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Leperflesh
May 17, 2007

Yes indeed.

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Leperflesh
May 17, 2007

Wait so is it a mock draft, e.g. after the draft nothing happens, or are we instead doing a regular redraft league, basically?

e. Also finally I'm team number 6 and get to use this theme I've been saving up for years

Leperflesh
May 17, 2007

Drunk Nerds posted:

Wait was best ball league mock?

No, it'll play out through the year, there's just nothing to do in best ball but watch the results and trash talk. But beer said


Beer4TheBeerGod posted:

I would like to change the draft so that this is a traditional mock, not a best ball league.

So I'm just checking, because I don't really care about mock drafting in June but if we're just doing a fullblown redraft league with trades and free agents and setting lineups and so on that's another thing entirely.

Leperflesh
May 17, 2007

Same. If this is actually a mock draft than whatever but if it's an actual redraft league, then I'll bow out in favor of one of the goons who didn't get in.

And if it's a mock draft then hey would anyone like to do a best ball league as well? Because I could get one of those going too.

Leperflesh
May 17, 2007

OK well I'm OK with doing a mock draft, but I'd also like to do another best ball so if it's a mock draft I'll start a best ball draft later tonight.

14 spots makes more sense for a non-best-ball league.

Leperflesh
May 17, 2007

As promised, I will run Slow Draft III: https://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=3825310

Leperflesh
May 17, 2007

I'm drafting three D/STs in the first three rounds and you can't stop me

Leperflesh
May 17, 2007

jabro posted:

So we are mocking a friend 8 team league?

I'm gonna win by stealing all the D/STs. By the time you guys figure it out there'll be just garbage left. I can't lose!


You'll have to trade me Zeke Elliot for the Ravens D/ST and I'll be laughing all the way to the playoffs

Leperflesh
May 17, 2007

Delighted to get Mike Evans at ninth. :)

Leperflesh
May 17, 2007

olawale is a bargain in the 66th round IMO. Good pick.

Leperflesh
May 17, 2007

Grabbed Gronk. It's only a mock so we can all pretend he'll get 16 healthy games, right?

Leperflesh
May 17, 2007

Yeah and I passed on Jordy to take Gronk, so :shrug:

Leperflesh
May 17, 2007

I guess I'm OK with Hyde in the third round. Probably the niners will be a bit better this year, and he'll be healthy, and if both of those things happen he should be OK. :shrug:

Leperflesh
May 17, 2007

I'm taking Ty Montgomery in the fourth. Having gone with WR and TE as my 1-2, and given the risks with Hyde, I felt I had to take another RB this round. I also wanted to avoid my RB2 having the same bye week as my RB1. And, I wanted a decently high chance that the guy I took would be the lead back. Ty Montgomery apparently needs to learn to block before he'll be firmly seated as a three-down back, but I think there's a decent chance he does that, and even if not, his efficiency is just way high and I think green bay will make heavy use of him with Lacy gone.

I also considered Lynch (very risky but with huge upside), CJ Anderson (Denver swears they're now a committee), and Doug Martin (supposedly a reach at this spot, and week 11 bye) before deciding Ty is my guy. The chance he might qualify as a WR is an added bonus.

Leperflesh
May 17, 2007

I took Edelman. He is still listed as the #1 WR on the New England Patriots. Am I missing something? I toyed with a couple other WR1s still on the list but I decided this was just too much value for the mid fifth round.

Leperflesh
May 17, 2007

Ben Nevis posted:

I like the pick. Cooks having a higher ADP than Edelman is a bit of an oddity to me.

I think the ADPs are heavily skewed right now by dynasty draft data. A bunch of guys who got traded, plus a bunch of rookies, have higher ADPs than they probably should/will once all the redraft leagues start doing their 2017 drafts.

Leperflesh
May 17, 2007

Edelman had a good year in terms of yardage last year, but only three TDs. For the purposes of this draft, I'm presuming that's a statistical aberration and he'll trend back towards the 7 he had in 2015, but I'm not sure and I assume that's why he's down in the 4th to 5th round despite being WR1 on a world championship team. Mid-fifth I'm OK with a WR getting ~100 receptions for 1100 yards and 4-5 TDs, though. Like, that's a drat good deal?

Leperflesh
May 17, 2007

I can hold my pick if that autodraft was incorrect: it looks like we're on a 12-hour clock?

Leperflesh
May 17, 2007

OK quick question. There's no negative points in the scoring in this league for interceptions. Is that an oversight? Or should I draft on the presumption that INTs don't hurt QBs?

Leperflesh
May 17, 2007

Sataere posted:

Isn't this just a mock anyway?

Yes, but I take these things seriously! should I lower my rating for QBs who throw lots of picks vs. those that don't? Normally I would, and I think e.g. beersheets must assume picks cost something because that's how fantasy draft ratings are usually done, but weirdly we're not in this league so maybe I shouldn't.

OK whatever I'll assume a pick is at least -1 point and maybe -2, and take:
Derek Carr!

Winston is above him in ADP, but Winston throws tons of picks and Carr doesn't. That's my deciding factor. If Russel Wilson had still been on the board I'd have had a tough time picking between them but probably gone with Wilson. I feel this round is when all the QBs in this tier are going to go, so I'm OK with taking a QB in the sixth.

Leperflesh
May 17, 2007

I agree with all of that, but don't see why he'd rate higher than the RB1s still on the board.

Leperflesh
May 17, 2007

...like, for example, Frank Gore.

Leperflesh
May 17, 2007

Oh yeah sorry, I meant lead backs on NFL teams. There's theoretically 32 of them and I'm sure a fair few that won't do better than Coleman, but... yeah, I can't really finish this thought without maybe pointing out players that I'd rather fall to me, so. :shrug:

Leperflesh
May 17, 2007

The thing is, this isn't best ball. When do you start Coleman? Obviously if Freeman is hurt, but otherwise, you're starting him in your RB2 slot and just hoping that this week he has the opportunities, maybe if the Falcons get well ahead and are running down the clock.

Gore/CJ on the other hand you can start in your RB2 slot any week they're not already injured and have a very solid floor to work from. Most of us are drafting our third RB at this point, so this is a guy you're going to slot in on a bye week or if one of your top two guys is hurt, not an every-week starter anyway, so you want someone you can just plug in. I see Bilal Powell just went and he's probably the RB1 on a ground-heavy attack. I guess there's still a chance Forte is RB1 but even then, I'd put Powell and Coleman's opportunities as being quite similar, albeit Coleman is on a much better team.

I'm not down on Coleman exactly, I just don't love his opportunity. There's a ton of teams in the NFL where he'd be great as a featured RB, but a healthy Devonta Freeman finishes top five and I don't think that leaves Coleman enough to want him ahead of guys like Gore, CJ anderson, and Bilal Powell.


e. Gillislee I'm completely not sold on though, despite being a Patriot he's a huge risk because he's unproven as a RB1, plus you know, Belichick loves to dick around with his running backs.

Leperflesh
May 17, 2007

And there's the other two guys I'd take before.coleman, lol.

Leperflesh
May 17, 2007

for my rb3, missing the first few games is fine, my 1 and 2 will not likely lose their jobs or get hurt before then. And lacy at least has the opportunity to keep a starting job... coleman does not.

Enough said tho. If I'm wrong, that won't be unusual, fantasy is mostly bullshit guessing anyway

Leperflesh
May 17, 2007

Sataere posted:

Agreed. And honestly, Martin was someone I was targeting. I just straight up don't like Lacy at his ADP. Would rather have Rawls ten rounds later.

Since I'm starting a fantasy blog in a couple of weeks, I'm not being as cagey with my choices and my decision making this year, despite playing with a lot of you guys. I go against the grain on a lot of things, but if you've been in leagues with me, you know I'm very good at this.

My number one rule is don't be afraid of going against the grain of conventional wisdom. I'd rather be wrong because I made a bad choice then be wrong because I went with a consensus that I'm not behind. It's a hard rule to adhere to though. Last year, group think cost me Hunter Henry in dynasty and it still bothers me.

Oh, man, yeah that. I use beersheets and the last couple years I used them as a crutch to avoid learning about a lot of the guys I was drafting. I definitely wound up with one or two players I shouldn't have, just because I went with the consensus. (And that's no knock on Beersheets, mind you, that's just a tool that aggregates expert rankings, it's not on Beer to second-guess or analyze that stuff. )

This year I'm trying really hard to actually develop theories about every player I draft, and every higher-ADP player I pass over, too. Even if my reasoning winds up being totally wrong, at least it was my reasoning. Otherwise, why play? A computer can take consensus ADP and autodraft a team.

All that said, my strength has always been in working the waiver wire and that's where most of my effort goes regardless.

Leperflesh
May 17, 2007

The adp list is crammed full of QBs and rookies and WR/RB 2s/3s, so maybe I'm reaching, but: blount is in my opinion probably the starter all season and after that RB run we just had, I'm not waiting. At the least, I think he gives me a safe floor when he's healthy which is what I want in my third slot.

Leperflesh
May 17, 2007

The thing is, Sproles is 34. Maybe he'll have Gore-like longevity, but I think the Eagles picking up Blount is a tacit acknowledgement that no, he's not gonna still be able to carry that workload. You might be right about a timeshare... but Blount is a superbowl-winning QB who at 30 is still clearly playing as if he is in his prime.

He can't possibly repeat his 18 TDs from last season, but in the seventh round I'd be delighted with 8.

I don't see Smallwood or Pumphrey as threats: they're future stock for the Eagles, to be developed on special teams etc., not really playable backs at this point.


e. I would certainly have taken Powell before Blount, yeah.

e2. Basically I guess Blount is taking all of Ryan Matthews' work, plus maybe some of Sproles, and that's a lot of work.

Leperflesh fucked around with this message at 18:27 on Jul 8, 2017

Leperflesh
May 17, 2007

Taking my second QB possibly a round early. Of the wideouts at this round or better adp, I mostly wanted d-jax, except I already have evans and do not want to double up on the same team. I think Cousins will at least repeat last year's production as he prepares to earn a record-breakingly huge contract (with the niners) next year.

Leperflesh
May 17, 2007

If this were the first week of September, I'd only draft one QB. But it's July; if you only draft one QB, you could wind up having to grab a free agent before the season even begins.

I actually keep having this issue when making draft picks in a mock draft in July. A bunch of guys are going to get hurt during training camp and that's going to affect everything... so I feel that I would need insurance.

Maybe I'm not mock drafting properly, I dunno. It's OK though, you all play in other leagues and you certainly have at least one league taco who drafts two QBs, right?

Leperflesh
May 17, 2007

I took Jordan Matthews. I realize his situation has changed - with Alshon Jeffery in Philadelphia, his target share may go down. But I think he's actually being undervalued now, maybe by a round. He'll still get production, and I don't think his knee tendonitis is going to be a big deal. I'm happy to grab him in the ninth round.

Leperflesh
May 17, 2007

As a niners fan, I can attest that torrey smith is fast but otherwise is bad at football. And I knew Eagles fans generally dislike Matthews, but his stats suggest he can in fact produce catches, yards, and touchdowns regardless. We'll see, though... that's why he fell this far! I'm late to take WR depth so I wanted a guy that would be guaranteed a baseline level of volume here. I like a veteran WR who has proven what he can do.

Leperflesh
May 17, 2007

I'm somewhat down on Cam Newton and I think his career is due to either continue to gently slide, or more likely completely crater as he gets injured more. He's been continuously sacked at an astonishing rate, and has reached a point where he is always semi-hurt (when he's not really hurt) and geting gun-shy. It's the same thing that happened to two of the other three well-known, recent QBs that share his "type" - highly mobile running threats with big arms behind lovely offensive lines that just can't seem to protect him: RGIII, Colin Kaepernick, and Russel Wilson. I also get the impression he's just not having fun any more. Cam obviously isn't exactly the same as those guys, and maybe Carolina will figure out that A) you can't turn these guys into 100% pocket passers, that's not their thing and B) the only way to take full advantage of them is by providing them with an outstanding offensive line and a highly adaptable intelligent receiving corps who can adjust as soon as the QB starts to scramble. But I'm not counting on it and I'm avoiding him in all drafts this year.

I like the Kenny Britt pick this late in the draft, he's got plenty of upside potential and is a good option to slot in during bye weeks or good matchups, which is just what you want in your WR5.

e. I should acknowledge that last year, the Panther's OL was severely beaten up, and they did address OL needs in the draft. But the news I'm reading is that both Cam and the Panthers coaches want him to stay in the pocket and throw short, quick passes a lot more, and I'm very unconvinced that he will make that transition while also being an elite fantasy QB.

Leperflesh fucked around with this message at 19:12 on Jul 11, 2017

Leperflesh
May 17, 2007

Marvin Jones. The clear #2 in Detroit's passing attack, with 800+ yards as a floor, and potential for a lot more than that if he shapes up. Supposedly he'll be better this year after working with Randy Moss in the offseason? I won't count on it, but he'll be fine to slot in for bye weeks and matchups.

I avoided a couple of other similar cases due to bye weeks; there were several decent WR options at this point I think, and I wouldn't call Jones in the 10th a reach.

Leperflesh
May 17, 2007

Aw, I was hoping to grab Jamaal Charles next round.

Leperflesh
May 17, 2007

Eric Ebron in the 11th round. Under most circumstances I would not take a second TE in redraft. However, I have Gronk, and that requires insurance. Ebron is a suitably late pick to not heavily impact my roster, but suitably early as to still be a viable plug-in if (when) Gronk is concussed etc.

There is some chatter that maybe with Anquan Boldin gone, Ebron gets an increased role, too; I am not putting a lot of credit to that, but I do have Marvin Jones rostered as well, and I'm OK with the idea of slotting them both in on good matchups and then getting a larger slice of Detroit's non-Tate passing game, however that gets divided.

That said, Ebron is also potential trade bait for someone who rostered one busted/hurt TE and doesn't like the waiver situation. He's not spectacular but I think he has a pretty safe floor.

Leperflesh
May 17, 2007

Yeah the fantasy world seems really down on him, on the impression that he was only good in Oakland because of a great OL and if he'd been that good, Oakland would have re-signed him or something.

I don't think he's a world-class RB but he's also not awful, either, and he should be a solid option as like a RB3 on a fantasy team. I seriously considered taking him this round but decided I wanted a decent TE or failing that a decent WR.

I'm sort of surprised as well at how many teams are rostering 5+ RBs. The format is 1QB 2RB 3WR 1TE, 1 FLEX, right? I get taking a fourth RB for some insurance, but a fifth... ehhh...

e. In your case you've got Jamaal Charles and Derrik Henry, so I guess a safe fifth RB makes more sense.

Leperflesh
May 17, 2007

Mohamed Sanu in the 12th round seems pretty great to me. The Falcons are going to continue to be a high-powered passing offense and he has a substantial chunk of it as the WR2 on the team.

I had him ahead of Thielen and Doctson on my autodraft list so I'm delighted to get him after both those guys go. I know Matt Ryan has a lot of targets, but Sanu will be on the field for most offensive snaps and he's a very good wide receiver who pulls second-best or third-best coverage while teams try to cover Julio.

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Leperflesh
May 17, 2007

poo poo, I have to draft a d/st?

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