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Xae posted:I would be ok talking about other elections if people could keep a shred of consistency about them. Center left candidate draws less support than prior, debatably more left, candidate who most viewed as having much stronger messaging. Left barely lost an election they were supposed to be completely destroyed in, and did so despite constant intra-party sabotage. Also they picked up way more seats than they have in a while and it doesn't even look close to done. Center-left wins blow out against deeply unpopular crypto-nazi after the further left party basically collapsed. Perhaps... context matters?
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Jun 20, 2017 19:07
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redneck nazgul posted:Counterpoint: only one of these examples involved americans Agreed? I'm not saying Ossof should run as a hard left, I'm not going to pretend to understand GA-06's culture. I'm just saying people talk about those three different events in different ways because they are more different than just "THE LEFT did the loss/win against THE RIGHT, you know, the only left and the only right, in this the shared global community."
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Jun 20, 2017 19:09
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Spiritus Nox posted:Yeah huh there's no parallels to America there Trump is racist as gently caress. Le Pen is like maybe two steps removed from Holocaust denialism. She's definitely been an apologist for France's actions during WW2. That's not getting into her dad who she expelled for his views on the Holocaust.
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Jun 20, 2017 19:14
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Spiritus Nox posted:These really don't seem like meaningful differences from a man who has called for religious discrimination and the execution of black criminals exonerated by DNA evidence, and endorsed torture, war plunder, and the bombing of civilians. Le Pen is just more specific about the ways in which she admires fascists. I'm not saying there's a huge gap between the two, just that one is a horrible American racist in a very familiar homegrown way while the other is the head of a party filled with open Nazi apologists in a country with a personal history of Nazi occupation. I suspect even edit: Actually, I should really be underestimating the racists as a general rule, but still. TGLT fucked around with this message at 19:26 on Jun 20, 2017 |
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Jun 20, 2017 19:22
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mcmagic posted:It's amazing that a seat that was a 1 point difference in the last general election is even close with Trump's approval rating being at 35%. The dems should be winning these seats by 10 points. Are you talking about GA-06? That seat was won by Tom Price by more than 20 points.
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Jun 20, 2017 20:10
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mcmagic posted:Trump won by 1. You can't go by what an incumbent won by last time. You said the seat, and the seat was +20. That does, in fact, matter. Republicans who couldn't hold their nose to vote Trump still voted in his party's rep there.
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Jun 20, 2017 20:16
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mcmagic posted:This is bullshit. Presidential approval rating is the best determining factor of midterm elections. They are, except you are attempting to apply a national number to a single district. You don't see how maybe those two things don't line up the way you think they do?
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Jun 20, 2017 21:32
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mcmagic posted:Do you have Trump's approval in GA6? I'm trying to find it but I can't, but that doesn't mean I'm going to start pretending his national numbers mean much here. Or even necessarily state numbers, although I wish I could at least find that as it would be a bit closer.
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Jun 20, 2017 21:37
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mcmagic posted:Do you have Trump's approval in GA6? Here's basically the most recent polling for GA-06 I can find. It puts Trump at 51% Approve/41% Disapprove, but it's from back in March. On top of that the pollster, Trafalgar Group, isn't particularly well rated by 538. They have been using them in their GA-06 Ossoff/Handel polling, but give the group a C rating so eh? Probably too far back to really draw much in the way of conclusions ultimately. Anyways, the point is just because people from Country/Population A are predominantly one thing, doesn't mean people from District/Subpopulation B are the same. Scandinavians are generally tall as gently caress, but I wouldn't expect that out of a remote Norwegian village where everyone suffers from malnutrition.
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Jun 20, 2017 21:49
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Boon posted:Wait, was politics being tribal ever in doubt? They had hope, because they failed to understand that hope is a mistake. 'Course the other part of that is you're supposed to work at it, but instead I guess Ossoff's people sent emails blaming potential voters and donors? Or did that turn out to be fake?
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Jun 21, 2017 03:03
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:Congresswoman Karen Handel is a piece of poo poo. Oof.
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Jun 21, 2017 03:05
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Spiritus Nox posted:When millions of people's access to healthcare is hanging on the little league team - yeah, basically. No, they don't. They only need to win about 24 races they had previously lost. This result's not as good as it needs to be but it's not the end of the world. Now if the dems don't get a good strategy down by midterms, well poo poo. And dems being dems uh jesus christ seriously who sends antagonizing emails to potential donors
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Jun 21, 2017 03:24
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Guy Goodbody posted:Dems winning just enough of a majority to stop the Republicans shouldn't be the goal. Let's try to imagine aiming higher I mean I can dream of a hundred seat tsunami, but one step at a time here. Gotta flip the House before you can start securing it.
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Jun 21, 2017 03:29
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Bottom Liner posted:This isn't a slam against democrats, it's a slam on all the racist fucktwats that live in the south. Back in freshman year of college I got woken up by one of my roommates blaring Johnny Rebel to the delight of his friends. He was a real treat of a roommate.
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Jun 21, 2017 03:31
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Guy Goodbody posted:Maybe they should've kicked Lieberman out of the party earlier and not let him keep his place on Committees. Maybe I hope that Dems learned that, and if Manchin ever fucks up a vote when they need him they should punt his rear end out into the cold.
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Jun 21, 2017 03:37
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Covok posted:9/11 may have pulled things, but things were less partisan back then. Now, Republicans have gone full crazy on the political and voter level. I remember a loving Starcraft custom maps site talking about "YOU'RE WITH US OR YOU'RE AGAINST US!" 9/11 loving busted some people.
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Jun 21, 2017 04:56
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ImpAtom posted:Why are you assuming that I'm not actually impacted by this? Because you sure as poo poo have been. My mom just had a mastectomy. Without the federal marketplace she wouldn't have insurance, and without that insurance she wouldn't have even gone in for screening and caught her cancer as early as she did. poo poo she probably would have been like my uncle, putting off screening until it's potentially metastatic. Ossoff's loss is not the best outcome, but it's not a disaster. Democrats are outperforming by 8 percentage points across the nation. That could be higher, but it is a start and sometimes yeah you take what you can get. That's not optimism, that's a realistic assessment of the situation. There is poo poo to be done but you and other people in this thread like you keep bringing up that people will die without this coverage as if, yeah, we don't loving know that.
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Jun 21, 2017 16:52
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ImpAtom posted:I am on Obamacare. I also have an incredible serious stomach issue in the last year which came very close to leaving me non-functional and required surgery that even with Obamacare left me with incredibly heavy medical bills and which requires ongoing treatment and medication to leave me functional. I am genuinely and wholeheartedly terrified of what is going to happen in the next year not because it will impact me, personally, on a very significant level. This is in addition to other medical issues including multiple scoliosis which has gotten worse as I've gotten older and leaves me frequently in crippling pain. I don't particularly want to go into every goddamn problem my lovely failing body has in this thread but if you're looking for me to admit "I care about this because it will impact me, personally," then yes, it does, in addition to friends and family members. (That multiple scoliosis is something both my father and sister have too.) I'm not looking for that kind of admittance, and I am sorry to hear that you are in such a rough state. The point is that you aren't alone in being worried about the ACA, you're not alone in knowing what is at stake when Democrats fail to make gains. There is poo poo to talk about Ossoff's loss. The Dems need to find a balance between going after Trump and the Republicans for their policies while pushing and promoting their own. They need to learn how to convince voters that they are in the fight that they are absolutely already in. But part of that is actually grappling with what Ossoff's loss means in context, and that means acknowledging that it was a better performance in that district than Dems have done in a while. Part of fixing failure is acknowledging what worked or was okay but can be improved, otherwise you get poo poo like people convinced that you should never ever mention Trump because then you're just "being the uninspiring party of Not-Trump."
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Jun 21, 2017 17:09
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skylined! posted:don't you get it Okay, that's not people's positions and I really hope you know that. Had Ossoff won, a lot of Republicans might have taken a second to consider that maybe the AHCA will kill them in their next election. And the fact that leaders in the Republican party have been doing their damndest to insulate their members from town halls, there's some merit to that idea.
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Jun 21, 2017 17:13
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Xombie posted:If they weren't considering this then it would have been passed two months ago. It isn't the leaders trying to insulate members from town halls, it's the members themselves. Wasn't that part of the reason they were pushing for eating into the August recess? I might be misremembering that. Also keeping Republicans in the dark has absolutely been why they've tried to ram this bill through as hard, as fast, and as secretly as possible. They only need to lose a few members to kill this whole thing dead. edit: Shifty Pony posted:And many of those yelling were really pissed off about the "Doom is upon us! We have already lost!" fundraising emails. no seriously gently caress whoever sent those emails. I know people rag on "the enemy is powerful and weak at the same time!" poo poo but that second half is the point. They're powerful and overwhelming, unless we work together.
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Jun 21, 2017 17:21
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Pollyanna posted:I'm just sick of getting blueballed on this Russia poo poo. Well it's probably going to take minimum months if not a year for this to all shake out, so be prepared to have balls bluer than the deepest indigo. Prepare for 「Stygian Blue Balls 」. 
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Jun 21, 2017 17:42
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KickerOfMice posted:Everyone is losing thier minds over this, and yes, it is funny. But I cannot see it having any meaningful effect on anything, really. What's a pee-soaked bed when nobody cared about grabbing pussy, or 'shooting people on 5th avenue and not losing a vote', or declaring the free media the enemy of the nation? Because those are all basically accepted male behavior, especially amongst conservatives, but pee is icky pooey. Also it means that the Russians were or could blackmail the president which I guess is big too, but really I think that it being gross and aberrant sexual behavior would get to his base more.
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Jun 21, 2017 21:05
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Shimrra Jamaane posted:I don't understand Ted's angle here. Why is he opposed? Because he's a scorpion and he doesn't know how to not sting. The only question is if this means the bill is about to get worse or if they just try to let the whole thing die finally.
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Jun 22, 2017 19:15
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ozmunkeh posted:Wait, do people actually believe these "defections" aren't entirely stage managed? Paul and Cruz have no compunctions about loving over the party for their own image or convictions or whatever. Like Cruz is around despite the party, not because of it.
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Jun 22, 2017 19:23
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Shimrra Jamaane posted:Remember when Lindsey Graham said that if someone shot Ted Cruz on the Senate floor no one would convict them? I still think my favorite is "if the lights go out in the Senate, the question isn't who stabs Ted Cruz but who doesn't."
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Jun 22, 2017 19:27
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Covok posted:Seriously, dog tax was repealed months ago. Unlike Republicans, I believe in Petr posted:Leftists enjoy contributing for the greater good. GOD drat IT
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Jun 23, 2017 18:17
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FlamingLiberal posted:Do we think Murkowski or Collins might vote no? Depends. If it's definitively dead and doesn't get quietly tabled, they'll probably vote no. If it's alive but they aren't needed, maybe Murkowski votes no. If it can only pass with their votes, Collins is almost certainly a yes and Murkowski is I think probably a yes?
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Jun 23, 2017 18:51
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Elotana posted:I think Cruz is the least likely of the four to have the nerve. Lee or Johnson very well might. Johnson hasn't put out specific public demands like Cruz has, just a general statement that they should start over. Unless he's given demands to McConnell privately, that's not really the kind of thing you can accommodate. What are you talking about? Cruz's whole ascent into the Senate happened because he dicked over the party and beat the former Lt. Governor in Texas for that position. Remember that time he did all that grand standing and oops let the Dems fill some vacancies? Cruz made his demands public to put pressure on Republicans to cave.
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Jun 23, 2017 20:20
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 holy poo poo he is bad at this whole crime thing
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Jun 24, 2017 03:27
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STAC Goat posted:I apologize for repeating myself but I find this poo poo really frustrating. Has anyone in this thread actually done that though? Yeah you got some morons in that tweet's replies convinced this is Trump playing 69th Dimensional Chess to distract from the AHCA, as if that is how it works, but it's been pretty clear from the start he just spouts this poo poo off with no forethought.
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Jun 24, 2017 03:52
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STAC Goat posted:I feel like I saw some posts that did it but I don't want to turn this into a fight. I just am having a bad day and was frustrated to see people seemingly play into the RWM narrative as I feel like we've seen a lot of this week. And I just wanted to repost that link because I feel like the inability to embed that video is stopping people from plainly seeing that this is another example of Trump watching Fox News and misunderstanding what was being said. I mean to be fair it is absolutely so bullshit some people do buy into. But yeah a little self care is not a bad idea.
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Jun 24, 2017 04:09
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Duke Igthorn posted:I LOVE Trump's constant supervillainesque "No one can stop me!! Mnya heh heh heh" taunts! Like it is literally my favorite thing about all of this poo poo is that he has just, repeatedly, stood up in public and screamed "Then why haven't you stopped me yet?? MmmmmmnnnnnnnYAHAHHAHHAHAHAHA!!" AND NO ONE HAS STOPPED HIM YET! Holy poo poo how cartoonishly villainous can someone actually be in real life?? He has retroactively justified every single ham-fisted greedy villain character. I used to think songs like Capital G were a bit on the nose but welp here we are with the AHCA and even Hallelujah Money is downright subtle by comparison.
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Jun 24, 2017 18:56
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RZApublican posted:It's probably happening because Trump realized that Abbas isn't Jewish That or Abbas said no to something and they were all reminded yet again of the unpleasant fact that being the US president isn't like being the CEO of the world or some poo poo. TGLT fucked around with this message at 20:04 on Jun 24, 2017 |
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Jun 24, 2017 19:54
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mcmagic posted:He just wants attention. He needs to vote Yes for his re election in 2018. No he doesn't, not if he can spin it as his continuing crusade of True Conservatism vs THE CORRUPT PARTY ESTABLISHMENT AND DC FAT CATS. I said it earlier and it bears repeating, his whole career in the senate started by loving over the party establishment and dropping Dewhurst. The only thing that matters to him is maintaining that image of the true conservative underdog against Those Elites.
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Jun 26, 2017 20:42
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mcmagic posted:Then why has he been groveling before Trump since the primary ended? He knows he needs Dear Leader's fans to win in 18. Trump and McConnell are not the same nor occupy the same position in the minds of conservatives, especially tea party types. Trump, in the minds of his supporters, does not represent the Republican establishment. McConnell does. I'm not saying it's guaranteed he'll vote against it, but it absolutely isn't guaranteed he bends the knee. Not to some one like McConnell. Nor is there necessarily any reason to believe he would pay a price for rebellion. If Trump goes after him on this then maybe, but if McConnell does so what he's dealt with the GOP's leadership before.
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Jun 26, 2017 20:51
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mcmagic posted:It's all about Trump voters who know who Mitch McConnell is aren't reachable. He needs Trumps fans in 2018. Okay, McMagic, I can't say poo poo about West Virginia but I can say poo poo about Texas. Texans love the idea of pissing off some one who thinks they have authority over them, even if it's just the dumbass Texan thinking that some one else thinks that. Doubly so for conservatives. Unless Trump moves against McConnell, then it's just GOP Leadership going up against our guy (uggg) Cruz. And even if Trump does I don't know that plays as well as you think. Cruz won the Texan primary 104 to Trump's 48. Trump's popularity is waning here even with conservatives, I don't know that outsider New Yorker Trump fighting against "homegrown" Cruz ends with Trump winning. edit: Here's the source for primary results. In terms of votes, that's 1.2 million to 757k. TGLT fucked around with this message at 21:02 on Jun 26, 2017 |
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Jun 26, 2017 20:59
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mcmagic posted:There is no way the avg Texas GOP voter cares about internal senate caucus politics and I bet Trump has around a 85% approval rating among Texas Republicans. I just don't believe Cruz would vote against Trump. I could be wrong but I really don't think I am. McMagic, I am not talking about "internal senate caucus politics". I am talking about anyone attempting to retaliate against Cruz for saying no. If it's McConnell, that poo poo is like rain on a loving raincoat. Hell that poo poo is like rainwater to a dam, it would just make Cruz more popular. And if Trump does go after Cruz like he's going after Heller, I still don't know that it actually has the disastrous effect on his popularity that you seem to think it would. Also, you also don't have to "bet" about approval ratings. Trump's approval rating is at 85%. But again, this state voted for Cruz in the primary. Here's a poll on Cruz's job approval compared to Trump's job approval with conservatives. It's not by much, and it's apples to oranges, but hardline conservatives have a higher approval of Cruz than Trump. And they all disapprove of his performance less than Trump's. edit: fixed second link TGLT fucked around with this message at 21:17 on Jun 26, 2017 |
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Jun 26, 2017 21:10
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Pander posted:jesus gently caress enough with the bold proclamations of invincibility. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t4W4TBLqpVU Seriously if that poo poo is dead let it be dead, no need to try and refight a won battle for a more complete victory.
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Jun 27, 2017 01:12
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Space Cadet Omoly posted:Isn't Rand a definite "No" too? Although for completely different reasons then Heller and Collins. Yeah. If they can't get Heller and Collins they need to capitulate to Rand Paul's "destroy everything buy gold" plan and uh, I think they would have done that already if it would have gotten them to 50.
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Jun 28, 2017 19:43
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FlamingLiberal posted:They did, in that the Medicaid cuts are more severe in this bill than the House version. Except Rand Paul wants more than that, so they really haven't. Not yet anyways.
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Jun 28, 2017 19:50
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