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https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/973719657822769152
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Mar 14, 2018 01:40
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Mar 14, 2018 01:42
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https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/973721228723834880
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Mar 14, 2018 01:46
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Mar 14, 2018 01:49
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https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/973722634704875520
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Mar 14, 2018 01:51
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Professor Skittles posted:whats with the reddit thread on this "lamb takes a penny but doesen't leave a penny" stuff Professor Skittles posted:whats with the reddit thread on this "lamb takes a penny but doesen't leave a penny" stuff never_go_on_reddit.gif
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Mar 14, 2018 01:53
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Quorum posted:Someone with access to way more data and time than me needs to run a simulation of this November if you apply the average turnout model from all the specials. Erection metaphors are played out but I do want to admire it for, uh, reasons. this seat is R+20 so if you assume a 20 point shift and do the math that's.... 400 seats for the Dems There are seats in Oklahoma less GOP friendly than this one.
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Mar 14, 2018 01:54
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GreyjoyBastard posted:really Yep. By PVI this is the 400th most Democratic seat in the country. Or to flip it, it is the 35th most GOP-friendly seat in the country.
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Mar 14, 2018 01:57
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Lote posted:It’s 300 and change. 400 would be 400-38 which would be the end of the Republican Party. Nope. These are all the seats more GOP than PA-15. There's 35 of them. 
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Mar 14, 2018 01:59
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welp. wrap it up lambailures
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Mar 14, 2018 02:00
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to realpost, the needle is based on their assumptions about where vote is coming from. when stuff comes in higher/lower than they expect it moves it. so you could still see it swing a whole bunch.
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Mar 14, 2018 02:05
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rscott posted:Even Nate thinks the needle is overreacting HERETIC! THE NEEDLE KNOWS ALL! We must have displeased The Needle. What can we do to appease its anger?
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Mar 14, 2018 02:07
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Lamb +0.3 now ALL HAIL THE NEEDLE! WE THANK THEE NEEDLE FOR THY BLESSINGS
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Mar 14, 2018 02:09
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https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/973727862451826691 aw yeah real time regression results, hook it into my veins
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Mar 14, 2018 02:13
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Koalas March posted:are people watching any specific streams or anything? I am watching ALL HAIL THE NEEDLE @Redistrict, @Nate_Cohn and @ForecasterEnten
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Mar 14, 2018 02:16
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how the gently caress is that idiot verified?
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Mar 14, 2018 02:17
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Young Hegelian posted:Does Nate Cohn's explanation of Saccone overperforming his HD explain that dip? His tweets suggest they didn't really account for it as a possibility. Yeah, he's basically saying "we don't account for home district advantage in our model". If your throw it in it explains most of why the needle suddenly freaked out. Additionally that part of the county is much lower education/GOP than the county as a whole and THE NEEDLE extrapolated its results to the rest of the county.
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Mar 14, 2018 02:21
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Lemming posted:https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/973730594743087109 NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO PRAY TO THE NEEDLE FOR FORGIVENESS FOR YOUR SINS
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Mar 14, 2018 02:22
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Mooseontheloose posted:uh...isn't that super illegal or something? I think it's night of reporting.
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Mar 14, 2018 02:23
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DoombatINC posted:Cut the calf on the altar, the needle needs an offering fast Just imagine if they'd turned off THE NEEDLE when it was Saccone +2.1 
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Mar 14, 2018 02:25
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THE NEEDLE HAS MOVED! OUR FAITH IN THE NEEDLE HAS PREVAILED! ALL HAIL THE NEEDLE! (Lamb +0.5 now up from +0.3)
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Mar 14, 2018 02:26
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Mar 14, 2018 02:27
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Charlz Guybon posted:Benchmarks for a tossup are Currently it's: Alleghany D+16 Washington EVEN Greene R+17 Westmoreland R+14
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Mar 14, 2018 02:35
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axeil posted:Currently it's: https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/973712323822092288 Lamb currently at: pre:Allegheny 58.1% Westmoreland 43.1% Washington 49.8% Greene 41.6%
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Mar 14, 2018 02:38
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https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/973734282077331456 PRAY FOR THE RETURN OF NEEDLE TO SAVE US FROM OUR SINS
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Mar 14, 2018 02:39
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axeil posted:Currently it's: https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/973712323822092288 Now pre:Allegheny 58.04% Westmoreland 43.09% Washington 49.76% Greene 41.70%
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Mar 14, 2018 02:41
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axeil posted:https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/973712323822092288 Updating for the latest surge in Allegheny pre:Allegheny 58.00% Westmoreland 43.09% Washington 49.76% Greene 41.70%
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Mar 14, 2018 02:43
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axeil posted:Updating for the latest surge in Allegheny pre:Allegheny 58.00% Westmoreland 42.73% Washington 47.23% Greene 41.70%
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Mar 14, 2018 02:45
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i literally made a spreadsheet to track the benchmarks. i'm the biggest goon.
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Mar 14, 2018 02:49
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Alter Ego posted:Lamb leading by 1.4% with 87% reporting. Sky Shadowing posted:1.5% with 88% reporting! https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/973712323822092288 pre:Allegheny 57.91% Westmoreland 42.73% Washington 47.23% Greene 41.70%
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Mar 14, 2018 02:52
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https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/973712323822092288pre:Allegheny 57.91% Westmoreland 42.53% Washington 46.76% Greene 41.70%
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Mar 14, 2018 02:54
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Ague Proof posted:I hate that these are in the wrong order. me too. But i'm copy/pasting from the nytimes results and that's the order they have it in.
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Mar 14, 2018 02:55
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smoobles posted:This is hosed my heart is going to explode This race will have 0 impact on November win or lose. But it has made Paul Ryan absolutely poo poo his pants. It's the 35th most GOP district in the nation.
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Mar 14, 2018 02:58
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Mustached Demon posted:PRAISE BE THE NEEDLE EVEN IN DEATH IT PROTECTS US https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/973740020061343745 ALL HAIL NEEDLE AS IT DIED FOR OUR SINS
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Mar 14, 2018 02:59
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*automatic* recount. I think the loser can still pay for one.
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Mar 14, 2018 03:03
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Sky Shadowing posted:More data just came in, 96% reporting, 1,238 vote lead for Lamb. His lead grew slightly. At this point we have to look at what's left. Probably ~2,800 votes in Allegheny, 2,000 in Westmoreland and ~4,000 in Washington. The Washington ones are going to be the key.
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Mar 14, 2018 03:08
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https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/973742169113624577
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Mar 14, 2018 03:11
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Ogmius815 posted:Well that's bad. Yeah, but Westmoreland only has probably ~2,000 votes left and even if you cut into Lamb's lead that much I dunno if that's enough to get him over the top. edit: just updated. There's probably only 500 raw votes left in Westmoreland. TURN THE NEEDLE BACK ON NATE
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Mar 14, 2018 03:13
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Alter Ego posted:Lead's down to 918 votes now, but Westmoreland County is 99% in. My estimate of total raw vote remaining: Allegheny: 2,875 Westmoreland: 691 Washington: 4,182
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Mar 14, 2018 03:15
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Shimrra Jamaane posted:This definitely favors Lamb. Messed up the Washington number. It's actually slightly over 4,000.
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Mar 14, 2018 03:16
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