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Has Jessica given any indication who she would target if she pulls this out?
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Jul 14, 2017 03:56
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Really the take-home point right now is STAC Goat was right a few weeks ago and Cody returning with Jessica winning the Hex was the 1-2 punch the entire middlegame of the season.
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Jul 28, 2017 16:44
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Don't forget that in addition to not knowing what the power is, Paul and the other don't even know how long it lasts. Sure, you could say it's dangerous to go directly after Jody when they have a mysterious power they'll be forced to use, but if this mysterious power expires at the end of this week then it's even more dangerous for Paul to show his hand by nominating Marlena and the power gets used anyway. Alternatively, if the power lasts the entire season, they need to flush it at some point so it's better for Paul to trigger whatever it is now while he'll probably have immunity for the week due to HoH. I complained about this a lot in the Survivor thread last season, but mysterious powers with rules that are only known to the power holder really suck the strategy out of these games and only encourage boring, conservative gameplay.
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Jul 28, 2017 17:56
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The RHAP crew has some pretty bad opinions this season. The big one is Rob's insistence that as bad as Paul's dominance is, the show would be even worse without him because what would the show even be about? As if no other players would try to step into the giant gaping power vacuum that would exist without Paul, and as if it wouldn't be super fun seeing people like Alex and Josh jockey to be the new power player. They also act like the house's insistence to go after Jody with laser-focus for 2 months was a bad move on everyone's part. Rob is always so critical of Survivor players making big moves for the sake of making big moves, but he wants someone to backstab the entire house to save the annoying, unpredictable comp beasts? They're blaming the show being boring on the cast being stupid, when really it was the bad twists drawing out Jody's eviction over 2 months instead of 2 weeks (i.e. exactly what STAC Goat predicted in this thread when Cody came back and Jessica got the Hex).
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Aug 21, 2017 23:00
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The latest crazy hyperbole out of the fanbase and RHAP is that Paul's odds of winning are now larger than the entire field's. Even if he gets to Final 3 (obviously not guaranteed) he probably needs to win the Final 3 HoH since it's hard to imagine anyone taking him to the Final 2 (maybe Alex?), and since the last part of the Final 3 HoH is essentially a coin flip it's hard to figure out how his odds of winning the entire game are more than 50%.
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Aug 21, 2017 23:12
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It's tough to say how in control Paul ultimately is because Paul/Josh/Christmas/Alex/Jason have won basically every HoH all season, and their alliance is pretty mutually beneficial (or was mutually beneficial until the last week or so where Alex/Jason are slightly too slow to figure out that they've fallen in the pecking order). Would Kevin or Maven or Ramses or Marlena have bowed to Paul's will if they won HoH? Maybe, but add that to the list of STAC Goat's "What If"s this season.
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Aug 28, 2017 04:31
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ToastyPotato posted:The big choice is target Paul and leave Alex to very likely win next HOH, or target Alex and leave Paul to very likely win the next HOH. Either way, Christmas or Josh HAVE to win final 4 veto not matter who wins HOH. Not necessarily, because if Paul has the veto at Final 4 he seems to be leaning towards taking out Kevin and going to the Final 3 with Josh and Christmas. I'm actually undecided if it really makes sense for Josh to go after Paul here. Leaving Paul in he can almost certainly get to a Final 3 of Christmas/Josh/Paul, and then he just needs to win the last HoH to get Paul out and he wins the game. If we assume the HoH will essentially be a coin-toss between Paul and Josh (since Christmas probably can't compete in Part 1 or 2), then Josh has maybe a ~50% chance of winning the game here (assuming he takes and beats Christmas). On the other hand, taking out Paul makes Final 4 and 3 much more chaotic since Alex will be a bit of a wildcard depending on how she handles Paul's eviction. There is a much higher risk of him or Christmas leaving at 4, and in a Final 3 of Kevin/Alex/Josh it's not quite clear who would be favored to win which parts and who would take who to the Final 2. I'm sure there are some paths that open up here where Josh can win the game without winning Final 3 HoH so in some sense it's better than the previous option, but it's tricky to actually estimate how likely those paths are.
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Sep 8, 2017 15:50
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ToastyPotato posted:I do not have much faith that Paul, if faced with the choice of Kevin or Josh or even Alex, will choose to evict Kevin. Paul is very much thinking about winning comps at this point, so I think Christmas is mostly safe, but I don't feel the same for Josh. Paul might be saying he wants to remain true to his group, but I dunno if he holds to that, as he has a habit of looking for any excuse to cut ties with people. If Josh manage to bounce Alex this week and Paul isn't on board, that would be all the excuse Paul needs to change his plan. Yeah but by the time Paul would be voting at Final 4 the only comp left will be the Final 3 HoH and everyone is generally working under the assumptions that (1) Christmas will be a non-factor in Parts 1 and 2 because they are usually physical, (2) Part 3 is a crap shoot. So for Paul, facing off against Kevin in Part 3 of the Final 3 HoH is no different then facing off against Josh, regardless of how much better Josh would be than Kevin in 90% of comps. He gains almost nothing by voting out Josh over Kevin at 4, but risks burning the jury (not just Josh and Christmas, but every juror that Paul got riled up to hate Kevin for no reason and is mad that Kevin's still around).
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Sep 9, 2017 02:49
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I know this threads is for spoilers, but I'll tag this just in case since it's not from the feeds. There's some credible buzz online about how jury votes might go from the same person that first leaked Paul's return a week or so before the premiere (an insider tipping off Hamsterwatch both times): Supposedly the jury segment was *not* misleading as people suspected and, in fact, everyone except Matt and Raven are very anti-Paul and as of now Matt/Raven would be the only votes for Paul to win. Even if Kevin and the last juror vote Paul, that means he would still lose 5-4. Obviously it would only take one of those 5 to flip and give Paul the win, but at the very least it sounds like Paul has an uphill battle ahead of him on finale night (if he even gets to the Final 2). I wonder how the season will be remembered if Josh beats Paul in the Final 2, an outcome I don't think any of us thought was possible all season especially during that crazy first week.
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Sep 17, 2017 19:32
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| # ¿ May 6, 2024 11:57 |
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I still don't really get how the show is going to work, because if they are playing for charity then it's going to be really awkward seeing people get lied to and screwed over when they're playing for children with cancer or whatever. I assumed they were going to change the format of the show, but I think they've already said in interviews that it's going to be the same gameplay stucture as the main show so  .The nature of the show is also going to make it hard to advertise any big name celebrities beforehand, since if the cast is well-known before they enter the house they'll just form a big boring pre-game alliance which could ruin the show.
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Dec 4, 2017 05:28
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