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What is the best flav... you all know what this question is: This poll is closed. |
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|---|---|---|---|
| Labour |
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907 | 49.92% |
| Theresa May Team (Conservative) |
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48 | 2.64% |
| Liberal Democrats |
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31 | 1.71% |
| UKIP |
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13 | 0.72% |
| Plaid Cymru |
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25 | 1.38% |
| Green |
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22 | 1.21% |
| Scottish Socialist Party |
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12 | 0.66% |
| Scottish Conservative Party |
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1 | 0.06% |
| Scottish National Party |
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59 | 3.25% |
| Some Kind of Irish Unionist |
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4 | 0.22% |
| Alliance / Irish Nonsectarian |
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3 | 0.17% |
| Some Kind of Irish Nationalist |
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36 | 1.98% |
| Misc. Far Left Trots |
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35 | 1.93% |
| Misc. Far Right Fash |
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8 | 0.44% |
| Monster Raving Loony |
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49 | 2.70% |
| Space Navies Party |
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39 | 2.15% |
| Independent / Single Issue |
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2 | 0.11% |
| Can't Vote |
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188 | 10.35% |
| Won't Vote |
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8 | 0.44% |
| Spoiled Ballot |
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15 | 0.83% |
| Pissflaps |
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312 | 17.17% |
| Total: | 1817 votes | ||
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Trin Tragula posted:Here's an example of the sort of thing I'm talking about. Hastings & Rye is a Tory-held seat with a majority of 4,796 (9.4% of all votes cast). The UKIP vote last time was 6,786 (11%). The Lib Dems and Greens combine for about 3,500 votes. The current YouGov prediction* has the seat pissing all over national swing, with Labour winning on about 45%, the Tories on about 42%, and UKIP nowhere at about 5%. There's also a major comedy wild card here that they don't mention or attempt to quantify; this is Amber Rudd's seat. God knows what that's going to mean. The election is full of these seats: Ipswich, Reading East, Dudley North, Middlesbrough South & East Cleveland. They're going to be where the election is decided. Which way does the UKIP vote swing, are the kids going to turn out, and are there any local peculiarities?
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Jun 1, 2017 09:23
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. The headline numbers in H&R are a predicted 45-42 Labour victory, but you look at that for half a second and you quickly see that there's a gargantuan margin of error; the actual prediction is Labour on anywhere between 38% and 52%, and the Tories on anywhere between 36% and 47%. And the worst-case scenario of the Tories on 47% and Labour on 38% in the constituency lines up nicely inside the margin of error on that national TNS poll. They don't loving know what the seat breakdown's going to be! Nobody knows. But it's fun when the Times splashes their numbers on the front page as gospel...
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| # ¿ May 7, 2024 13:23 |
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Dunno whether this was posted yesterday but the Lib Dems latest election broadcast is pretty weird: https://www.facebook.com/libdems/videos/vb.5883973269/10155403423853270/ I think their video guy is on speed
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Jun 1, 2017 09:28
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This is loving great. PIssing myself
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Jun 1, 2017 21:12
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Seems like an odd thing for Jones to post that on Twitter first instead of following it up & doing a proper story with it. Or am I just entirely unversed in the ways of journos.
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Jun 1, 2017 22:14
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With the nuclear thing, isn't the obvious answer to literally just point out that if we got to that stage we'd all be dead anyway, so the only relevant thing to discuss is how not to get to that point... Maybe that wouldn't go down so well though lol. Then again from the guardian feed it looks like there were a bunch of the audience pretty keen on nuclear holocaust
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Jun 2, 2017 22:59
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When was the last time an exit poll was really really wrong. please someone kill my hope lest it kill me in the morning I am meant to be studying for a criminal law exam tomorrow but there shall be no crime in our socialist paradise
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Jun 8, 2017 22:12
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Beware - on radio 4 now they're saying a very high number of seats in the exit poll prediction were very uncertain. When we see the first couple come in we should get a sense of which way they will actually fall.
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Jun 8, 2017 22:44
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Holy making GBS threads cheese
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Jun 9, 2017 03:42
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Any big toss-up seats still to come? Or are we just waiting for rest of London /rural to go red/blue. Also what happened to Rudd
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Jun 9, 2017 04:21
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Saw something on Facebook about 800,000 members? loving insane if true Also hope to god JC isn't serious about the calling another election thing I saw earlier today, people really really don't want that poo poo right now
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Jun 11, 2017 00:44
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To be fair JC's weak points have been the bits in between elections. Except for a couple of weeks before the general where they just started to finally get their poo poo together, get a proper media strategy going etc. I'm much more confident this time around, given that and the PLP looking like they might've actually got the message finally. Also I still can't believe we're here and that Thursday night wasn't just a dream. I had to stay up cramming for an exam in the morning and it should've been one of the worst nights I've ever had, but it was just loving glorious. If it turns out I didn't fail, I attribute it to Corbz.
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Jun 11, 2017 21:28
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Is there evidence linking the fire to local government spending cuts? Corbyn is all over the news saying vaguely that but I haven't heard anything
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Jun 14, 2017 17:58
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So they're still not able to get up into the building? Crazy and horrifying that we don't know how many people got trapped up there 
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Jun 16, 2017 00:30
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| # ¿ May 7, 2024 13:23 |
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jabby posted:It's really funny that Ed Balls, Yvette Cooper and Tom Watson are all at Glastonbury traipsing around with the normal folk while Corbyn addresses the entire thing and is hailed as a hero. I can only imagine their annoyance being surrounded by people chanting the name of the guy they tried to force out. Benn spoke there for how many years??
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Jun 24, 2017 12:14
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