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alright boys, girls, boygirls and girlboys, let's talk about the second great depression warning: i am an idiot here are our doomsday scenarios to fawn over: quote:One rarely discussed feature of the "student loan industrial complex" is the $200 billion market for student loan asset-backed securities (SLABS). This is a circular business, involving lenders like Sallie Mae and big banks like Wells Fargo and Bank of America. Like mortgages, student loans get pooled and repackaged into new financial products (securities). The lenders then sell the securities to investors. Investors receive the reward of monthly loan payments, plus interest. They can hold the securities themselves, trade them or bet on them. In turn, lenders receive quick cash, including fees and commissions, and push the risk of the underlying loans onto investors. This shift allows lenders to make more, and larger, loans. like the great recession, we can see an enormous amount of betting on consumer debt, this time in the case of student loans. currently, student loans account for 1.3 trillion dollars of debt in the united states, so there's about 200 bil on betting on this amount of money. there's going to be a problem, the same one that caused the great recession, namely: "Widespread failures in financial regulation, including the Federal Reserve’s failure to stem the tide of toxic mortgages" in essence, institutions are lending out billions of dollars that they may not get back. in an effort to seek out additional profit, they basically take larger and larger risks. these larger risks may end up being bundled as "safe" in SLABS when they are anything but. if we repeal dodd-frank, we're literally in the exact same situation. last month the house did repeal dodd-frank. that means if it makes it past the senate, we're probably going to repeat history, lmao. good job everyone. we're pretty much on track to repeat the mortgage crisis, again. subprime mortgages are being lent out again because banks need to see those numbers go up up up! and well, without dodd frank, we might see a double whammy. will we get hit by the same thing twice, or will we get a little bit of a mixup? who knows! oh! but we also have another issue: the tech "bubble" now, we're not in the dot-com era. that was mostly fueled by some really stupid frenzy.the market has been shooting the gently caress up since the end of the obama admin, but there's an issue: a lot of tech companies are struggling to actually turn a profit. there's basically an IPO dump scheme going on: get a bunch of investors, go public, cash out on your stock, and then leave everyone else who bought it going "uhh, how the gently caress is snapchat and twitter going to make money." there's plenty or profitable stuff in tech, but there's a chance investors will begin to grow wary of investing in lovely apps and vr tech that won't sell. there's thousands of failures in every industry, but it's the giant ones that might get worrisome. what happens when twitter still isn't profitable? they might sell to microsoft or google or something, but if they see a gigantic company like that not even turn a profit. if they see snapchat crash and burn in 5 years from not making a dime, the reality might hit us, and all that fancy money might mean that silicon valley crashes and burns. i don't think it's likely, but i think ad prices are overvalued due to clickfarming and bots. i think that people still think that dumping 10 million into the uber of vaping is going to somehow make them 50 million. once they stop thinking that, the money stops circulating. whoever has value will get bought out, alphabet turns into the first trillion dollar company. now what? where are the jobs? these companies won't buy services from other companies anymore using their angel bucks. salesforce starts laying people off. at that point, the market bubble will shoot down. when it shoots down, everyone panics and sells. boom, market bubble collapse. say hello to 2000 all over again. the issue is, what if this compounds with say, another mini-bubble like car loans? what if it compounds with the above? we're all dead, man, all of us. i am doubtful this will actualy be the cause of a depression, this might be our current 10 year recession waiting to happen, and then everything's all good in a year. ahh, a recession is going to happen though. let's take a look at our good old friend, the regular rear end market pattern that happens everywhere: time between each recession (since the great depression): 1 year, 9 months 4 years, 2 months 6 years, 8 months 3 years, 1 month 3 years, 9 months 3 years, 3 months 2 years 8 years, 10 months 3 years 4 years, 10 months 1 year 7 years, 8 months 10 years 6 years, 1 month thats right, longest we've gone without one is ten years. when was the last recession? Dec 2007 we're right on loving time. hold on everyone, we're ready for the trump recession. take your bets. when will it happen? how will it crash? speak now or forever hold your peace. we're hosed, ya'll, it's just a matter of when.
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Jul 7, 2017 07:09
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| # ¿ May 21, 2024 10:37 |
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btw this is a post-fact zone, so feel free to make up your own unique doomsday scenario
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Jul 7, 2017 07:10
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i love unlabeled charts
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Jul 7, 2017 07:48
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logikv9 posted:when does silicon valley turn into a deserted hellscape there's a chance it doesnt because china is dumping more and more money there even as venture capitalists aren't investing as heavily Trash Trick posted:im not sure, but it seems like a p good idea to just build up a shitload of cash and invest in blue chips when poo poo hits the fan i literally have an enormous amount of cash stockpiled because the second the market burns im dumping it all in the market when its at its cheapest (or im just gonna buy a house) this will backfire spectacularly when instead the value of the dollar plummets and the market is fine. anime was right fucked around with this message at 07:52 on Jul 7, 2017 |
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Jul 7, 2017 07:49
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funniest scenario is china buys twitter once everyone realizes its going to crash and burn and only to avoid their own economic instability
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Jul 7, 2017 07:50
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rudatron posted:i'm convinced the housing bubble has to pop after the tech bubble, because it's the tech bubble that's propping up the most egregious housing markets - once that falls, the rest will follow, but that's just my theory if the tech bubble bursts, all of the houses china and russia bought in seattle and vancouver might become worthless so that might cause be a selling frenzy. in addition, homeowners might default when they lose their 100k/year gig. it's a possible domino for sure. just remember that if one bubble bursts and suddenly every single millenial loses their job, all of that debt that was deemed "safe" in these SLABS is garbage and all those bets also lose money. worst case scenario is probably tech bubble bursts and takes a huge wave of jobs with it and taking the housing market and student loans with it. once that happens, there will be no money to stimulate the economy from anyone under 35 because they'll either have to eat the debt or pretend it doesn't exist. if they pretend it doesn't exist, congrats, those SLABS become double worthless. anime was right fucked around with this message at 08:05 on Jul 7, 2017 |
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Jul 7, 2017 08:02
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Karl Barks posted:https://twitter.com/eliotwb/status/883368037293752320 the issues is if these stocks crash and burn there's going to be a sell mentality and the market is pretty loving inflated. we might get a small recession from that, or if this also causes an enormous hiring freeze and layoff wave, then things get tricky imo
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Jul 7, 2017 18:26
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Jose posted:Other than they think regulations are bad why are the republicans getting rid of Dodd Frank via wapo "The bill weakens the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, for example, and repeals the “Volcker rule,” which restricts big banks’ ability to make risky financial bets. Big banks would face “stress tests” less often to prove they could survive economic turmoil, and regulators' ability to provide oversight of insurance companies or hedge funds would also be curtailed." basically dodd-frank makes it harder to gamble on securities and steal more money from the poor in ways like the wells fargo fraud case a few months back their dumb talking point is "it hurts jobs because small banks are burdened by the additional regulation"
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Jul 7, 2017 19:10
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etalian posted:I think the more modern warning is when all your cube-farm co-workers start believing the stock market is a full-proof way to make money or are talking about getting into house flipping. i have to consistently warn my mother against house-flipping, who still thinks its a great idea when you dont have excess capital to fall back on 
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Jul 7, 2017 23:19
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wrong thread
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Jul 7, 2017 23:33
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hopefully when the market crashes i can just buy a sweet house for cash while im unemployed yahoo
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Jul 8, 2017 10:26
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there's gonna be food lines, i bet.
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Jul 8, 2017 10:39
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Mr. Sharps posted:doomsday economic scenario: the stock market implodes. the density of information moving through its fiber networks and stored in its data servers exceeds the schwarzchild radius required for a black hole of equivalent mass and the financial district is sent to cosmic oblivion, followed quickly by the rest of the planet. nice
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Jul 8, 2017 23:08
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Larry Parrish posted:IDK about data but in rural areas like mine the only reason that merely a large amount of people versus the majority ended up foreclosed on is because a lot of rural families live in old houses their family has owned for a long time, and in urban areas obviously most people don't actually live in houses anyway. And it's not like flipping an apartment tower is an easy thing most of the places hit hardest by the housing crisis were in the west, where communities are often brand new and houses are less likely to be generational. it seems like the southwestern states (california, nevada, arizona), took most of the impact.
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Jul 9, 2017 07:31
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chinese are investing shitloads of money into anything american because if america goes down, the entire world goes down with it. it's the most stable place to dump your cash because if your money's no good here, it's no good anywhere. at least currently. yuan is hella unstable and they're dumping whatever they can abroad.
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Jul 10, 2017 07:43
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buy a remote cabin in oregon that won't be destroyed by an earthquake, invest all your remaining money in guns (stocks and actual)
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Jul 10, 2017 17:56
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Larry Parrish posted:Unironically, a remote cabin w/ some flat land for a large garden and maybe a root cellar or something is pretty much the ideal piece of property for any future economic situation. Mostly because living in the forest owns. this is pretty much my retirement plan
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Jul 10, 2017 21:53
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Jul 13, 2017 21:22
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call to action posted:I bought a house in CO like two years ago and it has gone up in value 49.6% if Redfin is to be believed (Zillow has a much higher estimate that I don't think is accurate). I'd totally cash out and just use the gains to buy a McMansion in Ohio if I didn't like my place so much the places with the most newer homes will get hosed (loan amount vastly higher the actual home's price + ppl lose their jobs) that means the places where people are migrating or being built out will be hit the worst. that means the places with rapidly inflating prices will be hurt most. seattle and austin will be crippled. also any foreign investments will lose a lot of value but those places might be held onto since they're considered investments and not places ppl live for and pay with loans. i actually think "new" cities will be hit the worst such as austin and portland. seattle is kind of a mix. the last recession killed the west for a reason: most people were building out these brand new cities on the cheap and people who took out loans in whogivesafucksville california now had a shack in the desert.
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Jul 24, 2017 18:26
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i contradicted myself in there and meant to say seattle and austin might be crippled* but yeah its just wherever the new loans are, which seem to be the cities people are moving out of california to. jobs matter too. if the places are bought with cash for investment purposes it will suck but not as bad, probably. i think those "build a brand new city" places overnight will take it hte worst tho since their economies will vanish overnight.
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Jul 24, 2017 18:39
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Karl Barks posted:it's fine we'll just raise taxes on the rich and use that money to pay for stimulus for the working class nah civil forfeiture imo
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Aug 4, 2017 22:03
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https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-08-07/u-s-credit-card-debt-surpasses-record-set-at-brink-of-crisis U.S. Credit-Card Debt Surpasses Record Set at Brink of Crisis quote:U.S. consumer credit-card debt just passed an ominous milestone, beating a record set just before the global financial system almost collapsed in 2008. love 2 repeat history
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Aug 9, 2017 17:22
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logikv9 posted:the saltero's internal Salt Sensors identifies exactly what is contained inside the salt shaker at all times saltero contents
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Aug 10, 2017 02:25
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Taintrunner posted:here is how cheating on taxes to make lovely videogames is rewarded in our modern doomsday world normallly dont read the comments, but especially dont read the comments
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Aug 11, 2017 15:58
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Sir Tonk posted:anime was wrong what in Tarnation.. heck
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Aug 11, 2017 16:53
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crazy cloud posted:Please do same, thats why i made the thread
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Aug 25, 2017 22:14
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Digiwizzard posted:https://www.cnbc.com/2017/08/24/most-americans-live-paycheck-to-paycheck.html anyone making over 100k and living paycheck to paycheck rents alone in sf/nyc or is an idiot
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Aug 26, 2017 00:03
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anime was right posted:anyone making over 100k and living paycheck to paycheck rents alone in sf/nyc or is an idiot note: there are like a dozen caveats to this statement but its more fun to talk in absolutes
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Aug 26, 2017 00:11
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ShutteredIn posted:The Chinese economy is entirely smoke and mirror based, none of the numbers are real totally unlike ours lol
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Aug 27, 2017 02:32
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Jose posted:would houston being wiped out be enough to crash the economy? unless it affects oil enough it wont
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Aug 29, 2017 18:48
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its far more likely a few million people need to go into enormous debt to recover and they default on that in 4-6 years that causes it
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Aug 29, 2017 19:18
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SKULL.GIF posted:wow Barack Obama really saved us from the economic disaster and totally didn't just kick the can 8 years down the road
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Aug 31, 2017 17:49
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hey yall keep it c-spam in here not d&d yikes
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Sep 3, 2017 10:35
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Jose posted:lol we're going to reach a point where the bubble is forming and bursting within a single year we're in the bubble, my dude
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Oct 10, 2017 10:39
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a loving pro-reaganomics institute is now calling for higher taxes on the wealthy lol https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/oct/11/imf-higher-taxes-rich-inequality-jeremy-corbyn-labour-donald-trump that sounds like a panic button to me
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Oct 11, 2017 23:58
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to me doomsday is just another great depression its not like the world explodes but hey it might who knows haha
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Oct 14, 2017 06:36
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Zyla posted:i am a idiot but why doeas the stock market keep going up they think tax cuts are coming and nothing has broken the illusion that spending can continue to go up. also more and more money is being locked into debt so when people cant pay it off, thats when everything will explode.
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Oct 18, 2017 22:40
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if the tax cuts fail to pass or you see a dem congress in 2018, the economy is going to explode then, probably, unless a huge company that is a stellar representative of a current bubble explodes before then.
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Oct 18, 2017 22:41
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BrutalistMcDonalds posted:YouTube channel about markets and a video about imminent economic apocalypse. For all I know all of these guys are crackpots and, to be sure, they are doomsayers. But I think it's interesting. any branding with the word "truth" or "real" is anything but, basically
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Oct 20, 2017 22:23
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| # ¿ May 21, 2024 10:37 |
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do you think people just say sanders just to deliberately confuse ppl
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Oct 27, 2017 21:48
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