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LadyPictureShow posted:So is Shape if Water really that good, or is it just getting a bunch of nods because it came out not too long ago and Del Toro could film decomposing roadkill and make it look amazing? It has awesome production design and Hawkins gives an astoundingly good performance. It starts out sort of experimental and wraps up more conventional, but on the whole is a lovely little movie that also ticks a lot of boxes with its nods to old Hollywood and cultural nostalgia. A really lean, approachable film with some cool things on its mind.
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Jan 24, 2018 20:04
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Typically visuals are all a film needs to nab at Best Picture nomination. If it's a top-5 film just on a visual level, you can assume it will probably be nominated, then from there a win depends on a lot of other factors.
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Jan 24, 2018 20:08
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Movies featuring characters who want to gently caress unconvential stuff tend to clean up during awards season.
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Jan 24, 2018 20:12
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exquisite tea posted:Movies featuring characters who want to gently caress unconvential stuff tend to clean up during awards season. Or if two conventional people want to gently caress but unconventional stuff prevents them from doing it. Really the first step in crafting Oscar bait is two entities, human or otherwise, that want to gently caress.
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Jan 24, 2018 20:20
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Basebf555 posted:Or if two conventional people want to gently caress but unconventional stuff prevents them from doing it. Really the first step in crafting Oscar bait is two entities, human or otherwise, that want to gently caress. Is Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close about a boy who wants to gently caress 9/11?
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Jan 24, 2018 20:23
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LORD OF BOOTY posted:Is Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close about a boy who wants to gently caress 9/11? You have to ask?
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Jan 24, 2018 20:25
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Basebf555 posted:Typically visuals are all a film needs to nab at Best Picture nomination. I don't know if that's true. What about Blade Runner 2049? Or Silence and The Neon Demon last year?
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Jan 24, 2018 21:23
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Samuel Clemens posted:I don't know if that's true. What about Blade Runner 2049? Or Silence and The Neon Demon last year? For some reason I'd thought Blade Runner actually was nominated. So yes I've just made a point that is contradicted by this year's nominees. I think it's still generally true, Silence and Neon Demon had some fairly unusual factors going against them. Silence had an absolutely abysmal marketing campaign and Neon Demon's content is was very controversial.
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Jan 24, 2018 21:25
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I recall Abrams saying he thought Mark Hamill had given an Oscar-worthy performance in Star Wars; that was never going to happen but it would've been funny if Hamill had somehow gotten a Best Supporting nod 40 years after Guinness got one for the first Star Wars movie.  More seriously, it's interesting how the conversation has shifted to Shape of Water being the one to beat because I remember in the summer there was a flood of articles about how Nolan probably had Best Directors locked down for Dunkirk and everyone in it was sure to dominate the acting categories. Obviously the latter hasn't happened and the former is not a sure thing. I suppose it goes to show how important release dates are. What's the last movie that won big at the Oscars despite being released quite far out from the awards season? I think the famous one is Silence of the Lambs, which came out at the start of the year then swept the awards, but what big one she have there been since then?
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Jan 24, 2018 22:35
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who the hell thought anyone except maaaaaybe Rylance would get an acting nod for Dunkirk
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Jan 24, 2018 22:38
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Uncle Boogeyman posted:who the hell thought anyone except maaaaaybe Rylance would get an acting nod for Dunkirk Mostly British news outlets getting a bit carried away with the effusiveness of their praise when it came out. I recall Branagh and Hardy both being mentioned as possible contenders although I didn't credit it myself.
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Jan 24, 2018 22:42
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Wheat Loaf posted:I suppose it goes to show how important release dates are. What's the last movie that won big at the Oscars despite being released quite far out from the awards season? I think the famous one is Silence of the Lambs, which came out at the start of the year then swept the awards, but what big one she have there been since then? The Hurt Locker came out the Summer of 2009, was highly talked about as an Oscar contender, but was pretty much ignored by the Fall and was subject to "Whatever happened to The Hurt Locker?" headlines by Christmas. Then it got the Best Picture nomination which everyone thought was cool (though this was the year they expanded to 10 nominations, iirc) and it shockingly took home Best Picture. That's the best I got.
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Jan 24, 2018 22:53
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Wheat Loaf posted:I suppose it goes to show how important release dates are. What's the last movie that won big at the Oscars despite being released quite far out from the awards season? I think the famous one is Silence of the Lambs, which came out at the start of the year then swept the awards, but what big one she have there been since then? On the opposite end of things, the one movie in my recent memory that got hamstrung by bad release timing was Zodiac which got zilch-o nominations for the 2008 Oscars (unless one snuck in for sound mixing or w/e). It dropped like right after the 2007 Nominations were finalized and even though it was an amazing movie, you didn’t hear a single peep about it in the 2008 nominations.
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Jan 24, 2018 23:19
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Okay, predictions. What will win, not what should. Picture: The Post Actor: Gary Oldman Actress: Saoirse Ronan Supporting Actor: Sam Rockwell Supporting Actress: Allison Janney Director: Guillermo Del Toro Animated Feature: Coco Adapted Screenplay: Call Me By Your Name Original Screenplay: Three Billboards Cinematography: Dunkirk Documentary: Last Men in Aleppo Foreign Language: The Square Film Editing: Dunkirk Sound Editing: Star Wars: The Last Jedi Sound Mixing: Dunkirk Production Design: The Shape of Water Original Score: The Shape of Water Original Song: Sufjan Stevens, Call Me By Your Name Makeup and Hair: Darkest Hour Costume Design: Phantom Thread Visual Effects: Star Wars: The Last Jedi Who the gently caress knows on the shorts, I ain't seen any. Get Out gets shut out but the Oscars award themselves for being diverse anyway. The Post wins cause of Fake News, with Three Billboards and Shape of Water being the two runners up. Dunkirk beats out Roger Deakins for cinematography because no one voting wants to sit through Blade Runner. The fashion movie wins the costume category. Documentary voters will never award a French auteur. Pixar won't lose animated features because HYPE. Taking a gamble against predictability to say that Frances McDormand loses to Ronan. Oldman will predictably win because 1) It's HIS time 2) Phantom Thread is too obtuse 3) DDL already has three statues. Unless someone in the media brings up the time Oldman beat his ex with a telephone and also his history of making bigoted comments in public, he's a shoe-in.
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Jan 24, 2018 23:42
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TrixRabbi posted:Okay, predictions. What will win, not what should. Ooo can we gamble in this thread because if The Post or Saoirse happen I’ll eat my foot
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Jan 24, 2018 23:46
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Isn't it pretty rare for a film to win Best Picture if the director isn't also nominated?
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Jan 24, 2018 23:49
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Argo wasn't that long ago.
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Jan 24, 2018 23:52
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My predictions: Picture: The Shape of Water Actor: Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour Actress: Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Supporting Actor: Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Supporting Actress: Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird Director: Guillermo Del Toro, The Shape of Water Original Screenplay: Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards Adapted Screenplay: Call Me By Your Name Cinematography: Mudbound Editing: Dunkirk Makeup: Darkest Hour Original Score: The Shape of Water Visual Effects: Blade Runner Sound Mixing: Dunkirk Sound Editing: Baby Driver Costume design: Phantom Thread Production design: Shape of Water Animated feature: BOSS BABY jk I have no idea on this category Not calling foreign film, documentary or the short categories because I have no idea on those. Dark horses: Sally Hawkins for best actress, Greta Gerwig for best director, Jordan Peele for best original screenplay, Blade Runner for cinematography
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Jan 24, 2018 23:54
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TrixRabbi posted:Oldman will predictably win because 1) It's HIS time 2) Phantom Thread is too obtuse 3) DDL already has three statues. Unless someone in the media brings up the time Oldman beat his ex with a telephone and also his history of making bigoted comments in public, he's a shoe-in. No prospect of Chalamet winning? Most of the predictions I've seen are "Oldman is the front-runner, but if anyone can beat him, it's Chalamet".
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Jan 25, 2018 00:05
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Basebf555 posted:For some reason I'd thought Blade Runner actually was nominated. So yes I've just made a point that is contradicted by this year's nominees. I think it's still generally true, Silence and Neon Demon had some fairly unusual factors going against them. Silence had an absolutely abysmal marketing campaign and Neon Demon's content is was very controversial. I actually didn't know Silence had come out until i looked over someone's shoulder and saw it playing on a plance. Somehow, a movie by Martin Scorsese and starring several 'it boys' slipped under a lot of radars. Wheat Loaf posted:Mostly British news outlets getting a bit carried away with the effusiveness of their praise when it came out. I recall Branagh and Hardy both being mentioned as possible contenders although I didn't credit it myself. I mean, they were fine, but that's not really a film built around its performances. I really want Saoirse Ronan to win, but I have no idea what her chances are. I'm seeing Lady Bird Friday.
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Jan 25, 2018 00:10
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Funny thing about Shape is that GDT made it cheap because he filmed it between seasons of The Strain and used the production crew from that. Also I don't know if this is a nationwide promotion but my local theater chain is doing an "Oscar Week" at the end of February where they're showing all the Best Picture noms. Which is good because I doubt they'll do Phantom Thread or Call Me By Your Name otherwise.
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Jan 25, 2018 00:13
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muscles like this! posted:Funny thing about Shape is that GDT made it cheap because he filmed it between seasons of The Strain and used the production crew from that. Reminds me of that story about Psycho being made by Hitchcock's TV crew because no studio would get behind it.
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Jan 25, 2018 00:40
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Deakins really should have won for No Country, what a horrible twist of fate that TWBB should be released in the same awards year.
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Jan 25, 2018 00:46
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I'm gonna be honest here, I think Get Out is a legit dark horse for Best Picture. There's no one movie that is clearly the Best Picture frontrunner, or even a pair like La La Land and Moonlight last year, there's about half of the BP field that could lay claim to it, which is exactly the circumstances for a big upset, and Get Out getting four nominations is big for a low budget horror movie that doesn't really trade on visuals, and they're in four of the biggest categories to boot (Pic/Actor/Screenplay/Director). I would not say it was the favorite but if I wanted to make a bet that could stand to win some money, I'd go Get Out for best picture in a heartbeat. The only movie I absolutely under no circumstances could ever see winning best picture is Lady Bird. I can see a storyline developing for the other eight that ends with a win, but for whatever reason that one just doesn't have a line to getting there IMO
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Jan 25, 2018 00:57
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DC Murderverse posted:I'm gonna be honest here, I think Get Out is a legit dark horse for Best Picture. There's no one movie that is clearly the Best Picture frontrunner, or even a pair like La La Land and Moonlight last year, there's about half of the BP field that could lay claim to it, which is exactly the circumstances for a big upset, and Get Out getting four nominations is big for a low budget horror movie that doesn't really trade on visuals, and they're in four of the biggest categories to boot (Pic/Actor/Screenplay/Director). They also may want to buck their recent trends and award a film that was popular, made money, and that people liked.
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Jan 25, 2018 00:59
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exquisite tea posted:Deakins really should have won for No Country, what a horrible twist of fate that TWBB should be released in the same awards year. I think he split his own vote. Because I feel strongly the other way...Assassination of Jesse James is astonishing visually. Though, losing to There Will Be Blood is totally understandable. Skyfall losing to Life of Pi is not. That movie was barely "shot." It's inches away from nominating Coco for Best Cinematography.
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Jan 25, 2018 01:10
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Xealot posted:I think he split his own vote. Because I feel strongly the other way...Assassination of Jesse James is astonishing visually. Though, losing to There Will Be Blood is totally understandable. Agreed, I think Assassination of Jesse James is one of the top ten most visually stunning movies of my lifetime. Unfortunately There Will Be Blood is on that list as well, and slightly higher.
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Jan 25, 2018 01:16
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Xealot posted:I think he split his own vote. Because I feel strongly the other way...Assassination of Jesse James is astonishing visually. Though, losing to There Will Be Blood is totally understandable. Yeah, Life of Pi is gorgeous, but it's only well shot in a very broad definition of cinematography. Kind of like Gravity.
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Jan 25, 2018 01:42
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Basebf555 posted:Or if two conventional people want to gently caress but unconventional stuff prevents them from doing it. Really the first step in crafting Oscar bait is two entities, human or otherwise, that want to gently caress. Blade Runner 2049 also defies this. Two synthetic beings trying to gently caress.
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Jan 25, 2018 02:29
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exquisite tea posted:Movies featuring characters who want to gently caress unconvential stuff tend to clean up during awards season. Lars and the Real Girl only got one Academy Award nod and Croenenberg's Crash didn't get any so your thesis is unconvincing
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Jan 25, 2018 02:39
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DC Murderverse posted:Lars and the Real Girl only got one Academy Award nod and Croenenberg's Crash didn't get any so your thesis is unconvincing Her did pretty well though, at least with nominations.
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Jan 25, 2018 02:41
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DC Murderverse posted:I'm gonna be honest here, I think Get Out is a legit dark horse for Best Picture. There's no one movie that is clearly the Best Picture frontrunner, or even a pair like La La Land and Moonlight last year, there's about half of the BP field that could lay claim to it, which is exactly the circumstances for a big upset, and Get Out getting four nominations is big for a low budget horror movie that doesn't really trade on visuals, and they're in four of the biggest categories to boot (Pic/Actor/Screenplay/Director). I want Phantom Thread to win everything, but I think Shape..., Lady Bird, and Dunkirk are the frontrunners for Best Picture. It's only a few years since OscarsSoWhite, sure, but Moonlight and 12 Years a Slave both won Best Picture in the last 5 years so I think it's much more likely that Lady Bird (unique, assertive young woman) or Shape... (silenced woman perseveres) will take it in a year about women's voices being heard, whether or not that's legitimate. I think the Director win is almost too close to call between Nolan and del Toro. Not a fan of Loving Vincent but I think it will sneak a trophy, and in general the animation category sucks this year. Picture: The Shape of Water Actor: Gary Oldman Actress: Sally Hawkins Supporting Actor: Willem Dafoe Supporting Actress: Laurie Metcalf Director: Christopher Nolan Animated Feature: Loving Vincent Adapted Screenplay: Call Me By Your Name Original Screenplay: Lady Bird Cinematography: Blade Runner Documentary: Faces Places Foreign Language: Loveless Film Editing: Dunkirk Sound Editing: Blade Runner Sound Mixing: Baby Driver Production Design: The Shape of Water Original Score: Phantom Thread Original Song: Call Me By Your Name Makeup and Hair: Darkest Hour Costume Design: Phantom Thread Visual Effects: Blade Runner BeanpolePeckerwood fucked around with this message at 03:41 on Jan 25, 2018 |
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Jan 25, 2018 03:39
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Ranked in terms of what I think is most likely to win Best Picture: Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri Pros: Won multiple best picture awards already, plus acting and screenplay awards. Cons: frontrunner backlash, deserved criticism of how the movie looks at race The Shape of Water Pros: 13 nominations, about a silenced woman and fighting a system of discrimination. Cons: still about a woman loving a fish man Get Out Pros: everyone liked it, it made money, it's probably the most important movie of the year. Cons: it's a horror movie from loving Blumhouse Dunkirk Pros: Who doesn't love a WWII movie, especially one made this well and this well liked? Cons: no signature performance, Nolan never gets Academy love The Post Pros: Spielberg, Hanks, Streep, very of the moment. Cons: not any of their best. Call Me by Your Name Pros: just an all-around beautiful movie, looking at Italy is nice. Cons: a "gay movie" just won BP last year, neither of the supporting actors got nominated Phantom Thread Pros: DDL's last movie? Lots of pretty dresses. Cons: Might be a bit weird for Academy people. Lady Bird Pros: by, for, and about women in this, the year of #MeToo. Cons: lighter coming of age movies don't do well with the academy, acting performances overshadowed by I, Tonya Darkest Hour Pros: Gary Oldman. Cons: not even the best WWII movie in the set, not remarkable in any other ways. In terms of what I'd like to win (I've only seen about half so far): Get Out The Shape of Water Lady Bird Dunkirk Three Billboards
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Jan 25, 2018 04:03
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exquisite tea posted:Deakins really should have won for No Country, what a horrible twist of fate that TWBB should be released in the same awards year. the assassination of jesse james by the coward robert ford has the best cinematography in an american movie since days of heaven
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Jan 25, 2018 04:29
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Hugh Jackman and Denis Villeneuve not getting nominated illustrates why the Oscars suck.
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Jan 25, 2018 06:07
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viral spiral posted:Hugh Jackman and Denis Villeneuve not getting nominated illustrates why the Oscars suck.  I did want his performance in Logan nominated but Dennis should have for sure.
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Jan 25, 2018 06:14
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This year offers voters a 1 in 64,373,016,357,421,800 chance of randomly guessing all the correct winners.
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Jan 25, 2018 07:25
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Thread title should clearly have been Academy Awkwards.
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Jan 25, 2018 07:29
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TWBB is a very good movie and it’s cinematography is nice but mostly unremarkable outside of the oil well scene which isn’t half as stunning as deakins’ oil well scene in jarhead several years earlier. both assassination of Jesse James and no country losing to it is absurd
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Jan 25, 2018 07:48
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Mandrel posted:TWBB is a very good movie and it’s cinematography is nice but mostly unremarkable outside of the oil well scene which isn’t half as stunning as deakins’ oil well scene in jarhead several years earlier. both assassination of Jesse James and no country losing to it is absurd I love both Jesse James and No Country but this post is total bullshit and you have no idea what you're talking about. Robert Elswit is loving amazing and his DP Oscar was just as many years in the making as Deakins' has been. The sheer variety of film stock, practical effect lighting, camera equipment, and vintage/modified lens tech used during the shoot of TWBB is nothing short of astounding. And not to sell short Deakins lovely work on Jarhead but the Oil Fields scene is a composite of a soundstage shoot and extensive ILM effects.
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Jan 25, 2018 08:37
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