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They can't be serious. e: Yeah its on Reuters quote:BEIRUT (Reuters) - Saudi Arabia said on Monday that Lebanon had declared war against it because of attacks against the Kingdom by the Lebanese Shi‘ite group Hezbollah. http://www.reuters.com/article/us-saudi-missiles-yemen/saudi-led-forces-close-air-sea-and-land-access-to-yemen-idUSKBN1D60I8?il=0 e2: So the Saudi Gulf Affairs Minister was himself told that this was the case. Not exactly an official announcement. Count Roland fucked around with this message at 22:19 on Nov 6, 2017 |
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Nov 6, 2017 22:17
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A full article: https://www.haaretz.com/middle-east-news/1.821369 quote:Saudi Arabia's foreign minister accused the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah on Monday of firing a missile at the capital Riyadh on Saturday, under the orders of Iran. Foreign Minister Adel bin Ahmed told CNN Monday that Saudi Arabia considers the attack an act of war by Iran.
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Nov 6, 2017 22:21
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The real question is is what if anything KSA does in response.
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Nov 6, 2017 22:25
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El Disco posted:They're going to let literally zero food and medical supplies into Yemen instead of a trickle and wait for their little war to resolve itself. So more of what they've been doing for years?
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Nov 6, 2017 22:41
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I wonder how much of this was planned around that loving orb.
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Nov 7, 2017 01:15
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Lote posted:Edit: I don’t know enough about the foreign politics in the Middle East right now to form an opinion about how dumb the Trump plan for the Middle East is. I assume this is bad. On a scale of smoldering proxy war to all out Middle East war with Israel running around with a hand grenade ala Anchorman, how bad is it? Nobody knows what the plan is, except that Trump and Saudi Arabia and Israel get along famously, and they all loving hate Iran.
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Nov 7, 2017 01:32
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Mixodorian posted:Yes, they are certainly racist terms. I'm Ghanaian/Irish-American so all I've ever heard about are those drat pesky Nigerians but that's kind of like squabbling sibling levels of xenophobia. My fiance, however, is from an Iranian family, and getting close to all of them has shown me a whole new level of sectarian/ethnic beef. I lived with Punjabis for several years and their contempt for Pakistanis is made to look tame by what I've been hearing from my in-laws and their relatives and friends. Ok. These old Iranians-- how do they feel about Iran's allies/proxies in the region? Assad, Hezbollah, PMUs, Houthis? Do they like these arrangements or no?
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Nov 7, 2017 16:32
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Mixodorian posted:Just as a precursor, my fiance's parents have been in the country for several decades and are non-practicing, if they're still religious at all. They were very excited that Rouhani was re elected over Raisi and that his re election was a show of resistance to the fundamentalists still controlling the Iranian state (I don't think Rouhani is THAT much of a reformer, but that was the impression Iranians had of the election as far as I can tell). I'll go in order. Neat. With Hezbollah I wasn't talking specifically about Syria, though that is still interesting. What about them as an organization. Say, if Hezbollah were to get into a conflict with Israel or Saudi Arabia. Would these people support Hezbollah cause they're cool guys? Or support Hezbollah because they don't like their opponents? Or say gently caress it they're all bad let them kill each other.
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Nov 7, 2017 19:19
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Al-Saqr posted:Looooooolll holy shiiiit Its this legit? I don't especially trust some rando Indian paper for this sort of thing.
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Nov 7, 2017 21:00
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OhFunny posted:I feel like any intra-Lebanese fighting isn't going to last long in the face of an Israeli invasion. Pretty well everyone agrees Hezbollah and Israel will go at it again. The last war was a stalemate that embarrassed Israel. No chance this will be allowed to stand forever.
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Nov 8, 2017 01:18
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icantfindaname posted:In 100% serious, not-joking honesty Iran would/will very likely be a much better steward of the Middle East than the USA and its allies ever were or will be I think the Arab nations would disagree with this.
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Nov 8, 2017 15:24
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Ramrod Hotshot posted:There's an Iraqi "Hezbollah"? Hezbollah just means "party of god" so you'll find it as part of the name of militias all over the region.
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Nov 8, 2017 19:01
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This has been predicted for some time here, wouldn't be very surprising.
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Nov 8, 2017 21:17
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Ardennes posted:I assume the timing is due to the fact it looks like the attempt to cut the SaA from Iraq has failed, and plan B is to attack Hezbollah directly while the Syrian Civil War is at least still going on. (That or it is saber rattling). Yeah I think its this. MiddleOne posted:Can someone educate me on how Saudi Arabia going to war with Lebanon would even work logistically? As I'm looking on the world map I'm gradually realizing I know literally nothing about Jordan but this is still very confusing to me. A direct war is highly unlikely. They're trying to stir up enough poo poo that Hezbollah ends up fighting where it doesn't want to. I'd laugh if all this was a huge ploy to draw Hezbollah back to Lebanon, while the revived FSA is ready to mount a fresh offensive to take Damascus.
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Nov 9, 2017 16:56
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Pajser posted:right. like they went to war with Qatar a few months ago. just another trumpian nonsense and posturing and then pretend it's all part of a non-existent long game. It isn't nonsense, and there is a long game. Not like I know what it is, but if safe to assume that "gently caress iran" is part of it somehow. I mean, they brought out the loving orb! You can't tell me they have an orb and no evil plan to go along with it.  e: that these plans are stupid and are backfiring, well that's because they're morons
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Nov 9, 2017 18:50
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Al-Saqr posted:Unsubstantiated rumor, but why the gently caress would they even bother with this:- This matches perfectly with my  thoughts from the other day but it still seems like nonsense. If Saudi jets start bombing loving Lebanon then poo poo has really gotten out of control.
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Nov 9, 2017 22:38
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Radio Prune posted:Seriously, what the gently caress is MbS up to? Making it so that the whole world is watching when he gets himself crowned.
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Nov 10, 2017 04:11
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Volkerball posted:Just as a reminder since it's not exactly common knowledge, a year or two ago, KSA said through official channels that they and Turkey were going to directly invade Syria from the north and absolutely nothing happened. Any talk about Lebanon should be met with a huge eye roll and an "I'll believe it when I see it." Just so everyone understands the whole premise of this discussion is total bullshit. I wouldn't say total bullshit. KSA effectively kidnapped a foreign head of state and forced him to resign. Plus the purges. Plus the recent attempted blockade of Qatar. I don't at all see KSA getting directly involved in Lebanon, but they've been much more willing to take action of late. Plus having someone like Macron swoop in suggests to me this is relatively serious.
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Nov 10, 2017 16:10
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Israel lining up reasons for it to do stuff in Syria. quote:The Iranian military is said to have established a compound at a site used by the Syrian army outside El-Kiswah, 14 km (8 miles) south of Damascus. quote:The base lies about 50 km (31 miles) from the Golan Heights - Syrian territory occupied and then annexed by Israel and where it now has a significant military presence. http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-41945189
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Nov 11, 2017 01:04
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ksa: hezbollah is at war with us hezbollah: no, ksa is at war with us ... ???
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Nov 11, 2017 02:50
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Squalid posted:My main question is: if Saudi or Israel were to launch a campaign against Hezbollah, what would be the objective? KSA would see removing Hezbollah from the Lebanese government a victory. They seem also to be trying to provoke Iran, I assume they believe the US would step in if Iran got seriously shooty. Or maybe as a way to lure Syrian and Iranian militias into Lebanon. This could help sow chaos and mess up the government. loving I don't know, I don't understand their motivations.
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Nov 11, 2017 05:07
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I made something more useful than baseless speculation: 1) Saudi (KSA) jets could fly over Jordan and Syria to get to Lebanon. Jordan would probably allow Saudi flights. Syria wouldn't be happy. 2) Or KSA could go through rebel held territory in Syria. I checked and the SAA supposedly has territory going right up to the Golan Heights, so they'd still overfly Assad-controlled dirt. 3) If the Saudis were feeling cheeky, they could go over Jordan and then the Golan Heights. This would be diplomatically confusing and there might be weird laws governing this territory. 4) Its also possible to fly only over Israeli terrain, but only if they carefully fly over the Red Sea port of Eilat. Israel isn't likely to allow this, though since they hate Hezbollah and are egging the Saudis on it isn't impossible. 5) Or just fly over your ally's territory and the sea. Its a long flight but trouble free, mid-air refuelling would be a lot safer.
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Nov 11, 2017 05:13
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Duckbox posted:E. Lol I just realized I forgot to mention Desert Storm. It's sort of amazing that they left Saddam in power. Given their own objectives, it was a smart move. Removing Saddam means the US was responsible for what came next. Civil war would have been the likely outcome then, too. It made strategic sense not to go down that road.
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Nov 13, 2017 16:52
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Volkerball posted:There was a civil war. I assume you're talking about the shia whose uprising was put down? Don't know if I'd call that a civil war, seemed pretty one sided.
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Nov 13, 2017 17:56
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Volkerball posted:Polls show that Saudi youths in general are more politically optimistic on the domestic front than other middle eastern nationals, but I wouldn't bet on that remaining the case forever. That type of thing can change on a dime. Yeah. Its important I think that Saudi public opinion or loyalty in their government has never (that I'm aware of) been put to test.
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Nov 17, 2017 19:25
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That's a whole lot of nothing he said there. Once IS no longer has any territory, the US could stay, or it could leave. I don't get the impression this had been decided yet.
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Nov 19, 2017 00:32
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Is there still an IS enclave bordering the Golan Heights?
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Nov 20, 2017 04:27
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Ikasuhito posted:Yup. They also still hold some territory in Damascus as far as I remember. How is the continued existence of this enclave justified? Bordering both Jordan and Israel gives ample opportunity to strike at them.
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Nov 20, 2017 18:43
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A Typical Goon posted:This is a loving stupid argument, holy poo poo dude. No, its a good point he's making. Yemen has been on the "brink" for years now. And indeed the situation there is terrible. But 50 000 is a predicted number. And given how little information is available from inside Yemen, such predictions aren't really worth much. I'd love to see more coverage of Yemen, and most certainly more pressure on those conducting the blockade/invasion. Making up numbers is not a good tactic for this though.
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Nov 21, 2017 14:46
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Ardennes posted:Calculating deaths from famines is notoriously difficult and you may indeed have thousands of people still alive but may soon die from secondary infections. that may or may not show up in statistics. By all, accounts the famine in Yemen is massive and the devastation is already happening. I mean they're made up in that they're predictions, which the actual result may or may not bear any resemblance too. Its arguing semantics I know, but when involving numbers I want to be sure about them.
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Nov 21, 2017 18:59
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Ardennes posted:To be honest, I think most people arguing have some type of "dog" in the fight even if they have never visited MENA once or know a single person from it. I think it is endemic of a broader struggle for power that is occurring across the world. Some people may just be caught up in the debate, but usually, they aren't the ones that are constantly there in the "trenches' so to speak. I'd replace Cold with WW2 there. These are revolutionary times we live in.
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Nov 21, 2017 22:22
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Tree Bucket posted:Yeah, what on earth is going on? Have things always been this mad, or are we just more aware of it? I keep getting the very distinct and very unpleasant sensation that we are living through History. There's a dreadful resonance in all those old stories of civilisations bickering about last century's fight while next century's disaster creeps up on them. (I need to stop reading the news for a while.) Things are always (usually) mad. 16 years ago was 9/11, a world-changing event. 10 years before that the Soviet Union was falling apart and newly independent countries coming into being. You can always move further back. We're always at the center of our own histories. But when I said WW2 earlier, it wasn't for emphasis, it was me trying to be specific. To a large extent we still live in a post WW2 world. The geopolitical situation is a direct result of the war. The global order is basically the one the US and the allies built, with institutions like the world bank, WTO, NATO and many more. These institutions have been maintained mostly by US diplomatic, economic, and military power (by getting countries on-side, by providing loans, by keeping seas open for shipping and blowing poo poo up). "The West" as it exists today, operates under this system, and to a large extent the rest of the world does too. Communism was all that really opposed it, and that collapsed after the 80s. After the USSR fell, some people thought this order would basically prevail forever, since it was so clearly superior. Nobody thinks that anymore. The US is relatively less powerful than it was in past decades. It is both less able and especially under Trump less willing to enforce this global order. Other countries' relative power increases. All sorts of other changes contribute to this: shifts in demographics, and the rapid advance of technology being very big ones. To me, the whole notion of the nation state isn't all that solid, based as it was on shared linguistic/ethnic heritage, in our world of people moving and everywhere. The internet lets people very neatly bypass existing power structures-- much as Luther's texts spread thanks to the printing press, the internet allows dangerous (to some) ideas to propagate rapidly, and ideas can be world changing. Even when it seem like the sky is falling, these things usually move a lot more slowly than you'd think. Short of a large war, this global order I describe won't fall apart anytime soon. But its steadily unraveling before our eyes.
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Nov 22, 2017 01:20
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Big parade in Lebanon tomorrow, with Hariri attending. Watch it get bombed.
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Nov 22, 2017 04:20
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https://twitter.com/MicahZenko/status/932600210634739712
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Nov 22, 2017 19:05
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Bohemian Nights posted:What could congress do about it, anyway? My concern is that it lends some weight to the flailing about the US attacking Iran, or sticking its dick somewhere else. Talk is cheap, especially coming from Trump, but troop movements are not.
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Nov 22, 2017 20:01
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Saladin Rising posted:Interesting: Or wanting to discourage sectarian celebrations.
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Nov 22, 2017 20:25
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I think multipolar warfare can look like all kinds of wars, not just proxy ones like Syria. WW1 was fought in a multipolar world. The great powers at the time just grouped themselves together. The Iran-Iraq war, or the Falklands war or the Russo-Japan war, these are all more conventional wars that could occur in a multipolar world. 2 regional powers fighting, a great power attacking a minor power, and two great powers going at it. Even WW1 should have been multipolar. Democracy vs Fascism vs Communism. But despite the enormous ideological differences, it still ended up being 2v1 before being 1v1. I for one think there's be more war in a multipolar world, not less. It also might not be very stable in the long run, but then nothing has been lately.
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Nov 23, 2017 04:07
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Blut posted:https://www.amazon.co.uk/Beware-Small-States-Lebanon-Battleground/dp/057123741X/ I really should read this. I picked it up years ago but I was put off by how the intro of the book just seemed to talk about how bad Israel was. I mean, I largely agree with that, but it seemed out of place. I guess I'll try again.
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Nov 23, 2017 14:48
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Why do you post that?
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Nov 23, 2017 17:14
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rear end struggle posted:Putin tips over Erdogan's chair No, I looked at that. Erdogan goes to standup, but the chair has started to lean back. He doesn't standup fully lest it fall over. That's why he's bent over when he shakes Putin's hand. Putin sees the chair is unsteady and adjusts it, then just pulls it away. Erdogan is still awkwardly moving about. edit: a 2nd camera angle! I was close.
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Nov 23, 2017 19:04
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