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Dapper_Swindler
Feb 14, 2012

Im glad my instant dislike in you has been validated again and again.

what? how? why?

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FizFashizzle
Mar 30, 2005







Dapper_Swindler posted:

what? how? why?

Someone there the new man in charge wants dead.

Al-Saqr
Nov 11, 2007

One Day I Will Return To Your Side.
The bigger question is why and if there's a functioning saudi arabian embassy in Sanaa three years into a war of annihilation in which the enemy has full control of Sanaa. Like, how does that happen and the embassy goes unmolested?

Rabble
Dec 3, 2005

Pillbug
We're going to war with Iran, right?

BIG HEADLINE
Jun 13, 2006

"Stand back, Ottawan ruffian, or face my lumens!"

Rabble posted:

We're going to war with Iran, right?

If it was going to happen, we'd be seeing a lot more signs of preparation that aren't happening (and which also can't be hidden). So we aren't...at least within the next 6-9 months.

Al-Saqr
Nov 11, 2007

One Day I Will Return To Your Side.
speaking of arrests, Jamal Khashoggi, the journalist who was forced into exile a few weeks ago, has started his own website, and publishes articles in english, while it's clear his self-imposed exile has freed him to be more critical, he still maintains a naivety and beleif in the saudi system:-

https://jamalkhashoggi.com/

Grouchio
Aug 31, 2014

We haven't been hearing terribly much from the European migrant crisis this year, have we?

Tree Bucket
Apr 1, 2016

R.I.P.idura leucophrys
I am trying to understand this war in Yemen. Does KSA have some kind of strategic goal they are failing hugely at here, or is it just to keep a bunch of spare heirs occupied, or what?
(I also was going to ask why Saudi Arabia hates Iran so drat much, but that may be way too big of a question...)

Human Grand Prix
Jan 24, 2013

by FactsAreUseless

Elyv posted:

Is it possible this is a statement from the Saudis intended to intimidate the Lebanese government to do something about Hizbullah or to do whatever else it is the Saudis want, similar to what happened with Qatar?

The Lebanese government is not stupid enough to fight Hezbollah.

Ardennes
May 12, 2002

Grouchio posted:

We haven't been hearing terribly much from the European migrant crisis this year, have we?

The EU has been bribin...paying Turkey essentially to keep it under control, and Erdogan is happy to use refugees as leverage. It is part of the reason there has been very little action on the part of the EU regarding Erdogan's obvious consolidation of power.

Also, yeah, Hezbollah is one of the strongest political/paramilitary forces in Lebanon and it is doubtful the Lebanonese army could suppress them if they wanted. Also, it would be literally civil war, one the Lebanese public as a whole has no interest in. It is also what is frustrating to Israel since there is little internal opposition to Hezbollah, but attacking Lebanon would bring in Iran/Syria and possibly Russia/Turkey.
(It also doesn't help that Hezbollah is one of the main parties of the ruling parliamentary coalition.)

Ardennes fucked around with this message at 02:56 on Nov 7, 2017

Saladin Rising
Nov 12, 2016

When there is no real hope we must
mint our own. If the coin be
counterfeit it may still be passed.

Lote posted:

Edit: I don’t know enough about the foreign politics in the Middle East right now to form an opinion about how dumb the Trump plan for the Middle East is. I assume this is bad. On a scale of smoldering proxy war to all out Middle East war with Israel running around with a hand grenade ala Anchorman, how bad is it?
The "Trump plan for the Middle East" is as follows:
1/2 "Whatever Mattis, the Pentagon, and the local military commanders say"
1/4 "Obama's plan, but with Obama's name scratched out and Trump's penciled in"
1/4 "Trump said something on Twitter"

1 and 2 have worked okay for the "blow up ISIS" strategy, #3 is the big issue. Thusfar, Trump/Trump's tweets played a big part in egging on Saudi Arabia to to blockade Qatar, and as you can see:

He hasn't stopped, if anything it's getting worse.

Squalid
Nov 4, 2008

Saladin Rising posted:

He hasn't stopped, if anything it's getting worse.

I I just remembered when Trump when bankrupt in the 1990s he had to sell his prized super-yacht to Prince Al-Waleed bin Talal at a loss. 100% he's been resentful ever since and is definitely gloating about the Prince's just come-upance to anyone within earshot

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kingdom_5KR

Duckbox
Sep 7, 2007

Saladin Rising posted:

The "Trump plan for the Middle East" is as follows:
1/2 "Whatever Mattis, the Pentagon, and the local military commanders say"
1/4 "Obama's plan, but with Obama's name scratched out and Trump's penciled in"
1/4 "Trump said something on Twitter"

1 and 2 have worked okay for the "blow up ISIS" strategy, #3 is the big issue. Thusfar, Trump/Trump's tweets played a big part in egging on Saudi Arabia to to blockade Qatar, and as you can see:

He hasn't stopped, if anything it's getting worse.

You forgot the part where he sells a shitload of weapons.

Cat Mattress
Jul 14, 2012

by Cyrano4747

Saladin Rising posted:

Raqqa is done, we're still supplying the SDF. I'm very curious to see if we continue supplying the SDF after ISIS no longer officially holds territory, since that would indicate a bit more of a long-term commitment.

Sputnik Turkiye though.

Count Roland posted:

I wonder how much of this was planned by that loving orb.

FTFY

Haystack
Jan 23, 2005





Duckbox posted:

You forgot the part where he sells a shitload of weapons.

That's covered under 1) and 2)

Elyv
Jun 14, 2013



Human Grand Prix posted:

The Lebanese government is not stupid enough to fight Hezbollah.

Doesn't mean the Saudis aren't too stupid and/or arrogant to ask for it.

Saladin Rising
Nov 12, 2016

When there is no real hope we must
mint our own. If the coin be
counterfeit it may still be passed.

Squalid posted:

I I just remembered when Trump when bankrupt in the 1990s he had to sell his prized super-yacht to Prince Al-Waleed bin Talal at a loss. 100% he's been resentful ever since and is definitely gloating about the Prince's just come-upance to anyone within earshot

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kingdom_5KR
We live in the stupidest timeline, so I'm just going to assume you're 100% right and that Trump is gloating out of spite.

Cat Mattress posted:

Sputnik Turkiye though.
Very true, the only reason I'm giving it any credibility is that it was an SDF guy giving an interview to Sputnik Turkiye. The SDF has done interviews with Kremlin mouthpieces before (the SDF's options for available news outlets to talk to is kinda limited), and the articles tend to be more reality-based when they're just repeating what the SDF person tells them. There's nothing in the article that really stands out as being unrealistic other than "infra-red guidance missiles" and I'm assuming that's just translation weirdness from however many languages the article went though before ending up in English.

Ramrod Hotshot
May 30, 2003

Squalid posted:

I I just remembered when Trump when bankrupt in the 1990s he had to sell his prized super-yacht to Prince Al-Waleed bin Talal at a loss. 100% he's been resentful ever since and is definitely gloating about the Prince's just come-upance to anyone within earshot

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kingdom_5KR

Wikipedia posted:

After a refit, Trump renamed it Trump Princess.

Because of course he did.

Relevant Tangent
Nov 18, 2016

Tangentially Relevant

BIG HEADLINE posted:

If it was going to happen, we'd be seeing a lot more signs of preparation that aren't happening (and which also can't be hidden). So we aren't...at least within the next 6-9 months.

You're assuming Trump won't just declare war via Twitter regardless of how ready we are.

Duckbox
Sep 7, 2007

Relevant Tangent posted:

You're assuming Trump won't just declare war via Twitter regardless of how ready we are.

That's fine though. No one actually takes anything he says at face value so everyone would just keep arguing about what he really meant until someone took the phone away.

It's one of the few perks of having a president who's pathologically incapable of leadership.

Crazycryodude
Aug 15, 2015

Lets get our X tons of Duranium back!

....Is that still a valid thing to jingoistically blow out of proportion?


Is Rojava still cool and good?

Duckbox
Sep 7, 2007

Crazycryodude posted:

Is Rojava still cool and good?

Cool? Yes. Good? Eeeeh.

Retarded Goatee
Feb 6, 2010
I spent :10bux: so that means I can be a cheapskate and post about posting instead of having some wit or spending any more on comedy avs for people. Which I'm also incapable of. Comedy.

Crazycryodude posted:

Is Rojava still cool and good?

They're a still living actor in one of the roughest neighborhoods in the world.

Are they complicit and/or responsible some really nasty stuff? Likely. Do they run regime-style hellscape prisons? No. Are they foreign takfiri firebrands currently hellbent on sectarian genocide? No. Take that as you will.

Duckbox
Sep 7, 2007

Retarded Goatee posted:

They're a still living actor in one of the roughest neighborhoods in the world.

Are they complicit and/or responsible some really nasty stuff? Likely. Do they run regime-style hellscape prisons? No. Are they foreign takfiri firebrands currently hellbent on sectarian genocide? No. Take that as you will.

Some of the PYD people are dedicated/dangerous PKK lifers from Iraq and Turkey. They're lurching toward a one-party state the Ocalan portraits are apparently loving everywhere. There's been conflict between Kurds and Arabs and allegations of Kurdish chauvanism and shameful collaboration with the Assad regime.

So they have problems and big ones, but I've never seen anything that made me say "welp, gently caress them forever" and I'm still willing to count them as the "good guys" in Syria even if I maintain my reservations.

steinrokkan
Apr 2, 2011



Soiled Meat
Has anything come out of the Qatar embargo?

Zudgemud
Mar 1, 2009
Grimey Drawer

steinrokkan posted:

Has anything come out of the Qatar embargo?

Loss of face for Saudi Arabia.

Toplowtech
Aug 31, 2004

steinrokkan posted:

Has anything come out of the Qatar embargo?
Like everything from Saudi Arabia this year: good news for Iran.

Godlessdonut
Sep 13, 2005

https://twitter.com/AJENews/status/927787425488924674

I'm glad that Sisi is so committed to the rule of law. Truly, a great man that everyone in the ME can look up to. I wonder what bootlicker he has lined up to be his totally legitimately elected successor.

Rigged Death Trap
Feb 13, 2012

BEEP BEEP BEEP BEEP

steinrokkan posted:

Has anything come out of the Qatar embargo?

Absolutely nothing.
The embargo is slowly loosening.


But youll never hear it announced.

Mixodorian
Jan 26, 2009
So how much longer before the Saudis finally make their move on their longtime destiny of destroying those drat dirty Irani dogs? Poster al-Saqr, do you live in the KSA? What's the word on the street there.

My Iranian in-laws are getting very agitated by all of this. The amount of times I heard soosmar-khor and taazi thrown around this weekend was lol.

Al-Saqr
Nov 11, 2007

One Day I Will Return To Your Side.

Mixodorian posted:

So how much longer before the Saudis finally make their move on their longtime destiny of destroying those drat dirty Irani dogs? Poster al-Saqr, do you live in the KSA? What's the word on the street there.

My Iranian in-laws are getting very agitated by all of this. The amount of times I heard soosmar-khor and taazi thrown around this weekend was lol.

Soon my friend the great ghazwa will begin and the sword of Saad bin Abi Waqqas will deliver the final blow to the Safavid/sassanid/rafidi/Khomeini hydra!! Just like the good old days at the battle of Nihawand!

*ululates wildly*

Anyways, but seriously saudi is never going to actually confront Iran head on unless they really have run out of options, right now they're busy doing reactionary moves against Iran in multiple theaters so who knows what might happen.

I don't know what those two Persian words you said mean, but looking it up on google it seems like it's some kind of racist slur, you should sit down with your in laws some time and tell them that's no good.

lollontee
Nov 4, 2014
Probation
Can't post for 10 years!

Duckbox posted:

Some of the PYD people are dedicated/dangerous PKK lifers from Iraq and Turkey. They're lurching toward a one-party state the Ocalan portraits are apparently loving everywhere. There's been conflict between Kurds and Arabs and allegations of Kurdish chauvanism and shameful collaboration with the Assad regime.

So they have problems and big ones, but I've never seen anything that made me say "welp, gently caress them forever" and I'm still willing to count them as the "good guys" in Syria even if I maintain my reservations.

Öcalan loving rocks and I would be lurching with them under that portrait.

Mixodorian
Jan 26, 2009

Al-Saqr posted:

Soon my friend the great ghazwa will begin and the sword of Saad bin Abi Waqqas will deliver the final blow to the Safavid/sassanid/rafidi/Khomeini hydra!! Just like the good old days at the battle of Nihawand!

*ululates wildly*

Anyways, but seriously saudi is never going to actually confront Iran head on unless they really have run out of options, right now they're busy doing reactionary moves against Iran in multiple theaters so who knows what might happen.

I don't know what those two Persian words you said mean, but looking it up on google it seems like it's some kind of racist slur, you should sit down with your in laws some time and tell them that's no good.

Yes, they are certainly racist terms. I'm Ghanaian/Irish-American so all I've ever heard about are those drat pesky Nigerians but that's kind of like squabbling sibling levels of xenophobia. My fiance, however, is from an Iranian family, and getting close to all of them has shown me a whole new level of sectarian/ethnic beef. I lived with Punjabis for several years and their contempt for Pakistanis is made to look tame by what I've been hearing from my in-laws and their relatives and friends.

My point is I've known them and their relatives for a long time and they weren't anywhere near this angry last year when Iranians were banned from making their Hajj. To see (on social media) people I know who live in Tehran so riled up is making me nervous about the situation over there.

So thanks for being a Saudi goon and not being freaked out, it makes me feel better. Though I feel like regardless of what the governments do, if the animosity gets too strong between two countries there's a certain point where conflict is bound to happen.

E: Also, I was supposed to make an Iran thread a while back but then I got depressed and stopped visiting this site for a while. If anyone has any ME politics related questions they wanna refer to old Iranian people or younger ones living in Tehran LMK.

Mixodorian fucked around with this message at 15:50 on Nov 7, 2017

Goon Danton
May 24, 2012

Don't forget to show my shitposts to the people. They're well worth seeing.

Is there a good summary of the Saudi leadership change / purges that could get me up to speed? If it explains their regional moves in more detail than my current understanding*, that's cool too, but not necessary.

*:supaburn:

Count Roland
Oct 6, 2013

Mixodorian posted:

Yes, they are certainly racist terms. I'm Ghanaian/Irish-American so all I've ever heard about are those drat pesky Nigerians but that's kind of like squabbling sibling levels of xenophobia. My fiance, however, is from an Iranian family, and getting close to all of them has shown me a whole new level of sectarian/ethnic beef. I lived with Punjabis for several years and their contempt for Pakistanis is made to look tame by what I've been hearing from my in-laws and their relatives and friends.

My point is I've known them and their relatives for a long time and they weren't anywhere near this angry last year when Iranians were banned from making their Hajj. To see (on social media) people I know who live in Tehran so riled up is making me nervous about the situation over there.

So thanks for being a Saudi goon and not being freaked out, it makes me feel better. Though I feel like regardless of what the governments do, if the animosity gets too strong between two countries there's a certain point where conflict is bound to happen.

E: Also, I was supposed to make an Iran thread a while back but then I got depressed and stopped visiting this site for a while. If anyone has any ME politics related questions they wanna refer to old Iranian people or younger ones living in Tehran LMK.

Ok.

These old Iranians-- how do they feel about Iran's allies/proxies in the region? Assad, Hezbollah, PMUs, Houthis? Do they like these arrangements or no?

Mixodorian
Jan 26, 2009

Goon Danton posted:

Is there a good summary of the Saudi leadership change / purges that could get me up to speed? If it explains their regional moves in more detail than my current understanding*, that's cool too, but not necessary.

*:supaburn:

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/middle-east/saudi-arabia-arrests-princes-ministers-in-sweeping-purge/articleshow/61514144.cms

Beyond the arrests, two noteworthy Princes died in a helicopter crash, the son of the previous King as well as the son of the man who was Crown Prince before the line of succession was changed to make Muhammed bin Salman, the current Kings son, the new Crown Prince. Muhammed bin Salman is accusing the Iranians of giving the Houthis the missile they fired at King Khaled airport in Riyadh, and said that could be considered an act of war against the KSA by Iran. They are also further cracking down on Yemeni ports, which at this point probably means medical/food shipments getting cut off because pretty much everything else already was prior to this.

Oh, the Prime Minister of Lebanon resigned, broadcasting his announcement from Saudi Arabia. He said he did it because he was afraid the Iranians would assassinate him. I think that covers everything noteworthy in the past 2 days.

Brown Moses
Feb 22, 2002

https://twitter.com/SimaDiab/status/927921007536504832

Al-Saqr
Nov 11, 2007

One Day I Will Return To Your Side.

Carl Diggler?!

mediadave
Sep 8, 2011

Mixodorian posted:

E: Also, I was supposed to make an Iran thread a while back but then I got depressed and stopped visiting this site for a while. If anyone has any ME politics related questions they wanna refer to old Iranian people or younger ones living in Tehran LMK.

I also have Iranian in-laws , but they don't really talk (to me) about Iran or the middle east except to moan about family drama and the ownership of the carpet factory (yep...)

Oh, and that Arabs are uncivilised camel herders who will surely learn their rightful place and did you know the whole Middle East used to be part of the glorious Persian Empire.


lol

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Mixodorian
Jan 26, 2009

Count Roland posted:

Ok.

These old Iranians-- how do they feel about Iran's allies/proxies in the region? Assad, Hezbollah, PMUs, Houthis? Do they like these arrangements or no?

Just as a precursor, my fiance's parents have been in the country for several decades and are non-practicing, if they're still religious at all. They were very excited that Rouhani was re elected over Raisi and that his re election was a show of resistance to the fundamentalists still controlling the Iranian state (I don't think Rouhani is THAT much of a reformer, but that was the impression Iranians had of the election as far as I can tell). I'll go in order.

Assad: The United States should've gotten involved and forced Assad to peacefully give up power, but now the sunni islamists will take power if Assad is deposed so he needs to stay in power until Iran can clean out the islamists. They also think that the story of Assad just randomly opening fire on protestors is unlikely and that they head from Moji back in Iran that there were Sunnis releasing jihadis from Syrian jails and that's how the whole conflict really started, or w/e.

Hezbollah: I'm assuming you're just curious what they think about their recent actions in regards to Syria. It is, like with Assad, something to the effect of "they're overdoing it and they're brutal people, but if they aren't forceful against the islamists nothing will change"

For the Kurds in general, they have a high opinion of them. It seems like Persian Iranians in general have a high opinion of the Kurds. I have no idea if this is genuine or if it's more like a Donald Trump "I love the blacks" type thing considering what the post 79 government did to Iranian Kurds with no outcry from the rest of the Iranian public.

Houthis they think are great but I also think they know as much about them as I do which is not a ton.

I'm sure these are all that types of views you imagined. If you have any specific questions I'd be happy to ask them around dinner time tonight in EST.

I think the most unique factor I've seen with Iranians, at least with the Iranians in my life, is that they feel very unfairly hated. That they were on the travel ban but Pakistan wasn't, the hate they hate they get from the rest of the Muslim world with few exceptions, and the fact that their country is a theocratic state based on a religion their Persian ancestors (which they're extremely proud of) were brutally forced onto. Obviously I'm only working off anecdotes here, but Iranians do seem to be in a uniquely unfortunate position.

Hope some of that was useful info. I am late on my coffee so apologies for it not being succinct.

mediadave posted:

I also have Iranian in-laws , but they don't really talk (to me) about Iran or the middle east except to moan about family drama and the ownership of the carpet factory (yep...)

Oh, and that Arabs are uncivilised camel herders who will surely learn their rightful place and did you know the whole Middle East used to be part of the glorious Persian Empire.


lol

Lol gotta have that family drama. At least your father in law isn't constantly showing off his beshkan skills to your side of the family.

Mixodorian fucked around with this message at 17:10 on Nov 7, 2017

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