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BrutalistMcDonalds
Oct 4, 2012


Lipstick Apathy
i was wondering where all these people get the money to drive expensive new cars where i live (land of $30k millionaires) and now i know

it's subprime auto loans

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BrutalistMcDonalds
Oct 4, 2012


Lipstick Apathy

rudatron posted:

yeah well get ready shitlord because I've cornered the market on bottlecaps
i'm joining caesar's legion

except caesar in this timeline is zuck

BrutalistMcDonalds
Oct 4, 2012


Lipstick Apathy

Jose posted:

i'm glad america are going to crash the world economy right about the time brexit happens
it's weird.

i live in dallas which has a very hot housing market, and the civic culture here is boosterism on a scale that most other american cities can hardly match. see, everything is fine because companies are relocating here everything is going swimmingly!!! so clearly it's totally obvious and you're an IDIOT if you don't believe the jobs can forever-and-ever support the continuing rise in prices!!! but i'm not so sure.

it's not heading to 2008 again, i don't think. but the amount of garbage auto loans, student loans, credit card debt -- in combination -- isn't sustainable. consumer debt more broadly is the problem.

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/06/18/business/dealbook/car-loan-subprime.html

quote:

With their low credit scores, buying or leasing a new car is not an option. And when all the interest and fees of a subprime loan are added up, even a used car with mechanical defects and many miles on the odometer can end up costing more than a new car.

Subprime lenders are willing to take a chance on these risky borrowers because when they default, the lenders can repossess their cars and persuade judges in 46 states to give them the power to seize borrowers’ paychecks to cover the balance of the car loan.

Now, with defaults rising, federal banking regulators and economists are worried how the strain of these loans will spill over into the broader economy.

For low-income Americans, the fallout could, in some ways, be worse than the mortgage crisis.

With mortgages, people could turn in the keys to their house and walk away. But with auto debt, there is increasingly no exit. Repossession, rather than being the end, is just the beginning.

[...]

Auto lending was one of the few types of credit that did not dry up during the financial crisis. It now stands at more than $1.1 trillion.

Despite many signs that the market is overheating, securities tied to the loans are so profitable — yielding twice as much as certain Treasury securities — that they remain a sought-after investment on Wall Street.

“The dog keeps eating until its stomach explodes,” said Daniel Zwirn, who runs Arena, a hedge fund that has avoided subprime auto investments.
i'm not an economist i can just look at what's going on in my own immediate neighborhood.

there's ads on drive-time radio now about how to profit from house flipping, which should be a big red siren on the massive speculation that's going on -- i imagine now in part because oil is less profitable. (i knew some people who got into oil speculating for awhile.) the texans are all about it, but people who moved here from florida and so on are (rightfully) skeptical.

BrutalistMcDonalds fucked around with this message at 15:27 on Jul 7, 2017

BrutalistMcDonalds
Oct 4, 2012


Lipstick Apathy

Mayor Dave posted:

I can tell when a bubble is about to burst because my brother gets involved in a new get rich scheme. He was in the process of buying a house to flip when the market crashed (luckily for him the deal fell through) , and now he's buying gpus for mining. I expect the crash any day now.
oh that reminds me i wonder what nvidia looks like



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FL33_8DcqnE

BrutalistMcDonalds
Oct 4, 2012


Lipstick Apathy
My new startup will replace stoplights with alternative devices with a light gray (platinum) and white (fog) exterior like Apple computers. It will revolutionize how we automate traffic control at city intersections.

BrutalistMcDonalds
Oct 4, 2012


Lipstick Apathy
Monopolize the charcoal trade.

How are people gonna cook without electricity if they don't have charcoal????

BrutalistMcDonalds
Oct 4, 2012


Lipstick Apathy
People are like "I'm gonna survive with my hoard of guns and one-year's supply of dehydrated food"

Whatever. I've got my eyes set on something else. And that thing, is charcoal.

BrutalistMcDonalds
Oct 4, 2012


Lipstick Apathy
YouTube channel about markets and a video about imminent economic apocalypse. For all I know all of these guys are crackpots and, to be sure, they are doomsayers. But I think it's interesting.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vBJ-p0ybhzs&t=87s

By the way...

https://twitter.com/hmeisler/status/921100888890068993

BrutalistMcDonalds
Oct 4, 2012


Lipstick Apathy
https://twitter.com/CNBC/status/935230840036122625
https://twitter.com/NorthmanTrader/status/928391064330932229

BrutalistMcDonalds
Oct 4, 2012


Lipstick Apathy

SKULL.GIF posted:

i worked briefly in university administration as an assistant and it is absolutely loving amazing how many fat worthless office slugs are given welfare by college administration networks

like normally I'm not the type to begrudge people earning money however they can in this hellsystem of ours, but every last one of these people were sickeningly obese, idiotic, and obsessed with personal relationships and drama and career advancement over actually helping students. that whole office could have been slashed to 10% of what it was and not lost any effectiveness

it took me a couple years to finally overcome the misogyny that that job instilled into me. it wasn't even a random fuckoff school, it was a prominent state university, one of the Public Ivies
this sounds like a relative, at least on working networks to one's advantage. though i'm not sure on the details, she worked office jobs for years, went back to school in her 50s and then worked in administration and then retired. wondering if she got a pension from it.

BrutalistMcDonalds
Oct 4, 2012


Lipstick Apathy

MrWilderheap posted:

Advertising on the internet has got to be seriously overvalued. It's shady as hell, and the biggest, most "reputable" sites have scammers and clickbait advertising on them. Adblock is just going to get more popular and eventually people will start realizing their ads are barely reaching anyone
oh it's in total collapse mode

BrutalistMcDonalds
Oct 4, 2012


Lipstick Apathy
yeah i have no idea. i went to a state college that had no organized left presence at all (although that's starting to change from what i hear). there were college democrats, republicans, and libertarians. after i was gone the libertarian group split, and the remainder mutated into some kind of nationalist alt-right adjacent group that started showing up at protests in the city next door with actual neo-nazis. poo poo was dark.

where i live now, near the (bigger) university, the trotskyist club brings in more people every week than TPUSA does monthly; and they're not the only socialist group on campus. most people are probably apolitical though i would say.

BrutalistMcDonalds
Oct 4, 2012


Lipstick Apathy
https://twitter.com/NorthmanTrader/status/939134063604051968

BrutalistMcDonalds
Oct 4, 2012


Lipstick Apathy
https://twitter.com/jessefelder/status/941328758505603072

quote:

From my perspective, I think there's a lot of speculation going on here. Particularly, there's this kind of weird thing happening where Bitcoin's original selling point was that it was going to be this kind of easy payment application where you can pay anyone anywhere in the world directly without having to deal with a middle man. And as the price has risen, and as the network has gotten clogged with too many transactions, that payment application doesn't really seem to be working anymore. So people have changed their way of talking about it to describe it as a crypto-asset. And people are buying it because they think it's going to have higher value in the future. So it's just a cycle of people thinking they're gonna buy it now, and someone else is going to be willing to buy it later from them for more. To me that sounds like a speculative bubble, but there is a core contingent of people who believe that as some point Bitcoin will be used for everything—they call it "hyperbitcoinization."
https://twitter.com/jessefelder/status/941313676518313984
You're saying startup lenders could give me money with my bitcoin as collateral??? What could go wrong???

BrutalistMcDonalds fucked around with this message at 16:48 on Dec 14, 2017

BrutalistMcDonalds
Oct 4, 2012


Lipstick Apathy
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5W7F0odL828

get really baked / drunk / hosed-up before you watch this

BrutalistMcDonalds
Oct 4, 2012


Lipstick Apathy

quadruple cuck posted:

mega city one supremacy
east meg one

BrutalistMcDonalds
Oct 4, 2012


Lipstick Apathy
https://twitter.com/jessefelder/status/943880274655539200

BrutalistMcDonalds
Oct 4, 2012


Lipstick Apathy

WampaLord posted:

It will be student loans.

Or housing again.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gfKtimn6rPU

BrutalistMcDonalds
Oct 4, 2012


Lipstick Apathy
https://twitter.com/LizAnnSonders/status/943872281633226752

BrutalistMcDonalds
Oct 4, 2012


Lipstick Apathy
so i don't really understand bitcoin.

but what i know is that as there are more bitcoin, it costs more to mine new ones due to the cost of electricity?

and it takes a long time to sell a bitcoin? and everyone is trying to cash out at once? and people went into debt to buy bitcoin?

how is this not a ponzi?

BrutalistMcDonalds
Oct 4, 2012


Lipstick Apathy

BrutalistMcDonalds
Oct 4, 2012


Lipstick Apathy
https://twitter.com/ProudMoolie/status/944047003557945345
https://twitter.com/ProudMoolie/status/944064234651914240

https://twitter.com/fiatcrush/status/941266189573005313

BrutalistMcDonalds
Oct 4, 2012


Lipstick Apathy

skaboomizzy posted:

short version:

Crytek, the people who designed the engine Star Citizen is built on, hired a shark-level law firm (Skadden) to sue whatever the potemkin village of shell corps Star Citizen is now for breach of contract on several counts

this is a few months after SC took out a loan from a big-time UK bank for reasons they never explained

they were supposed to live-stream their big holiday update thing Thursday at 3pm Eastern time but didn't; the "community manager" claimed it was because of a water main break and someone had a car wreck, then he deleted those tweets. it's supposedly happening today at 3pm

there's still no actual game, but they recently started selling land and are probably selling tanks next
tank you

BrutalistMcDonalds
Oct 4, 2012


Lipstick Apathy

BrutalistMcDonalds
Oct 4, 2012


Lipstick Apathy

The Phlegmatist posted:

Looking forward to squatting in one of the many exurb ghost towns with the rest of the millenials in twenty years tho
Hey, friend!

BrutalistMcDonalds
Oct 4, 2012


Lipstick Apathy
problem is unless you expropriate the boomer wealth, them dying off is only going to increase overall inequality in the society because the millennials (well, it's tricky defining the start/end date) are even more unequal within their (my) cohort. generational solidarity is pretty overrated when you realize you're in the same generation with mark zuckerberg and eric trump.

BrutalistMcDonalds
Oct 4, 2012


Lipstick Apathy
do they call it Watr

has anyone made this joke yet???

BrutalistMcDonalds
Oct 4, 2012


Lipstick Apathy
Oh gently caress yeah. Speaking of podcasts Richard Vague (author of "The Next Economic Disaster") did an hour here:

https://bloggingheads.tv/videos/50130

He doesn't pop up much. Investment banker and adviser of various sorts. I don't know where to place him economically or politically, but he kinda reminds me of Mark Blyth. His main warhorse is how private debt (business and household) creates recessions and depressions, as opposed to public debt which gets the most attention. I think it's interesting.

Article: https://democracyjournal.org/magazine/42/the-private-debt-crisis/

Edit: Eh this podcast is kinda boring.

BrutalistMcDonalds fucked around with this message at 22:16 on Jan 1, 2018

BrutalistMcDonalds
Oct 4, 2012


Lipstick Apathy
Saw Steve Keen retweet this.

https://twitter.com/bankcustomers/status/948097277775593472

Interesting prediction.

BrutalistMcDonalds
Oct 4, 2012


Lipstick Apathy
I wonder if Koreans are more susceptible to scams, demonstrated by the new religious movements and cults over there. Also my 50something Korean tennis buddy who I had to talk out of getting scammed by some fake bank sweepstakes email.

I'm not judging. I'm from America and we're the biggest suckers on the face of the earth.

BrutalistMcDonalds
Oct 4, 2012


Lipstick Apathy
block my chainhole

BrutalistMcDonalds
Oct 4, 2012


Lipstick Apathy

Alpha Mayo posted:

ROFL the crash was halted by an exchange pumping 160 million of fake US currency called Tether into it's own exchange. It looks like the Ponzi gets to live another day.
holy poo poo

i read about that company. the fake US currency is supposed to be "reliable" because every "tether" is backed by a U.S. dollar equivalent.

this company does not have $160 million they just pumped into the exchange

BrutalistMcDonalds
Oct 4, 2012


Lipstick Apathy

TheDon01 posted:

Wait what?

This is some internet dollar that is essentially a silver certificate kinda thing? But they dont have any silver if anyone comes a claiming?
something like that yeah

http://fortune.com/2017/12/05/bitcoin-btc-price-usd-tether-limited-bitfinex/

quote:

Bitfinex’s CEO is also the CEO of a company called Tether Limited, which issues tethers (also known as USDT), a pegged cryptocurrency; that is, the tether’s value is pegged directly to that of the U.S. dollar. To do so, Tether commits to keep the dollar equivalent of all USDT value in reserves at all times. Tether offers a way to own and move fiat currency across different cryptocurrencies and exchanges without the need to convert crypto assets into dollars. That means transactions are fast and cheap, yet the price of the currency is as stable as the U.S. dollar, in theory.

While it’s unclear what exact transactions take place with them after, what we observe is that once these USDT enter the Bitfinex exchange, the price of bitcoin jumps, as has happened multiple times recently. That means it’s likely the new tethers are used to buy bitcoin. As demand for bitcoin surges, its price goes up, investors see that and want to get in on it, more bitcoin is bought, and the cycle continues.

On one hand, there’s nothing wrong with this. It’s just the way the currency markets work. And if the currencies involved are truly backed up by dollars, there’s not much risk in the system.

The problem is that it’s hard to say how well backed up the USDT really are. Bitfinex has assured investors that the cryptocurrencies it trades are backed up—but more vaguely than hoped: The exchange says it has adequate “resources” to back them up. If said resources aren’t dollars, it could be a problem.

Specifically, if Bitfinex doesn’t have the liquidity to survive a large-scale cash-out of tether, bitcoin, or any other cryptocurrency traded there, we could see something similar to what happened in 2014, when the Mt. Gox exchange collapsed under similar circumstances. Investors lost everything they’d put into the cryptocurrencies in question, though the currencies regained investor confidence afterward, led by bitcoin.

BrutalistMcDonalds
Oct 4, 2012


Lipstick Apathy

Karl Barks posted:

america was built on fraud so this makes sense
it's true

BrutalistMcDonalds
Oct 4, 2012


Lipstick Apathy

logikv9 posted:

all money is made up if you think about it!! *pulls out dollar* this thing, it's worth nothing if you think it's worth nothing! owned crypto haters!
hey for access to your something awful account i will give you 1,000 brutumacs

each brutumac is worth $1

pm your account details and why yes i have adequate resources backing that up

BrutalistMcDonalds
Oct 4, 2012


Lipstick Apathy

SpaceGoku posted:

ah man, ahaha

not only is tether fake money but it's the fake money equivalent of those COMMEMORATIVE COIN REAL LIBERIAN LEGAL TENDER commercials for tacky collectible currency
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=llNAsoF64Ng

BrutalistMcDonalds
Oct 4, 2012


Lipstick Apathy
holy poo poo

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kbR1SXIje1U

BrutalistMcDonalds
Oct 4, 2012


Lipstick Apathy
ohhhh yeah. now combine with student loan debt + auto loan debt on rapidly depreciating cars + other stupid debt we don't even know about

BrutalistMcDonalds
Oct 4, 2012


Lipstick Apathy

quote:

Time and again, that’s the story we found: A major financial crisis is preceded by a runup in private debt relative to GDP. In fact, there seems to be only one other ingredient required for a crisis: that the absolute level of private debt is high to begin with. We found that almost all instances of rapid debt growth coupled with high overall levels of private debt have led to crises.

To put a finer point on it: For major economies, if the ratio of private debt to GDP is at least 150 percent, and if that ratio grows by at least 18 percent over the course of five years, then a big crisis is likely in the offing.

Until the moment of reckoning, things may seem wonderful. Rapid private-debt growth fueled what were viewed as triumphs in their day—the Roaring Twenties, the Japanese “economic miracle” of the ’80s, and the Asian boom of the ’90s—but these were debt-powered binges that brought these economies to the brink of economic ruin.

What’s alarming is that, of the two ingredients for an economic crisis—high private debt and rapid private-debt growth—one is still with us even after the 2008 collapse. Private debt in the U.S., relative to GDP, stands at 156 percent. That’s lower than the 173 percent it reached in 2008, but it’s still nearly triple the level—55 percent—it was at in 1950. Indeed, across the globe there has been a steep climb in the ratio of private debt to GDP over that period.

[...]

What’s astonishing is how little attention the global debt problem—the extremely high ratio of private debt to GDP—has gotten. Not only does it leave the U.S. and other countries vulnerable to crisis should brisk growth in that ratio resume, but, quite apart from any crisis, the accumulation of higher levels of private debt over decades impedes economic growth. Money that would otherwise be spent on things such as business investment, cars, homes, and vacations is increasingly diverted to making payments on the growing debt— especially among middle- and lower-income groups that compose most of our population and whose spending is necessary to drive economic growth. Debt, once accumulated, constrains demand.

The ideal condition for growth is to have less capacity (that is, the supply of housing, factories, etc.) than demand, coupled with low private debt. This was the case during the decades immediately after World War II. But now we have nearly the opposite situation. In the first decade of the 2000s, the United States and Europe built far too much capacity, especially in housing, and incurred too much private debt. In the 1980s, Japan built far too much capacity, saddling its banks with too much private debt and too many bad loans. While all these countries have been catching up to this capacity, none yet has less capacity than demand, and all still have high private debt. And now China, whose industrialization and urbanization long fueled global growth, has created its own overcapacity and private debt problem, building far too much capacity in the form of industrial and real estate projects while providing easy credit that fueled a rapid buildup of private debt. So no major global economic player now has that pivotal combination of undercapacity and low private debt that can fuel productive investment and help boost global growth.

What’s more, excessive private debt may contribute to one of the great problems of our time: growing income inequality and the hollowing out of the middle class. The middle class tends to grow when there is too little capacity and low private debt (as after World War II). In contrast, the middle class plateaus or shrinks when there is too much capacity and too much debt (as at the present). Stated differently, inequality increases when there is high capacity and high debt; it decreases when capacity and debt are low.

https://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2014/09/government-debt-isnt-the-problemprivate-debt-is/379865/
also

quote:

To be sure, low government debt has its virtues. Still, the main focus should now be on reducing private debt. This is known as “deleveraging,” and the U.S. did very little of it in the immediate aftermath of the 2008 crisis.

One form of deleveraging is to provide relief for borrowers. This spurs economic growth, because by and large borrowers—especially middle-income and lower-income consumers—are likely to use the extra money to make purchases that stimulate the economy.

So what we need to do is remove some of the debt burden weighing down middle-income and low-income people. You can call it debt “restructuring” or you can call it (partial) debt forgiveness. Either way, it’s needed.

Of course, banks and other lenders may protest. For removing liabilities from the borrower’s balance sheet means removing assets from the lender’s balance sheet. But a one-time program to allow lenders to write down these assets over a long period—say 30 years—will make this sacrifice easily bearable. And as for the much-discussed “moral hazard” problem—the possibility that insulating people from the consequences of their bad decisions will lead to more bad decisions down the road: We briefly suspended our concern regarding moral hazard for lenders when the government rescued them during the crisis. We haven’t done the same for borrowers. And lenders, no less than borrowers, are responsible for the existence of loans that turn out to have been ill-advised.

But none of this is likely to happen until we get over our exclusive political obsession with public debt and gain a proper appreciation of the role private debt plays in economic calamities.

BrutalistMcDonalds fucked around with this message at 00:15 on Jan 22, 2018

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BrutalistMcDonalds
Oct 4, 2012


Lipstick Apathy
https://twitter.com/jessefelder/status/955830653945344000

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