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Ramrod Hotshot
May 30, 2003

Squalid posted:

I I just remembered when Trump when bankrupt in the 1990s he had to sell his prized super-yacht to Prince Al-Waleed bin Talal at a loss. 100% he's been resentful ever since and is definitely gloating about the Prince's just come-upance to anyone within earshot

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kingdom_5KR

Wikipedia posted:

After a refit, Trump renamed it Trump Princess.

Because of course he did.

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Ramrod Hotshot
May 30, 2003

OhFunny posted:

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-lebanon-politics-hariri-analysis/saudi-reopens-lebanon-front-in-struggle-with-iran-idUSKBN1D72BA

I don't get what the Saudis are thinking here. There's no way their Lebanese proxies are going to defeat Hezbollah. If anything the end result is a Lebanon under even more Hezbollah influence.

Does Israel count as a proxy? My guess is they're just trying to sow chaos in the hopes it catalyzes a new war between Israel and Hez. Less of an intricate scheme and more throwing poo poo at the wall and hoping it sticks.

Ramrod Hotshot
May 30, 2003

Throatwarbler posted:

Hezbollah(Iraqi, Lebanese, Syrian) has taken surrounded and will probably take Al Bukamal.

https://twitter.com/tobiaschneider/status/928266943706075137

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pG-u_gZTXVo

There's an Iraqi "Hezbollah"?

Ramrod Hotshot
May 30, 2003


Jeez louise, Saudi Arabia, catch your drat breath

Ramrod Hotshot
May 30, 2003

Josef bugman posted:

Okay so, I am a real newbie to all this but can I pop down some of the local "players" and ask for people to correct my understanding of what is going on?

So you have Syria. Which is a cluster-gently caress but one in which Assad is in charge backed by Russia. There are still levels of fighting going on and nothing is "settled" though.

You also have Iran who dislikes Syria but hates Saudi Arabia. Both of them are fighting proxy wars because they hate each other and both would like to be the local potentate. Iran and Iraq are closer now than they have been for some time, and both dislike The Kurds who are currently split between Turkey, Iraq and Iran.

ISIS has by now been reduced to a few scattered groups of people fleeing through open ground and trying desperately not to get butched by whoever catches them first.

Saudi Arabia is currently at war with Iran (by proxy) and Yemen and Lebanon by not proxy. SA has also gone through a palace coup/ succsion crisis over the past few weeks.

Israel dislikes everyone but hasn't been doing too much that I know about recently, would appreciate more information and Egypt is in a similar bag, except not as disliked. Turkey is undergoing large scale problems as well.

In short everything hosed up and I need a map. Have I gotten anything wrong, in which case please point it out.

- Iran and Syria are allies. Iran supports Assad's forces in the civil war.

- The Kurds are split into multiple polities and factions, which have various relationships with other factions. There are also Kurds in Syria. The Kurdish-led SDF controls about a third of the country right now and is fighting ISIS.

- Yemen is a proxy war between Saudi Arabia and Iran, though SA is far more deeply involved. No one is at war with Lebanon (yet, this could change in literally days)

- It's not that there's been a coup or succession crisis in SA, but more that the future king has been purging opponents and preparing himself to rule as an autocrat.

- Israel is pro-Iraqi Kurdistan and has a de facto alliance with Saudi Arabia although neither would ever admit it. Egypt is increasingly Saudi Arabia's lapdog.

Ramrod Hotshot
May 30, 2003

Count Roland posted:

It isn't nonsense, and there is a long game. Not like I know what it is, but if safe to assume that "gently caress iran" is part of it somehow.

I mean, they brought out the loving orb! You can't tell me they have an orb and no evil plan to go along with it.




e: that these plans are stupid and are backfiring, well that's because they're morons

Speaking of stupid plans involving Qatar that are sure to backfire...

https://theintercept.com/2017/11/09/uae-qatar-oitaba-rowland-banque-havilland-world-cup/

The UAE wants to steal the world cup by short selling Qatar lol

Ramrod Hotshot
May 30, 2003

Al-Saqr posted:

apparently, there's a rumor floating around twitter about that Khamenei send his envoy Ali Akbar Wilayeti to visit Hariri and Hariri and one of his newspapers praised him after the visit, which is what probably drove his paymasters in Riyadh Insane.


If that was literally the only reason they made him resign and imprisoned him...:stare:

Ramrod Hotshot
May 30, 2003

Surprise Giraffe posted:

Seems a bunch like Saudi Arabia is going to rule a substantially larger chunk of the middle east p. soon from the Harari thing. I feel like it's all going to be carved up again

I think the opposite may be happening. This newfound aggressiveness is really just desperation. Oil's been cheap for a while and it's running out. There's plans in the works to turn assets liquid, like privatizing Aramco and "Vision 2030". There's a lot of unemployed young men. The real world is seeping in on the Wahhabist oil utopia, and time is running out. They want to take on Iran now before they're too weak to be able to.

Of course, it could just be random flailings of Mohammed "Top Gun" bin Salman, but probably not since he hasn't been assassinated yet.

Ramrod Hotshot
May 30, 2003

A Buttery Pastry posted:

Your post kinda made me think of Saudi Arabia like pre-WW1 Germany - bad leader and an establishment feeling that the opening to take down their biggest rival was shrinking rapidly, so they had to do something decisive, soon. Good thing Saudi Arabia isn't the German Empire I suppose.

I think a better analogy (this is silly and none of it is really analogous, but let me have fun for a minute) is Saudi Arabia as the pre-WW1 Austrian Empire. An antiquated monarchy too weak to really act decisively on its own, but acting aggressively towards its neighbors (Serbia) with the assumption that its more powerful ally (Germany, analogous to the US or Israel) will come to its aid in a pinch. And if the crown prince is killed, that really would spark a war, as it did then.

Ramrod Hotshot
May 30, 2003

CrazyLoon posted:

Would KSA react similarly, were one of its prominent royals take his own version of Archduke Ferdinand's tour, but this time in Yemen and they get capped? Eh...honestly, I don't think they have the balls for it. Back then, Austro-Hungary might've held antiquated notions of warfare and that with the Germans on their side and the Turks, surely it'll all be over quick. But nowadays, with not even the USA being able to decisively defeat any nation or people, that are willing to resort to long-term guerilla warfare...even Saudi royals can't be that disconnected from reality to not know, how dumb repeating history would be nowadays.

Yeah, the more likely scenario is a Saudi civil war caused by the power vacuum.

Ramrod Hotshot
May 30, 2003


:unsmith:

Ramrod Hotshot
May 30, 2003

If Erdogan could tone down the lebensraum talk for a minute and be a little more suave, he could try directly negotiating with Trump on Syria. Shower him with flattery, commiserate with him about refugees/illegal immigrants, and offer him some "favorable trade deals" in return for leaving Syria, with the pitch that he won't be "wasting" the money spent on occupying a middle eastern country, AND hey, here's a NATO ally willing to step up and do their part to "fight terrorism" and build a buffer against Iran.

His generals would probably talk him out of it in the end, but it's worth a shot, at least.

Ramrod Hotshot
May 30, 2003

Herstory Begins Now posted:

To be a bit more serious and big-picture about this: it's open season on contractors now. That's a gently caress of a lot of dead contractors and I'm curious what percentage of the entire oil facility protection force that was. This is the first time we've seen both the US and Russia apparently agree openly that no one is going to start a war over dead PMCs. That's a big deal.

lol if you think the US wouldn't start a goddamn shitstorm over Russia killing some American contractors. Probably the easiest way to get Trump to change his tune real quick.

Ramrod Hotshot
May 30, 2003

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-43053617

France pretty much created Syria, they might as well get back in this clusterfuck.

Ramrod Hotshot
May 30, 2003

This will probably stop the Turkish invasion, at least until the Kurds start fighting pro-Assad forces.

Ramrod Hotshot
May 30, 2003

BBC posted:

Saudi Arabia says it will invest $64bn (£46bn) in developing its entertainment industry over the next decade.

The head of the General Entertainment Authority said 5,000 events were planned this year alone, including those by Maroon 5 and Cirque du Soleil.

Construction of the country's first opera house has also begun in Riyadh.
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-43152289

Is it stating the obvious that there's going to be blowback to this?

Ramrod Hotshot
May 30, 2003

Have the Taliban moderated at all to expand their appeal or are they still pretty much a bunch of dickheads?

Ramrod Hotshot
May 30, 2003

It's a false flag, how much more obvious could it be


- The video shows "a mine being removed" from the port side of the ship
- The damage is on the starboard side
- Which is the side facing Arabia, not Iran
- Which is where the crew reported the flying objects which caused the impacts coming from

Ramrod Hotshot
May 30, 2003

Are there any good documentaries about the Houthis, who they are and what they're trying to do? In the media it seems they only exist as an "Iranian proxy", having no further significance.

Ramrod Hotshot
May 30, 2003

Can anyone with more in depth knowledge than me of the two assassinated gentlemenexplain how this is such a big deal

Ramrod Hotshot
May 30, 2003

Is there any infrastructure on or around Al Asad (lol love the name) to defend against missiles, like Patriot batteries or something

Ramrod Hotshot
May 30, 2003


Any idea what's going on here? What kind of deal would Haftar even make with the GNA? Or did Putin just tell him "we're pulling our support, you're hosed"?

Ramrod Hotshot
May 30, 2003

On the most recent Chapo they mentioned a theory, I think gleaned from "Family of Secrets" about the Bush family, that Saudi Arabia buys expensive, cutting edge American weapons not for the purpose of ever actually using them but as insurance to get American military assistance in case of civil war, because these high tech weapons could fall into the hands of terrorists.

I hadn't ever considered that but it makes good sense. In a sick way of course, that will inevitably bite us in the rear end one day when a rogue prince has finally had enough of MBS's heavy handed rule.

Ramrod Hotshot
May 30, 2003

Smirking_Serpent posted:

so do any of the other frozen conflicts look like they might get hot?

yeah maybe

https://twitter.com/ReutersIran/status/1328948065714253824

Ramrod Hotshot
May 30, 2003

Who knows, but...

https://twitter.com/ejmalrai/status/1339971985250660356

Ramrod Hotshot
May 30, 2003

Yeah, not a lot of substance behind that tweet, but the fact that the Pentagon stopped briefing Biden all of a sudden makes the notion of a surprise parting shot at Iran interesting. Plus Pompeo sure was busy in the middle east in the aftermath of the election...

Ramrod Hotshot
May 30, 2003

9/11 but it won't be reported for two days

Ramrod Hotshot
May 30, 2003

TheRat posted:

Am I the only one who thinks a jovial bet on when a city falls is a touch distasteful?

You might even say it’s Something Awful

Ramrod Hotshot
May 30, 2003

I guess the Caro era happened in one of the brief windows of my life that I wasn't as terminally online, because I don't remember him or any of the threads he posted in. I got caught up with this podcast. It's no Radio War Nerd or even Chapo, but they give a pretty good overview of the course of events, including his posting: https://soundcloud.com/user-798629330/episode-93-kevin-patrick-dawes

edit: they claim he actually killed people in Libya, which even if he had no empathy to prevent him from doing so, I have to doubt he'd be competent enough to actually shoot at a person and hit them. Can anyone confirm?

Ramrod Hotshot fucked around with this message at 02:29 on Dec 13, 2021

Ramrod Hotshot
May 30, 2003

Al-Saqr posted:

big news, a big breakthrough deal agreeing to a two month ceasefire between KSA and the Houthis has been announced, the siege of Yemen is being lifted, the deal includes:-

- re-opening all ports and airports (especially Sanaa airport) under both sides to resume normal trade, shipping and travel purposes

- big prisoner transfers

-all military activity inside and outside the country to halt for two months with possible extension.

https://twitter.com/reuters/status/1509941215550230535?s=21&t=wXoWHV5Eyg4qKzgHMFxUSg

so in closing, KSA has lost the yemen war. the houthis are here to stay. Seven years of a disaster for nothing.

Does this mean the Houthis won the war though? Will they keep fighting the Southern Movement for control of Aden?

Ramrod Hotshot
May 30, 2003

What is this really about in Yemen? Is it a sort of quasi-recognition that the Houthis are here to stay?

https://twitter.com/cnni/status/1512090387485179907

Ramrod Hotshot
May 30, 2003

i say swears online posted:

why would a change in saudi puppet government signify that?

It's a sign that something is shifting, especially with the recent ceasefire.

Ramrod Hotshot
May 30, 2003

Done as in kaput or done as in completed?

https://twitter.com/ejmalrai/status/1519050488989245442

Ramrod Hotshot
May 30, 2003

Just catching up on the unfolding civil war in Sudan. What are the goals of this Hemedti guy and the RSF? Is this an attempted coup?

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Ramrod Hotshot
May 30, 2003

I’d really like to know more about Yemen and “the houthis”. In the media, they are always referred to as “the Iran-backed Houthi rebels”, leading one to believe they are marginal guerillas propped up by a foreign power. But here they are firing ballistic missiles and conducting complex naval raids. Do “the houthis” at this point constitute the de facto Yemen state and military? Is there any article or podcast that goes into depth about Yemen without resorting to cheap propaganda?

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