Lottery thread: Hacking Scratch Tickets

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Ask/Tell > Business, Finance, and Careers > Lottery thread: Hacking Scratch Tickets

Michael Transactions: Nov 11, 2013

Just bought a Mega Millions ticket, I will let you if I win. Or not.

# ? Oct 19, 2017 17:55

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# ? May 5, 2024 20:00

Coolness Averted: Feb 20, 2007; oh don't worry, I can't smell asparagus piss, it's in my DNA

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thanks

# ? Oct 19, 2017 20:30

Elephanthead: Sep 11, 2008; Toilet Rascal

Can't you look up the published winners and find scratcher games that have better odds? Like if there are 10 jackpots and only 3 have been claimed and the game is about to expire you can assume maybe the winners are on the end of the ticket rolls?

# ? Oct 19, 2017 21:45

maskenfreiheit: Dec 30, 2004

Are there any scratch off games where the expected loss is relatively small (≤2%)?

Could be a decent manufactured spending strategy for credit cards with a minimum spend for a signup bonus, esp if they do cashback.

(Some states, hilariously, allow you to buy lotto tickets with credit cards)

# ? Oct 20, 2017 16:15

Michael Transactions: Nov 11, 2013

For anyone who lives near the Fun Town Quik Mart in Booneville, KY, my model shows that there's an extra percentage that the Mega Balls numbers will be chosen from this store...

# ? Oct 20, 2017 18:14

woozy pawsies: Nov 26, 2007

is this thread only about scratch-it tickets or about lottery in general? because I got a system for powerball style lotteries that im pretty sure will work out.

# ? Oct 22, 2017 18:30

mysteryberto: Apr 25, 2006; IIAM

Go back and time and do this:
https://www.wired.com/2011/01/ff_lottery/

# ? Oct 22, 2017 19:34

maskenfreiheit: Dec 30, 2004

https://twitter.com/DRUDGE_REPORT/status/925111450955214848

# ? Oct 30, 2017 22:27

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maskenfreiheit posted:

https://twitter.com/DRUDGE_REPORT/status/925111450955214848

lol the odds of those tickets winning isn't statistically different than a standard lottery ticket

# ? Oct 31, 2017 20:01

maskenfreiheit: Dec 30, 2004

Coolness Averted posted:

lol the odds of those tickets winning isn't statistically different than a standard lottery ticket

Since their chances were literally not .000001 or whatever yes, they were

# ? Oct 31, 2017 20:19

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maskenfreiheit posted:

Since their chances were literally not .000001 or whatever yes, they were

the article posted:

If you buy a Mega Millions ticket in Virginia, you usually have a 0.00000033 percent chance of winning the big jackpot.

Or did you mean that as "anything regardless of how low that isn't fully zero does not equal zero?" unless you're talking about a chemical that's dangerous at the ppm level, nah, that small of a number is not significant and not something you should ever think about. Like they totally should get a refund, but if they're not worried about a meteorite striking and killing them, they really shouldn't be hoping to win the lottery.

# ? Oct 31, 2017 20:48

potatoducks: Jan 26, 2006

You're using "statistically different" when you actually mean "significantly different". Bad.

# ? Oct 31, 2017 22:34

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potatoducks posted:

You're using "statistically different" when you actually mean "significantly different". Bad.

I don't think I've ever seen 'statistically different' used as jargon, care to explain it? Usually folks for example will say "statistically speaking.." to refer to probabilities and things being unlikely or similar likelihood. Since the joke of the thread is played out, I'd love to learn something.

# ? Nov 1, 2017 05:14

Dwight Eisenhower: Jan 24, 2006; Indeed, I think that people want peace so much that one of these days governments had better get out of the way and let them have it.

The value of a lottery ticket is defined by the odds of the ticket winning and the cost of the ticket. The odds of winning times the payout at time of purchase is the expected value of the ticket. While most lottery tickets, most of the time have an expected value less than their face value (and thus are a bad purchase), there's still an expected value that is knowable and people can buy the ticket with that knowledge.

Changing the odds of payout changes the expected value and means that people buying the ticket are being mislead about the value of the ticket. Part of the whole justification of legalized gambling with lotteries is that all the information is available up front and so people are fully responsible for their decisions. When you sell tickets with a claimed expected value and it turns out to actually be a different expected value, that's defrauding the purchaser.

You could argue that it's moot and the math illiterate people who are buying the tickets didn't make their decision off expected value anyway so why care, and it's basically entirely down to how the state justifies embracing the moral hazard of being the house (in a gambling sense).

# ? Nov 1, 2017 16:48

Elephanthead: Sep 11, 2008; Toilet Rascal

Thank goodness lottery advertising doesn't completely emphasize the fact that if you buy a ticket you are surely going to become a millionaire. People could be misled about the chance of winning.

# ? Nov 1, 2017 17:04

Coolness Averted: Feb 20, 2007; oh don't worry, I can't smell asparagus piss, it's in my DNA

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Elephanthead posted:

Thank goodness lottery advertising doesn't completely emphasize the fact that if you buy a ticket you are surely going to become a millionaire. People could be misled about the chance of winning.

All profits go to the schools too! So it's a win-win! *pays an appointed Lottery Commissioner between 6 figures - a million a year* gosh kids, looks like there's not any profits this year