|
Darkman Fanpage posted:https://twitter.com/ridvanbolgi/status/1181974994374549506?s=19 there's actually still a very good reason not to do that, which is that the US won't let them see, the US 'abandoning the kurds' doesn't mean the US troops have actually physically left Syria, they're still there, they just are no longer in the specific locations Turkey is attacking. There's still US troops in bases scattered around SDF-controlled territory, and while they're absolutely not going to lift a finger to actually defend their supposed allies, you better believe they'll jump into action double quick if the Kurds decide to do something with that oil the US doesn't approve of
|
#
¿
Oct 9, 2019 22:45
|
|
|
|
| # ¿ May 21, 2024 04:05 |
|
|
Kurnugia posted:you think? how many thousands of US troops are there in SDF territory again? few thousand at most, few enough that the SDF could hypothetically defeat them if it came down to it, but the problem is what would happen after they did that like, the US presence in the region could be six dudes masturbating in a quonset hut and they'd still exercise significant influence, not because of what they themselves can do, but because killing them would mean you're now officially at war with the United States those six dudes can be like 'you can't go here in this specific spot without having to kill us', for example, and that effectively denies you access to that territory unless you're willing to fight the United States, even if you could kill those six guys no problem (see what the US is doing in Kobani right now as we speak). if the US wants to deny Syria access to the oil they can absolutely do it, for a while anyway (eventually the bluff would be called and I don't think the US has the political will, or even necessarily the ability, for an actual full on invasion right now) Mister Bates has issued a correction as of 23:03 on Oct 9, 2019 |
|
#
¿
Oct 9, 2019 22:58
|
|
|
Kurnugia posted:right. and how would these few thousand dudes stop the SDF from exporting their oil to Assad? what im picturing from this is us marines laying down in front of oil trucks screaming "your going to have to get thru us igf oil want assad!!!!" you have a point in that they couldn't actually literally prevent the oil from being moved to wherever the hell the SDF wants to move it. it's more that, if the SDF finally fully breaks with the US and says 'gently caress you guys, we're doing what we want', those US troops that have just pulled back from the border a bit could go away entirely, which would probably be a good thing for the region as a whole in the long run but would also throw the SDF's defense plans for a loving loop and would remove the last small bit of protection against Turkey the US is still nominally providing. places the Turks (or the SAA, if relations with the government suddenly take a turn for the worse for some reason, which is not a likely scenario but is still a possibility they have to plan for) might be hesitant to attack because there are US troops there will go back to being viable targets again. there will no longer be big American-flag-patterned shields over various strategically important locations. this is a temporary situation, US influence is going to wane pretty quickly at this rate and eventually they're not going to give a gently caress. right now at this particular moment, though, 'what the US wants' still has at least some weight in the SDF's strategic calculus
|
|
#
¿
Oct 9, 2019 23:31
|
|
|
there is also that, yes like, the US is probably not going to do anything, but there's still the implication that they could I actually think Kurnugia is correct in the long run in that the SDF is rapidly going to stop giving a poo poo about what the US thinks, because I don't think the US is actually going to do anything to them, is incapable of realistically preventing them from doing anything, and isn't really providing them anything much anymore. But right now they're still going to be walking on eggshells around the US for a while
|
|
#
¿
Oct 9, 2019 23:47
|
|
|
Crowsbeak posted:They make an alliance with Assad and Iran? inshallah
|
|
#
¿
Oct 10, 2019 05:03
|
|
|
there appears to be a coordinated effort to stir up poo poo between the SDF and SAA right now by spreading misinformation six hours ago four unidentified presumably-Coalition aircraft supposedly bombed a series of targets in the Syrian government's zone of control southeast of Deir ez-Zor... https://twitter.com/RadioAlKul/status/1182678701626003461 ...which was apparently followed by mortar bombardments which were responded to in kind, with mortar fire being exchanged across the line for the last few hours. and now there's two or three separate reports, such as this one from the same people, claiming 'heavy fighting' between the SDF and Syrian government forces attempting to push north https://twitter.com/RadioAlKul/status/1182760448988504064 along with a bunch of other people saying that no such thing is actually happening https://twitter.com/WildflowerX24/status/1182744553062830082
|
|
#
¿
Oct 11, 2019 22:36
|
|
|
also they're letting expendable FSA auxiliaries do most of the actual foot slogging and therefore most of the dying
|
|
#
¿
Oct 12, 2019 23:11
|
|
|
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cXmv2pskP_c
|
|
#
¿
Oct 13, 2019 18:30
|
|
|
steinrokkan posted:Article 5 doesn't concern offensive wars. they may attempt to argue that it is a defensive war because the YPG is an extension of insurgent groups active in Turkey I don't think it will actually fly but it's the kind of arrogant poo poo I could see them trying to pull
|
|
#
¿
Oct 13, 2019 22:50
|
|
|
So hypothetically, assuming Graham and Pelosi are somehow able to force through some sort of binding legislation forcing the President to reverse his decision to remove troops from Syria, what the hell would the implementation of that look like? Obviously they can't just drive back to their camps, right? Would they be coming back to fight the Turks? To fight the SAA on behalf of the Turks? To fight them both? Would the SDF even let them back in at this point? I ask because it's something they're publicly suggesting they plan on doing and it just seems a bit weird, like, they know it isn't that easy, right?
|
|
#
¿
Oct 14, 2019 21:00
|
|
|
Vasukhani posted:a group collapsing 72 hours after US forces leave is a clear sign that it totally was an independent thing and not just another american client state. the Turkish Army was apparently genuinely surprised at how quickly the SDF folded, during the Afrin operation it took a couple weeks of border skirmishing before they were able to start making serious territorial gains. The TFSA group that cut the M4 highway and assassinated that politician on the road seem to have more or less just walked across the border unopposed, and were over 30km inside SDF territory for hours before running into serious resistance.
|
|
#
¿
Oct 15, 2019 01:02
|
|
|
psychofishhead posted:from what I observed, the Turkish-Syrian border is both pretty long with a bit of wilderness in certain spots so I could see how a group could easily sneak in during an invasion, especially without us surveillance drones circling overhead. plus asayish are really lax most of the time and as long as you and your hillux have enough ypg doodads they’ll just wave you through. all these guys would have to do is print some stickers, shave their beards and practice their dem başes and I can see them easily doing this without much problem for a while it was a pretty small group of them too, they killed a bunch of unarmed people but evaporated almost immediately when intercepted by an actual patrol
|
|
#
¿
Oct 15, 2019 01:48
|
|
|
cargo cult posted:is there evidence for this that isnt from counter punch or globalresearch.ca https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timber_Sycamore https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Syrian_Train_and_Equip_Program
|
|
#
¿
Oct 16, 2019 00:31
|
|
|
the US funneling arms to the FSA was a disastrous mess but that they did so for many years is such a completely open secret that I'm not sure it should even be called a secret at this point
|
|
#
¿
Oct 16, 2019 00:33
|
|
|
cargo cult posted:As of July 2015, only a group of 54 trained and equipped fighters (Division 30) had been reported to have been deployed, which was quickly routed by al-Nusra,[3] and a further 75 were reported in September 2015.[4] 500 million US dollars spent on that lmao the second group, the 75 guys, literally gave all the weapons the US had shipped to them to al-Nusra in order to buy their way past a checkpoint, and then near as anyone can tell they all just went home
|
|
#
¿
Oct 16, 2019 00:39
|
|
|
the US: here, Syrian rebel, have this M-16, these grenades, and this wad of untraceable hard currency, go and fight our enemies for us Syrian rebel: hey, thanks, bro! *immediately sells his M-16 and grenades to Al-Qaeda, keeps the money, drives off into the sunset* the US: we just don't understand how these jihadist groups keep ending up with American weapons
|
|
#
¿
Oct 16, 2019 01:08
|
|
|
looks like the Turkish offensive is bogging down pretty badly and joint SDF/SAA forces are now mounting some limited counterattacks that have retaken a bit of territory here and there Turkey seems to have been pushed entirely out of Ras Al-Ain/Serekaniye, after nearly taking the city a couple days ago
|
|
#
¿
Oct 16, 2019 18:05
|
|
|
Turkey and the US just agreed to a 120 hour cease fire conditional on the SDF withdrawing from Turkey's 'safe zone' and turning over all heavy weapons. The SDF says they had no knowledge of this agreement
|
|
#
¿
Oct 17, 2019 19:45
|
|
|
The agreement also promises to end the offensive after it has accomplished its original objectives which sounds a lot like it's not actually a cease fire at all
|
|
#
¿
Oct 17, 2019 19:57
|
|
|
so the net effect of this on the ground is that the SDF will effectively cede the areas Turkey has already captured to Turkey, along with the remainder of Ras al-Ain, which the Turks had not captured yet but were probably about to. in exchange they will receive, uh, nothing, near as I can tell. that the SDF agreed to this tells me that they are not confident they can hold the Turks back even with Russian and SAA support, and it's difficult to see this as anything other than a straight up defeat for them. like, Turkey doesn't get anything close to all the territory they wanted, but they still get quite a bit, with absolutely nothing preventing them from just taking more in a few days after they've had some time to lick their wounds. also the Syrian government were of course not included in these talks at all and are probably not going to accept Turkey essentially just unilaterally annexing a big chunk of their country, not that they are in any position to do anything about it.
|
|
#
¿
Oct 17, 2019 22:40
|
|
|
yeah, most of the territory the Turks have taken is basically empty countryside and some villages that were already mostly abandoned from the war, only two major population centers (really only one, the SDF is voluntarily abandoning the second because they don't think they can hold it). it's still definitely a victory for Turkey but it's not at all a crippling loss for Syria or for the SDF. if they think they can capture and hold more territory they will likely try, but worst case scenario they'll probably be willing to accept just dumping all 3 million Syrian refugees they've got out in the patch of desert they've captured, declaring 'mission accomplished' and leaving. also with regards to the oil going back to Syria, it's worth noting that US/Coalition forces have still not left the part of the country where all the oil fields are and give no indication that they're in any hurry to do so, nor have Syrian government forces been able to cross the lines into that area.
|
|
#
¿
Oct 18, 2019 00:50
|
|
|
Pener Kropoopkin posted:what administration would do that? Gloria La Riva
|
|
#
¿
Oct 18, 2019 23:52
|
|
|
so not only was it a lopsidedly bad deal for the SDF but the Turks are already reneging on pretty much the only concession they agreed to make
|
|
#
¿
Oct 19, 2019 23:07
|
|
|
Just lol if this 'withdrawal' ends with more US troops in the country than there were before it started
|
|
#
¿
Oct 26, 2019 19:46
|
|
|
yeah what Guaido told them was that he already had popular support and military support and just needed US support, and what was actually happening was that Guaido was hoping US support would give him the popular support and military support he did not in fact have yet then the time came to pull the trigger and he ended up launching a coup attempt with like 60 people, several of whom had been brought there under false pretenses and immediately turned around and went back to their barracks when they found out what they had almost been roped into participating in. the rest of them stood around on a highway interchange with their thumbs up their asses for a few hours and that was pretty much it, that was the coup Mister Bates has issued a correction as of 02:41 on Nov 2, 2019 |
|
#
¿
Nov 2, 2019 02:38
|
|
|
Baghdadghazi e: Baghazi Mister Bates has issued a correction as of 22:46 on Dec 31, 2019 |
|
#
¿
Dec 31, 2019 22:44
|
|
|
what if this was a loving accident no, seriously, hear me out at first all anyone knew is that a guy who planned the embassy smash-up got killed what if that was the sole objective of this. what if this was entirely Trump trying to get petty revenge on the guy who embarrassed the US, with a bit of collective punishment of anyone around him for good measure.
|
|
#
¿
Jan 3, 2020 03:51
|
|
|
Punkin Spunkin posted:What was that earlier tweet about the soleimani attack being a "double tap"? With video so i guess it was confirmed? yes, that is a standard and widely acknowledged US tactic they've been doing for years. a shitload of Afghani paramedics and doctors have died responding to drone strikes over the years.
|
|
#
¿
Jan 4, 2020 00:19
|
|
|
so the gap between people being designated terrorists and then being murdered is now only a few hours. but the thing is, it takes several hours at absolute minimum to put together an airstrike. you have to stage the aircraft and fuel the aircraft and put the missiles on it and put together a flight plan and blah blah blah, all sorts of poo poo. so what that means is that the strike had to have been planned before the targets were actually legally considered terrorists, which means the US first decided to kill them and then manufactured a justification for it ex post facto. not like they haven't done that before but it's still loving upsetting
|
|
#
¿
Jan 4, 2020 01:01
|
|
|
what the gently caress is it with the US and murdering medical personnel, it's like all of their guided munitions have a built-in doctor-seeking functionality the invasion of Grenada lasted like three days and was against a microstate the size of Fort Lauderdale with no military whatsoever, and the US still managed to firebomb a hospital
|
|
#
¿
Jan 4, 2020 01:32
|
|
|
yeah jesus why the gently caress would they bomb the Yazidis, what a good way to loving torpedo any shred of local goodwill you might have had remaining
|
|
#
¿
Jan 4, 2020 02:11
|
|
|
it'd be hilarious if the US media confused Kataib Hezbollah with Hezbollah and that's what led to the mistaken report
|
|
#
¿
Jan 4, 2020 04:44
|
|
|
comedyblissoption posted:https://twitter.com/SteveKerr/status/1213229102527762433 The reason they're doing this is that the Authorization for Use of Military Force Against Terrorists, the law under which this strike was notionally carried out, is specifically a declaration of war against the terrorists responsible for 9/11, so in order for this killing to have even a flimsy legal justification they have to draw some kind of connection to that, however tenuous
|
|
#
¿
Jan 4, 2020 14:27
|
|
|
blowing up all of their sacred religious sites sounds like a great way to pacify a deeply religious nation governed by a theocracy established in a popular revolution, that will surely put them in their place, can see no possible blowback from that whatsoever
|
|
#
¿
Jan 5, 2020 00:22
|
|
|
I am nine year old American girl Bana Smith in Queens, Trump is oppressing us badly, I pray Ayatollah Khomeini please send S-500 surface-to-air missile to the United States Air Force
|
|
#
¿
Jan 5, 2020 00:47
|
|
|
while I can easily believe this and want to, is there any other source to this aside from this one dude?
|
|
#
¿
Jan 5, 2020 00:50
|
|
|
Valleyant posted:We will be liberators! They were planning to try to hold the vote Sunday, so today sometime
|
|
#
¿
Jan 5, 2020 05:47
|
|
|
the tankies were right all along
|
|
#
¿
Jan 5, 2020 05:57
|
|
|
they're just going to say that because this is a caretaker government it shouldn't have the right to make policy and therefore this shouldn't be considered legally binding even though they did technically make quorum
|
|
#
¿
Jan 5, 2020 18:08
|
|
|
|
| # ¿ May 21, 2024 04:05 |
|
|
from my experience interacting with career military officers I think some of them probably thought the world would be shocked and impressed by their boldness and willingness to take decisive action and it would force the Iranians to come grovel at the USA's feet offering concessions
|
|
#
¿
Jan 5, 2020 21:04
|
|