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etalian
Mar 20, 2006

The next crash will be really nice

-After the last crash nothing was learned besides wall street banks finding out they could hold the country hostage
-Finance sector is still driven by commission sales, so this gives them a big incentive to continue cranking out new high risk products
like the securitized subprime auto loans
-Trump administration will continue its program of deregulation and literally has Goldman Sachs guy running the Treasury
-Most of the great finance sector investments that led to the 2008 crash are still around but just got rebranded
-Bull markets don't last forever, the private equity bubble is also pretty impressive
-Home prices especially in commodity sensitive countries like Australia and Canada are heavily inflated

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etalian
Mar 20, 2006

lol

etalian
Mar 20, 2006

Typo posted:

lol if you bought canada house in 2015 you would be rich by now

my friend who bought a house last year already made shitloads of potential $$$ if he sold but he's pretty much going "THIS IS NEW NORM"

Good thing that housing is such a illiquid asset.

etalian
Mar 20, 2006

Karl Barks posted:

unless state pension funds are being pushed into snapchat stock. i guess anything is possible.

Well the good news is Calpers at least started to rid of their Hedge Fund rip-off deals but still has a fairly large stake in private equity

https://www.reuters.com/article/california-calpers-privateequity-idUSL1N1JG0XQ

quote:

In December, CalPERS announced that it would reduce its private equity asset class from 10 percent to 8 percent of the total portfolio in order to reduce some of the risks in the fund.

Roughly $25.9 billion of CalPERS' $318.9 billion fund was invested in private equity as of April 30.

Private equity is now the only asset class in CalPERS' portfolio with a return forecast above 7 percent over the next decade, making the asset class a vital component to maintaining the fund's assumed return rate of 7 percent by 2020.

CalPERS, along with most public pension funds across the country, has struggled to achieve its investment goals in recent years. CalPERS returned 0.61 percent last year, compared to its assumed rate of return at the time of 7.5 percent.

Pretty hilarious how CalPers did so poorly in what is still bull market and their top level staff get big compensation packages

etalian
Mar 20, 2006

Karl Barks posted:

https://twitter.com/eliotwb/status/883368037293752320

https://twitter.com/Investopedia/status/879800251829305344

^^ actually this text is confusing, snap is already well below it's ipo price

also dropbox is supposed to ipo soon and that will almost certainly burst into flames

Pro-tip public IPOs are for rubes since most institutional type money have already locked down a price for their shares far lower than
what Joe Schmoe investor is excited to pay on launch day.

etalian
Mar 20, 2006

Karl Barks posted:

that's insane - the harvard endowment had something similar, tho it was closer to 2-3% returns. not sure how they're managing to gently caress up that badly in this market

Well Calpers does a active management type strategy for the investment and also for many years put big money in hedge funds even though management fees for such investments always eat
up the overall net returns

etalian
Mar 20, 2006

My fav startup was that failed bus transport system Leap

https://vimeo.com/122275278

etalian
Mar 20, 2006

I think the more modern warning is when all your cube-farm co-workers start believing the stock market is a full-proof way to make money or are talking about getting into house flipping.

etalian
Mar 20, 2006

Theranos was pretty good story as well especially how it had random people like Kissinger and Gen Matthias on the board of directors.

etalian
Mar 20, 2006

For the last decade the biggest returns for the Yale Endowment was their private equity investments.

etalian
Mar 20, 2006

logikv9 posted:

juicero, but for urban transport

The Hyperloop project?

etalian
Mar 20, 2006

consumed by normies posted:

dont understand how there was basically no effect from us housing crash

Well for Canada the high prices are being driven by factor such as rich mainlander chinese seeing cities line Vancouver as a escape from the firing squad type cities.

Also Canadian banks did get hit hard in the 2008 but got lots of secret bailout money from the US Fed/Canadian government to the tune of 114 billion dollars.

etalian
Mar 20, 2006

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bkm2Vfj42FY

etalian
Mar 20, 2006

logikv9 posted:

Would you like to buy a shack outside of Vancouver? 1.3 million dollars.

The crackhouse or mansion is pretty drat funny

etalian
Mar 20, 2006

I'm most excited over the thought of the start-up/private equity bubble bursting.

etalian
Mar 20, 2006

The whole finance sector makes sense once you realize that a most of the big bucks comes in through things like commissions or end of year bonuses.

Lots of incentive to create new whacky products just to drive up your yearly sales.

etalian
Mar 20, 2006

Byolante posted:

They already killed the protection for investors that the vendor cannot knowingly sell toxic assets without warning the investor of it properly.

Also companies which knowingly sold junk mortgages to federally funded entities like Fannie Mac pretty much got off the hook.

Only thing the finance sector learned from the crash, is they will never be accountable for their actions and outright fraud.

etalian
Mar 20, 2006

etalian
Mar 20, 2006

Jedi Knight Luigi posted:

Righteousness and blessedness :mrgw:

Imagine this every day if Bernie would have won.

etalian
Mar 20, 2006

Rex-Goliath posted:

also lol rt

etalian
Mar 20, 2006

Pidgin Englishman posted:

Did everyone watch this?

gently caress, it's good.

Mark Blyth especially how he exposes bad dem beliefs in things like austerity being good and other bad dem voodoo economics.

etalian
Mar 20, 2006

Vermain posted:

right, which is my point: you've got an already sterile economy that's currently being propped up by financial fantasies which is going to see even fewer viable jobs in the future, because the automation we'll see will still be in the service of the profit motive and not in the service of reducing drudgery. that's the bad news that we're hurtling towards and no one has an answer for it

automation will be the next big economic disruption especially when jobs like truck drivers start getting replaced 10-15 years from now.

etalian
Mar 20, 2006

call to action posted:

I don't know about y'all but I got the gently caress out of stocks in my IRA and 401(k) two months or so ago and I'm ready to buy at the bottom

you can't time the market noob

Also was lolling at article about how CDOs are making a big comeback

http://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2017/08/cdos-are-back/

quote:

The synthetic CDO, a villain of the global financial crisis, is back….In the U.S., the CDO market sunk steadily in the years after the financial crisis but has been fairly flat since 2014. In Europe, the total size of market is now rising again—up 5.6% annually in the first quarter of the year and 14.4% in the last quarter of 2016, according to the Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association.

etalian
Mar 20, 2006

Jeb! Repetition posted:

Labor won't be human anymore.

Future will probably be like in the book Player Piano

etalian
Mar 20, 2006

Notorious R.I.M. posted:

Really funny/depressing to read this thread and watch everyone overlook the direct impacts climate change will have to GDP on very near timescales. You just saw Harvey happen, now imagine that over and over and worse and you get what's coming.

Also global warming will gently caress over the Middle East in a big way

etalian
Mar 20, 2006

Notorious R.I.M. posted:

You want real doomsday economics? As sea surface temperatures go up by about 2C, now the entire east coast up through canada has waters warm enough to support strong hurricane landfalls. Water that used to produce strong cat 4 can now produce super cat 5 strength hurricanes. Frequency of cyclogenesis goes up too due to the new climate regime we're uncovering creating more stationary weather. Coasts will literally be unable to support infrastructure because they can't support structures that support 200mph winds and feet upon feet of flooding. Let's not forget the pacific coast where the persistent ridging high will become a more common feature that increases heatwaves and wildfires.

If your doomsday economics doesn't include a near-term collapse of us putting all of our chips on coastal development, then your doomsday economics are poo poo, sorry.

Midwest rust belt cities will become more valuable.

etalian
Mar 20, 2006

Notorious R.I.M. posted:

Anywhere with arable land and a low risk of floods and wildfires will become extremely valuable.

imagine all smug coastals being forced to relocate to cities like Cedar Rapids.

etalian
Mar 20, 2006

C. Everett Koop posted:

Jastiger's Revenge

Just chillin' at Cedar Rapids

etalian
Mar 20, 2006

Alpha Mayo posted:



Hope ya'll ready for this poo poo lol

lolling at how the biggest oscillations seemed to occur after the US finance sector got heavily deregulated.

etalian
Mar 20, 2006

succ posted:

alright i have about 20k in savings, where should i be putting it to prep for the inevitable crash

Answer here

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rOH37W0jPpA

etalian
Mar 20, 2006

Byolante posted:

Man pushes economic policy of deflation, is shocked when all money stops traveling into the economy.

Government fear inflation since its fucks over the finance sector especially for stuff like loans.

etalian
Mar 20, 2006

Peel posted:

rent control and social housing provision are the obvious answers


like maybe you think they're bad ideas but the concept seems straightforward

Most of US cost growth problems for things like housing cost, medical care and college would be easily addressed by nationalizing such things to split the costs.

Of course we live in such a dumb wasteful country such things will never be possible.

etalian
Mar 20, 2006

got any sevens posted:

i wont pay you more, but hey, ice cream party!!!

lol supposedly the whole production rollout was so bad they were building the new sedans by hand for many weeks.

etalian
Mar 20, 2006

Also many of the people who got purged were ones who upper management noticed were handing UAW literature at work

Musk probably had temper tantrum over his worker bees not being able to be his unrealistic production schedule goals

etalian
Mar 20, 2006

Also Musk whines about union due being a big burden on workers even though it amounts to $50-$70 a month.

Seems like a rip-off to get better benefits, higher hourly wages vs non-union workers and workplace protection...

etalian
Mar 20, 2006

According to Musk company insiders what he does he makes unrealistic schedules or will randomly shift schedules a few months to the left.

He believes this is good management since it encourages employees to work harder and come up with better solutions under stress.

etalian
Mar 20, 2006

Tiberius Christ posted:

jesus being a billionaire makes you mentally retarded

we should remove rich people because no human is capable of having that much power and not being a colossal fuckup

I remember watching that documentary on 1 percenters and they came across as psychopaths, completely disconnected from the concerns of poor people or in other cases outright dumb.

etalian
Mar 20, 2006

Duscat posted:

and if you think the price tag is shocking, just imagine your shock when a 30mph collision leaves you impaled on the steering wheel in a crumpled wad of sheet metal and burning lithium

Related Pro-Click

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_ULm6QrC428

etalian
Mar 20, 2006

Jose posted:

i learned today that one of the directors of the bitcoin foundation was Digital Entertainment Network founder brock pierce who also ran away to europe with another co-founder Marc Collins-Rector when he was indicted for child sex charges

Star Trek fans exiled to Europe...

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etalian
Mar 20, 2006

anime was right posted:

they think tax cuts are coming and nothing has broken the illusion that spending can continue to go up. also more and more money is being locked into debt so when people cant pay it off, thats when everything will explode.

Also US corporations got a massive benefit from Obama's QE program.

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