Register a SA Forums Account here!
JOINING THE SA FORUMS WILL REMOVE THIS BIG AD, THE ANNOYING UNDERLINED ADS, AND STUPID INTERSTITIAL ADS!!!

You can: log in, read the tech support FAQ, or request your lost password. This dumb message (and those ads) will appear on every screen until you register! Get rid of this crap by registering your own SA Forums Account and joining roughly 150,000 Goons, for the one-time price of $9.95! We charge money because it costs us money per month for bills, and since we don't believe in showing ads to our users, we try to make the money back through forum registrations.
(Thread IKs: fart simpson)
 
  • Post
  • Reply
Zohar
Jul 14, 2013

Good kitty

Grapplejack posted:

There's zero way that study passed any sort of ethical review and they're probably going to get suspended or worse over it

imagine giving that little of a gently caress about anything that you decide to turn an active / planned protest into an experiment ground

ethics boards give much less of a poo poo than you think they do, it lists all the IRBs it passed on the first page

Adbot
ADBOT LOVES YOU

Zohar
Jul 14, 2013

Good kitty

wow can't believe people in a general strike are stopping people from going to work, scary stuff

Zohar
Jul 14, 2013

Good kitty

sincx posted:

Looks like a scene from a Jackie Chan movie.



the best part is the triads lost on their own turf lol

Zohar
Jul 14, 2013

Good kitty

cargo cult posted:

the triads are working for the CCP? didn't gangsters serve as like death squads for the nationalists in the 30s or whatever? its been a while since i learned any of this sorry

they struck a deal at the time of the handover. this is from the time https://www.independent.co.uk/news/triads-and-china-do-hong-kong-deal-1261085.html

not like corrupt cops were invented by the CCP either, they still have British people who've been around since pre-1997 coordinating the riot response like this guy https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rupert_Dover

Zohar
Jul 14, 2013

Good kitty

CAPS LOCK BROKEN posted:

if your beef is with Beijing what good does inconveniencing your own commuters do? that’s like blocking I-90 to protest Chinese aggression

good point, we should shuttle protesters into Beijing

Zohar
Jul 14, 2013

Good kitty
it's interesting how the main arguments against the protesters atm are that they were damaging property, they were disrespectful to national symbols, they were preventing people getting to their jobs, and they were being mean to cops. really makes you think.

Zohar
Jul 14, 2013

Good kitty

CAPS LOCK BROKEN posted:

nobody ever made those arguments. how about the blackshirts are randomly beating up Hong Kong citizens? how about they’ve been caught on camera changing out of white shirts into black ones?

Hey guy, lest we forget you yourself literally repeated one of those arguments on the last page

Zohar
Jul 14, 2013

Good kitty

caberham posted:

you know what happened last night huh.

They tried to plant evidence, a baton into a protestors bag but was caught on camera.

Had agent provocateurs (decoy operation described in the press release) start fights, beat protesters up, and then arrest them. Also dodged the press when questioned and the press release was a giant mess

lol which hkpf press confs aren't a giant mess now

Zohar
Jul 14, 2013

Good kitty

uncop posted:

Genius, let's build a theory of history from a premise that's the exact opposite of what's historically true.

the key Marxist tenet that if something happens historically then it's good and will carry on happening forever

Zohar
Jul 14, 2013

Good kitty

Lightning Knight posted:

Sounds like the cops, op. I bet they’re using American made equipment too lol.

They are. And British.

Zohar
Jul 14, 2013

Good kitty
This happens regularly but managed to see in real time today - deranged anti-China tweet from a sub 10k follower news account with a few dozen interactions at the time instantly pushed to trending by Twitter:

https://twitter.com/InsiderAsia/status/1452289830939996171

Worth clicking through to see what they're whining about lol (tech companies being fined and "state intervention")

Zohar
Jul 14, 2013

Good kitty
The obsession with 89 in the West is interesting because in western discourse it exists only as an abstract concept completely detached from real history, so you can get people simultaneously bemoaning how Xi has abandoned Deng's legacy while going on endlessly about Tiananmen (or even forecasting "another Tiananmen" in Hong kong back in 2019)

Zohar
Jul 14, 2013

Good kitty

crepeface posted:

i'm sure all the biggest morons are the ones that get platformed on western media but idk how prevalent the attitude actually is. i know there was a general stereotype of mainlanders being rude and unmannered in the way that "new money" is and the language difference didn't help. HK losing its unique position as an entry into the mainland and its subsequent economic power dropping on the global scale along with leftover british bullshit like the horrible housing market and getting the same "market good!" education most of the west did is a big problem.

a government program to seize and develop land would help a lot... but i wonder how it would be perceived (by HKers)

at least among moderately well-off people it is really loving prevalent. e.g. in 2015 there was a big protest by the localist groups because the government had made noises about giving residency to a 12-year-old mainlander who'd been living in the city undocumented since he was 3 (the Siu Yau-wai case), they wanted him to be deported and eventually he was forced to leave the city. stuff calling mainlanders bugs and locusts, anchor baby scares and the like were pretty normal since way before occupy central. my personal experience was that the last time I was in HK in 2017-18 one of literally the first things I saw after leaving the airport was a guy screaming at someone calling him a mainlander oval office, and when I was still involved in anti-china stuff at that time I had dinners with activists who would call mainlanders monkeys, dirty and uncivilised etc

Zohar
Jul 14, 2013

Good kitty

Ardennes posted:

That said, in many ways I don’t think it is that different than parts of the West where xenophobia of an other (who happens in this case to be the same ethnicity in the same nation) is stirred up to distract from serious issues (housing) in society for the benefit of the local elite.

The housing crisis in HK long preceded more Mainlanders coming over and it is why Beijing should eventually force the housing policies they are conducting on the mainland on to HK now that the situation is generally under their control. I get that the situation at the moment is still a bit rocky and there will be resistance even from loyal oligarchs, but it is really the only way to permanently nip localism in the bud.

kind of agree, back in 2014 I helped write a white paper, probably now long disappeared into the ether, which recommended that HK activists would probably accomplish more by toning down anti-mainlander stuff and pitching political reform as part of a broader set of social and economic policies which could complement Xi's political direction. I was pretty much told in response that China will never touch HK's economy, mainlanders are too evil/stupid for this to work etc. I think the events since then more or less vindicated what I thought then -- localists went all-in on anti-China stuff, accomplished exactly zero of their political demands and Xi is moving ahead with economic reforms without them. I think there's more to it than just external enemies being easier to talk about than structural stuff, the sense of superiority to other Chinese people is v deeply engrained in HK culture and a lot of the political deterioration in HK came from anxiety at losing this status.

Zohar
Jul 14, 2013

Good kitty

Literally the second paragraph

"Baerbock also said she won't attend the Beijing Winter Olympics in February. Yet she made clear that her decision was personal and not the official line of the German government, and that German foreign ministers usually don't attend Olympic games."

Zohar
Jul 14, 2013

Good kitty
Germany's foreign policy line is set in the chancellor's office and not the foreign ministry, so I wouldn't put too much weight on baerbock popping off -- scholtz doesn't seem to want to rock the boat on China. merkel already had a similar thing with maas to some extent.

also I don't think the diplomatic boycott is going to expand much, if they were able to add more countries to make the tiny turnout less embarrassing they would've done it by now. in the EU even the czechs with a more or less overtly anti-china govt have refused to join. Japan was the best shot for another big participants and even they ended up just hedging their bets.

Zohar
Jul 14, 2013

Good kitty

Ardennes posted:

Baerbock is going to continually push Scholtz in a more and more awkward position and she knows that the government depend on Green votes.

in principle yeah but foreign policy is also generally the single least democratic part of executive decision-making pretty much everywhere in the west and there are a lot of outcomes short of germany becoming a state department puppet

Zohar
Jul 14, 2013

Good kitty

dead gay comedy forums posted:

going by that, it seems to me that the cpc is actually somewhat lenient to hong kong than appears otherwise to the west

a lot of mainland chinese hate hkers and it's easy to understand why if you think about it from their perspective -- it's a city that's supposedly in your country but still talked about by white people as if it's a colony, which you need an internal visa to visit and, when you do, you'll get treated like poo poo by people calling you bugs and throwing ww2-era racial slurs around. so in that sense the government response is sort of limited compared to what a lot of mainlanders would want, which would be to just abolish all its special privileges and expropriate the tycoons. also why it was a lol that there were people in 2019 who thought the protests had any chance of spreading to the rest of China.

it's lenient when you compare it to mainstream public opinion in China. and going off what I said earlier about how westerners seem to never consider that tiananmen happened under Deng while they complain that Xi isn't like Deng, well, it's notable that he didn't crack down in HK in the way Deng probably would have

Zohar
Jul 14, 2013

Good kitty

Mirello posted:

lol @ this post doing huge numbers on reddit:https://old.reddit.com/r/pics/comments/rsf7k0/aftermath_of_when_the_tanks_left/

it works great. such devastation and destruction! evil ccp murdered so many civilians! except if you zoom in you see all the "bodies" are actually just bicycles, and theres many alive and uninjured people in the picture. the vast majority of people seeing it just upvote or comment without actually looking closely. their phones show tiny thumbnails. propaganda gets lazier and lazier. in a just world, this would be taken down for "misinformation"

I saw a post of a porn video claiming it was from an Uyghur concentration camp get hundreds of upvotes on Reddit one time and people pointing it out were called CCP shills lol

Zohar
Jul 14, 2013

Good kitty

Atrocious Joe posted:

https://twitter.com/ForeignAffairs/status/1477179213463621635?s=20

edit: this article is a year old, why are they reposting it now

Cai xia is interesting in that when you've read around it's q obvious that all the stuff she writes is just by-the-numbers invocation of whatever the current favoured China watcher memes are, no matter how incoherent or implausible they are when brought together. there's literally nothing in it, even the anecdotes, which you can't also find in generic natsec China scare books with red dragon covers.

The fact that that's the best a supposed insider can bring to the table really helps demonstrate a. the China grift in general and b. how little knowledge of China anyone in western policy circles actually now has in the 2020s (the obliteration of the US intel network didn't help!)

Zohar
Jul 14, 2013

Good kitty

Zedhe Khoja posted:

Western policy circles have rarely had a grasp on any of the regions they've meddled in. A group of scholars figured out in the 2010s that the American government generally, and the CIA specifically, had no repository of Taliban primary sources (newspapers legal rulings memoirs poetry etc) despite their wide availability within Afghanistan, and not a single one of the former agents and "Taliban experts" they interviewed had ever read any.

yeah you have a point. I do think the situation with china is particularly bad, there's definitely been a generational change when you compare people like Chas Freeman (who worked for Nixon) with the Matt Pottinger types ruling the roost today who are basically morons

Zohar
Jul 14, 2013

Good kitty

Dan wang is a mixed bag imo but his yearly letters are still leagues ahead of anything you'll see in the economist or whatever so they're worth reading through.

some of my gripes:

the dead hand of socialist Beijing vs. liberal free-thinking Shanghai/Guangdong stuff -- "Shanghai and Shenzhen are creating wealth and leisure; Beijing is trying to lift their gaze towards its banner of utopia" etc. -- is to a large extent just a lazy stereotype, and the Beijing/DC comparison is off the mark -- DC isn't a combo political / manufacturing / high tech centre like the Beijing area is, it was never intended to be and doesn't have the feedback effects of Beijing where government administrators are directly in touch with industry and tech on a day-to-day basis.

just based on personal experience the contrast between liberal southerners and authoritarian northerners seems to have been scrambled to a large extent -- a lot of the hardcore nationalists I've spoken to are in places like Zhejiang and Guangdong, most of the pro-west liberal types are from Beijing. also don't think the Pearl River area and shanghai can be conflated in the way he does. Shanghai is a financial centre, not of real production in the way Shenzhen is, and Shanghai's cultural scene is also increasingly financialised much like HK's has been. there are contrasts between Beijing, Shanghai and SZ/the Delta which are worth drawing out but they don't really correspond to the picture that Wang sketches here.

his comments about global hostility to china betray a sort of liberal status anxiety I think -- china psychosis is primarily an anglo thing, to a lesser extent a western and european thing, and barely visible in the global south. plenty of people in SE Asia don't like china, eg, but the reasons are generally grounded in specific long-running political issues rather than the general anxiety and anger in the anglophone world. in other places that never feature in the rising hostility to China stories (like the Arab world according to polls from last year) China's public image remains much better than the West's. I don't think at all that "the party-state really seems to believe that the rest of the world must love China because of its economic growth". my impression is instead that most of the people dealing with stuff think with varying degrees of explicitness that Anglos will ultimately hate a China that challenges their status no matter what and it's better to be feared than seen with contempt. from that perspective there are other people that China can focus on being "lovable" to.

I generally disagree with the culture stuff. again, I think his comments there say more about his own personal commitments and the sorts of people he knows than the country itself -- a kind of River Elegy perspective that if it's not churning out cultural products that specifically appeal to the West (or just America) then it must be "stagnant". if it's just a complaint about China lacking a global cultural industrial policy with big economic rewards like south korea's that's one thing, but in the context of the huge ferment of writing on the chinese internet, the booming art scenes in beijing xiamen etc.. talking about "cultural stunting" or how the government "ground down the country’s creative capacity" just seems insulting and ignorant. and if we are reducing culture to profit, the fact that something obvious but foreign to the boomer-liberal mindset like Genshin Impact doesn't feature on the list of successful Chinese cultural products seems quite telling

Zohar
Jul 14, 2013

Good kitty

the stilted english name + chinese surname combo is a cherished hk tradition

Zohar
Jul 14, 2013

Good kitty
:hmmyes:
https://twitter.com/RobertSkvarla/status/1495374284323278851?s=20&t=6TSgBHvVQ3aEAucXprU8WA

Zohar
Jul 14, 2013

Good kitty
not sure if it was mentioned here at the time but the OSCE report for the 18th says Ukrainian police denied them access to the kindergarten that was shelled and they couldn’t determine the origin of the munition

Zohar
Jul 14, 2013

Good kitty
met someone from a rich chinese family who was complaining about how terrible the mainland is now and her go to example was that the government had opened some places where they give food to poor people

Zohar
Jul 14, 2013

Good kitty

must be serious if he's meeting the real power brokers

Zohar
Jul 14, 2013

Good kitty

Votskomit posted:

I know someone who works in Hong Kong sometimes (can you guess his profession?) And he says the whites there tell him they're no longer having political discussions because they're afraid of being informed on.

He said that The Economist claimed that the CCP sent 300k secret police from the mainland to infiltrate Hong Kong and inform against anyone critical of the mainland.

My suspicion is that the surveillance state just keeps a closer eye on foreigners with money, and this is the highest form of oppression a white person can experience

This kind of poo poo is near-100% white guy main character syndrome lol. my general rule of thumb having been far too near HK finance bro circles is that the more people act like their Every Word Is Monitored and they're dystopian sf protagonists or whatever the less likely they are to know what they're talking about

I still have a vivid memory of a fairly well placed economist in 2019, who has written for the FT, telling me in secret about how their HK government contacts had told them secretly that the PLA would be mowing down people in the street in a few days and everyone I know needs to leave HK immediately!! (nothing happened and they moved onto another china inside story grift)

Being around this kind of person drove me down an anti-china rabbit hole back in the day which happily I eventually got out of by talking to people in china instead

Zohar
Jul 14, 2013

Good kitty

skooma512 posted:

I was reading the Reuters story of the Tiktok ban vote today and one of the congressmen called China an adversary.

I'm still wondering why we just decided that they're definitely our enemy. They took over little specks of rock off their own shore. We still embargo Cuba because they violated the US sphere of influence generations ago, but Taiwan and unnamed sea mount tops are also American interests for some reason, at least Taiwan is somewhat comprehensible in that sense.

My theory is that the US would certainly like the world to remain unipolar, but also that a non-white country being the other pole is even less acceptable than usual. At least the Soviets were white.

The US is seemingly the only one making proclamations that it's going to be at war with China eventually. I posit it's for the same thing driving much of US history up to now: White supremacy. European powers competing with us is one thing, a non-white power? Completely unacceptable.

Biden has repeatedly said the US must be #1 forever and a Trump-era Pentagon memo explicitly stated that the key factor is China being the US's first non-white competitor so no need to speculate

Zohar
Jul 14, 2013

Good kitty

skooma512 posted:

Got a link to that memo?

Sorry, misremembered on two counts, it was the State Dept and a talk not a memo: https://www.newsweek.com/china-threat-state-department-race-caucasian-1413202

I confused it with this weird Pentagon memo about the "strategic consequences of Chinese racism": https://www.esd.whs.mil/Portals/54/...20%20201301.pdf

Zohar
Jul 14, 2013

Good kitty
Surprisingly decent (+ short) no-nonsense piece in Foreign Affairs debunking the western narrative about the Chinese economy: https://archive.is/T92lB

quote:

Several misconceptions undergird the pessimism about China’s economic potential. Take the widely held misconception that the Chinese economy’s progress in converging with the size of the U.S. economy has stalled. It is true that from 2021 to 2023, China’s GDP fell from 76 percent of U.S. GDP to 67 percent. Yet it is also true that by 2023, China’s GDP was 20 percent bigger than it had been in 2019, the eve of the global pandemic, while the United States’ was only 8 percent bigger.

This apparent paradox can be explained by two factors. First, over the last few years, inflation has been lower in China than it has been in the United States. Last year, China’s nominal GDP grew by 4.6 percent, less than the 5.2 percent that its GDP grew in real terms. In contrast, because of high inflation, U.S. nominal GDP in 2023 grew by 6.3 percent, while real GDP grew by only 2.5 percent.

Moreover, the U.S. Federal Reserve has raised interest rates by over five percentage points since March 2022, from 0.25 percent to 5.5 percent, making dollar-denominated assets more attractive to global investors and boosting the value of the dollar relative to alternative currencies. Meanwhile, China’s central bank cut its base interest rate from 3.70 percent to 3.45 percent. The growing gap between Chinese and U.S. interest rates reversed what had been a large inflow of foreign capital into China, ultimately depressing the value of the renminbi vis-à-vis the dollar by 10 percent. Converting a smaller nominal GDP to dollars at a weakened exchange rate results in a decline in the value of China’s GDP when measured in dollars relative to U.S. GDP.

But these two factors are likely to be transitory. U.S. interest rates are now declining relative to rates in China, reducing the incentive of investors to convert renminbi into dollar-denominated assets. As a result, the depreciation of the Chinese currency has begun to reverse. The International Monetary Fund forecasts that Chinese prices will pick up this year, which would boost China’s GDP measured in renminbi. Its nominal GDP measured in U.S. dollars will almost certainly resume converging toward that of the United States this year and is likely to surpass it in about a decade.

A second misconception is that household income, spending, and consumer confidence in China is weak. The data do not support this view. Last year, real per capita income rose by 6 percent, more than double the growth rate in 2022, when the country was in lockdown, and per capita consumption climbed by 9 percent. If consumer confidence were weak, households would curtail consumption, building up their savings instead. But Chinese households did just the opposite last year: consumption grew more than income, which is possible only if households reduced the share of their income going to savings.

China will likely continue to contribute about a third of the world’s economic growth while increasing its economic footprint.

A third misconception is that price deflation has become entrenched in China, putting the country on course toward recession. Yes, consumer prices rose only 0.2 percent last year, which gave rise to the fear that households would reduce consumption in anticipation of still lower prices—thereby reducing demand and slowing growth. This has not happened because core consumer prices (meaning those for goods and services besides food and energy) actually increased by 0.7 percent.

The prices of tools and raw materials used to produce other goods did fall in 2023, reflecting global declines in the price of energy and other internationally traded commodities as well as relatively weak demand in China for some industrial goods, potentially undermining the incentive for firms to invest in expanding their productive capacity. Rather than pump money into their businesses, the thinking went, companies would use their declining profits to pay down debt.But here, too, the very opposite came to pass: Chinese corporations ramped up borrowing, both in absolute terms and as a share of GDP. And investment in manufacturing, mining, utilities, and services increased. No recession appears on the horizon.

Another misconception concerns the potential for a collapse in property investment. These fears are not entirely misplaced; they are supported by data on housing starts, the number of new buildings on which construction has begun, which in 2023 was half of what it was in 2021. But one has to look at the context. In that same two-year period, real estate investment fell by only 20 percent, as developers allocated a greater share of such outlays to completing housing projects they had started in earlier years. Completions expanded to 7.8 billion square feet in 2023, eclipsing housing starts for the first time. It helped that government policy encouraged banks to lend specifically to housing projects that were almost finished; a general easing of such constraints on bank loans to property developers would have compounded the property glut.

Finally, there is the misconception that Chinese entrepreneurs are discouraged and moving their money out of the country. Undoubtedly, the government crackdown that began in late 2020 on large private companies, notably Alibaba, did not help matters. From the beginning of economic reform in 1978 through the mid-2010s, private investment in China grew more rapidly than investment by state-owned firms. By 2014, private investment comprised almost 60 percent of all investment—up from virtually zero percent in 1978. As private investment is generally more productive than that of state companies, its expanding share of total investment was critical to China’s rapid growth over this period. This trend went into reverse after 2014 when Xi Jinping, having just assumed the top leadership position, aggressively redirected resources to the state sector. The slowdown was modest at first, but by 2023, private investment accounted for only 50 percent of total investment. Xi had undermined investor confidence; entrepreneurs no longer saw the government as a dependable steward of the economy. So long as Xi is in power, runs a common argument, entrepreneurs will continue to hold back on investing in China, opting instead to funnel their wealth out of the country.

But here again, the pessimism is not supported by the data. First, almost all the decline in the private share of total investment after 2014 resulted from a correction in the property market, which is dominated by private companies. When real estate is excluded, private investment rose by almost 10 percent in 2023. Although some prominent Chinese entrepreneurs have left the country, more than 30 million private companies remain and continue to invest. Moreover, the number of family businesses, which are not officially classified as companies, expanded by 23 million in 2023, reaching a total of 124 million enterprises employing about 300 million people.

Zohar
Jul 14, 2013

Good kitty
The thing about the FT is that their head of data is a tech bro grifter who's done things like write an article claiming that he'd proven Spain fell behind on industrialisation because it didn't have an optimistic outlook based on Google books stats for the word "progress" in the 17th century, so it's incompetence as well as malice

Zohar
Jul 14, 2013

Good kitty

genuinely surprised this isn't real

Zohar
Jul 14, 2013

Good kitty
https://twitter.com/FT/status/1783415157135183955?t=QQxGthXyLvGkarJC7ROvRQ&s=19

in which the ft whines that Bytedance is doing terrifying oriental stuff like... encouraging employees to learn mandarin so they can work with chinese counterparts better

Adbot
ADBOT LOVES YOU

Zohar
Jul 14, 2013

Good kitty

Ardennes posted:

It is kind of a shame because there is plenty going on that is interesting both in the US and globally, but the thread is pretty chaotic, jammed with "big" personalities.

The UK/London is having somewhat of similar issue. The Elizabeth line did extend the range of the London metro but the HSR 2 was suppose to link housing in the north to London and it has already been so butchered it is somewhat pointless. I wouldn't be surprised if rents only climbed upwards.

Was looking for a place to rent in london (lol) last year and the main effect of the Elizabeth line was just to push up prices in the suburbs it touches to near city centre levels afaict

  • 1
  • 2
  • 3
  • 4
  • 5
  • Post
  • Reply