2018 Forever Midterms Official Thread: congrats mr. president on your victory

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > C-SPAM > 2018 Forever Midterms Official Thread: congrats mr. president on your victory

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get that OUT of my face: Feb 10, 2007

i think more high-ranking democrats than we think have gotten tired of tying their political fortunes to losers like the clintons and want to do things on their own terms (which may or may not be different than the direction that they've gone in for the past quarter-century... oh who am i kidding, there's no "may not" about it). there was a lot of shuddering among them when hillary released her book where she said she effectively learned nothing, and even a lot of people in congress from NY said she needs to shut up and they won't support her if she runs again

but that's for 2020. in 2018 i think both Paul Ryan and Ted Cruz will lose. Ryan's Democratic challenger is actually pretty good imo. he's Randy Bryce, a union iron worker who can stand on the bankruptcy of republican efforts to gently caress over healthcare due to his mom dying of cancer. he's getting a lot of support and exposure from the Working Families Party, who started up their branch in Wisconsin only two years ago. plus, Ryan has been shown to be really unpopular in his district and polls have him with only a very narrow lead

as for Cruz, i think O'Rourke will get the Dem nomination and thump him. some parts of Texas were the only parts of the country in 2016 where Democrats flipped counties from red to blue, and that was with a lovely candidate like Hillary. he's pro-Medicare For All so that's a huge plus

# ¿ Jan 5, 2018 06:49

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# ¿ May 11, 2024 20:23

get that OUT of my face: Feb 10, 2007

ScrubLeague posted:

Rural Texas whites will not vote for someone named Beto. Cruz will be back because he triggers the libs.

Cruz is like Ryan in that his home state doesn't like him. the most spiteful white people live in the exurbs and not the rural parts, but as a whole, the GOP is losing some sway even there. it's increasingly looking like the only reason they can stay in power is because Texas is rigged to hell and back

on the other hand, "Texan" is shorthand for "dumb white Southern rear end in a top hat" so there's a good chance i'll be wrong

anime was right posted:

dems gonna lose by like 2 seats because they're garbage idiots

i think they'll win the House but definitely not by some ridiculous margin. i'll go with a 10 to 15 seat majority

also, hardly any House gains will be made in blue states with seats held by Republicans, on account that every idiot Democrat in that district will run in the primary and ensure that the shittiest candidate will win. example: i've looked over the candidates in the district held by Dan Donovan and the only guy who looks any good is some guy who makes props for TV shows. everyone else is NYPD or a veteran

get that OUT of my face has issued a correction as of 07:20 on Jan 5, 2018

# ¿ Jan 5, 2018 07:15

get that OUT of my face: Feb 10, 2007

Notorious R.I.M. posted:

Cornyn is a total shithead but he at least tries to be a Texan for whatever that is worth. Cruz makes no such attempts and is probably one of the more forgettable incumbents among his constituency.

Ted Cruz is a lot of things but "forgettable" isn't one of them. he is smug and entitled as hell, though

# ¿ Jan 5, 2018 07:25

get that OUT of my face: Feb 10, 2007

Comrayn posted:

I like that Beto is touring the state and visiting areas politicians usually wouldn’t even stop to use the bathroom in but I don’t know how many votes it will get him.

it'll get him a good amount. actually showing up to in areas that are typically ignored means a lot to the people living there. part of the reason why Doug Jones won was because he did a lot of outreach to black voters that Alabama democrats took for granted. as a result, he won more black voters than Obama got in 2012

Frijolero posted:

Beto still dips into bipartisan, wonky bullshit and he is not an authentically lifelong diehard progressive like Bernie or someone like Raul Grijalva, but his recent focus on "Berniecrat" campaigning and policies is good.

back in April Beto said he was pro-Medicare for All but didn't think it would ever happen. now he's endorsed it fully. at the very least he seems to know where the political winds are blowing

# ¿ Jan 5, 2018 22:12

get that OUT of my face: Feb 10, 2007

Yinlock posted:

that's why the dsa are doing god's work and primarying the poo poo out of them

about the only race i know where a leftie dem is pulling his weight is Randy Bryce in Ryan's district. i heard of this guy in NJ-3 named Kim but his credentials are a bit of a mixed bag

no idea about primaries though

# ¿ Jan 20, 2018 21:05

get that OUT of my face: Feb 10, 2007

is there any momentum to Ryan retiring before the midterm elections? that was reported a month or so ago and the wave of house republicans quitting has only increased since then

# ¿ Jan 21, 2018 18:41

get that OUT of my face: Feb 10, 2007

dems have seemingly hitched their wagon to Max Rose for Dan Donovan's seat mostly located in staten island. he's underwhelming but he sure loves playing up the vet credentials. at least he's not NYPD like some of the other candidates?

remember: the more democrats there are in a primary, the more likely it is the crap will rise to the top

# ¿ Jan 22, 2018 19:42

get that OUT of my face: Feb 10, 2007

i recently learned that charlie dent is retiring. i went to college in his district and it was an obsession to flip the district to blue. he never got a good challenger. back in 2008, the democrat was a woman who was married to the college's men's soccer coach in the mid-90s. she ended up loving a bunch of players on the team and got caught

# ¿ Jan 26, 2018 07:07

get that OUT of my face: Feb 10, 2007

LinYutang posted:

Doesn't matter how ppl wonksplain around it, people are gonna pay less taxes this year and they're hearing about Foxconn in Wisconsin

a ton of large companies laid off people after the tax bill passed. hearing a few companies here and there expanding hiring because of it means nothing if you don't live in those areas and got told to get hosed by a walmart or a comcast

# ¿ Jan 26, 2018 07:25

get that OUT of my face: Feb 10, 2007

i wouldn't be surprised if Hillary ran again, but when her "why i did nothing wrong" book came out, the scuttlebutt was that Democrats wanted her to just shut up already. even a few people in NY's congressional delegation said they wouldn't support her if she tried again

i doubt they'd let Sanders run in the primary again, but i'll take Warren in a pinch

gobbagool posted:

100%. I already have a bet with the guy who lost $200 to me in 2016 on Trump v. Hillary that Trump will beat Hillary again in 2020. He never paid up, though I told him either he pay up or I'm making a donation to the NRA in his name

you're like Arzy except you live in upstate New York and post worse

# ¿ Jan 26, 2018 23:03

get that OUT of my face: Feb 10, 2007

U-DO Burger posted:

I would be surprised if Hillary ran again. I doubt she wants to relive what was probably the most horrifying year of her life

she still thinks she did everything right, but that sexist bernie and that manspreading putin screwed her. she's that much of an entitled idiot to try again

but, that's a 2020 issue. for 2018, Stephanie Miner decided she'd rather run for governor instead of challenging Katko for his congressional seat. while i appreciate that somebody wants to actually get in the way of Cuomo, she'd stand a much better chance against Katko

btw there was a special election for the Wisconsin Senate a couple days ago and the democrat beat the republican in a district that trump won by 16 points. somehow there aren't term limits in that state so Walker can run for a third term. keep an eye on state elections too, there's sure to be even more change down there

# ¿ Jan 27, 2018 00:07

get that OUT of my face: Feb 10, 2007

deep blue states aren't going to turn the tide. california is going to elect someone who sucks as governor, cuomo will be re-elected easily in new york even though i'd be hard-pressed to find anybody who's in the 62% approval for him, and as much as people like to play up phil murphy's progressive credentials in new jersey, he's still ex-goldman sachs (which ultimately bit jon corzine in the rear end and set the stage for eight years of christie) and beat a much better candidate in the primary

i'd say to pay no attention to anything that goes on in CA or NY, but there's still the matter of the state senate in NY, which is dumb as hell as things stand now

# ¿ Jan 27, 2018 00:28

get that OUT of my face: Feb 10, 2007

i asked my friend who moved to Jersey City a few months ago about whether bob menendez has a challenger and his answer was "not really." that doesn't surprise me. even taking away his corruptness he's still poo poo. he's even worse than booker ffs

Over Easy posted:

This scenario is so plausible I can't believe it!

Really, gently caress the IDC

if you wanna vent, i made a thread dedicated to our state's wonderful politics right here

# ¿ Jan 27, 2018 00:36

get that OUT of my face: Feb 10, 2007

Fallen Hamprince posted:

unironic belief that hillary will run again is a sure sign that one suffers from incurable succbrains

i think she's dumb and stubborn enough to do it but i don't think she'll win the nomination if she does

# ¿ Jan 28, 2018 19:17

get that OUT of my face: Feb 10, 2007

Larry Parrish posted:

they wont turn the tide because the vaunted strongholds of the democratic party are where all the most unlikable jackasses crawl out of

a good way of boiling down my post to one sentence

# ¿ Jan 28, 2018 19:34

get that OUT of my face: Feb 10, 2007

logikv9 posted:

she won't run but you're going to hear from her for as long as you live

heck maybe she might do a speech or two for dark blue-state Dems, she has high approval ratings for Dems and Dems alone

that's probably accurate and moderately less irritating than her running again

# ¿ Jan 28, 2018 19:40

get that OUT of my face: Feb 10, 2007

Frijolero posted:

Bernie Jr. pls defeat the vampire Paul Ryan

https://twitter.com/IronStache/status/962753156609437696

god i love his twitter handle

edit:

https://twitter.com/StevenTDennis/status/957965890355593216

get that OUT of my face has issued a correction as of 22:31 on Feb 11, 2018

# ¿ Feb 11, 2018 20:14

get that OUT of my face: Feb 10, 2007

intra-party opposition to right-wing democrat Dan Lipinski is heating up

quote:

Lipinski has secured critical support from the AFL-CIO but the backing of both SEIU and EMILY�s List � a major force in supporting women who support abortion rights � is likely to boost her resources and ability to get out her message. Lipinski has more than $1.6 million in the bank, compared to Newman�s $236,000. Today, Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand is fundraising for Newman in Chicago.

...

Last month, two of Lipinski�s Chicago-area colleagues, Reps. Jan Schakowsky and Luis Guti�rrez, broke with congressional custom and endorsed Newman.

Other Newman backers include NARAL, MoveOn.org, Democracy for America, the Progressive Change Campaign Committee and the Human Rights Campaign.

# ¿ Feb 12, 2018 01:04

get that OUT of my face: Feb 10, 2007

Shear Modulus posted:

Gillibrand supporting the primary challenger is pretty interesting.

for all the poo poo she gets, gillibrand has been going steadily left since she got to the senate, and she's kicked it into another level after trump got elected. she consponsored Medicare for All and talked about making the minimum wage $15 and legalizing weed up in Buffalo. i'm pretty sure that she also talked about overturning Citizens United but i'm not 100% sure

she's still not my first choice in 2020 but at least she's showing she knows where the winds are blowing

get that OUT of my face has issued a correction as of 02:34 on Feb 12, 2018

# ¿ Feb 12, 2018 01:14

get that OUT of my face: Feb 10, 2007

Ramrod Hotshot posted:

I could vote Gillibrand, if Bernie doesn't run.

Are there any 2020 dems who are even slightly somewhat critical of our global military empire

no

edit: perfect timing, here's a write-up of Gillibrand's 60 Minutes interview. apparently she was pretty anti-immigrant as well

i'd link a piece about how an eighth of Dan Donovan's campaign funding has come from unions, but it's behind a registration wall. the account is free but effort

get that OUT of my face has issued a correction as of 03:19 on Feb 13, 2018

# ¿ Feb 13, 2018 03:10

get that OUT of my face: Feb 10, 2007

i signed up for the website that had this article so i can put the text of it right here

quote:

Unions shore up New York City's lone GOP congressman
Organized labor PAC donations outstrip business interests' investment in Dan Donovan

Organized labor is putting its muscle behind the only Republican representing the five boroughs in Congress.

Almost one-eighth of the $872,262.66 Rep. Dan Donovan amassed last year came from union-affiliated political action committees, the latest filings with the Federal Election Commission show�and labor-connected entities make up the bulk of his biggest donors.

Particularly generous were the National Air Traffic Controllers Association, the International Union of Operating Engineers and the United Transit Union, which each gave $7,500. The Amalgamated Transit Union donated $6,000 and unions affiliated with the U.S. Postal Service wrote checks for a collective $9,500.

Donovan also received $5,000 each from PACs connected to the United Brotherhood of Carpenters, the International Longshoremen�s Association, the Communication Workers of America, the International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers and the United Association of Journeymen and Apprentices of the Plumbing, Pipefitting and Sprinkler Fitting Industry.

The only entities to donate comparably large amounts to the congressman�s campaign were the PACs of his GOP House colleagues, three industry-connected committees (the National Multifamily Housing Council PAC, the American Hospital Association PAC and the Council of Insurance Agents and Brokers PAC) and a smattering of individual donors from the fields of business and finance. The latter category included $5,400 from hedge-fund manager Daniel Loeb, $5,400 from billionaire investor Robert Ziff, $5,400 from private-security magnate Robert Tucker, $5,400 from developer Joseph Cayre and $5,400 from David Rich of the Greater New York Hospital Association.

Donovan�s Staten Island and southern Brooklyn constituency is perhaps the most heavily unionized in the nation, with around a third of all residents belonging to an organized labor local. Its predominantly white residents often hold conservative social but left-of-center fiscal views, and unions have historically maintained tight ties with its Republican and somewhat conservative Democratic elected officials.

The holder of the Staten Island congressional seat has often proven valuable to both business and labor in New York by providing a voice for city interests in the GOP conference, which has controlled the House for 19 of the past 23 years.

Endangering that value is Donovan�s Republican primary challenger, Michael Grimm, who held the seat from 2011 until 2015, when he pleaded guilty to felony tax evasion and was forced to resign by then-Speaker John Boehner.

A former union darling himself, Grimm is out of prison and running a hard-right campaign assailing Donovan for his votes against the 2017 tax reform package and the repeal of the Affordable Care Act.

On the Democratic side of the race, a raft of challengers have emerged, hoping to ride a blue wave in the fall attributable to President Donald Trump�s record unpopularity. They include Army veteran Max Rose, Marine Corps veteran Michael De Vito and former NYPD Officer Michael DeCillis, among others.

Nonetheless, the Cook Political Report has continued to rank Donovan�s district as �likely Republican,� its second safest rating.

staten island is very dumb and very spiteful

# ¿ Feb 13, 2018 03:50

get that OUT of my face: Feb 10, 2007

is Tulsi interested in running in 2020 or shown any interest in doing so?

Gringostar posted:

whitepeople.txt

unions for me but not for thee. idk if that includes police unions because there are so goddamn many cops on that awful island hellhole

# ¿ Feb 13, 2018 04:03

get that OUT of my face: Feb 10, 2007

btw if anyone has info on state-level races, particularly on the legislative level, post 'em here. that's where the better candidates will rise up and make more of a difference than young opportunistic go-getters who want to pounce on the first vulnerable congressional seat that comes their way

Shear Modulus posted:

the people who make electoral political decisions at the old big unions are often professional administrators with no connection or accountability to the rank and file who will decide to back lovely-but-favored-to-win incumbents for fear of losing access. usually this manifests as backing a hillary over a bernie or this example of the illinois race from a couple days ago but i guess also apparently a republican (wtf?)

somebody made a long post about the subway transit workers in NYC siding with the governor over the mayor, in spite of the fact that the governor has all the power over the transit authority. long story short, it's shortsightedness and a belief that the boss might be their friend, even though they did support bernie in the primary

# ¿ Feb 13, 2018 05:03

get that OUT of my face: Feb 10, 2007

i think a lot of newly left-wing democrats are opportunists. that's why we gotta be very careful in 2020, and why i'd go with Warren over the rest of the field bar Bernie (who probably won't be allowed to run as a dem)

# ¿ Feb 13, 2018 05:20

get that OUT of my face: Feb 10, 2007

Kansas has learned nothing from Air Bud

quote:

Kansas officials say a dog whose owner filed for the animal to run for governor will be disqualified, even though there are no state statutes covering candidates' qualifications.

The Kansas City Star reports that Terran Woolley of Hutchinson, Kan., entered his three-year-old wire terrier, Angus, in the race after news reports surfaced that the state does not have requirements governing who can run for the office.

�A dog will not be allowed to file and put its name on the ballot,� said Bryan Caskey, director of elections for the Kansas secretary of State�s office.

# ¿ Feb 14, 2018 01:00

get that OUT of my face: Feb 10, 2007

politico has a good article about the young, mostly progressive challengers to old, mostly moderate democrats in places like NYC, Massachusetts, and Chicago. for some bonus points: spot the profiled challenger that doesn't belong!

one of those established democrats getting a challenge, Joe Crowley, has also been trying to establish himself as a would-be leader of House dems, but he's probably tilting at windmills. pelosi is poo poo and needs to step aside as leader, but at the very least, she talked about protecting immigrants for eight hours on the House floor, so she's taken more of a stand on an issue than crowley has

# ¿ Feb 15, 2018 04:55

get that OUT of my face: Feb 10, 2007

Agean90 posted:

crowley let himself get sidelined by boomers in exchange for the vague promise of oneday being given power. guy is an absolute dipshit and he's gonna have all the stuff thats "his" taken by some young progressive lol

by the time pelosi's gangs of 70-somethings are out of power in the house, the political tide will have turned against people like crowley. i was surprised at the amount of house democrats getting a primary challenge this year, i figured it was close to nothing

# ¿ Feb 16, 2018 03:56

get that OUT of my face: Feb 10, 2007

Crowsbeak posted:

Going to be fun if even a few get through because that would definitely make some waves, hell I bet some of the news media might hype it because a interparty civil war would probably get more hits.

i think lipinski is going to lose because he's got two members of Chicago's house members actively supporting one of his challengers. i doubt that any of the NYC-based members will lose. tbh i think Patel is a bit of an underwhelming candidate. i can't explain why, but he just strikes me as less of a credible left challenger than the other two

# ¿ Feb 16, 2018 04:04

get that OUT of my face: Feb 10, 2007

Sheng-Ji Yang posted:

https://twitter.com/mcpli/status/969745418899935232

More democrats have early voted in TX than republicans lmao

fun fact: trump has a sub-40% approval rating in texas. it may be a bloodbath there on the state level, to say nothing of ted cruz possibly getting upset

# ¿ Mar 3, 2018 05:02

get that OUT of my face: Feb 10, 2007

In the past couple of days I've gotten emails from both the Working Families Party and the Progressive Change Campaign Committee over candidates for Congress that they've endorsed. I'll have to cross-reference with Our Revolution and Justice Democrats and make the list bigger, but there's sure to be plenty of overlap.

Katie Wilson (NY-21)
Andy Kim (NJ-03)
Greg Edwards (PA-07)
Jess King (PA-11)
Liz Watson (IN-09)
Rashida Tlaib (MI-13)
Randy Bryce (WI-01)
Kara Eastman (NE-02)
Brent Welder (KS-03)
Veronica Escobar (TX-16)
Katie Porter (CA-45)
Mike Levin (CA-49)
Ammar Campa-Najjar (CA-50)
Kaniela Ing (HI-01)

James Thompson is also running again in KS-04, and Moser has a runoff election in her Texas district in May.

# ¿ Mar 23, 2018 21:19

get that OUT of my face: Feb 10, 2007

Cruz/O'Rourke currently too close to call

# ¿ Apr 19, 2018 03:24

get that OUT of my face: Feb 10, 2007

i think that they'll win in 2018, but expect the blue dogs that ride this wave to all but be wiped out come 2022, assuming that trump is one-term. history repeats itself yet again

# ¿ Jul 10, 2018 05:43

get that OUT of my face: Feb 10, 2007

Sheng-Ji Yang posted:

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/07/30/upshot/99-days-till-midterm-elections-battleground.html

decent article on the midterms. seems optimistic for the dems

dems are doing better in rural and working class areas than previously thought.

if this article ends up being right, it'll be hilarious that the house majority will come from areas largely written off by the DCCC instead of the ones that are a priority because hillary won them in 2016. it's an good learning opportunity if they want to take it, but i doubt they will

# ¿ Jul 31, 2018 05:11

get that OUT of my face: Feb 10, 2007

Sheng-Ji Yang posted:

https://twitter.com/jakehonig/status/1029058751603585029

The Guile Cosplayer State

# ¿ Aug 20, 2018 03:18

get that OUT of my face: Feb 10, 2007

btw here's a nice map of various good democrats who have won their primaries. i don't think all of them will win in the general but it's nice to see this many people get this far

# ¿ Aug 21, 2018 04:16

get that OUT of my face: Feb 10, 2007

i heard that republican voter enthusiasm is almost at the level of democrats, which is concerning for both the congressional and state elections. never look at head-to-heads, always look at that

# ¿ Oct 13, 2018 15:17

get that OUT of my face: Feb 10, 2007

pretty sure sheng posted an article itt about how the districts that went for hillary two years ago are doing worse than expected, while afterthought races are doing better than expected. i keep getting emails from katie porter's campaign and she's up by 2 points

# ¿ Oct 13, 2018 20:46

get that OUT of my face: Feb 10, 2007

beto o'rourke seems like he'd be fairly decent as a senator and all ted cruz has on him in his attack ads is "he was in a rock band!" and "he cusses!" but considering this is texas and people there are dumber than anywhere else in america, they probably won't care and re-elect the living ventriloquist dummy

Mokelumne Trekka posted:

I like how Dems are excited for the Dem-controlled House to demand Trumps taxes....

...I sure hope Dem House can do way more impactful poo poo because no Trump supporter gives a crap about his returns no matter how egregious, it will be forgotten in days

i'll give these dem candidates credit, not even the lamest of them seem to be running on russia and tax returns

my rep in congress, jerrold nadler, stands to be the chair of the house committee charged with starting any potential impeachment proceedings. he seems like he's not interested in doing so at the moment. i kind of understand, but if things get worse, he'd better get off his rear end

get that OUT of my face has issued a correction as of 00:08 on Oct 19, 2018

# ¿ Oct 19, 2018 00:03

get that OUT of my face: Feb 10, 2007

Azathoth posted:

First, he's not gotten involved in pushing specific legislation except at Ryan or McConnell's behest, and he hasn't publicly tried to get them to put legislation through that they're not on board with. He also hasn't threatened a veto of anything with significant GOP support.

that's a positive for him? it hasn't gotten much of anything done

# ¿ Oct 20, 2018 18:38

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# ¿ May 11, 2024 20:23

get that OUT of my face: Feb 10, 2007

i heard that beto's campaign strategy was questionable but not to the extent that his advertisements are as bad as ted cruz's

Business Gorillas posted:

Kinda owns how whenever dems get a massive war chest, they seem to immediately squander it on overpolished musicals and stupid bullshit that doesn't speak to anyone's actual wants or needs

the kicker is that beto isn't taking corporate money, so he's doing the equivalent of taking the money of thousands of people who donated and making a bonfire out of it

get that OUT of my face has issued a correction as of 05:11 on Oct 23, 2018

# ¿ Oct 23, 2018 01:02

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > C-SPAM > 2018 Forever Midterms Official Thread: congrats mr. president on your victory

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