Middle East Thread: Clarissa Explains the Fall

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Debate & Discussion > Middle East Thread: Clarissa Explains the Fall

guidoanselmi: Feb 6, 2008; I thought my ideas were so clear. I wanted to make an honest post. No lies whatsoever.

Even in the old thread did anyone post Al-Hariri's resignation as a part of the KSA funtime?

quote:

BEIRUT (Reuters) - Lebanon's president appealed for national unity on Monday after Prime Minister Saad al-Hariri quit in a broadcast from Saudi Arabia, collapsing the coalition government and plunging the country into political crisis.

His shock resignation exposed Lebanon again to the sharp end of the struggle for Middle East dominance between Sunni Muslim Saudi Arabia and Shi'ite Muslim Iran, which has also wrought upheaval in Syria, Iraq, Yemen and Bahrain.

In a televised speech on Saturday, Hariri shocked even his close aides by resigning. Lebanon's most influential Sunni politician, Hariri said he feared an assassination plot against him, accusing Iran and its Lebanese ally Hezbollah, which was part of his coalition, of breeding strife in the Arab world.

The government was painstakingly devised to group key sectarian factions including the Iran-backed, Shi'ite Hezbollah. Its leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah accused Saudi Arabia of forcing Hariri to go and said there were "legitimate questions" over whether he had been detained in the kingdom.

Aides to Hariri, whose family made their fortune in the Saudi construction industry, have strongly denied such claims.

Interior Minister Nohad Machnouk, a senior member of Hariri's political party, said he was under the impression the premier would return to Beirut within days.

A meeting between Saudi King Salman and Hariri in Riyadh on Monday proved "rumors" wrong, he said - an apparent reference to speculation that Hariri was detained or forced to quit.

Speculation in Lebanon over Hariri's status bubbled as Saudi Arabia underwent an anti-corruption purge in which royals, ministers and investors have been arrested as the putative next king tightens his grip on power.

Lebanese President Michel Aoun held a meeting with ministers and top security officials at Baabda palace, telling them that political leaders had been responsive to calls for calm.

"He stressed that security, economic, financial, and political stability is a red line," Justice Minister Salim Jreissati said after the meeting.

Aoun will take no steps to decide on whether to accept the resignation before Hariri returns from abroad, said Jreissati, who is politically aligned with Hezbollah.

"The president is waiting for Hariri's return to hear from him personally," he said. "This indicates a sovereign vision... and that the resignation must be voluntary in every sense."

https://www.usnews.com/news/world/a...ectarian-groups

# ¿ Nov 6, 2017 18:41

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# ¿ May 11, 2024 12:20

guidoanselmi: Feb 6, 2008; I thought my ideas were so clear. I wanted to make an honest post. No lies whatsoever.

Elyv posted:

Is it possible this is a statement from the Saudis intended to intimidate the Lebanese government to do something about Hizbullah or to do whatever else it is the Saudis want, similar to what happened with Qatar?

I was dubious of this yesterday, despite the circumstances of Hariri's resignation, but not really anymore.

Between Yemen, Qatar, and this I don't know what credibility MBS thinks he has internationally. (I guess it doesn't matter...)

# ¿ Nov 6, 2017 23:41

guidoanselmi: Feb 6, 2008; I thought my ideas were so clear. I wanted to make an honest post. No lies whatsoever.

Al-Saqr posted:

1. Iran is not a benevolent force in the region, they are every bit as murderous and oppressive through their proxies as any other fascist movement.

This isn't inherent in "Iranianess" but is a result of a government with a siege mentality that has expanded its influence to protect itself. The origin of its external support of proxies came from legitimate issues in the sovereignty of Shias in Lebanon & Iraq under Saddam. This view has been dramatically altered by US invasions to the east & west, success in Lebanon, and the correct perception that an Israeli-Saudi axis has emerged post-2006. So none of this is to say that Iran would not have continued to support proxies if they weren't under constant threat of war, but the extent of the support would have been different.

Regardless, the distinguishing features that in my mind leaves Iran an exception is the decaying grip of hardliners as they die off in Iran as the middle class grows (slowly, thanks to sanctions) & liberal youth age.

V this was coming sooner or later. Caspian Report predicted it with good reason

guidoanselmi fucked around with this message at 20:56 on Nov 8, 2017

# ¿ Nov 8, 2017 20:52

guidoanselmi: Feb 6, 2008; I thought my ideas were so clear. I wanted to make an honest post. No lies whatsoever.

CeeJee posted:

The leader of https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arab_Struggle_Movement_for_the_Liberation_of_Ahwaz was assassinated today in The Hague, was this group anywhere on the radar of anyone to get such a high profile hit ordered ?

Iran. They have a long history of assassinations abroad. That said, I'm not finding anything on this story. Any Dutch links?

Tangentially related but an interesting person for those who don't know him or his story: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dawud_Salahuddin

# ¿ Nov 8, 2017 22:21

guidoanselmi: Feb 6, 2008; I thought my ideas were so clear. I wanted to make an honest post. No lies whatsoever.

khwarezm posted:

You know, I've seen this sentiment a lot, but I can't say I've seen particularly compelling evidence that Iran is just brimming with these nice liberal young people who'll turn the country around when the old guard die and make it a Secular, Liberal society in stark contrast to the religious despots in the Gulf.

This is a meaningful concern that doesn't have any satisfying answers. I can point to the general posture of Khomenei to allow for more political dissent post-Arab Spring, the election of Rouhani showing that the old attitude of boycott is not effective in bringing change, increasing civil programs, & the very nature of dying of the old guard will necessitate questioning of how orthodoxy will continue. For me, it's a general trend in attitude I've personally encountered in what people feel as they come to the US. (I'm Iranian-American and meet a lot of grad students coming from Iran.)

So I agree there's no compelling evidence but the indications of change give me enough optimism.

quote:

I think people in the west hear about things like the Green movement and assume that represents the whole or a significant portion of the country when that's probably not really true. Iran is still an Islamic Republic that, among other things, has the highest per capita execution rate in the world and will execute people under 18 for such awful crimes as adultery and blasphemy.

khwarezm posted:

Having an execution rate that high discredits the idea that it's much of a Liberal culture, in my view. Even within the context of the Middle East places like Egypt, which is probably a far worse country to live in right now than Iran, doesn't have such a high rate of officially conducted executions.

Most executions, right or wrong, are directly tied to the drug war while there have been significant efforts to decriminalize drug use. I think it's unfair to point to the very high execution rate without acknowledging the vast majority of executions are in response to Iran's largest and most persistent societal crisis.

Like any drug war, there's no doubt the government plays both sides of the war to the advantage of some in the government - but that's still not unique for Iran.

# ¿ Nov 9, 2017 20:03

guidoanselmi: Feb 6, 2008; I thought my ideas were so clear. I wanted to make an honest post. No lies whatsoever.

Sisi isn't keen on KSA airstrikes in Lebanon or Iran. I imagine there's a limit to GCC acceptance of KSA hegemony, and this might be approaching it. I don't know how much of a sweeter deal can be brokered to get others on board, though I'm guessing it would require explicit US assurances.

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-egypt-sisi/egypts-president-backs-saudi-purge-urges-de-escalation-with-iran-idUSKBN1D833X

guidoanselmi fucked around with this message at 23:39 on Nov 9, 2017

# ¿ Nov 9, 2017 23:37

guidoanselmi: Feb 6, 2008; I thought my ideas were so clear. I wanted to make an honest post. No lies whatsoever.

Dapper_Swindler posted:

well.

judging from this, it seems likely.

I watched it twice to make sure his eyes weren't just trained on the interviewer - and sure enough he's looking to her right at the dude who appeared. It's hard to not see that he's in distress, regardless, even if the dude is just someone in the production crew.

e:

Throatwarbler posted:

So the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia has just kidnaped a foreign head of state and forced him to appear on TV and pretend nothing happened like some kind of Austin Powers skit. This is a thing now.

And besides some French claims about sovereignty, I don't think any western powers have said fuckall. I wonder if this had to do with the Israeli embassies lobbying for KSA to have other nations look the other way. http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2017/11/israel-instructs-diplomats-support-saudis-cable-171110134749905.html

Not that I'm surprised but I'm pretty disappointed in Europe/EU.

guidoanselmi fucked around with this message at 00:52 on Nov 13, 2017

# ¿ Nov 13, 2017 00:49

guidoanselmi: Feb 6, 2008; I thought my ideas were so clear. I wanted to make an honest post. No lies whatsoever.

Atlantic has been pretty hawkish on Iran on most pieces I've read there. Maybe that's just Jeff Goldberg.

# ¿ Nov 13, 2017 04:28

guidoanselmi: Feb 6, 2008; I thought my ideas were so clear. I wanted to make an honest post. No lies whatsoever.

I don't expect people to really push for war anywhere on behalf of KSA, if even because their leader is untested and it's not clear they will hold up commitments. If Europe can get some level of commitment from Iran about not destabilizing X places, the risks will be greater than the upside. Iran/Hez messaging has been on point & France is keen on making sure Lebanon remains stable as it can be, so I think we're seeing this happen.

# ¿ Nov 13, 2017 05:51

guidoanselmi: Feb 6, 2008; I thought my ideas were so clear. I wanted to make an honest post. No lies whatsoever.

Brown Moses posted:

Here's the images the Russian MoD claim they really meant to share:

https://twitter.com/mod_russia/status/930472894454517760

Are these really from a video game? Bad compression/resolution, but bad resolution is not unreasonable for IR cameras.

Wouldn't be surprised either way:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cQuglSbXeVo&t=36s

e: ok I saw your tweet

https://twitter.com/EliotHiggins/status/930382903787343872/photo/1

guidoanselmi fucked around with this message at 21:21 on Nov 14, 2017

# ¿ Nov 14, 2017 21:17

guidoanselmi: Feb 6, 2008; I thought my ideas were so clear. I wanted to make an honest post. No lies whatsoever.

icantfindaname posted:

can't wait for full-tilt pro-Saudi positions to be the new normal among centrist libs in the united states

"He's a reformer, women can drive now, it's been about time some one changed things there."

# ¿ Nov 17, 2017 07:23

guidoanselmi: Feb 6, 2008; I thought my ideas were so clear. I wanted to make an honest post. No lies whatsoever.

icantfindaname posted:

Well, that was before they betrayed the American Empire. The House of Saud has been a trusty stooge of American geopolitical hegemony for the last 80 years

Well, oil embargo is an exception.

But look at all the progress they've made since in making peace with Israel!

# ¿ Nov 17, 2017 18:26

guidoanselmi: Feb 6, 2008; I thought my ideas were so clear. I wanted to make an honest post. No lies whatsoever.

SimonCat posted:

When are we going to start prosecuting these murderous drones?

We already have

# ¿ Nov 17, 2017 20:27

guidoanselmi: Feb 6, 2008; I thought my ideas were so clear. I wanted to make an honest post. No lies whatsoever.

Count Roland posted:

After the USSR fell, some people thought this order would basically prevail forever, since it was so clearly superior. Nobody thinks that anymore.

That anyone ever took Francis Fukuyama seriously at any point is mind boggling to me.

Count Roland posted:

Big parade in Lebanon tomorrow, with Hariri attending. Watch it get bombed.

The reason Hariri was a ghost in his interview was that he was told he was going to return and die in a false flag :banjo:

guidoanselmi fucked around with this message at 06:13 on Nov 22, 2017

# ¿ Nov 22, 2017 06:10

guidoanselmi: Feb 6, 2008; I thought my ideas were so clear. I wanted to make an honest post. No lies whatsoever.

Al-Saqr posted:

Once again, arab fascists lose every strategic challenge place it, and once again it is their Sudanese, Pakistani, and Bangladeshi mercenaries who will pay the highest price,

ftfy.

TBH I wonder if articles like the FP one make it up to MBS and just egg him on more.

Saladin Rising posted:

Probable reasoning:
https://www.reddit.com/r/syriancivilwar/comments/7erg1w/syrian_interior_ministry_bans_religious_rituals/

but martyrdom is a blessing :angel:

# ¿ Nov 22, 2017 20:34

guidoanselmi: Feb 6, 2008; I thought my ideas were so clear. I wanted to make an honest post. No lies whatsoever.

Bishounen Bonanza posted:

"Dominate" means like what we did to Iraq and Afganistan, which is obvious from the context.

I think they were implying it was a course of action that was considered. I imagine things might have played closer to this if Clinton were SecState through '14.

Brother Friendship posted:

We can't just retreat from the region as shown by Obama's withdrawal from Iraq that was followed by an immediate retrenchment and neither can we dictate the course of the region through force of arms. The best we can do is to use our influence to unwind our position in the Middle East in a way that might produce peace and stability going forward.

Imagine if there were joint investment with Iran, Syria, Iraq, etc to invest in sectors beyond energy rather than spending money on war.

e: to be clear, ofc that's never happening. just imagining a different world

guidoanselmi fucked around with this message at 04:36 on Nov 23, 2017

# ¿ Nov 23, 2017 03:24

guidoanselmi: Feb 6, 2008; I thought my ideas were so clear. I wanted to make an honest post. No lies whatsoever.

Al-Saqr posted:

I wish thomas friedman would just die already, he's such an irredeemable piece of poo poo hack. gently caress that guy.

same. never forget: https://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=3076512

speaking of MBS...

Daily Mail posted:

EXCLUSIVE: 'American mercenaries are torturing' Saudi elite rounded up by new crown prince - and billionaire Prince Alwaleed was hung upside down 'just to send a message'

Saudi princes and billionaire businessmen arrested in a power grab earlier this month are being strung up by their feet and beaten by American private security contractors, a source in the country tells DailyMail.com.

The group of the country's most powerful figures were arrested in a crackdown ordered by Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman three weeks ago as he ordered the detention of at least 11 fellow princes and hundreds of businessmen and government officials over claims of corruption.

Just last month, the Crown Prince vowed to restore 'moderate, open Islam' in the kingdom and relaxed a number of its ultra-conservative rules, including lifting a ban on women driving.

DailyMail.com can disclose that the arrests have been followed by 'interrogations' which a source said were being carried out by 'American mercenaries' brought in to work for the 32-year-old crown prince, who is now the kingdom's most powerful figure.

'They are beating them, torturing them, slapping them, insulting them. They want to break them down,' the source told DailyMail.com.

'Blackwater' has been named by DailyMail.com's source as the firm involved, and the claim of its presence in Saudi Arabia has also been made on Arabic social media, and by Lebanon's president.

The firm's successor, Academi, strongly denies even being in Saudi Arabia and says it does not engage in torture, which it is illegal for any U.S. citizen to commit anywhere in the world.

The Saudi crown prince, according to the source, has also confiscated more than $194 billion from the bank accounts and seized assets of those arrested.

The source said that in the febrile atmosphere in the kingdom, Prince Mohammed has bypassed the normal security forces in keeping the princes and other billionaires at the Ritz Carlton hotel in Riyadh.

'All the guards in charge are private security because MBS (Mohammed Bin Salman) doesn't want Saudi officers there who have been saluting those detainees all their lives,' said the source, who asked to remain anonymous.

'Outside the hotels where they are being detained you see the armored vehicles of the Saudi special forces. But inside, it's a private security company.

'They've transferred all the guys from Abu Dhabi. Now they are in charge of everything,' said the source.

The source said that Salman, often referred to by his initials MBS, is conducting some of the interrogations himself.

'When it's something big he asks them questions,' the source said.

'He speaks to them very nicely in the interrogation, and then he leaves the room, and the mercenaries go in. The prisoners are slapped, insulted, hung up, tortured.'

The source says the crown prince is desperate to assert his authority through fear and wants to uncover an alleged network of foreign officials who have taken bribes from Saudi princes.

The source said that the name 'Blackwater' is being circulated as providing the mercenaries.

The controversial private security company, however, no longer exists under that name and is now Academi.

A spokesperson for Constellis, Academi's parent company, denied the claims.

The spokesperson told DailyMail.com that it has no presence in Saudi Arabia and does not carry out interrogations.

'Constellis through Academi does not now or have we ever provided interrogative services,' they said.

'We do not provide security services in KSA (Kingdom of Saudi Arabia), we have no contact or connection with any government official or private party regarding this allegation.'

When asked if Academi workers were involved in any kind of violence during these interrogations, the spokesperson said: 'No. Academi has no presence in KSA. We do not have interrogators, nor do we provide any interrogators, advisors or other similar services.'

They added: 'Academi does not participate in interrogative services for any government or private customer. Academi has a zero tolerance policy for violence. We operate legally, morally, ethically and in compliance with local and US laws.'

The name Blackwater, however, has previously surfaced in the Middle East in the wake of the round-up.

The Lebanese President tweeted that the country's former prime minister Saad Hariri was being detained in Riyadh by Blackwater guards, but later deleted the tweet.

'Lebanese authorities have unconfirmed information that the Blackwater firm is guarding Hariri and his family - not official Saudi security forces,' Michel Aoun, the President of Lebanon, tweeted last Wednesday.

A high-profile Saudi twitter account, @ Ahdjadid, which posts what is said to be inside information, also claimed Salman has brought in at least 150 'Blackwater' guards.

Saudi whistleblower Ahdjadid tweeted: 'The first group of Blackwater mercenaries arrived in Saudi Arabia a week after the toppling of bin Nayef [Salman's predecessor as crown prince].

'They were around 150 fighters. Bin Salman sent some of them to secure bin Nayef's place of detention and the rest he used for his own protection.'

The abuse claims were also raised recently in an article in the New York Times.

A doctor at a hospital in Riyadh and a US official told the Times that as many as 17 detainees had needed medical treatment.

But Fatimah Baeshen, spokeswoman for the Saudi Embassy in Washington, told the newspaper that the arrests were for 'white collar' crimes and that the country's public prosecutor was ensuring that the arrests are 'complying with the relevant laws and regulations'.

Among those arrested on allegations of corruption is Prince Alwaleed Bin Talal, the Saudi King's nephew who is worth more than $17bn according to Forbes, and owns stakes in Twitter, Lyft and Citigroup.

DailyMail.com's source claims the crown prince lulled Alwaleed into a false sense of security, inviting him to a meeting at his Al Yamamah palace, then sent officers to arrest him the night before the meeting.

'Suddenly at 2.45am all his guards were disarmed, the royal guards of MBS storm in,' said the source.

'He's dragged from his own bedroom in his pajamas, handcuffed, put in the back of an SUV, and interrogated like a criminal.

'They hung them upside down, just to send a message.

'They told them that "we've made your charges public, the world knows that you've been arrested on these charges."'

After the arrests, a picture was given to DailyMail.com of the Saudi royals sleeping on thin mattresses in the ballroom of the five star Ritz Carlton Hotel in Riyadh.

A US State Department source told the New York Times Salman was 'behaving recklessly without sufficient consideration to the likely consequences of his behavior, and that has the potential to damage US interests.'

However, the arrests drew praise from President Donald Trump, who tweeted that he had 'great confidence in King Salman and the crown prince of Saudi Arabia' after the corruption crackdown earlier this month.

Torture by a US citizen abroad has only been prosecuted in America once.

In 2008 the Boston-born son of former Liberian President Charles Taylor was found guilty by a US court of horrific torture.

The jury in Miami found Charles 'Chuckie' Taylor Jr. guilty on all eight counts brought against him, including allegations he and his cohorts tortured victims in Liberia by applying electric shocks to their genitals, burning them with hot irons and melting plastic and rubbing salt in their open wounds.

At the time Sigal Mandelker, the then deputy assistant attorney general with the crime division of the U.S. Department of Justice, said: 'It sends a very powerful message to human rights violators worldwide that they are not welcome here.'

Taylor was arrested at Miami International Airport in 2006 and pleaded guilty to a charge of lying about his father's identity on a passport application.

He was later indicted for torturing victims when he was the commander of a paramilitary security force called the Antiterrorist Unit - known as the 'Demon Forces' - that protected the elder Taylor while he was president of Liberia.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5108651/American-mercenaries-torturing-Saudi-princes.html

fuckin lol

# ¿ Nov 24, 2017 06:17

guidoanselmi: Feb 6, 2008; I thought my ideas were so clear. I wanted to make an honest post. No lies whatsoever.

Shageletic posted:

Yeah the linkage of blackwater which doesn't even exist anymore (I think even Xe might be defunct) and the fact its the daily mail makes that particular claim look super bullshit. But yeah they're obvi being tortured by someone.

Well, yes, it's DM so take it as you will. I respect folks enough ITT to keep the source in mind without a disclaimer. (*Fun fact: I was personally reported on in DM who made up some minor facts about the story for the sake of narrative. Last I checked, a note to the editor didn't change the article - so, yes, I'm personally aware.)

Asian Times has a piece indicating the Daily Mail source might be implying they're mercs put together by Erik Prince awhile ago: http://www.atimes.com/article/mbss-supreme-anti-corruption-committee-torturing-ritz-detainees/. Again, take what you will from it.

CrazyLoon posted:

MBS confirmed having (fake) multiple personality disorder would be p epic.

Mr. Robot-themed spin off.

TheDeadlyShoe posted:

This Salon article is really incredible.

I'm just accepting that no editorial board in the US of A seems to know fuckall about ME.

Just read this...

Christian Science Monitor posted:

The global spread of a culture of integrity

The mass arrests for corruption in Saudi Arabia were really a result of peer pressure among the world�s wealthiest countries who are trying to address a public desire for openness and transparent in governance.

ne of the surprising news events of 2017 was the arrest of more than 200 prominent people in Saudi Arabia for corruption. The roundup on Nov. 4 even included powerful princes within the ruling royal family. Now the leader of the campaign, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, has revealed a prime reason for this dramatic crackdown in the Middle East kingdom.

�My father [the king] saw that there is no way we can stay in the G-20 and grow with this level of corruption,� he said in a New York Times interview. Prince Salman estimates that 10 percent of government spending is siphoned off by corruption each year.

The G-20 is a club of the world�s wealthiest nations. It has also become the major forum for global governance. Its member states, including Saudi Arabia, not only set standards of reform among themselves, they also rely on peer pressure to hold each other to account.

Since 2010, the G-20 has had a �working group� of anti-corruption experts advising members on how to detect bribery and improve government transparency. For its part, Saudi Arabia has proposed a number of anti-corruption laws. It has set up university clubs to promote integrity and begun to measure public perceptions of corruption. And ever since the crown prince consolidated power this year � with a nod from King Salman bin Abdulaziz al Saud � the country�s elite has been targeted by an anti-corruption commission.

The mass arrests, in other words, reflect a decades-long global trend to cultivate a culture of integrity in many countries. This drive to curb corruption has now reached a level of importance in world affairs similar to that of human rights.

The trend has also sparked mass protests for honest governance from India to Romania. And recently, the presidents of two G20 members, Brazil and South Korea, have been impeached while a former president of Argentina faces charges for corruption.

The United States began this global trend in the 1970s with its far-reaching Foreign Corrupt Practices Act. But the movement has been widened to include the World Bank, European Union, and other bodies. Corruption is now seen as a driver of financial crises, terrorism, the drug trade, and slow economic development.

The main advocate for reform is a Paris-based group of 35 developed countries called the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development. The OECD provides advice to the G20. In 1999, it approved the Anti-Bribery Convention, the first binding international instrument to focus exclusively on bribery in business transactions. The pact now includes 44 countries and encompasses much of the worldwide commerce.

This effort to instill a culture of openness and accountability, says Angel Gurr�a, the OECD�s secretary general, has made economies more productive, governments more efficient, institutions more trusted, and societies more inclusive.

�In short,� he adds, �integrity delivers better lives.�

Saudi Arabia has now fully jumped on this global bandwagon. Perhaps its mass arrests should not be seen as a surprise. Rather they are merely another example of a spreading norm that embraces the highest principles of governance.

not even linking this turd of an editorial

# ¿ Nov 26, 2017 22:17

guidoanselmi: Feb 6, 2008; I thought my ideas were so clear. I wanted to make an honest post. No lies whatsoever.

Count Roland posted:

Its a big blow to Sisi's image and legitimacy. If a military dictator can't keep down a rebellion and keep people safe, what's he good for?

If MBS was behind this for some bizarre reason, there'd be reports hezbollah was behind it.

The rebellion in the Sinai is several years old at this point. This attack was a bit different in how it targeted civilians, but its not like this came out of nowhere. IS and affiliates routinely blow up mosques of people they deem insufficiently muslim.

I read your post earlier and didn't think otherwise. Then this came up on my feed: https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-s...e-idUKKBN1DQ0EU

The timing's pretty drat convenient, at the very least.

# ¿ Nov 26, 2017 23:46

guidoanselmi: Feb 6, 2008; I thought my ideas were so clear. I wanted to make an honest post. No lies whatsoever.

Count Roland posted:

Meh, not really. I mean, do we think that this "security alliance" was invented and talked about and written and agreed upon in the last couple days? Well no, for it to be announced it must have already been written and waiting.

So sure, this attack could have been staged to justify the agreement. But why bother? Egypt has been getting close to KSA since Sisi came to power. An alliance between the two countries is hardly surprising, and Sisi faces very limited political opposition at home, making it hard for me to believe an attack of this magnitude would be required to convince the military or elites or the populace that this alliance is necessary.

On the other hand, crises are the perfect time to take the controversial law off the shelf and get it passed. That's what happened in the US after 9/11. All sorts of lovely police-state style laws got dusted off, bundled into the Patriot Act and passed without anyone reading it.

I'm open minded when it comes to conspiracy theories (because they can and do occur) but I like to have something to back it up.

Yeah, I'm not saying they did it as you only need to wait a ~month between major attacks in MENA. At the very least the timing provides some more raison d'etre for the meeting & some talking points. If a conspiracy is behind it, I simply wouldn't be surprised as there the means & motivation are there.

Speaking of, I don't think Sisi's been solidly in the Saudi camp as recent as the shake-up:
From 2016: https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2016/05/iran-saudi-egypt-sisi-rapprochment-salman-visit.html
Post-MBS shake-up: https://www.washingtonpost.com/worl...m=.2f1e3207cddc

Squalid posted:

The gently caress? Is that actually an editorial or was it just an opinion piece?

By "The Monitor's Editorial Board" which is a shame because I've generally looked favorably at CSM.

# ¿ Nov 27, 2017 03:44

guidoanselmi: Feb 6, 2008; I thought my ideas were so clear. I wanted to make an honest post. No lies whatsoever.

steinrokkan posted:

...wave of nationalism...

The nationalism angle in describing Iran is an exaggeration. It's really just more acquiescence in reform-minded Iranians from friends I've talked to as other powers and forces in the ME are demonstrably more destabilizing and radical. People are OK with Iran's foreign adventures because people accept it will give more leverage for security.

IMHO, NYT has consistently done a lovely job of reading Iran & reporting. The recent article is a great example: artists putting on shows in support of the government are undoubtedly being underwritten by the government. Of course, they decontextualize the actual impression of Iranians by not mentioning the Iran-Iraq war and two US invasions and stick to the narrative that this "nationalism" is all a reaction to Trump, ISIS, and KSA as though the threats to the Iran are brand new. Seriously lovely.

Coldwar timewarp posted:

I don’t think this means “reform” vs hardliners in Iran is dead. It probably reflects a bipartisan foreign policy consensus. So the country will have internal movements on rights, the economy etc, but funding their MIC will be unquestioned.

This nails it on the head and comes back to:

steinrokkan posted:

...do you think this wave of nationalism will also kill off relations with the EU?

One of the best parts of opening trade up with Iran is that forces more transparency in economic institutions, which is a major reason some hard-liners are not interested in opening ties with the west. Consider: https://www.ft.com/content/43de1388-9857-11e7-a652-cde3f882dd7b

Here Khamenei has a really fine line to straddle. He can't alienate his powerful followers wrapped up in corruption but western capital would really, really, really help stabilize the economy & currency: http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=EUR&to=IRR&view=10Y. Of course, many of said followers are deeply invested in the arms industry.

So long as anti-corruption are focused away from MIC and the same people are not involved in both, western investment like the Total will help buoy Europe-Iranian relations. Note that sectors mentioned in the FT article are "ranging from oil and gas to telecoms and construction" are sectors where foreign investment would make sense is already being sought.

# ¿ Nov 28, 2017 16:18

guidoanselmi: Feb 6, 2008; I thought my ideas were so clear. I wanted to make an honest post. No lies whatsoever.

There's no way on earth Iran is interested in absorbing pre-existing issues in the Caucasus region when it can be a nice buffer. Like it brings on more liability - bringing new conflicts and entering into places where their geopolitical opponents have more ties - than gain. I mean Baku & pipelines are nice and all but we're in Tom Clancy territory to think it's remotely worth the cost at any point in the next half century at least. At that point, I have no idea on what value would remain.

Joint investments & pipeline connections there would be the best way to diversify power/risk for IR. Even that is very uphill AFAIK.

The gains they've made in the past two decades are still not solid, so consolidation of new & existing leverage from Tehran to Beirut is what'll be happening. I think what happens soon in Lebanon will be indicative of the tack that'll take.

# ¿ Nov 29, 2017 20:16

guidoanselmi: Feb 6, 2008; I thought my ideas were so clear. I wanted to make an honest post. No lies whatsoever.

Al-Saqr posted:

Saudi is going to get a nuclear technology transfer from the U.S. thanks to daddy trump:-

https://www.propublica.org/article/white-house-may-share-nuclear-power-technology-with-saudi-arabia

Does the U.S. ever export Nucular power reactors to other countries? Normally I hear of French, German, British or Russian firms providing that tech but I've never heard of an american firm doing so.

A lil better details: https://www.axios.com/westinghouse-saudi-nuclear-deal-2511380294.html

The reason US might wanna sell some units is because domestic deals aren't working out: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...n-idUSKBN18J2M2 Note, Toshiba now operates Westinghouse. Don't know the ownership stake and I'm too tired to look it up.

GCC has been toying with nuclear power production for awhile, at least since 2004. Timing now works out politically on both sides and financially for US. Saudis clearly have no idea wtf they're doing. if US wants to sell some lightwater reactors to KSA, it's KSA's loss.

The reason it made sense for Iran is because they have uranium deposits, were already cut off from meaningful foreign investment, the political gaming of breakthrough capability, and had enough domestic brainpower to complete the fuel cycle. I don't know how it'd break even in energy or capital, but at least you can leverage breakthrough capability to extract foreign concessions - which was the whole point of the nuclear deal - to make the whole investment worthwhile.

KSA really stands only to lose by investing in nuclear as opposed to solar power*. I hear the whole country is a desert, so, uh...yeah. Sadly, after some cursory searching I can't find any good studies on comparative cost/kW because of how easy it is to fudge. Building NPP in KSA would require procuring & transporting nuclear fuel to KSA with lifetime of security and then securing contracts for fuel disposal. Not to mention it'd take at least a decade to see the first Watt. Yeah, have fun with that MBS.

* https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_power_in_Saudi_Arabia & https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_in_Saudi_Arabia#Electricity_consumption - if they invest in nuke, no way they'll meet these solar targets and they'd need a poo poo ton of NPPs to fill the solar gap as the cost of PV goes down.

^ US was instrumental in the heavy water Norway-Israel deal AFAIK. I believe Teller (& maybe Von Neumann) personally helped with bomb physics.

guidoanselmi fucked around with this message at 03:21 on Nov 30, 2017

# ¿ Nov 30, 2017 03:19

guidoanselmi: Feb 6, 2008; I thought my ideas were so clear. I wanted to make an honest post. No lies whatsoever.

Randarkman posted:

Israel was French (and British) reactor technology I think, as well as substantial supplies of heavy water (useful for making plutonium from natural, rather than enriched, uranium) from Norway. So, yeah, don't think the US was involved there, then again Israel began its nuclear program sometime before they really were a US ally.

e: Speaking of that, I've always, as someone who has studied a bit of nuclear physics and nuclear energy, found it a bit weird that Iran's been going the uranium enrichment route for its nuclear program.

Piggybacking off of Protagonist's comments, throughput is one major driver. There've been a few claims of wanting to sell/export LEU from Iran at some point. Moreover, any other enrichment path might be too politically risky. The heavy water reactor was one of the first things Iran gave up in negotiations.

The Protagonist, they had a long-standing deal to import 20% U235 for the Tehran Research Reactor from Argentina - but it's a small reactor for physics & medical isotopes. http://www.nti.org/learn/facilities/182/

# ¿ Nov 30, 2017 19:04

guidoanselmi: Feb 6, 2008; I thought my ideas were so clear. I wanted to make an honest post. No lies whatsoever.

Ardennes posted:

Likewise, Egypt can get access to some Western equipment, but it often older equipment (they are using F16 A/Bs and M1A1 tanks) and there is the obvious issue of selling equipment to Egypt that could, in turn, be used against Israel. By buying some Russian equipment, they sidestep the issue.

Kinda apples & oranges but Su-35 is $40-60M and F-35 export is $110-130M. A lot more bang for the buck with Russian arms. I imagine that trend keeps across the board.

# ¿ Dec 1, 2017 22:49

guidoanselmi: Feb 6, 2008; I thought my ideas were so clear. I wanted to make an honest post. No lies whatsoever.

Al-Saqr posted:

and Iran won that match LOL.

It was the only sports game my mom ever watched, and still to this date.

# ¿ Dec 2, 2017 01:17

guidoanselmi: Feb 6, 2008; I thought my ideas were so clear. I wanted to make an honest post. No lies whatsoever.

With Saleh gone as a potentially uniting figure, I wonder what the Houthi endgame even looks like here? With the allowance of AQP to flourish in Yemen, total political control, even through a figurehead, seems completely improbable.

Al-Saqr posted:

...launch a full scale invasion.

Looking at Yemen's map and, yeah, good luck with that. I'm just imagining an armored column advancing to take Sanaa on the orders of armchair general MBS ending like Grozny Pt 1.

# ¿ Dec 4, 2017 18:53

guidoanselmi: Feb 6, 2008; I thought my ideas were so clear. I wanted to make an honest post. No lies whatsoever.

Al-Saqr posted:

Israel and fascism are one enemy against all free Arabs and muslims. God drat them all. If the Palestinians are forced to surrender then Saudi Arabia just handed Arab and Islamic history to the loving ayatollahs once and for all. It will be the murderers of the Iranian regime that who will receive the historical high ground, fuuuck thaaaaat.

I'd have thought that as soon as they built the hotel that overshadows the Kabaa...alas I was wrong.

For non-muslims in the thread, I can't stress how deeply ingrained in Islamic cultures Palestinian solidarity is and how bad the "optics" of a move like this is. Almost every jummah I have ever been to has had a dua that has included Palestine, regardless of culture, denomination, or location (in the US, admittedly)*. Depending on if/how the news of this sort of backstabbing gets out, there'll be pretty severe blowback for KSA from all sorts of alignments within Dar Al-Islam. There's really no upside on any of this except to build an anti-Iranian coalition with complete and utter tunnel vision.

*Al Sadr, does this sort of culture that constant refers to the plight of the Palestinians exist in KSA anymore? I'm curious how many people there would react if the news gets to them.

# ¿ Dec 4, 2017 21:47

guidoanselmi: Feb 6, 2008; I thought my ideas were so clear. I wanted to make an honest post. No lies whatsoever.

Ardennes posted:

It may simply boil down to the political development of a particular type of personality/familial centric authoritarian state can took hold in Arab states during the Cold War. These states were mostly based on patronage networks that largely bypassed the population, and therefore created an unbridgeable distance between the state and the population. This "gap" in belief filter its way into the military and necessitated "two-tiered" armies of poorly trained conscripts and better-armed loyalists (ie Republican Guard units). However, quite often this didn't seem to be enough to actually protect the state and often these units often still collapsed on themselves when a real war actually came. Also, it didn't help that the military often become mini-states on themselves with their own economic infrastructure which strengthened patronage networks but further alienated the population.

I've heard this theory more times than I can count and makes sense to me. Does anyone know where the definitive paper or work is that argues this thesis?

e:

Two articles that caught my attention this morning on Iran - not because they're newsworthy but more because they're funny:

quote:

Israel won�t allow Iran to establish a military base in Syria, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said as he called on the world to halt Iran�s development of ballistic missiles, nuclear power and its support of global terrorism.

�We have to act now against Iran,� Netanyahu said on Wednesday afternoon at the Jerusalem Post Diplomatic Conference.

These comments come the same week that Israeli forces allegedly executed two air strikes against Syria, including one on an Iranian military base and the other on a Syrian military research center.

�We will not let them establish themselves in Syria,� Netanyahu said. �We mean what we say and we say what we mean,� he added.

During his short talk, his only scheduled English address for the day, he did not address US President Donald Trump's pending recognition of Jerusalem as Israel�s capital.

Instead he used the stage to urge the diplomats in the room to send a �cable� to their governments urging more pressure on Iran with regard to human rights and halting Iran�s nuclear capacity.

He asked the diplomats to support efforts by the US and Israel to create a series of safeguards around the 2015 nuclear deal with Iran that addresses flaws in the agreement that would allow Iran to quickly become a nuclear power once it ends.

�If Iran continues unabated they will have nuclear weapons in a decade,� he said.

Tehran is also developing an intercontinental ballistic missile with global reach, Netanyahu said.

He pointed to a map of the world, including the Middle East, with countries under Iranian influence in black, to show how it was slowly taking over the region, creating a �land bridge� reaching to the Mediterranean sea.

Hamas and Hezbollah would �not last a day without Iran,� Netanyahu said.

To the diplomats he added, protect �the flames of liberty and the flames of progress.�

http://www.jpost.com/Israel-News/Netanyahu-We-have-to-act-now-against-Iran-517171

:wow:

Also Friedman continues to be a loving idiot but has a broken clock comment between said idiocy & stroking MBS:

quote:

The greatest thing that the U.S. and Saudi Arabia could do is to stop working each other into a lather over this Iranian �threat� and to focus on their domestic reform agendas. That would be the best revenge on Tehran.

And another reason he never should have passed 11th grade comp:

quote:

So Trump will rail against Iran and pretend that he is Thor, throwing down thunderbolts, like recognizing Jerusalem as Israel�s capital. But he�s really just a lost tourist, looking for his bus.

Not linking his turd.

guidoanselmi fucked around with this message at 20:35 on Dec 6, 2017

# ¿ Dec 6, 2017 20:21

guidoanselmi: Feb 6, 2008; I thought my ideas were so clear. I wanted to make an honest post. No lies whatsoever.

Al-Saqr posted:

Who knows what will happen next, but it's definitely over the medium long term not going to be good news for anyone.

That's not true.

Bibi will be booted, Avi Gabbay becomes PM.

Seeing an opportunity to solve domestic issues, he reaches out to to Iran's Khomenei through a backchannel to come up with a historic solution to achieve a lasting peace. Nearing the end of his years and reflecting on Iran's young generation, he bows his head in realization that this opportunity may assure the Islamic Republic security in perpetuity, from within and without. In time, talks materialize guaranteeing a two party solution with full Israeli withdrawal from the West Bank in exchange for security assurances.

When news hits Saudi royalty, the expected response doesn't come. A week prior MBS had an untimely death, not at the hands of his family or countrymen, but a strange incident where a mechanized(?) giant squid rose from the depths to swallow his yacht. After palace intrigue and a heart attack, Bin Talal becomes Saudi King. His response was "gently caress You, Trump" to finally resolve his Twitter conflict - he proceeded to work with all other middle eastern nations to develop a secular confederation of states.

...and then I woke up and remembered

# ¿ Dec 7, 2017 05:51

guidoanselmi: Feb 6, 2008; I thought my ideas were so clear. I wanted to make an honest post. No lies whatsoever.

Don't forget kurdish regions with their autonomy and divisions, guys!

# ¿ Dec 14, 2017 03:04

guidoanselmi: Feb 6, 2008; I thought my ideas were so clear. I wanted to make an honest post. No lies whatsoever.

Ardennes posted:

I think the major hurdle between Iran/Turkey was over Assad, and once Turkey backed down over removing him I think the major source of contention was gone. Right now they have a common enemy, and don't seem to step on each other's toes too much. Also, the Kurdish issue also unites them.

I imagine some common objectives were agreed to in the Sochi talks outside of Syria. I'd love to know what they were.

IMHO, Erdogan has been seeking whatever the most advantage is he can find (for what or whom IDK). I don't think anyone expects to trust him on the timescale of 2-3 years. If anyone knows better about what Turkey's goals are, I'd love to read!

Throatwarbler posted:

I can't wait for the tens of thousands of Iranian trained and experienced Shia militia to go back to Afghanistan and start Afghan Hezbollah.

An organization like that wouldn't be possibly IMHO in Afghanistan. If anything that kinda had been the Northern Alliance, of which Dostum was a leader of.

That said, I'd put money on it. Depending on how things play in Syria as the national government restores itself, it might be a smart move for Tehran to deescalate there as assurances become solvent. Whether or not it'd be a smart move to send them to Afghanistan depends on how limited their mission would be. Iran was using a lot of Afghani conscripts in Syria, so there'd be plenty of room for promotions if they return to Afghanistan to engage enemy forces there. Iran operating north of the Kush would be like a homecoming.

# ¿ Dec 14, 2017 23:22

guidoanselmi: Feb 6, 2008; I thought my ideas were so clear. I wanted to make an honest post. No lies whatsoever.

Sinteres posted:

There aren't really enough Shia to create an Afghan Hezbollah. They're just too outnumbered.

I'm not going to say targeting civilian infrastructure is good, but crying "how dare they attack an airport!?" after all the infrastructure the Saudis have bombed in Yemen is such bullshit.

https://twitter.com/stcolumbia/status/941485663794401280

I can understand why some people might say Collin Powell is a role model, but not at that one moment.

# ¿ Dec 15, 2017 05:57

guidoanselmi: Feb 6, 2008; I thought my ideas were so clear. I wanted to make an honest post. No lies whatsoever.

Moatman posted:

I was at the latest 10 when Colin Powell was in office so I have no idea what this is referring to

His speech to the UN on Iraq WMD.

I'm not even saying that Iran didn't supply parts/technology, more that something like this is eerily reminiscent. In the context of the Bush and now Trump administrations I don't see how anyone non-aligned will view this with any credulity.

# ¿ Dec 15, 2017 08:17

guidoanselmi: Feb 6, 2008; I thought my ideas were so clear. I wanted to make an honest post. No lies whatsoever.

never forget

# ¿ Dec 18, 2017 08:10

guidoanselmi: Feb 6, 2008; I thought my ideas were so clear. I wanted to make an honest post. No lies whatsoever.

Sinteres posted:

For what it's worth, it is notable that there seems to be a solid consensus that these missiles are Iranian now rather than scrounged up remnants of Yemen's military.

I was pretty skeptical at first, seems pretty impressive that you can transport a Scud into Yemen right now. Small arms, some heavy guns, sure. But a scud?

Alternatively, I wonder if they're retrofit kits?

# ¿ Dec 20, 2017 00:53

guidoanselmi: Feb 6, 2008; I thought my ideas were so clear. I wanted to make an honest post. No lies whatsoever.

merry xmas you dirty kafirs

# ¿ Dec 25, 2017 19:45

guidoanselmi: Feb 6, 2008; I thought my ideas were so clear. I wanted to make an honest post. No lies whatsoever.

Bohemian Nights posted:

This particular episode was probably the weakest i've seen from caspian report, and if turkey wasn't something we discussed all the time, I probably wouldn't have linked it either. I generally think Shirvan's analysis is good- like his stuff on Saudi Arabia has, as far as I know, mostly been on point (And I really recommend his Science in Islam historical series!)

Also in "here's" defense, I'm pretty sure I'm the only one who links these videos, so in theory I could also be the only actual fan of caspian report!

I had the impression that his Patreon followers egged him on to make that vid. To me, I thought it clear it was a thought experiment essentially predicated on the collapse of NATO or Russian territorial integrity, which is pretty out there.

# ¿ Dec 29, 2017 18:48

guidoanselmi: Feb 6, 2008; I thought my ideas were so clear. I wanted to make an honest post. No lies whatsoever.

Al-Saqr posted:

I�m not going to jump the gun and predict stuff based on these newspapers and rouhani statements, but the fact that there�s actual back and forth and dialogue and differences of opinion on how to tackle the issue rather than a full throated lockdown of the regime on any discussion on the topic is a sign of confidence of the establishment and a surprising flexibility...

Pretty much this. It was equally predictable and sad watching media commentators on protests. Post-2009, the government (rackets) knows that they need to co-opt the argument of the streets and maintain a 'war of attrition' to slowly cede power to others in a controllable way. This is why Rouhani won two times in a row, he has the support of Khamenei who has a longer term strategy.

IMHO nothing much will happen except the perfunctory rolling of heads after some corruption investigation. I think a lot of people are angry at the state of the economy and foreign intervention but, similarly, a lot of people are also cognizant that the economy is held hostage by the US, KSA, and Israeli foreign lobbying. What Iran needs most is foreign investment and currency, and it's unclear if and how that would come even if Iran acceded to everything the "West" would want. I think the response to foreign intervention will be tricky - I doubt the government will want to make any concessions if only because it'd show their foreign affairs are vulnerable to domestic unrest.

Ardennes posted:

I wonder how much of it is simply the always dangerous outcome of "rising expectations."

From what I gather it's mainly this. There were high expectations after the nuclear deal and people want the standard of living, namely employment & inflation, to have been resolved.

e: A big part of me suspects these protests, or their success, is a direct result of foreign meddling. I imagine I'll have to wait half a century to find out!

guidoanselmi fucked around with this message at 20:11 on Dec 31, 2017

# ¿ Dec 31, 2017 20:06

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# ¿ May 11, 2024 12:20

guidoanselmi: Feb 6, 2008; I thought my ideas were so clear. I wanted to make an honest post. No lies whatsoever.

Had an Iranian colleague stay with me the past few days. Talking to him & reading my FB feed of Iranians studying in America, most people are apathetic to the protests while hoping the government address corruption. One good conversation about Ahmadenijad's oligarchs* who've exported currency that are essentially untouchable due to Ahmadenijad's leverage. *Here's a summary I quickly found: https://www.peoplesworld.org/article/iran-s-neo-liberal-agenda/

Count Roland posted:

I thought I read the IRGC had already been brought out?

Basij is under IRGC and they're ever-present.

e: Titra Parsi & Billy Kristol
https://www.rawstory.com/2018/01/wa...comments=disqus

# ¿ Jan 2, 2018 21:43

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Debate & Discussion > Middle East Thread: Clarissa Explains the Fall

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