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Frijolero posted:Despite their best efforts, the Democrats are going to make good gains this year. will trump was literally trying to lose the election and still won so I guess it's only proper that the dems do the same
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Jan 5, 2018 03:44
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prediction: Senate R: 52 (48(D/I) House: R: 205 D 230 Gov: 25-25 (Cordray wins in OH)
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Nov 1, 2018 04:12
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ofc come election night the republicans hold onto the house by 3 or somethig
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Nov 1, 2018 04:15
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crazy cloud posted:beto is gonna lose and texas is the reason Cruz +7
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Nov 1, 2018 05:06
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Elephanthead posted:Why Dems can't take the Senate, there are 50 states and 30 of them are mostly CHUD, yet those 30 states only hold 20% of the population. You are hosed forever unless you are willing to risk your comfortable shitposting chair. if you want to be happier, by 2040 70% of US population will be living in 15 states (you can guess which ones) which means 30% will vote for 70% of senators (you can guess their demography and party identification)
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Nov 1, 2018 15:38
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galenanorth posted:the US would be better off if we abolished the Senate. Seeing as how the US has been held together by the military not letting anyone leave since the Civil War, and representation isn't afforded to the territories for the same reason, there isn't any reason for the Sherman Compromise anymore if we could somehow end it, but that's not going to happen. So we should go all-in and admit even Guam as a state, plus two Senate seats for Native Americans if they want them Just make the US senate look more like the Canadian senate it can delay bills from the house and send it down for revisions a few times but otherwise if the house wants to pass something it passes. Maybe let it keep its power to confirm cabinet/judicial appointees, but render it mostly irrelevant for legislations. Typo has issued a correction as of 15:57 on Nov 1, 2018 |
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Nov 1, 2018 15:55
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galenanorth posted:I changed my mind and they should keep the Senate, but it should use the same districts as the House but with the six-year staggered term limits and 60% vote threshholds enforced constitutionally, because there's value in making legislation hard to pass and thereby allowing longer-term plans more time to work then literally nothing ever passes, I don't think you can get 60% for anything in the house as is
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Nov 1, 2018 16:53
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basically the thing americans refuse to accept because they think that the US government is best in the world is that parliamentary systems are superior for the 21st century. What america actually wants is a 5-6 party system and coalition governments in parliament, then the dem-socialists can vote for the DSA and divorce themselves from the democrats entirely, and the TRUMP blue-collar whites can ditch the Paul Ryan types, so you have the socialist party-Democrats-Kasich Republicans-Christian ted cruz party-Trump nationalist white people's party on the american political spectrum but in real life americans all think they want a third party but are too dumb to figure out that 3rd parties can't exist for any length of time in america because of how the electoral system is designed, so the broken 18th century system keeps shambling forward Typo has issued a correction as of 17:25 on Nov 1, 2018 |
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Nov 1, 2018 17:01
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Azathoth posted:Remember that up until 1913, Senators were not directly elected by popular vote, they were elected by each state's legislature. They were always intended to be an only semi-democratic check on the House of Representatives, who it was assumed would not be able to govern effectively because they'd be beholden to the popular rabble. it didn't work out because the selection process by the legislature was incredibly corrupt, popular election for senators was a reaction against what amounted to outright bribery to buy senate seats
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Nov 1, 2018 17:02
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Thoguh posted:I'm with you on a parlimentary system being way better but lol that you think Kasich isn't an extremist just because he's polite. all things are relative comrade
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Nov 1, 2018 17:24
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Sheng-Ji Yang posted:I don't want this because it just absolutely neuters everyone and you end up with neolib centrists running everything into the ground leaving no choice but the far right. See: Europe in Europe center-left parties are rapidly losing votes to the far-left parties, you can't have this in a 2-party system. Instead you have what amounts to informal elections called primaries to determine the composition of the left/right coalition. But primaries are much easier to tilt in favor of the incumbents (so the neolib centrists you are talking about) than general elections (lower turnouts etc) so change occurs much slower and with much more difficulty. And the results are less efficient (the losers tend to get nothing). Further more, at the end of the day something like 25-50% of the -winning- party is gonna hate the ballot they are casting and feel like their candidate isn't left/right enough for them. I don't see the advantage in the American system.
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Nov 1, 2018 17:40
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AFancyQuestionMark posted:What? The typical criticism of Proportionally Representative parliamentary systems is that any coalition is likely to be beholden to the whims of tiny extremist parties to maintain its majority. Because in a hypothetical DSA-Democrat parliamentary coalition, the DSA is going to have real leverage over the government and shoot down any privatisation, tux cuts, etc. also the dsa, or -some- kind of bernie social democratic/dem-soc (dun wanna get into it) party isn't gonna be tiny fringe party, they would prob be 20-25% of the legislature
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Nov 1, 2018 17:51
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Azathoth posted:The key is to have enough votes to play kingmaker, and it doesn't even require a parliamentary system. The Freedom Caucus does this really effectively by voting as a group and resisting leadership pulling votes off one by one. It effectively gives them veto power on any party line legislation. if you believe that endorsing medicare for all is a proxy for the dem left, they are up to 139 in the house and 20 or so in the senate
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Nov 1, 2018 18:23
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AFancyQuestionMark posted:Except, this isn't the 19th century anymore, political movements and ideas can garner support across state lines, just like gay marriage and marijuana legalization or whatever. Don't most states offer several constitutional amendments on the ballot for each election? I don't see why altering the state's electoral system can't be one of them. also you did have significant electoral reform movements across state lines in the progressive era 100 years ago: popular election for the senate and instituting primaries as ways of selecting party candidates are 2 examples you see it today with the movement against gerrymendering and the EC
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Nov 1, 2018 18:45
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jBrereton posted:Reminder that the german equivalent of the dems literally went into government with the german republicans twice in the last 20 instead of working with the DSA and Greens, which they could have but chose not to for similar reasons the Dems would do so today. 1) The US left is basically in permanent state of this type of coalition with the center-left/centrist party as is, just with less power 2) The SDP/CDU coalition actually ended up implementing a bunch of left reforms like min wage increases, and the SDP got a lot of cabinet posts. Which is more than what a progressive democrat caucus would get from the rest of the democrats in congress under similar circumstances (see 2008-10). 3) More importantly, the voter have a mechanism which can and does punish the SDP for being in a grand coalition (see sdp vote share continue to plummet) by voting for De Linke (dem-soc) or the Greens. In US the mechanism basically amounts to primaries: which are low turnout elections going against the incumbent that's stacked against the challenger. Between the two systems, it's much easier and more realistic under a parliamentary system to punish a party for actions its voters do not want. Typo has issued a correction as of 19:44 on Nov 1, 2018 |
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Nov 1, 2018 19:42
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Shear Modulus posted:Texas isn't particularly a swing state but Dems constantly eating poo poo in Florida, Ohio, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and constantly getting obliterated in supposed safe blue states for governor elections is hosed up. governorships don't rely on partisanship nearly as much as federal elections
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Nov 1, 2018 21:56
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lol @ democrats 
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Nov 2, 2018 05:01
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Lawman 0 posted:Hugin has a shitton of momentum because of this garbage. Tbf in 2012 cook also said hawaii senate race was a tossup but still gdi dems
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Nov 2, 2018 14:07
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anime was right posted:the worst part is despite the horrible corruption menendez, as far as senators go, isnt that bad lol I'm still miffed that he won his primary
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Nov 2, 2018 16:21
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Al! posted:are there any dems that dont? most democrats in senate upported the iranian nuclear deal https://graphics.wsj.com/table/IranDealWhipList_0815
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Nov 2, 2018 17:28
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til ppl who don't understand stats and think 70%==100%
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Nov 2, 2018 19:38
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menendez is basically dead had there being a hillary presidency lol
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Nov 2, 2018 22:38
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Sheng-Ji Yang posted:https://twitter.com/PoliticsReid/status/1058532803263062019?s=19 stop comparing poo poo to 2014 lol you want to compare to 2016 at absolute minimum if the operating theory is more turnout = more dem than you have to consider AZ being +5 with presidential level turnouts Typo has issued a correction as of 05:34 on Nov 3, 2018 |
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Nov 3, 2018 05:32
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Peanut President posted:even if the dems win they're not gonna do anything subpoena kushner
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Nov 3, 2018 05:35
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Sheng-Ji Yang posted:yeah the article mentions its "almost at 2016 levels!!" which is, uh, not good news? I guess az has gotten bluer in the last 2 years and it might be more blue at the congressional than presidential level (because lol hillary is hated), but its solid tossup and "as is" turnout doesn't move it into blue territory
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Nov 3, 2018 08:31
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Apraxin posted:I think the ev so far is genuinely encouraging for the dems, but the same was true in 16 - the smarter wonks who do individual state results were all ‘if my analysis is correct, hillary leads by a couple of points, so trump will need to have a blowout Election Day and win big with indies!’ and it turned out they were right, but also he did. yeah at the end of the day today's elections in america are equivalent to playing poker because the two sides are so closely matched: you could have the best hand and make the best plays and still lose. So much is outside of the control of either party's campaigns and dependent on what amounts to random poo poo like "oops controversy popup about candidate X at exact right time" , or ILLEGAL ALIEN MS-666 ISIS CARAVAN. Typo has issued a correction as of 21:05 on Nov 3, 2018 |
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Nov 3, 2018 21:03
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Typo has issued a correction as of 04:45 on Nov 4, 2018 |
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Nov 4, 2018 04:38
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get that OUT of my face posted:the difference between two years ago and now is the enthusiasm gap, which was dismally large against the democrats. a month ago, republican enthusiasm was close to democrats due to the kavanaugh circus. even then, that looked like it wasn't going to help much for the house, though it made the senate safer. now with the events of the last couple weeks, those gains look to be erased I don't think there is ever a big enthusiasm gap nowadays, the main reason being that if one side looks to be mobilized it mobilizes the other side automatically
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Nov 4, 2018 04:40
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Peanut President posted:Like literally the entire campaign between Donnely and Braun is over the fact that Donnely owns some company that uses mexican labor and Braun's auto supply company imports parts from china. That's it. That's the whole conflict. Literally that futurama presidential debate but instead of "going too far" it's two right wing white dudes saying "my opponent offshores jobs" TRUMP
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Nov 4, 2018 20:12
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yeah but still gonna cheer for donelly he's party line vote every time it matters
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Nov 4, 2018 20:13
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Lawman 0 posted:It's incredible how bad these senators are Indiana is R+20 state so dun expect anything lol
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Nov 4, 2018 22:07
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Shear Modulus posted:its because she has the same last name as the tv president
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Nov 5, 2018 04:38
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red states democrat senators are 70% correct 30% wrong
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Nov 5, 2018 16:52
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oh god bill mitchell's twitter acct if the dems don't take the house
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Nov 5, 2018 17:35
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TraderStav posted:I posted this in the TRUMP thread but forgot that it's more relevant here: yeah I guess god is a GOP voter (values voter etc) so god's divine will prob R+1 to the popular vote
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Nov 5, 2018 17:51
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really queer Christmas posted:I have faith the dumbest poo poo will happen TRUMP
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Nov 5, 2018 19:40
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Old Story posted:Red Wave incoming tomorrow because the polls systematically underrepresent the core voting block of REAL AMERICA: scared elderly racists
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Nov 5, 2018 22:17
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According to the genuises on betting markets: Flordia looks good for Dems Missouri looks bad AZ looks bad NV looks good for Dems Beto/TN are bad for Dems
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Nov 5, 2018 22:18
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Xelkelvos posted:Dems are gonna take the sennate back by 1, but one of them will be Manchin who'll just side with the Republicans making it effectively 50-50 again. manchin only does that when vote is not actually deciding
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Nov 5, 2018 22:54
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| # ¿ May 11, 2024 13:18 |
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https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1059564669080399872 https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1059565204097429509
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Nov 5, 2018 23:01
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