-sophisticated-things

curufinor
Apr 4, 2016

by Smythe
monte carlo method. it's like human centipede, for your data. and less poo poo. but nonparametrics req lots of data and the prediction is worse sometimes, if you have a coherent theory of the phenomenon that you can stuff into a parametric statistical model

e: ok, bootstrap is deffo more "human centipede for your data", but you get what i'm talking about

if you have background in this poo poo i guess

curufinor
Apr 4, 2016

by Smythe
if you lie in any way shape or form on a clearance investigation they will ream your butt
ream it

it will never feel the same

curufinor
Apr 4, 2016

by Smythe

Guest2553 posted:

:aaaaa:

Wedding...good (with money}?


I want to believe

Cousin spent 100,000,000 krw on her wedding (about 90kusd) and got 250,000,000 krw in envelopes

curufinor
Apr 4, 2016

by Smythe

Motronic posted:

I'm not sure how to make this sound socially acceptable because I'm me. So let me just present my experience from being in high school in the 90s:

- "smart kids" went to academic classes where they learned college prep stuff like accelerated math, science and languages

- "normal kids" got the same, but not as advanced

- "dumb kids" got some of that, but also things like a class called "math for life", where they were actually taught how to balance a checkbook, make a budget for a home, shop for basic necessities, etc.

I'd say the last group probably got the best deal here.

ninja edit: including the fact that they were actually presented with trade school options instead of just "you have to go to college or you're a failure. Underwater basket weaving degrees count just as much as any other one. Just go to college."

30 kids in my 11th grade linear algebra class. I keep up with like 15 of them. Of the 15, 6 use that poo poo in day to day life, including myself

so you just need to go to like the 30th best school in the nation to see real use out of that hmm

e: lol balancing a checkbook like it's 1999
e, futher: lol the task of making a budget is way the gently caress easier with 10k/mo takehome rather than 3k/mo takehome hmm

curufinor fucked around with this message at 04:32 on Jul 12, 2017

curufinor
Apr 4, 2016

by Smythe

ate all the Oreos posted:

This is the saddest humblebrag

I wish that was a humblebrag

e: if you want to categorize that post, it's more of a "god is dead, dehumanize and face to bloodshed"

curufinor fucked around with this message at 07:29 on Jul 12, 2017

curufinor
Apr 4, 2016

by Smythe
being in a hosed money situation is not like hell
they invented hell to describe hosed money situations

manichaean religion came like a century after currency was invented

count the amount of financial poo poo jesus talks about in the bible

there's a lot

really really a lot
huge amount

curufinor
Apr 4, 2016

by Smythe
Yeah, all the vocational stuff is taught in a nice modern way in, say, Korea. In America, there is still, i think, a literal plurality who teach kids checkbooks and not anything online and useful.

To get to the Korean state of things, you just have to spend as much and get as much as the Koreans. A majority of middle class Korean families with a kid spends more on education for that kid than on food. That, along with enough misogyny such that the smartest women go on directly to the teachers colleges, is what makes that work. The Finnish should probably be copied instead on the teachers colleges front.

I mean, they also do the spend more on education than on food thing in NYC, the South bay, Fairfax and environs, and various other upper middle class and rich places, but even lower middle class Koreans spend that much.

Some of it is also cultural changes. Delay of gratification is remarkably stable after like the age of 5, or so the Mischel experiment story goes.

curufinor fucked around with this message at 14:10 on Jul 12, 2017

curufinor
Apr 4, 2016

by Smythe

Hoodwinker posted:

Even better than practical info would be the ability to think critically, which is supposed to be what a lot of the theory is about but gets glossed over to meet testing standards, rushed due to lack of resources, or doesn't connect to the students who are crammed 30 to a teacher. It's a much more complicated problem than making sure kids know how the modern equivalent of checkbook balancing.

No critical thinking teaching intervention has ever shown to be of any use for anything, is my reading of the literature, tbh. The grand story about critical thinking dying in this country is mostly about the increased rate of scams generally, which have the same low rate of success that they have had previously but which add up to a higher rate of practical deception because there's so many more of them.

Conversion rate on nigerian email (formerly Spanish businessman) scams is best predicted by income inequality, something like that. Of course individuals who exist with higher education are empirically less susceptible but this is not an experiment and the natural experiments have been a little more dire

curufinor fucked around with this message at 15:20 on Jul 12, 2017

curufinor
Apr 4, 2016

by Smythe

Hoodwinker posted:

This is really interesting. Can you link to some of the literature? What you say about the prevalence of stories about scams making them seem more effective does jive with just about every other historical account of humanity's foibles though.

I wonder if the income inequality thing is just a higher willingness to find a solution - any solution - to the problems of being poor. To a person with money, "Here's an opportunity to get a slightly higher bank account number" means a lot less than to a person that hears, "Do you want to escape the hell that is poverty in America?"

God, the conversion on nigerian scams thing is in an out of print book in a special purpose psych library somewhere, so that will be a pita

I think i can get you a cite for critical thinking intervention tho

curufinor
Apr 4, 2016

by Smythe

Hoodwinker posted:

Yeah the critical thinking part was what I was interested in. That'd be rad. You're rad. Thanks.

citation format's gonna be hosed cuz lol proper citation format in a dead internet forum

Sternberg, R. J. and Bhana, K. (1986). “Synthesis of research on the effectiveness of intellectual skills programs: Snake-oil remedies or miracle cures?” Educational Leadership, 44, 60-67
the conclusion is given in that one that these two or three peer reviewed programs might work

hint: unreplicable

McMillan J "Enhancing college students' critical thinking: A review of studies" Research in Higher Education 1987
Norman GR "Effectiveness of instruction in critical appraisal (evidence based medicine) skills: a critical appraisal" CMAJ 1998
Behar-Horenstein et al "Teaching Critical Thinking Skills In Higher Education: A Review Of The Literature" Journal of College Teaching and Learning 2011

nobody seems to publish a lot about high school, cuz high school teachers don't do research

curufinor
Apr 4, 2016

by Smythe
IRB's are a pain in the butt in general, so it's a mere incremental increase in pain in the butt
but high school teachers can't do research at all, most can barely read papers

not that I wish to imply that most ed school students can do research

curufinor
Apr 4, 2016

by Smythe

quote:


my inner child wanted to know why math worked and how much money i could get in life and how cooties worked

lol

curufinor
Apr 4, 2016

by Smythe
i wonder if there's any big bwm stories with memeing that aren't bwl separately? i mean, the act itself is free but it's done by foolish people, so there has to be a correlation

curufinor
Apr 4, 2016

by Smythe
literally no such thing as a zero risk account

FDIC insured? but you have to price in the risk the FDIC implodes cuz orangeman crony was embezzling all the money allocated or something idiotic like that
literal blocks of gold? lol tomorrow we find a russian gold mine with 90% of the gold in the world
treasury bonds? tips? lol orange avatar of cocaine

curufinor
Apr 4, 2016

by Smythe
Korean education system in particular went from mud huts to calculusin10thgrade in like 50 years, so a lot of the face bullshit is from people who were mostly educated in mud huts (ok, pitiless concrete schools). Doesn't say that the creative thinking is there, but if you studiously avoid workplaces with people age >40 in them it'll be ok

curufinor
Apr 4, 2016

by Smythe
I feel like grad school is a classic bwm step in life but it doesn't get as much love as horses dying of thinkingofants

https://www.reddit.com/r/personalfinance/comments/3393fr/i_have_no_idea_how_to_pay_for_grad_school/

curufinor
Apr 4, 2016

by Smythe
No place on earth where you should make a start-up except for the sf bay area and no start-up on earth you should work for, for less than 100 grand and a deec amount of equity vested 4 years cliff at 1 year

(The equity can vary orders of magnitude, that's fine. If you have less than 5% don't count on getting rich unless the company becomes a tech major)

(The first employee gets 2-4%, later employees slope down w/ exception of c level hires)

curufinor fucked around with this message at 15:52 on Jul 13, 2017

curufinor
Apr 4, 2016

by Smythe

I'm going to need to you make a list of other places where you can get 2-100 million for objectively stupid ideas

curufinor
Apr 4, 2016

by Smythe

Subjunctive posted:

Goalposts, baby, but Seattle, Boston, NYC, Paris, definitely definitely Beijing.

You're saying "do not start any business anywhere in the world but these 3 area codes", which is just stupid.

Beijing, sure, if you have the guanxi i guess
But I've been told the experience of raising is like purgatory in nyc compared to the bay area, and like hell in other places

And I'm not saying don't start a business, just saying don't start a business with world spanning ambition

I don't know if you buy that definition of start-up or not, but i think it's a decent operational definition

E: and judging by that guy's behavior, he was under that operational definition too

curufinor fucked around with this message at 17:01 on Jul 13, 2017

curufinor
Apr 4, 2016

by Smythe

Subjunctive posted:

I don't, and neither do most of the 15 startups who pitch me for funding in a given month. I'm not sure where you're sampling, so maybe you see a different company mix, but very few founders I see are Trying To Be Google.

Don't you do small angel rounds?

You definitely start getting the megalomaniacs at series a, at least. Worked for a few of those

curufinor
Apr 4, 2016

by Smythe

Subjunctive posted:

No, I don't do angel rounds. I write $750K-$2.5M cheques on rounds up to about $4M, for a first cheque.

Ah, well, ok. You do definitely see a lot of megalomaniacs hiring, at least, but this is the delicate art of fibbing to engineers, anyhow.

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curufinor
Apr 4, 2016

by Smythe

Subjunctive posted:

Do you even remember what you're talking about?

Yes. By "megalomaniacs" i mean those people with probably delusional but still strong world spanning pretensions, aka those people within the more limited definition of a start-up. You don't get nearly that volume of that kind of people in nyc , for example

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