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From the VERY little attention I've paid (solely to Jokers) it sounds like both Josh and Paul are planning to take each other. I get that from Paul's perspective but not from Josh's. I would think his only real chance of winning is to (a) take credit for taking out Paul, (b) play up his loyalty to Christmas all game, and (c) take advantage of people thinking Christmas got carried because of her leg. If he cuts Christmas and takes Paul its going to just get interpreted by the Jury as Paul controlling him, IMO. But what do I know? Also it sounds like Christmas knows she's toast and is more or less at peace with it. The impression I get is she's just kind of demoralized by not being able to win her way into the final comp and she feels like if she gets taken to the finals then she's just the one legged girl who was carried along. She seems like she rather just lose than be "carried" in such a way. Which fits her personality but seems like a strategic mistake since I'd think she could talk Josh into taking her and have a 50/50 shot at winning.
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Sep 19, 2017 16:23
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| # ? May 5, 2024 12:14 |
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Paul has been talking to Josh a lot about how Christmas beats either of them and Paul believes it. Josh and Christmas have basically the same story to the end, except Christmas was better with people socially while Josh went around banging pots and pans and generally being disrespectful and disrespected. She can talk about overcoming a broken foot and she's well-spoken. Nobody in the jury knows that Josh was somewhat wise to Paul playing all sides of the house or that Christmas shut him down any time he raised any questions. Cutting Paul at the end might be a feather in his cap but is it enough to overcome all that? I figure he loses either way of course. If he takes Paul, maybe he feels he has the off-chance everyone is really pissed at Paul for betraying them, lying to them on their way out the house (which Josh knows he's been exposing in goodbye messages), and so on.
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Sep 19, 2017 16:44
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It would be interesting if he realized he's in Ken's position from Survivor, where he did OK and made it to the end but had no chance of beating anyone at that point. You'd think he'd cut Paul to be able to give Christmas a chance at some money no matter what if he thinks he has no shot at winning either way.
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Sep 19, 2017 16:53
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If you've already lost, then yeah you might wish you could go back and give the money to the other player, but until the game is over you still kinda gotta take the 5% chance over the 4% chance (or insert whatever numbers) to maximize your shot at winning.
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Sep 19, 2017 16:57
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Taking Christmas definitely seems a lot more unpredictable in terms of where the Jury might lean. I sort of wonder how this would be shaking out if Christmas had just told Josh "sure yeah I'd take you to F2" when he was trying to make that commitment to her. Edit: Also Josh doesn't really know about Paul's goodbye messages.
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Sep 19, 2017 17:00
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I'm most excited about this season ending and Raven seeing how the world received her. I'm a bad person. But not as bad as Raven.
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Sep 19, 2017 17:01
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I don't think Josh would beat Christmas (although I'm not confident enough to put money on that) but I do think its a better case for the reasons I stated. I just don't see what Josh argues if he's sitting next to Paul. He's been vocal about Christmas saving his game all season and how fiercely loyal he was, but he cuts her at the end? If he tries to argue that he did the fights and pots and pans for strategy Paul will say "yeah, my strategy." Josh is aware enough of Paul's game that he should be aware of how it will be perceived from the jury's perspective. He has to find a way to sell that his game is separate from Paul's. He seemed to know that at F5 when he wanted to take Paul out. I mean, yeah, I guess he's just buying into Paul's claims that the jury will be bitter at him and maybe that will be true. But Christmas seems like the better gamble since they're on somewhat equal ground. I guess i just don't get Josh being woke enough to Paul to know he was playing everyone and setting up him and Christmas to take the blood but then to think he stands a better chance against Paul than Christmas.
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Sep 19, 2017 17:04
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Josh winning HOH and choosing Paul would be the worst thing so it will probably happen. The second worse thing is Paul winning final HOH which is also super likely anyway. But the worst thing of all is going to be the Paul hate train insisting they were right all along when Paul wins the money.
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Sep 19, 2017 17:50
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I'm personally already zoned out. My feeds are cancelled, my bookmarks to BB sites have been moved off my home bar and to their embarrassed folder deeper, and I'll pay attention to this thread to see when the Celebrity/OTT stuff gets announced and make the final decision that I'm probably not watching. Then I'll forget all about BB as baseball playoffs, football, hockey, basketball, new shows, holidays, and everything else gets under way and won't think about it again until next summer when I lie to myself and say "maybe this year I skip it?" So Paul's gonna win, fans are going to be the worst, and loving Cody is going to win AFP. I've made peace with it and am half way to already moving on. Which, honestly, is always my schedule. This one's just a little more bitter than... you know what? Its not really that much worse than BB15 or BB18. BB endings suck.
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Sep 19, 2017 17:56
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I mean, I don't think Christmas is bowing out (as opposed to trying to pull some kind of reverse psychology trick). And I don't think Josh would take Paul to F2. Those are two things that are too ridiculous on their face to believe, no matter what else has happened this summer. Josh is a fan of the show, he knows exactly how Steve won. If it's true it makes them worse than Raven, Alex, Kevin etc., right? Like you definitely lose your right to go back and laugh at Raven's "mastermind" jury segment
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Sep 19, 2017 18:24
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I'm not watching so I'm just talking out of my rear end, but it seems entirely within Christmas' character to just being a little disgusted at herself for failing to compete and too prideful to let herself be "carried." She's been stressing about that all season and constantly was trying to prove to her allies that she can pull her own weight and was of genuine value to them as more than just a number. She basically whiffed on a bunch of seemingly winnable comps there at the end so it seems like a potentially big hit to her ego that she's been coddling all season with the broken foot. I wish she would put her pride aside and fight to the end, but I don't think it makes her worse than Raven's nonsense or even Alex, no. Or like, Cody, Mark, Elena, or so many of the really, really bad players this season. Josh, like I said, I have no idea what he's thinking and it confuses me quite a bit. But again, I wouldn't call one bad decision (even one as crucial as F3) bad enough to counter all the poo poo the other bad players did this season. These have been some really bad players.
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Sep 19, 2017 18:37
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It's virtually a guarantee that Christmas is the returning vet next season, right? She's likeable and will be back to fully physically capable, I can't see them not bringing her back.
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Sep 19, 2017 19:29
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I think it would have been a lock if she had left the game or been eliminated early. But yeah, she's definitely a top contender for the next returnee. I'm sure they'd love to sell her as the comp beast she wanted to be. This season's interesting as for as bad as fan reviews have been Christmas, Josh, Alex, and Jason all seem like returnee candidates. And given the edit they got and fanbase that built around them I wouldn't be shocked at Cody and Jess if the two of them can manage to make it work for a year or more.
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Sep 19, 2017 19:34
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Faustian Bargain posted:It's virtually a guarantee that Christmas is the returning vet next season, right? She's likeable and will be back to fully physically capable, I can't see them not bringing her back. How would she be more memorable to TV-watchers than *deep breath* Kevin Cody Alex Raven Josh Jess Jason
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Sep 19, 2017 19:34
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I don't think that's a guarantee. She got to play the full season this year and I don't think she's a massive fan favorite. Max posted:Taking Christmas definitely seems a lot more unpredictable in terms of where the Jury might lean. I sort of wonder how this would be shaking out if Christmas had just told Josh "sure yeah I'd take you to F2" when he was trying to make that commitment to her. Josh might still have a better chance against Christmas, idk but I'm just reporting that Paul and Josh have been talking about how Christmas would beat them both.
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Sep 19, 2017 19:36
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Paul's been pushing the "I can't win, I have no chance" thing all season to everyone. I mean, he's not entirely wrong that Christmas has done better social work with the Jury in general but I doubt he really believes she could beat him or else she wouldn't be sitting there instead of Kevin or Raven. I'm just sort of surprised if Josh is buying it since he's spent most of the season having a good read on things and mostly seeing through Paul's poo poo. But it does sort of take advantage of Josh's own fears that Christmas would beat him and her refusing to make that F2 with him last week might have really dealt a blow to his sense of loyalty towards her. Fast Luck posted:I don't think that's a guarantee. She got to play the full season this year and I don't think she's a massive fan favorite. Definitely not a guarantee, but it makes sense on paper as a candidate. I think Alex might be more likely since she's the sort of player BB really likes and Josh probably left the biggest impression of the season after Paul and Jody. But I think Christmas got a good enough edit that there's still that "what if she had two good legs?" thing in the wind. I mean, plus we have no idea if there will even be returnees next season or what format the cast will take since it always changes. We know we'll get returnees eventually but if its 2 years or something everyone might have forgotten about Christmas. But I think she's in the pool. STAC Goat fucked around with this message at 19:43 on Sep 19, 2017 |
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Sep 19, 2017 19:39
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Apparently Josh confirmed to the cams he's taking Paul F2 because Paul "laid low" and let Josh lead the charge...
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Sep 20, 2017 04:27
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You know, I quit TAR and Survivor a few years ago, and I think I am at the end of my rope for this show too now.
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Sep 20, 2017 06:30
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Josh winning would be the appropriate ending to this ridiculous bullshit season.
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Sep 20, 2017 06:45
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the truth posted:Josh winning would be the appropriate ending to this ridiculous bullshit season. I'd actually be ok with him winning just because Paul deserves it much less, imo. Paul benefited tremendously from some of the worst twists AND worst casting in BB history, and if he were a more humble person I wouldn't care and would probably cheer for him. But he, his fans, AND his haters are going to walk away from a Paul win thinking he was some dominant force to be reckoned with.
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Sep 20, 2017 06:48
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Honestly, I'm cool with this final 3. I don't like Paul at all, but he played a decent game. Obviously I'd rather a Christmas or Josh win and I'll be annoyed if Paul pulls it out, but they're a pretty deserving final 3. It's really impressive that Josh went this far after being an easy week 2 target. A lot of that is owed to Jody painting a cosmic target on themselves, but he stayed visible and antagonistic and still avoided an eviction. A Josh win would be dope.
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Sep 20, 2017 07:35
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ToastyPotato posted:You know, I quit TAR and Survivor a few years ago, and I think I am at the end of my rope for this show too now. Depending on when you quit survivor, they've been getting better. TAR did grow monotonous.
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Sep 20, 2017 07:42
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STAC Goat posted:she wouldn't be sitting there instead of Kevin or Raven.
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Sep 20, 2017 15:12
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It's been interesting how the producers clearly don't buy into Raven's bullshit and take any opportunity to dunk on her.
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Sep 20, 2017 15:20
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Faustian Bargain posted:How funny would the finale be if it were Paul/Raven and Raven stands up and declares that she and Paul had an alliance and ran the game the whole season and everyone laughed at her live instead of the jury house. I loved that portion of the jury house segment... Holy crap she was delusional. Marks reaction was fantastic.
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Sep 20, 2017 15:20
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Paul got friendship bracelets, three weeks of immunity, and benefited from having played ten of the comps last year already. His dominance of the game was engineered by production, and expected. Josh deserves the win. He played strategically all game, including cementing house sentiment against Cody and Marlena using pots and pans. He was arguably the most entertaining character this season. He's the only new star to emerge this season. He let himself be "used" by Paul for a few weeks, but appeared aware that was happening, and sucked up his pride about it, and told the cameras that he was playing dumb. He fake-cried multiple times to get what he wanted. He made up with people (Mark), or attempted (Jessica) when it suited his game. And he didn't get caught for double dealing until things got pretty far down the line (Jason). I think him taking Paul to the final two is his last brilliant move. Taking Christmas would have been sentimental, but risked losing to random houseguest sentiment. I think his case against Paul is more solid.. but we'll see how he structures his argument. This season would have absolutely sucked without him. I really hope Josh wins.
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Sep 20, 2017 15:54
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Also I think Josh's goodbye explainer messages have been great. They're always juxtapose with Paul's lying goodbye messages so it seems like it's a great move to cement jury votes for him and against Paul. I mean I know he doesn't have a say in what Paul's messages are but it worked out beautifully.
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Sep 20, 2017 16:16
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Josh isn't a good player at all imv.
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Sep 20, 2017 18:13
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It could be too early to go after Paul
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Sep 20, 2017 18:18
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Disagree. He's not a GREAT player and he has flaws but he has strengths. He was able to play Jody and others completely in Week 1 and 4, the merits of which might be debatable but which showed a real ability to manipulate and play people. The pots and pans stuff might have hurt him in the end but he repeatedly said he thought it was necessary to cement his place in the house and if we go back to Week 4 we can remember that Matt and others were very shaky on whether it was worth blindsiding people to keep Josh and it was the pots and pans that really sold them and began Josh's turn around in the house. After that week people like Alex and Maven regularly talked about how Josh "deserved" to be there and had "earned" his spot and was "fighting." Josh had the right instincts in Week 1 when everyone was focused on "house sides" and he made the choice to ignore them and risk betraying Alex to stay loyal to the people who he trusted the most. That paid off quickly as the house divide feel apart within weeks (as it almost always did), he ended up mending things with Alex, and he's in F3 with the 2 people he picked to stand with in Week 1. And as we've discussed Josh has been the person most clued into Paul and has repeatedly tried to make moves against him. Most recently when he was thinking of backdooring Paul at F5, when he fought back against Paul's plans to split the vote and throw him and Christmas under the bus at F8, and way back to pre-jury when he wanted to get out Elena instead of Jess to weaken Paul. None of it worked out because Paul had too much control/comfort and Christmas never got fully on board, but Josh was clearly the most keyed in about what Paul was doing and the need to do something about it. Toss in that he won a few comps including a crucial HOH when the house was still threatening to flip back to Jody's control and then the DE POV where Alex he or Christmas were very much in danger. Josh's flaws are obvious and we've all spoken about them at length, so I'm not suggesting he's some kind of mastermind or anything. But I'd make a real case that Josh is one of the few players who showed ANYTHING this season along with Paul, Christmas, and Alex. And I'd arguably put him above Christmas and Alex since they both hosed up and fell for Paul's crap at the end. Then again Josh might be doing that at F3 too. But at least he tried at F5 so I'll give him the nod. STAC Goat fucked around with this message at 18:37 on Sep 20, 2017 |
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Sep 20, 2017 18:35
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I agree that Josh at least thinks about the game from the perspective of the game. He asks himself if things are good moves, he considers things like Paul creating plans that are much better for him than for Josh and Christmas. But he never did anything about it, compared Paul to Dan and Derrick and still is going to bring him to F2, his social game is erratic and emotionally he's sort of a mess. Far from the worst player in this season, that's just not high praise with this particular cast. He grew up a little bit in the house but he needs to continue to grow up if he wants to be an above average player in the future.
Fast Luck fucked around with this message at 19:33 on Sep 20, 2017 |
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Sep 20, 2017 19:08
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He tried to make moves against Paul, first with Elena, then with the Jason eviction plan, and then the F5 backdoor attempt. It just never worked out for him partly because of Paul's counter push but partly because of circumstances or the actions of third party players. I certainly don't think he's anywhere near as good as Dan or Derrick. I don't think Paul is on their level either, although he's certainly closer. Dan and Derrick are Tier 1, Paul might be Tier 2, Josh is Tier 3 or 4. He's not a great player, not a player we'll talk about for years in the future even if he loses like a Vanessa, but I think he was an above average player and would probably make a top 20 of the last 5 years or something. Which may sound like faint praise but its the field. Edit: I think the quibble here is "Josh isn't a good player at all." The "at all" being the key thing. I think Josh is a flawed player with some positive skills. I think most "good" BB players fall into that category. But to say he's not "at all" seems harsh, and begs the question of what the field of "good players" are? Like in recent seasons I'd probably do something like: Tier 1: Derrick, Dan Tier 2: Paul, Vanessa Tier 3: Steve, Ian, Andy Tier 4: Josh, James, Nicole, Liz, Frank, Natalie, Austin, Josh, Christmas, Alex, Shelli, BB16 Cody, Frank, Amanda, Helen, Elise And Andy, Steve, and Ian are basically on their own tier because they won but I think they're pretty comparable with most of Tier 4 in having clear skills and clear flaws and needing the right circumstances to advance/win. But they did get them adn won so they get a bump. STAC Goat fucked around with this message at 21:13 on Sep 20, 2017 |
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Sep 20, 2017 21:04
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Results-oriented, he made it far, but most people saw him as a goat, Paul especially, which is part of what carried him along. Remember the first few weeks of the game too, he was one of the biggest messes there's ever been. Outbursts, crying fits, a total self-made pariah. Most seasons he'd have been an easy early boot and he only got saved this time because of Megan's self-eviction and Cody's subsequent dynamiting of the entire house. Like I would not only not compare Josh with Vanessa if he loses, but from that season I'd also put him below Austin, Liz, Steve, Shelli, Johnny Mac, probably Trainwreck Beck. I feel like when a player makes it far people start writing this script about how their game justifies that placement but plenty of times I think that's horseshit including in this case. He's a unique character and at least he tries, though. And since he made it far he'll have more people thinking he's good than people discounting him probably, although maybe that depends on the jury outcome.
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Sep 20, 2017 21:23
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Johnny Mac and Becky? Really? I don't hate either but I'm hard pressed to think of any good moves either made (or tried to make), but I could name off a few bad ones for either. Its definitely true that Josh was a trainwreck early and if something had broken different he could have been an early boot and just been a joke we remember like Devin. Its also true that a lot of pre-jury boots probably could have build up better resumes and reviews if they had the time in the game (although the recent performances of Day and Jason really tempt me to argue otherwise). But that's the way the game goes. Luck always factors in and Josh got a little lucky early on which allowed him to clean up some of his mistakes, improve his game a bit, and put together a solid little resume. Not one for the books or anything, but enough to put him over most of his cast and IMO above the fray in recent history. Which you could probably argue is a mark against recent seasons, but it is what it is. Players/teams who go deep will ALWAYS have more opportunities to make an impression and build up a resume in any game. But that doesn't mean we're praising Kevin for making F5 or talking about the impressive game of Victoria. Some people are goats and some people are players. HGs may have at times seen Josh as a goat but he strategized, made moves, won comps, and was a key factor in the season. STAC Goat fucked around with this message at 21:53 on Sep 20, 2017 |
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Sep 20, 2017 21:50
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BB17 was unique because there was very little of the house voting or the house fatigue that usually eats people's games up, but Johnny Mac was a total Kevin, between answering everything cryptically, freaking people out and having bizarre loyalties (Clay/Shelli) that really weren't reciprocal at all. I'd say Frankie, Amanda, Paulie Calafiore and Nicole were all clearly better at BB than Josh; I'd say someone like Mark suddenly looks okay on a BB17 or a BB15 with more flexible players, but again it's splitting hairs and I agree with the general point: Josh benefited from circumstances (like everyone who goes far) but he wasn't incompetent in there. Closer to Liz than like Kevin, and Liz did fine. I never got it clear how much the "Cody hypothesis" cycled through the house, and maybe that's something the finale will clear up: when he was campaigning to Alex early on, he told her Paul was making a fool out of Josh so he could drag him to F2 as a goat. It was a good guess with Cody's information, and I don't think it was 100% wrong, but Paul probably wasn't dead-set on that. Alex brought it up to Paul a bunch during her stages of grief, but I don't know if it did the rounds with Josh and Christmas. If Josh knows that that's something Cody's selling and Alex is buying, even if he's offended by it and he thinks it's bullshit, and he still wants to go to the end with Paul, that would be pretty hard to understand. Fat Lowtax fucked around with this message at 23:10 on Sep 20, 2017 |
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Sep 20, 2017 21:51
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Am I forgetting something or did we basically have an entire season without someone lobbying hard while on the block. Was there a single flip really?
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Sep 20, 2017 22:07
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I don't know if Josh KNOWS Alex was pushing that and thinking that way... but I think he should be worried about it. He knows that's how Cody, Mark, and Elena were thinking and that's a hell of a large voting block in the Jury. Now I don't know if Josh had the insight to see why Alex connected with Cody early on or how she basically thinks just like him but with the advantage of basic social skills. But Josh not working that out over the course of 3 months and considering it as a key Jury issue qualifies as a potentially game losing mistake, IMO. Fat Lowtax posted:BB17 was unique because there was very little of the house voting or the house fatigue that usually eats people's games up, but Johnny Mac was a total Kevin, between answering everything cryptically, freaking people out and having bizarre loyalties (Clay/Shelli) that really weren't reciprocal at all. I'd say Frankie, Amanda, Paulie Calafiore and Nicole were all clearly better at BB than Josh; I'd say someone like Mark suddenly looks okay on a BB17 or a BB15 with more flexible players, but again it's splitting hairs and I agree with the general point: Josh benefited from circumstances (like everyone who goes far) but he wasn't incompetent in there. Closer to Liz than like Kevin, and Liz did fine. But like you said, we're splitting hairs and its why I like the tier formatting since its really very arbitrary and subjective to rank players like this across different seasons with all the different twists and game circumstances and cast dynamics.
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Sep 20, 2017 22:09
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Eltoasto posted:Am I forgetting something or did we basically have an entire season without someone lobbying hard while on the block. Was there a single flip really? For the most part, everyone on the block either made their own bed and knew exactly what was up or was completely blindsided.
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Sep 20, 2017 22:17
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Christmas in Week 1 is the obvious answer but she's definitely an anomoly. There's a question of whether Josh/... uhh... that little guy... I completely forgot his name. But Josh was SUPPOSED to be the target and that flipped. But its a weird case since that flipped off cameras before POV and they just managed to drag it out for the blindside. I'd say Mark fought. More in the weeks leading up and his game was just kind of a mess by the time he was on the block. But he still campaigned and tried to make a deal with people. So he tried. I don't think you can really blame Matt for not campaigning against Raven, and he was mad at least. Raven and Elena were taken out at DE so even though I question if they would have fought they never had the chance. I can SORT of justify Alex giving up and Jason being blindsided... although not really. Kevin is Kevin. Jess and Cody basically quit the game in Week 1. Christmas is the one that disappoints me but having not watched I find myself ill equipped to fairly critique.
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Sep 20, 2017 22:21
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This was a perfect season to this lovely season. Glad Josh got the money. Paul played one of the best games of big brother in terms of having 20 alliances and not being in danger, but man he didnt know when to stop lying and offer some honesty to the guys out the door.
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Sep 21, 2017 04:45
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