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HootTheOwl
May 13, 2012

Hootin and shootin
The Bears are bad, but they're so bad in predictable ways we can use them to predict other outcomes based on on performance. For example: By losing to the Bears we can accurately predict that the Steelers and the Panthers are not playoff caliber teams and as such were eliminated in their first opportunity. Using our system, which is heavy on asking if a team lost to the Bears called The "Defeats Against the Bears Explain Away Results System" (DABEARS) we have the following categories of importance: Directly losing to the Bears. If you lost to the Bears, you should expect to lose. Point differential against the Bears. If you couldn't run up the score against the Bears, what can we expect from you? Being unable to defeat teams that lost to the Bears and Point differential against teams that lost to the Bears. We get it, only one team can go 0-16 a year so even teams that lose to the Bears can win games and even beat you. But by how much?
Using this formula we have:
Wildcard Weekend
Falcons (1-0) against Rams (0-0). Falcons have a +9 Differential Against Bears (DAB) and a +6 Against Negitively Aligned Lineups (ANAL). The Rams had 0, and the Falcons won.
Saints (1-0) against Panthers (0-1). Panthers lost to the Bears, and lost their first playoff game.
Jaguars (0-0) against Bills (0-0). No team played the Bears and had an equal DAB but the Jags had a whopping 96 point edge in the ANAL. Jaguars win.
Titans (0-0) against Chiefs (0-0). The Chiefs were unable to defeat any of their ANAL, but the Titans pounded 3 of them. Titans also won this game.
Divisional round:
Eagles (1-0) against Falcons (1-0). DAB 31-8 in favor of the Eagles. Eagles moved on.
Vikings (2-0) against Saints (1-0). Vikings and Saints each beat the Bears 100% of the time, and by similar margins (+8 DAB) but the Saints had a +3 ANAL bonus. They should have won this game, and frankly they almost did. A miracle TD on the final play of the game? It happens. Even to the best models.
Steelers (0-1) against Jaguars (0-0). You lose to the Bears and you lose in real life.
Patriots (0-0) against Titans (0-0), Patriots had superior ANAL.

FUTURE DIVISION CHAMPIONSHIPS
Eagles (1-0) against Vikings (2-0) The eagles have superior DAB, but the VIkings have superior ANAL. I would like to see the Superbowl Home Game dream, but the DABEARS says this should go to the Eagles. :(
Jaguars (0-0) against Patriots (0-0). In what will be an upset to most analysts but you heard it here first The Jaguars, with their ANAL, DAB will win this game.
Jaguars (0-0) against Eagles (1-0). This is hard to say, the Eagles did beat the Bears and are playing against a team that did not, but the underlying stats suggest the Jaguars WOULD have done it based on their impressive 86 ANAL. But the system is biased towards teams that play the Bears so Eagles win.

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Sour Diesel
Jan 30, 2010

this is more legit than dvoa

Elephanthead
Sep 11, 2008


Toilet Rascal
Has any team won the Superbowl and not played the Bears?

Bears scrimmaged the Bears so don't answer that.

HootTheOwl
May 13, 2012

Hootin and shootin

Elephanthead posted:

Has any team won the Superbowl and not played the Bears?

Bears scrimmaged the Bears so don't answer that.

Patriots beat the Bears in 2014, and won the Super Bowl.
Broncos beat the Bears in 2015, and won the Super Bowl.
The Patriots did not play the bears in 2016, but they did beat the 49ers. One of three teams the Bears beat. (Patriots did not play either the Vikings or the Lions)

JIZZ DENOUEMENT
Oct 3, 2012

STRIKE!
I thought this thread was going to be about those zany "animal picks playoff winners" and was hoping for bears picking between two picnic baskets with different team logos.

Impossibly Perfect Sphere
Nov 6, 2002

They wasted Luanne on Lucky!

She could of have been so much more but the writers just didn't care!
I wanted to a Super Bowl prediction from actual live bears from Yellowstone. Thread did not deliver.

HootTheOwl
May 13, 2012

Hootin and shootin

Jiminy Christmas! Shoes! posted:

I wanted to a Super Bowl prediction from actual live bears from Yellowstone. Thread did not deliver.

That is "The Superbowl as Predicted by Bears"
This is "The Superbowl as Predicted by the Bears"

midwifecrisis
Jul 5, 2005

oh, have I got some GREAT news for you!

HootTheOwl posted:

That is "The Superbowl as Predicted by Bears"
This is "The Superbowl as Predicted by the Bears"

da bears

HootTheOwl
May 13, 2012

Hootin and shootin

That's the name of the system. No spaces. DABEARS.

a new study bible!
Feb 2, 2009



BIG DICK NICK
A Philadelphia Legend
Fly Eagles Fly


Yeah, but what about the Superbowl as predicted by DeBeers?

HootTheOwl
May 13, 2012

Hootin and shootin

a new study bible! posted:

Yeah, but what about the Superbowl as predicted by DeBeers?

They win either way because you have you seen the amount of ice on those rings? At least three back to back timeouts worth.

Sono
Apr 9, 2008




Sour Diesel posted:

this is more legit than dvoa

Congrats Eagles fans. And greetings from the gold mine when this pans out.

Randaconda
Jul 3, 2014

by Jeffrey of YOSPOS

a new study bible! posted:

Yeah, but what about the Superbowl as predicted by Colonel DeBeers?

Ehud
Sep 19, 2003

football.

I voted 5 for ANAL

Sono
Apr 9, 2008




Ehud posted:

I voted 5 for ANAL

And how high would you go for ANAL DAB?

dirty shrimp money
Jan 8, 2001

*applies to SBNation with the OP*

Fenrir
Apr 26, 2005

I found my kendo stick, bitch!

Lipstick Apathy
I don't know what I was expecting when I clicked this but what I got was better :laffo:

HootTheOwl
May 13, 2012

Hootin and shootin
I went out last night but I did catch that the Eagles won and Jax was up by like 10 so I can only imagine things went well. I was right. You're welcome.

Kalli
Jun 2, 2001



The Eagles beat the Bears this year by 28.

The Patriots haven't played the Bears for 3 years, but the last time they played, they won by... 28.

Tie game Superbowl, to continue until the Bears swing it.

Android Apocalypse
Apr 28, 2009

The future is
AUTOMATED
and you are
OBSOLETE

Illegal Hen

HootTheOwl posted:

You probably thought Hillary was going to win in 2016 too..

If anything this proves the Patriots are powered by Russian bots under the orders of Putin.

HootTheOwl
May 13, 2012

Hootin and shootin

Android Apocalypse posted:

You probably thought Hillary was going to win in 2016 too..

If anything this proves the Patriots are powered by Russian bots under the orders of Putin.

Hillary won by 2 million votes. But the wage gap only let her votes count as 0.77 each.

HootTheOwl
May 13, 2012

Hootin and shootin

Kalli posted:

The Eagles beat the Bears this year by 28.

The Patriots haven't played the Bears for 3 years, but the last time they played, they won by... 28.

Tie game Superbowl, to continue until the Bears swing it.

You're only looking at the DAB. DABEARS also covers ANAL.

HootTheOwl fucked around with this message at 17:40 on Jan 22, 2018

Elephanthead
Sep 11, 2008


Toilet Rascal
I think Bears and Eagles are friends and the Bear would try to kill eat a Patriot.

Sono
Apr 9, 2008




Elephanthead posted:

I think Bears and Eagles are friends and the Bear would try to kill eat a Patriot.

Nah, Bears only feast on the AFC North.

SD87
Jun 7, 2011
I surf the waves on the world wide web and I have seen this post before on a different island

client
Aug 19, 2010

HootTheOwl posted:

The Bears are bad, but they're so bad in predictable ways we can use them to predict other outcomes based on on performance. For example: By losing to the Bears we can accurately predict that the Steelers and the Panthers are not playoff caliber teams and as such were eliminated in their first opportunity. Using our system, which is heavy on asking if a team lost to the Bears called The "Defeats Against the Bears Explain Away Results System" (DABEARS) we have the following categories of importance: Directly losing to the Bears. If you lost to the Bears, you should expect to lose. Point differential against the Bears. If you couldn't run up the score against the Bears, what can we expect from you? Being unable to defeat teams that lost to the Bears and Point differential against teams that lost to the Bears. We get it, only one team can go 0-16 a year so even teams that lose to the Bears can win games and even beat you. But by how much?
Using this formula we have:
Wildcard Weekend
Falcons (1-0) against Rams (0-0). Falcons have a +9 Differential Against Bears (DAB) and a +6 Against Negitively Aligned Lineups (ANAL). The Rams had 0, and the Falcons won.
Saints (1-0) against Panthers (0-1). Panthers lost to the Bears, and lost their first playoff game.
Jaguars (0-0) against Bills (0-0). No team played the Bears and had an equal DAB but the Jags had a whopping 96 point edge in the ANAL. Jaguars win.
Titans (0-0) against Chiefs (0-0). The Chiefs were unable to defeat any of their ANAL, but the Titans pounded 3 of them. Titans also won this game.
Divisional round:
Eagles (1-0) against Falcons (1-0). DAB 31-8 in favor of the Eagles. Eagles moved on.
Vikings (2-0) against Saints (1-0). Vikings and Saints each beat the Bears 100% of the time, and by similar margins (+8 DAB) but the Saints had a +3 ANAL bonus. They should have won this game, and frankly they almost did. A miracle TD on the final play of the game? It happens. Even to the best models.
Steelers (0-1) against Jaguars (0-0). You lose to the Bears and you lose in real life.
Patriots (0-0) against Titans (0-0), Patriots had superior ANAL.

FUTURE DIVISION CHAMPIONSHIPS
Eagles (1-0) against Vikings (2-0) The eagles have superior DAB, but the VIkings have superior ANAL. I would like to see the Superbowl Home Game dream, but the DABEARS says this should go to the Eagles. :(
Jaguars (0-0) against Patriots (0-0). In what will be an upset to most analysts but you heard it here first The Jaguars, with their ANAL, DAB will win this game.
Jaguars (0-0) against Eagles (1-0). This is hard to say, the Eagles did beat the Bears and are playing against a team that did not, but the underlying stats suggest the Jaguars WOULD have done it based on their impressive 86 ANAL. But the system is biased towards teams that play the Bears so Eagles win.

goddamn this guy was right

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HootTheOwl
May 13, 2012

Hootin and shootin
0 ANAL can't beat a 31 DAB.
This is the third straight year that the Super Bowl has had to run through the Chicago Bears.

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