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Mooseontheloose
May 13, 2003

My Imaginary GF posted:


It depends why you're having folks call/knock. Generally, in Federal elections, IMO, good field can move between 3-6 points, or at least save 3-6 for you - enough to sway a close election - while advertisements get you 30 points. At the local level, field is what you live and die on. Every door you knock is another vote, and when the total votes cast for your seat is less than 5,000 or so, you have an opportunity to meet every single vote and get to know them by name.


This is also why targeting is so important. Knocking the right people gets you those points, knocking the wrong people gets you nothing.

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Stringent
Dec 22, 2004


image text goes here
You shitlords are loving awful.

Mooseontheloose
May 13, 2003

Stringent posted:

You shitlords are loving awful.

Could you be more specific?

DTaeKim
Aug 16, 2009

Hey, I've started to get involved in local politics by getting to know the candidate for state house in Indiana. We've offered to volunteer for his campaign even though he has an uphill battle in what I would consider deep red territory. Any words of advice?

Jackson Taus
Oct 19, 2011

DTaeKim posted:

Hey, I've started to get involved in local politics by getting to know the candidate for state house in Indiana. We've offered to volunteer for his campaign even though he has an uphill battle in what I would consider deep red territory. Any words of advice?

I mean, if he's got an experienced staff who've worked in the area before, step one is to listen to them. They might have a better sense than we would of what they need to do to win.

Fundamentally, most of the work of a campaign is arduous but necessary. Everybody wants to be a "policy consultant" or "help tweak messaging" but that's about 5% of the man-hours involved in a race, and the other 95% is stuff like making phone calls and knocking on doors and stuffing envelopes and so forth. If someone asks you to do that stuff it's not because they don't like you, it's because that's what's needed most of the time.

My Imaginary GF posted:

It depends why you're having folks call/knock. Generally, in Federal elections, IMO, good field can move between 3-6 points, or at least save 3-6 for you - enough to sway a close election - while advertisements get you 30 points. At the local level, field is what you live and die on. Every door you knock is another vote, and when the total votes cast for your seat is less than 5,000 or so, you have an opportunity to meet every single vote and get to know them by name.

Field is also more valuable in local races because it's more personal. In a statewide or national race, Field is some volunteer getting bussed into a swing precinct to read a script written by some dude in Brooklyn/Chicago/DC about a candidate they've never even seen. In a local race, canvassers are campaigning in their county/city/neighborhood for someone they've probably met and maybe even actually kind of know, which makes them more effective advocates.

Andpie1
Dec 29, 2012
I've worked in politics for the past few years and figured I'd spark the fire a little bit here on the yard sign discussion. While I don't think they're a huge difference maker, I think done well they can have a lot of value.

I worked on a state legislative campaign that knocked 100k+ attempts and by the end of the campaign there was not a neighborhood I knocked in that we didn't have a yard sign in. I think that's powerful in a down ballot race with low name-ID, where seeing someones yard sign on your commute might be one of your few impressions of a candidate. Obviously, this wouldn't work a race with a 50k budget, but if you have the money I think it's a valuable part of your field strategy.

The methodology of how you get those stakes in yards is also important. If you're just going to buy 100 yard signs and stick them in your office for your volunteers that's problematic. We incorporated the ask on supporter ID doors, and canvassers had 10 signs in their cars for when people said yes. Further, if people requested yard signs outside of that, we incorporated sign delivery into our turf cutting process, so we weren't just sending canvassers out to deliver signs.

I think voters are over-saturated with politics advertising from September on, and when your budget is comparatively small and you're not a race with significant news attention it's easy to get drowned out. Seeing a yard sign in your neighborhood is an authentic tap that at the very least raises name-ID, which is crucial in local leg races.

Mooseontheloose
May 13, 2003

DTaeKim posted:

Hey, I've started to get involved in local politics by getting to know the candidate for state house in Indiana. We've offered to volunteer for his campaign even though he has an uphill battle in what I would consider deep red territory. Any words of advice?

The more voters you contact the better. Make sure you doing lots of field and for the love god, talk to people who actually vote in local elections.

My Imaginary GF
Jul 17, 2005

by R. Guyovich

Andpie1 posted:

I've worked in politics for the past few years and figured I'd spark the fire a little bit here on the yard sign discussion. While I don't think they're a huge difference maker, I think done well they can have a lot of value.

I worked on a state legislative campaign that knocked 100k+ attempts and by the end of the campaign there was not a neighborhood I knocked in that we didn't have a yard sign in. I think that's powerful in a down ballot race with low name-ID, where seeing someones yard sign on your commute might be one of your few impressions of a candidate. Obviously, this wouldn't work a race with a 50k budget, but if you have the money I think it's a valuable part of your field strategy.

The methodology of how you get those stakes in yards is also important. If you're just going to buy 100 yard signs and stick them in your office for your volunteers that's problematic. We incorporated the ask on supporter ID doors, and canvassers had 10 signs in their cars for when people said yes. Further, if people requested yard signs outside of that, we incorporated sign delivery into our turf cutting process, so we weren't just sending canvassers out to deliver signs.

I think voters are over-saturated with politics advertising from September on, and when your budget is comparatively small and you're not a race with significant news attention it's easy to get drowned out. Seeing a yard sign in your neighborhood is an authentic tap that at the very least raises name-ID, which is crucial in local leg races.

I've been repeating a simple mantra for the past decade: Yardsigns don't vote*. People** vote. A few years ago, I tried doing a lit search on yardsigns. I only came across one peer-reviewed quantitative study on the impact of yardsigns, and from what I recall, there was a weak correlation significant at the p<.05 level between yardsigns vs no yardsigns in a local election race on the name recognition of the candidates.

In my view, yardsign proponents are like anti-vaxxers: they confuse correlation with causation. Winning candidates don't need their organization to distribute yardsigns. A good candidate should be inspirational enough that folk make their own yardsigns out of enthusiasm to support ya.

Now, like most of politics, these things aren't absolutes. However, once again, Yardsigns don't vote and your one job as a candidate is to capture enough votes from the right voters to win your race.

*Although signs may not vote, it may be possible to avoid coordinating with your media printing house - especially if they are unionized - and not agree to make a sufficiently large purchase with no guarantee of 500 - 2,000 manhours knocking doors or phonebanking on your behalf. Other campaign finance regulations and contribution limitation considerations may apply.

**Definition of person and eligability to vote or have the ballot counted may vary by location. Please contact your local secretary of state, election board, or county clerk for more details. Offer not valid in some jurisdictions such as American territories or for some classifications of American nationals. Terms and conditions subject to change.

My Imaginary GF
Jul 17, 2005

by R. Guyovich
Yardsign story time:

Last general, I was with rural party organizations in traditionally blue counties. Number one priority for these orgs, time and again, was getting yardsigns printed, generating lists for distribution, and dropping the signs up. You'd have anywhere from 5 to 30 folk focused on yardsigns at these meetings.

Those counties ain't blue no more.

IMO successful party orgs, especially at the local level, serve two functions:

1. Generating data to pass up

Small towns mean small social networks. You can assign prospects, registered voters, and leaners to a specific influencer most likely to get the target to do what you want. However, to do this, you need to know who knows who, who's coming to your events, and why folk are going. Oftentimes, the local party org is too lazy to even have a sign-in sheet or record of contributions. When nobody signs in to events, no influencers can be assigned to hit them up. When nobody hits up prospects, nobody hires professional staff. And without profesionals, a campaign is poo poo.

2. Ensure legal compliance for state power brokers

Contribution limits exist for a reason, and all levels of party organizations should keep thorough records of campaign finances in order to ensure that one individual does not give a direct contribution to a campaign greater than the legally allowed amount within the jurisdiction, epecially not a contribution sufficient enough to pay for one or more professional staffers for an election cycle.



There is one good use for yardsigns I can think of: avoiding loving up. Unfortunately, some folk still manage to.

Candidate or their spouse a loser? Director of Yardsign Distribution. Get sent someone's developmentally disabled, mentally ill, or immature cousin/partner/child? Yardsign Distribution Associate. Official side intern hits on the DCoS like an incel? Assistant to the Director of Yardsign Distribution.

My Imaginary GF fucked around with this message at 01:43 on May 18, 2018

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DTaeKim
Aug 16, 2009

Thanks for the input. He's hoping to use us to help his name out in our area because he lives 30 minutes away and can't necessarily make the drive to meet and greet potential voters weekly. I don't know if he's done this before, but I get the impression he's done his homework.

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