HootTheOwl posted:

The Bears are bad, but they're so bad in predictable ways we can use them to predict other outcomes based on on performance. For example: By losing to the Bears we can accurately predict that the Steelers and the Panthers are not playoff caliber teams and as such were eliminated in their first opportunity. Using our system, which is heavy on asking if a team lost to the Bears called The "Defeats Against the Bears Explain Away Results System" (DABEARS) we have the following categories of importance: Directly losing to the Bears. If you lost to the Bears, you should expect to lose. Point differential against the Bears. If you couldn't run up the score against the Bears, what can we expect from you? Being unable to defeat teams that lost to the Bears and Point differential against teams that lost to the Bears. We get it, only one team can go 0-16 a year so even teams that lose to the Bears can win games and even beat you. But by how much?
Using this formula we have:
Wildcard Weekend
Falcons (1-0) against Rams (0-0). Falcons have a +9 Differential Against Bears (DAB) and a +6 Against Negitively Aligned Lineups (ANAL). The Rams had 0, and the Falcons won.
Saints (1-0) against Panthers (0-1). Panthers lost to the Bears, and lost their first playoff game.
Jaguars (0-0) against Bills (0-0). No team played the Bears and had an equal DAB but the Jags had a whopping 96 point edge in the ANAL. Jaguars win.
Titans (0-0) against Chiefs (0-0). The Chiefs were unable to defeat any of their ANAL, but the Titans pounded 3 of them. Titans also won this game.
Divisional round:
Eagles (1-0) against Falcons (1-0). DAB 31-8 in favor of the Eagles. Eagles moved on.
Vikings (2-0) against Saints (1-0). Vikings and Saints each beat the Bears 100% of the time, and by similar margins (+8 DAB) but the Saints had a +3 ANAL bonus. They should have won this game, and frankly they almost did. A miracle TD on the final play of the game? It happens. Even to the best models.
Steelers (0-1) against Jaguars (0-0). You lose to the Bears and you lose in real life.
Patriots (0-0) against Titans (0-0), Patriots had superior ANAL.

FUTURE DIVISION CHAMPIONSHIPS
Eagles (1-0) against Vikings (2-0) The eagles have superior DAB, but the VIkings have superior ANAL. I would like to see the Superbowl Home Game dream, but the DABEARS says this should go to the Eagles.
Jaguars (0-0) against Patriots (0-0). In what will be an upset to most analysts but you heard it here first The Jaguars, with their ANAL, DAB will win this game.
Jaguars (0-0) against Eagles (1-0). This is hard to say, the Eagles did beat the Bears and are playing against a team that did not, but the underlying stats suggest the Jaguars WOULD have done it based on their impressive 86 ANAL. But the system is biased towards teams that play the Bears so Eagles win.