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What is the best flav... you all know what this question is: This poll is closed. |
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| Labour |
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907 | 49.92% |
| Theresa May Team (Conservative) |
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48 | 2.64% |
| Liberal Democrats |
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31 | 1.71% |
| UKIP |
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13 | 0.72% |
| Plaid Cymru |
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25 | 1.38% |
| Green |
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22 | 1.21% |
| Scottish Socialist Party |
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12 | 0.66% |
| Scottish Conservative Party |
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1 | 0.06% |
| Scottish National Party |
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59 | 3.25% |
| Some Kind of Irish Unionist |
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4 | 0.22% |
| Alliance / Irish Nonsectarian |
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3 | 0.17% |
| Some Kind of Irish Nationalist |
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36 | 1.98% |
| Misc. Far Left Trots |
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35 | 1.93% |
| Misc. Far Right Fash |
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8 | 0.44% |
| Monster Raving Loony |
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49 | 2.70% |
| Space Navies Party |
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39 | 2.15% |
| Independent / Single Issue |
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2 | 0.11% |
| Can't Vote |
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188 | 10.35% |
| Won't Vote |
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8 | 0.44% |
| Spoiled Ballot |
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15 | 0.83% |
| Pissflaps |
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312 | 17.17% |
| Total: | 1817 votes | ||
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Kurtofan posted:so did corby win the debate by default by being the only person who matters to show up
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Jun 1, 2017 06:07
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peanut- posted:https://twitter.com/jrmaidment/status/870248643869200384 Everytime a child says 'I don't believe in Brexit' there is a a little Englander somewhere that falls down dead.
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Jun 1, 2017 13:24
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Overminty posted:e: oops, wrong one haha, I hope they press her on this. Staying home and watching it on the telly. loving shambles.
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Jun 1, 2017 13:40
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Lord of the Llamas posted:It's not just London. They've closed a 20 point gap in Midlands/Wales and gone from a tie to 10 points ahead in the North in the crosstabs. just because I hate being combined with the Midlands, they were 10 points to in Wales off a 20 point swing last time and there's a new Welsh poll this afternoon. Hopefully we'll consolidate our position as the best nation on this benighted isle.
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Jun 1, 2017 13:45
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Apparently Jeremy Corbyn is about to reveal Labour's stance on Brexit in a speech.
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Jun 1, 2017 14:39
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mehall posted:This could be a real misstep. sounds like he's going to play it safe quote:The choice is not between Brexit or no Brexit, but between The Labour Party's Brexit for jobs and the Conservatives' Brexit which will be a risk to jobs across our country.
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Jun 1, 2017 14:47
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Lovechop posted:oh hell yeah motion to refer to Corbyn as Corbzy and the position of Prime Minister as Grime Minister on a permanent basis from now on.
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Jun 1, 2017 18:29
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Seeing Corbyn bring them up on stage today made me realise Labour should be pushing Keir Starmer/Emily Thornberry/Barry Gardiner as their Brexit negotiation team as opposed to BoJo/David Davis/Liam Fox. One of those teams definitely are a lot more presentable and strong/stable and it's not the Tory team.
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Jun 1, 2017 18:59
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waffle posted:If we're talking about local races now I think Southampton Itchen stands a decent chance of being a Labour gain--I wish the local party were focusing on it a little more (they're focused on keeping Southampton Test), but realistically that won't make a big difference in the end. I think because of the UKIP vote it'll prove harder to win than other marginals, if Labour win Itchen they'll likely be a long way towards forming a government. YouGov reckon Southampton Itchen is leaning Labour fwiw.
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Jun 1, 2017 20:27
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Pissflaps posted:Here's a somewhat more sober projection of the election result they've just used a uniform national swing and ignored subnational polling in London and Wales though. They have Gower (Con Maj: 26) as a 7% chance of switching hands which is more ridiculous than even some of those YouGov projections.
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Jun 2, 2017 03:03
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Unkempt posted:What's the black blob in, um, Reading or something? Buckingham, it's Bercow.
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Jun 2, 2017 03:11
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baka kaba posted:Not to be a jerk but isn't BritainElects basically a twitter feed that reposts poll results and keeps a rolling average? What model are these bold predictions arising from plugging in that rolling average and doing a uniform national swing from it. As a model, it's terrible. YouGov's is pretty good as a model, it's just hard to get enough data to produce a sensible and accurate result for it.
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Jun 2, 2017 03:21
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Pissflaps posted:That's an interesting thought. And my feeling is he isn't especially disliked and, despite campaigning for Remain, he delivered Brexit. I could see it happening too.
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Jun 2, 2017 09:07
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Pissflaps posted:Sturgeon warming up this tactic from 2015 to help the Tories gently caress the SNP, accelerationist little shits that they are
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Jun 2, 2017 09:19
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tithin posted:The SNP loving loathe the tories, are you surprised that they'd take any opportunity they could to utterly gently caress them? it's already been explained but they're utterly loving Labour (and subsequently everyone else), not the Tories by saying stuff like this. They want another Tory government because that's one of the conditions to make independence likelier. multijoe posted:Regardless of whatever you think she may be inferring or the chances of a Labour/SNP coalition Sturgeon as the speaker would be implying meaning, a listener infers meaning from what the speaker is saying.
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Jun 2, 2017 10:23
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Remember Ipsos Mori are using historical trends to determine youth vote, so do everything in your power to get the loving vote out. That raw polling data is magical. https://twitter.com/BobbyIpsosMORI/status/870598290659844096 does anyone have an update on that guy who was tweeting Labour's ceiling?
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Jun 2, 2017 12:33
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Are quote:Just a quick question which I would usually post on UKPolitics but it's such a poo poo show there with the momentum take over that I thought I'd post here.
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Jun 2, 2017 14:53
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forkboy84 posted:He's answered this before. He thinks that any result where the Conservatives are still in government means Corbyn should resign. even if Labour get a bigger share of the vote than they got in 2005. tbf, they got 35% of the vote with the Lib Dems on 22%. We're basically a two party state right now outside of Scotland.
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Jun 2, 2017 15:22
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namesake posted:Who were Farrons rivals for the leadership? Because no matter how awful they are they must just be furious that they lost to this guy. Norman Lamb I think.
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Jun 2, 2017 15:22
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I read that Alastair Campbell tweet as him promoting his son's piece not necessarily endorsing Corbyn himself.
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Jun 2, 2017 18:12
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Intrinsic Field Marshal posted:I oppose the regressive left's interpretation of social justice you know I can totally imagine the thing in your avatar making your posts
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Jun 2, 2017 19:05
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qhat posted:Just popping in from six months ago to say that Corbyn is completely unelectable and needs to go Labour will get 24% of the vote (I think this is still Dan Hodge's line so he can continue his streak of being wrong about everything)
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Jun 3, 2017 07:27
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It's been two years since Jeremy Corbyn announced he was standing for leadership of the Labour Party.
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Jun 3, 2017 08:40
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ronya posted:two-thirds is not enough to achieve the YouGov scenario, which iirc requires something like 80% youth turnout Not quite... quote:Take our most recent poll. After we had weighted our sample, taken account of how likely people say they are to vote, and weighted down the answers of those people who didn’t vote last time, we were left with a sample that implies turnout of 51% among people under 25 and 75% among people aged 65+; a turnout gap of 24 points between young and old turnout in the referendum for 18-24 year olds was 63%, please vote and go do GOTV stuff if you are able.
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Jun 3, 2017 13:44
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YouGov's seat projections updated Conservative 42% 308 Labour 38% 261
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Jun 3, 2017 13:47
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ThomasPaine posted:poo poo if those numbers were accurate corbs would be pm SNP on 47, making it a dead heat, so it would all rest on the shoulders of Tim loving Farron. I wonder what Corbyn's policy on turning frogs gay is.
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Jun 3, 2017 13:53
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Raeg posted:Maybe I'm still in shock from Trump but at this point, I don't even know if favourability as thing matters that much any more. Trump was viewed more unfavourably yes, but Clinton also had negative favourability ratings too and while Trump divided opinion between adulation and hatred, Clinton mainly ranged for burning hatred to apathetic but a better choice than the alternative in the opinions of most Americans. I guess that can kinda apply to this election too. I honestly am starting to believe that Corbyn might actually end up Prime Minister.
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Jun 3, 2017 14:28
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Jose posted:clinton campaigned on the basis that you shouldn't vote for trump and never gave the electorate a reason to vote for her and the tories are doing the same lol people gave her poo poo for not campaigning in the mid west but Big Tess went one step further and didn't campaign anywhere lmao
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Jun 3, 2017 14:34
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Mr. Flunchy posted:If there was a hypothetical Labour/SNP coalition, is it to be taken for granted that the SNP would demand a guaranteed Indyref 2? I don't know, polls have yes losing badly even with the prospect of a Tory Brexit dystopia looming. Surely they'd realise Corbyn's ideals align with a lot of independence leaning courts and could switch them over to no and thrice in a generation vote is an even harder sell to a British government than twice in a generation.
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Jun 3, 2017 14:45
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I'm just excited for the return of people analysing politics like it's football. "It's as if Spurs and Man City put their points together and declared themselves the Premier League champions".
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Jun 3, 2017 15:02
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The absolute dream scenario, of course, being a Lab/SNP coalition/working agreement with Labour doing to the SNP what the Tories did to the Lib Dems.
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Jun 3, 2017 15:19
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forkboy84 posted:Unlikely scenario that, because it doesn't address the abysmal uselessness of Scottish Labour. Which is a disaster so big that even Jeremy Corbyn can't fix it. Hell, ronya's Lord & Saviour Tony Blair couldn't invigorate that complacent mess. that's what makes it an "absolute dream" scenario. I guess it would rely on Corbyn being a good enough Prime Minister to encourage more intelligent and competent Scottish people involved in the party but I still have doubts about his ability as a leader even as my doubts about his capability of winning the election. Gyro Zeppeli posted:But there's a fairly big overlap between policies SNP voters and Labour (not SLab) voters would agree on. It's barely even comparable to the Lib Dem/Tory coalition, where they basically had no policies in common. this, on the other hand, makes it more or less likely. Yeah, a lot of the more left wing SNP voters would probably agree with most of Corbyn's supporters on policy decisions. Corbyn-led Labour is closer to both sets of supporters in actual ideology and not just in rhetoric.
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Jun 3, 2017 15:42
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Namtab posted:Why would the guy admit that? one of my parent's neighbours still had a BNP poster prominently displayed in his window last time I went back (2015).
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Jun 3, 2017 16:07
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GaussianCopula posted:How did it feel when pollsters were utterly humiliated in 2015 or 2016? they weren't in 2016. They called Brexit fairly accurately and people just ignored what the polls were saying. There was a lot of "things always slide back to the status quo" dispatch_async posted:https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/871049102473220102 ComRes haven't published their turnout predictions like YouGov have but they're basing it on historical data, so they're probably estimating a lower young voter turn out than we might actually get if you're looking for a silver lining. They're also getting a massive change from their raw data because they're allocating don't knows to whichever party's leader the respondent said would make the best Prime Minister which would have got them the correct result in 2015 apparently if you're looking for a reason to not get your hopes up and follow the ComRes poll. I do think the difference between the perception of Cameron and Miliband's competence was probably wider than that of Corbyn and May though.
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Jun 3, 2017 18:24
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Aurubin posted:Who did the Guardian endorse last time, the Lib Dems? Labour This discrepancy among the polls is interesting, it's looking more and more like ComRes are the outlier and not YouGov, so either they'll look really stupid or their methodology will probably become the new gold standard for calling British elections.
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Jun 3, 2017 21:12
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Corbyn just posted that Labour are suspending campaigning until this evening after consulting with the other parties.
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Jun 4, 2017 09:01
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https://twitter.com/sam_kriss/status/870999588806766592 Related: does anyone have links to the three fanfics written about Corbyn becoming Prime Minister back during the original leadership election? There was a Daily Mail one where the country becomes Venezuela and Trump sends in peacekeeping troops, a loving hilarious Guardian one where Corbyn becomes a milquetoast liberal and fires McDonnell to make Chuka Umunna chancellor and everyone loves him and then a parody one where the Labour right form a resistance to Corbyn who has switched the national anthem to a dubstep version of The Internationale and everything catches fire.
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Jun 4, 2017 12:07
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ShaneMacGowansTeeth posted:they're not the only ones the difference being that UKIP are saying they're still campaigning and tbh have a good reason to do so. May has said she's suspending campaigning but is announcing policy proposals directly related to the incident that caused the suspension of campaigning. UKIP are being honest and open with what they're doing, Tories aren't.
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Jun 4, 2017 14:43
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TheRat posted:Well that's an interesting strategy lmao: would red jezza have nuked london bridge to stop this attack?
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Jun 4, 2017 19:43
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| # ¿ May 16, 2024 14:12 |
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Jose posted:so calling out saudi arabia is going mainstream Saudi Arabia themselves are calling out Qatar and banned them from joining in their bombing of Yemen.
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Jun 5, 2017 08:34
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