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mila kunis posted:judging from posts by certain unnamed d&d shills that seems to be the current strategy Yeah, it seems like it is also spreading to Iraq (basically classic containment tactics). Anyway, we aren't going invade Iran...probably because the Russians and Chinese can easily sell them a bunch of toys that would make it a real fight. Liberals hate Glen Greenwald because they're nationalists, love war, and get a hard-on for hegemony. That is it. They don't give a poo poo about gas attacks or dead civilians beyond what they can use them for politically. The Middle East thread is practically a primary source on the subject. Liberals just want the economic status quo and America's dominance to continue forever, everything else is tactical window-dressing. It is why they hate Trump so much because he is accelerating the collapse of the US' stranglehold on humanity, but in all honesty, it was already crumbling under Obama. Ardennes has issued a correction as of 14:30 on Jul 22, 2018 |
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Jul 22, 2018 14:26
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Pener Kropoopkin posted:We're more likely to just see Erdogan forced to step down than the AKP losing power. Erdogan has a pretty firm hold on the AKP at this point and probably is more popular than the party itself (for now). A lot of the issue though is that the opposition (IYI/CHP) are never going to work with the Kurds, which probably lead to an impasse.
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Aug 13, 2018 10:57
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Of course the other issue that the Kurds have always been a card to play against Erdogan, and once the Saudi assassination happened, he needed some type of compensation in return. That said, it isn't a Trump thing as much as another example of cynical short-sighted American foreign policy making a mess.
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Dec 22, 2018 23:06
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I thought saying the administration doesn't have "slam-dunk" evidence is putting it very nicely considering what has been presented.
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Jun 15, 2019 02:03
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Granted, it seemed Trotskyism itself was used as a way to in a way to remain a leftist while opposing the Soviet Union. This niche was then largely filled by Maoism or Eurocommunism, until everyone become a liberal/neo-con by the 80s. The irony is the split happened to over the NEP in the first place, which honestly was justifiably necessary at least for a couple years. Looking over what he was writing, I don’t think Trotsky really had s firm idea of what to do about trade and he went back and forth on collectivization, which wasn’t going to work without tractors.
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Jul 30, 2019 11:02
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Goon Danton posted:My understanding was they felt any revolution that isn't global is doomed to failure, yeah. Not so much an admission that the anti-Bolsheviks were right so much as saying the Bolsheviks were right to try but ultimately didn't really win. I would say the most the Bolsheviks could do is buy time until they were completely cornered by the US. Also, Trots turning into neocons doesn’t seem that weird when you think of it as a logical idea extension of where their thought process.
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Aug 8, 2019 23:33
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Frijolero posted:The SAA and SDF just recently fought a battle together in Manbij right? The SAA has previously moved into positions to act as a buffer between the SDF and Turkish backed forces.
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Oct 9, 2019 14:21
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i say swears online posted:Okay iirc this government was formed after the election as a Shia-majority coalition that was both aimed at rebuffing iran and providing better basic services to the poor, right? The new coalition was less pro-Iranian before but obviously still more Iran aligned than US aligned basically. This is insufficient for containment.
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Nov 29, 2019 20:07
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Pener Kropoopkin posted:Russia did pretty great in Syria and their whole country is a shitshow. Have you ever actually been to modern-day Russia?
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Dec 20, 2019 11:57
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Lawman 0 posted:Outside of European russia is unfortunately a disaster Even Siberia/the Urals is changing at this point even if it lagging behind Western Russia. It isn’t the 90s anymore, even if one of them favorite pastimes of Americans is laughing at Russian people starving to death.
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Dec 20, 2019 13:59
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DOCTOR ZIMBARDO posted:they would need 20-50x as many people in place to invade anything, to say nothing of aircraft carriers (only one super carrier is in theater of the two currently at sea - we needed 4 during OIF) and other support systems. Honestly, I don't think the US military is capable of even of an invasion of Iraq itself much less both Iraq/Iran at this point. The US Army of 2020 isn't designed to fight an enemy that is willing to fight back. Also, the Iranians have been building their arms industry and does have the ability to fight at least a defensive war (and would obviously back Iraq if it got invade). The US may be able to launch a bunch of airstrikes and declare victory but it is doubtful a ground war would be winnable.
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Jan 6, 2020 22:37
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sum posted:The US could easily invade Iraq, as they have shown twice already only in the last 30 years lmao. Iraq's military couldn't even resist a bunch of methed up psychos driving technicals and T-55s. The US Army of 2020 isn't the same one of 1991/2003, and in both cases we were fighting an Iraqi army that had little desire to fight (and also had little desire to fight ISIS). The reason the Iraqi army won against ISIS was in part because of Iranian/Russian help and PMUs. Admittedly, the US would still be able to invade parts of Iraq and take out a bunch of equipment with aistrikes but it is doubtful it could actually occupy it simply because they would be a huge and highly motivated irregular force armed force supplied by the Iranians. I would say Americans if anything over-estimate the technical advantage of the US army. Iranian air defenses have been heavily beefed up in recent years with Russian and domestic technology, and much of the military has been modernized. The US may be able to get some air strikes on some vulnerable positions, but it is doubtful the US army could make serious progress into the country (also again the Russians/Chinese would also certainly provide enough weaponry to grind any American advance to a halt.) The US at the point is hoping it can have the excuse to launch of airstrikes to knee cap the Iranians a bit, but thats it.
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Jan 6, 2020 23:16
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Fallujah is a good example of how the US military fares if it actually has to fight an enemy willing to fight in an urban area, and that is one small city. The US still has an advantage in the air, and the ability to hit Iraq and parts of Iran with airstrikes but even then it depends if have to tangle with modern Russian AA systems.
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Jan 6, 2020 23:29
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etalian posted:I think the war on the terror already did that given how the US spent trillions on Afghanistan and Iraq while being defeated on the strategic side. It shows the vulnerability of the US military, but I think the US would actually need to lose in a conventional conflict for that image to be shattered. (That said, the US usually doesn't fight countries that fight back.)
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Jan 6, 2020 23:45
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sum posted:Before the first Gulf War, a lot of people made a big deal about the Republican Guard, a highly motivated, highly veteran contingent of the Iraqi army with modernized arms and AFVs. And they got their loving poo poo stomped, along with the rest of the army which lost thousands of tanks and armored vehicles over the course of like 3 days. As for Iran's new air defenses, they have 4 batteries of the S-300 (a 40 year old SAM) whereas the US has the most comically dominant air force ever assembled. There's just no comparison. It is pretty sad to see what nationalism does to people. The first Iraq war was based around us attacking a poorly motivated, retreating enemy. It was a slaughter, a invasion of majority Shia urban areas is a totally separate matter, think 50 different Fallujahs happening at the same time. Also, the S-300 PMU 2 isn’t 40 years old and Iran is producing its own variant, which is in service. Also, there is a reason the US has done its best to try to avoid it. Ardennes has issued a correction as of 00:52 on Jan 7, 2020 |
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Jan 7, 2020 00:28
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sum posted:The Republican Guard divisions weren't poorly motivated or retreating. They just got easily destroyed at the battles of Norfolk and 73 Easting because they were trying to fight a symmetrical war against the most powerful military on the planet. Keep in mind that this was the same Republican Guard that had just fought Iran's army to a stalemate only a few years prior. The Republican guard were completely out of position, outnumbered and without meaningful AA: it wasn’t close to a fair fight and the majority of the Iraq army was already was in retreat after Kuwait was abandoned. Btw, Iraq had initially been on the offensive during the Iran-Iraq war. I think it is insane to think the US military has the sort of advantages it had in the 1990s or to think it could even occupy any significant portion of Iran at this point (remember those mountain ranges). The Iranian army isn’t Saddam’s army and neither is it the Iranian army of the 1980s. The US just doesn’t have the numbers or the technological advantage it once it, and besides air strikes, has limited options. You are living 30 years in the past. Ardennes has issued a correction as of 03:10 on Jan 7, 2020 |
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Jan 7, 2020 03:05
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sum posted:Yes, it wasn't close to a fair fight because of the massive materiel advantages of the US army, which is my entire point. Iran's military budget is a small fraction of the US's and that has huge consequences on the battlefield. Say that to the Vietcong or the Taliban. There is a massive amount of bloat the US military and Iran would be fighting a defensive war..(Also the Iraqis had attempted to negotiate a ceasefire before being shot in the back by the “massive material advantage” of the US. quote:They hadn't been spent. Iraq had the 4th largest military on the planet at the start of the Gulf War (larger than Iran's current military, incidentally), much of it pretty modernized. They just got owned. That 4th largest military line was based on a bunch of conscripts that had no interest fighting and the Iraqi military was in fairly rough safe after the Iran-Iraq war. That said almost all of your posts so have been boilerplate nonsense I have heard literally a million times before, almost all of it out of date or misleading.
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Jan 7, 2020 03:32
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sum posted:. The Iran-Iraq war didn’t go so well my man and was before the invasion of Kuwait.
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Jan 7, 2020 03:47
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The whole "proportional response means weakness" theory doesn't seem to be substaniated.
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Jan 8, 2020 03:34
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mobby_6kl posted:The Russians had visual on a civilian 747 but still shot it down because reasons so who the gently caress knows, maybe some bigshot thought the Israelis got through undetected with their fancy... Israeli technology and ordered to shoot. Iran also said it was caused by a technical problem, maybe it was a technical problem with their SAM. Who knows. Obviously it could've been a bomb onboard or a catastrophic engine failure but those aren't much more likely imo. A bunch of Ukrainian military passenger aircraft have the same silhouette as a commercial jet liner had been previously shot down in the preceding week.
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Jan 8, 2020 23:07
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ate poo poo on live tv posted:Own the Ayatollah everyday in every way. Religion is the enemy of the people. Are the Iranian people your enemy as well?
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Jan 10, 2020 00:48
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Granted, everything is about power politics, including the latest forum meltdown. SA is just a bit weird because unlike most of the internet it seems to be an open battleground where neither side seems to have an advantage.
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Jan 13, 2020 03:16
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Flavahbeast posted:the inscrutable globalists that chased the Berkut and Yanukovych out of Ukraine are now taking aim at Trump and our hero cops!! You probably should read up on the history of Ukraine post-2014.
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Jun 7, 2020 00:16
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Zedhe Khoja posted:So is the whole world just pretending Haftar wasn't living in Langley for like 20 years? Whatever hes doing has the USA seal of approval. We were openly supporting Haftar until recently. It is completely an Eurasia-Eastasia situation.
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Jun 12, 2020 19:42
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Darth Walrus posted:Incidentally, I found a detailed and fascinating article on Lebanon's bizarre economy, if you want to see why it was so uniquely vulnerable to COVID-19. Every single chart in it is incredible. A big part of the issue was tying the Lebanese Pound to the dollar which fueled a speculative real estate bubble and then rapid devaluation once the bubble collapsed in the an absence of currency controls. The aftermath Civil War/2006 conflict delayed this bubble somewhat because circumstances were still so uncertain, but by the 2010s it was in full swing. This was all a long-time in coming since there were already signs Lebanon had been under economic stress for years, but it took COVID for the explosion to occur. Most developing countries really don't benefit long-term from having a super-strong currency since usually it just leads to a false sense of stability and growth followed by economic catastrophy once reserves run out. Ardennes has issued a correction as of 11:15 on Jul 4, 2020 |
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Jul 4, 2020 11:13
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More than even regime change, economic sanctions are supposed to make an "example" of a country to scare others in line. The problem is that usually it backfires, and the population starts supporting the regime and sanctions arguably help propel regimes. It seems like a growing number of countries see this and are mostly shrugging off the threat of US sanctions and instead use work arounds. Also, an large part of it is the US military is overstretched and as Afganistan/Iraq showed the US military really can't sustain long term occupation. The "Libyan experiment" also has proved unworkable since it is so destablizing to an entire region.
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Jul 8, 2020 19:52
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Zedhe Khoja posted:I mean it is a mosque, it just wasn't an active one. This opens it up to services again which sucks and will make seeing the interior a worse experience, but some of the sensationalist headlines about them converting a church into a mosque are five centuries too late. It was a mosque but was a museum for most of modern Turkish history. Btw, it is a pretty big deal since it is a sign Erdogan is pushing for far further religious influence in the Turkish state and getting rid of secularism entirely. Ardennes has issued a correction as of 20:35 on Jul 10, 2020 |
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Jul 10, 2020 20:32
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Also, Argentina ended its recognition of Guaido back in January.
Ardennes has issued a correction as of 17:14 on Jul 11, 2020 |
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Jul 11, 2020 17:08
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sum posted:What's motivating the border tensions anyway? I know Azerbaijan's economy is heavily reliant on oil, are they sabre rattling to diffuse domestic dissent or something? The Azebraijani Manat has been under tremendous pressure for years and the Aliyev family usually uses nationalist-revanchist misdirection to its advantage. The Manat used to be worth $1.27 and now its 59 cents and it may go lower. Also, Azerbaijani society is unequal with a tiny elite living in Central Baku and the rest of the country being generally impoverished.
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Jul 16, 2020 17:59
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Azerbaijan also has a bit of a cultural conflict going on between its secular (and often Russian speaking) middle class and its more religious working class. The Aliyev family generally has been more on the secular side of the equation but knows that the conflict with Armenia is generally the only thing keeping them in power. Other than oil/natural gas, the Azerbaijani economy is almost completely undiversified and even has to import food even though it has some decent agricultural lands in the northwest of the country. I would say Azerbaijan has both some typical post-Soviet political and economic issues, but also some cultural issues that in many ways are more similar to the Middle East.
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Jul 16, 2020 18:26
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Gaupo Guacho posted:yeah the srbrenica massacre was a fake CIA op too Srebrenica wasn't an op, but as another poster said, it happened in 1996, not 1999. The war in Kosovo was unjustified. NATO started bombing Belgrade while negotiations were still occurring. The problem is the US used the tragedy of Serbrenica to launch a war against Serbians for its own ends, and the region hasn't recovered since.
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Jul 16, 2020 19:59
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Lightning Knight posted:is this bad? it doesn’t sound good It means Egyptian and Turkish forces may see open combat.
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Jul 20, 2020 19:08
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THS posted:the united states, which spent a decade lobbing uranium tank rounds around, and previously nuked two cities, has Got To Enforce International Norms Then you have the use of WP...which doesn't count as a chemical weapon.
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Jul 27, 2020 00:42
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Malleum posted:depleted uranium is not radioactive but it is a dangerous heavy metal that they shoot at things and the air friction and just "passing through this thing at an incredibly high speed" friction sends particulates of it everywhere which people then breathe quote:The use of DU in munitions is controversial because of concerns about potential long-term health effects.[7][8] Normal functioning of the kidney, brain, liver, heart, and numerous other systems can be affected by exposure to uranium, a toxic metal.[9] It is only weakly radioactive because of the long radioactive half-life of uranium-238 (4468 million years) and the low amounts of uranium-234 (half-life about 246,000 years) and uranium-235 (half-life 700 million years). The biological half-life (the average time it takes for the human body to eliminate half the amount in the body) for uranium is about 15 days.[10] The aerosol or spallation frangible powder produced by impact and combustion of depleted uranium munitions can potentially contaminate wide areas around the impact sites, leading to possible inhalation by human beings.[11] Yeah and it was probably responsible for both Gulf War syndrome and a multitude of health effects on the Iraqi population over multiple generations. Ardennes has issued a correction as of 01:35 on Jul 27, 2020 |
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Jul 27, 2020 01:33
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StashAugustine posted:Is the radiation itself dangerous or just the fact that its poisonous? (Not questioning if its dangerous, just want to get the chemistry clear) I think the bigger issue is that its a heavy metal and people are breathing it in/having it be omnipresent in their destroyed country. Ardennes has issued a correction as of 18:36 on Jul 27, 2020 |
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Jul 27, 2020 18:34
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It seems like the explosion was on a smaller pier that is 1-2kms away from the main container port. The grain elevator obviously is gone, but they may still be able to get in imports otherwise.
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Aug 4, 2020 21:32
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I don't know if Lebanon's Shia community (about 40% of the population) is going to be as enthused about a turn toward colonialism as some Lebanese Christians. Also, France doesn't have any money.
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Aug 6, 2020 20:08
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The question is who as part of that sectarian government is going to actually take the blame. Obstinately, the protests are "against them all" but then you get down to it, someone is going to have to come out of top. The demand for Lebanon to be a "French mandate" are pretty suspect. That said, the economic problems Lebanon has been having aren't a conspiracy but the usual fate many developing nations fate when a property bubble is tied to a peg to the US dollar. The explosion itself wouldn't have happened one way or another without massive incompetence. It is just going to boil down what the alternative is going to be.
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Aug 8, 2020 21:22
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steinrokkan posted:What are you talking about, foreigners are too dumb to have politics without being led by foreign agents, unlike the brave and smart Americans. It usually starts that way, when a country has a severe issue and the populace has a right to be angry and then suddenly a well-funded group pops up to provide an alternative. Euromadian ended up a complete failure because the issues actually facing the country were put aside for US foreign policy and the interests of local elites. Today, Ukraine is as corrupt if not more corrupt than back in 2014. Hell, in recent polls, the pro-Russian opposition bloc has been closing in on Zelensky's party. That is saying something when the Donbass conflict is still occurring. BattleMaster posted:of course bad actors will try to take advantage of anything they think they can leverage but it's gross to assume that people with tons of reasons to be angry have no agency and will only do something if a white person tells them to Americans shouldn't even ask if their government is pulling tricks overseas? Why don't liberals give a poo poo about Bolivia? Ardennes has issued a correction as of 21:49 on Aug 8, 2020 |
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Aug 8, 2020 21:34
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BattleMaster posted:they should but I don't think your first thought upon seeing angry foreigners is "these people are only angry because the CIA told them to be angry" Meh, you probably should still keep in the back of your mind especially if the demands seem a bit vague and there is an obvious geopolitical stake. In this case, I would want to see more evidence in either direction. If the protests are really just against the current coalition government, then it is if anything still sectarian. Ardennes has issued a correction as of 22:04 on Aug 8, 2020 |
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Aug 8, 2020 21:52
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