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Zauper posted:That is a hot take. I think barkley will be overdrafted for his performance this year. Too many mouths to feed on that offense. It shouldn't be at all controversial, Zeke easy pick over Barkley.
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Apr 29, 2018 19:48
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Tiptoes posted:I don't think there will be a cap on Barkley, even as a rookie. He's the best back in the history of Yards Created. Interesting analysis there, but I think it actually dampens my expectations relative to the crazy hype I've been reading about him. Barkley had some fairly poor rushing games this year, and in the sorts of metrics that article looks at, he's basically an all around back similar to (or slightly better than) Mixon, Hunt, or Zeke, but with poorer inside running. If you bump up Penn State's oline yards blocked to the college average, Barkley's ypc up the middle bump up to...almost average. NYG definitely isn't the dream landing spot Dallas was for Zeke his rookie year either. Maybe he makes up for it enough with receiving, but in redraft I'm definitely taking a handful of RBs before him and in dynasty (especially superflex) I'm going to try to trade out of 1.01 if I can get a haul.
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Apr 30, 2018 05:44
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RCarr posted:So Sleeperbot does dynasty leagues now. I’m thinking of moving my NFL.com dynasty league there. I can’t do MFL, everyone in my league (including me) hates the layout/design, so I think this is our next best option. Anything you need that fleaflicker can't do?
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May 1, 2018 19:58
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RCarr posted:Was fleaflicker free last year? I remember deciding to go with NFL.com over fleaflicker last season, but now I'm not sure why. Yeah, always been free, main downside is no auction draft, and until this off-season, they didn't break out defensive positions, only had DL, LB, and DB, not separate DE, DT, CB, and S, but they just added that.
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May 1, 2018 20:26
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Does anyone remember seeing something about how college adjusted yards per attempt compares to pro, big scatterplot with each point being a college player's final 1 or 2 year ay/a vs their pro number? Like, pretty sure the conclusion was virtually everybody is less efficient in the pros than in college (duh) and Josh Allen is virtually guaranteed to be trash, but I want to see the actual data again. Edit: Here's what I was thinking of, and it's more interesting than I remembered: https://www.sbnation.com/nfl/2018/4/5/17046116/2018-nfl-draft-quarterbacks-josh-allen-sam-darnold-projections-hype sourdough fucked around with this message at 01:12 on May 4, 2018 |
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May 2, 2018 18:32
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If Josh Allen succeeds, the Bills will have outsmarted basically all regular humans and the entirety of math itself
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May 4, 2018 01:26
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Thelonius Van Funk posted:My dynasty league is drafting now on Sunday, is there any good rookie ranking available for a 2QB-league that I can use as a baseline? I'm doing a few right now. How many teams? In mostly 12 but also a 10 team one, QBs have gone quite early in my experience. Barkley obviously 1.01, but the lack of a clear cut RB to go 1.02 has led to Mayfield or Darnold going there often (otherwise Guice), then the other within the next pick or two. Rosen a couple picks later. Lamar Jackson has surprised me in going early, like top 7 or 8 and definitely in the first everywhere. Josh Allen has been all over, from 6ish to like 15. But this of course also depends how QB needy the top teams are and historically how early your league has drafted them.
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May 4, 2018 21:37
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Thelonius Van Funk posted:It's a 12-team league and I have picks 6 and 7. 1.01 will definitely be Barkley (going to a guy who owns Bell, Shady and Elliot already of course) but I am hoping for there being at least one of the non-Allen QBs available by my picks. Every league will be super different, so tough to know, but I'd have a plan B. Did people bite early on Trubisky, Mahomes, and Watson last year? I'd bet Mayfield and Darnold will probably go earlier than any of them. Of course, worst case is some great RBs drop to you if 3 or 4 QBs go early. Alfalfa posted:Why not offer 1.06 & 1.07 for 1.01 so he can take a QB and a RB? Barkley is somehow hyped up even more than Zeke was. Like, Gurley+ for him, or maaaaybe Beckham straight up. It's crazy. I don't know if even something dumb like 1.02+1.03 gets it done in some leagues.
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May 4, 2018 23:29
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Alfalfa posted:I’d offer 1.06 & 1.07 for Zeke or Bell? I mean yeah, doesn't hurt to ask, but both those guys should cost more than that too. You're right that maybe it won't, though, especially after adding Barkley!
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May 5, 2018 00:02
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Anything besides draft position have Hurst ahead of/in same tier as Gesicki for you?
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May 5, 2018 03:50
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Leperflesh posted:Sorta like how Julio Jones was a lock for top 3 WRs again last year, right? And OBJ? Or like how Adrian Peterson was a lock to be top 3 RB, even when he went to the Saints? Nah, iirc the logic he's saying was not that he thought Antonio Brown or the Steelers offense had changed or gotten worse in any way, it was literally just "no one has been WR1 three years in a row, so Brown can't be this year." Something kind of like mixing up whether you should bet the field against any one player being WR1 (of course) with whether a given player is most likely to be WR1. No one was arguing that a 30 whatever year old Adrian Peterson was going to be a top 3 RB. But I think I agree with you somewhat in this case, I'd shy away from DJ as my #1 just for rust and supporting cast concerns, rather go Gurley or Zeke or Bell, but can't see dropping him less than that.
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May 6, 2018 16:10
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MacheteZombie posted:Yeah I just wanted to dump too much info. Roster: Your RBs need way more help than your WRs. Chubb or Jones for sure, and I'd maybe lean Chubb and hope talent wins out and it's a Dalvin Cook/Latavius Murray/McKinnon situation where Chubb is too good and takes all the work.
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May 8, 2018 01:24
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MacheteZombie posted:
Team getting Fournette and Hilton wins by a ton
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May 9, 2018 03:51
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RCarr posted:He costs $13 in my salary cap league, and I already have Rivers, Goff, Keenum, and Bortles for like $2 a piece. Should I still let him burn a roster spot all season? What is your cap? Do % of cap, not $. If 2 QB and the cap is like $200, keep all those guys and trade one or two if you need roster spots. Definitely don't straight up cut Bortles even though he sucks in real life football, and don't cut Luck before exploring trades. If it's 1 QB, I'm with Beer and would keep just Rivers and Goff.
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May 13, 2018 17:27
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RCarr posted:1QB/2RB/2WR/1TE/3FLEX. It's a dynasty league with a 25 man roster with 3 IR slots. $250 salary cap. Player salaries increase by $1 or 10% each year (whichever is higher). Here's my roster, with this year's salary next to each. I'd cut a lot of other guys before trading Evans for pennies, despite his salary. Unless I messed up, you're at $306. Cutting Bortles, Keenum, Luck, Darkwa, Crabtree, Benjamin, and Ebron gets you to $258. I'd also cut Chris Carson and Ty Montgomery, but you're so weak at RB that maybe you want to hold them (or at least Carson).
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May 14, 2018 15:33
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RCarr posted:I like your trade, but 1.02 + Cook for Barkley seems crazy to me. That's his price, it's silly. He's like a top 5-10 start up guy right now as far as I can tell. I tried to sell high every place I had the 1.01 and wasn't a single RB away from being league favorite. All 2 QB leagues: 1.01 and Corey Davis for 1.03, 1.07, and Tyreek Hill 1.01, 1.10, and Kelce for 1.02, Jameis Winston, OJ Howard, and Juju Smith-Schuster 1.01, 2019 2nd, Tyrod Taylor, and Carlos Hyde for 1.09, 2019 1st, Jimmy Garoppolo, and Devonta Freeman
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May 16, 2018 03:53
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Sataere posted:What I gathered from this post is Barkley is going to be the best running back in the league, because you have the first overall pick in three dynasty leagues. Clearly, you make bad decisions. One of them I was in the championship and had traded for a pick midseason, another was a startup that I got last startup pick in and commish (terribly) decided rookie picks would go reverse order of startup (I'm not complaining, though!), and the last was a 1-year tank because QBs went stupidly early in the startup and I both missed the boat and wouldn't take garbage tier guys over great WRs. RCarr posted:
It was pretty close to a mash imo  I receive 1.02 for Kelce+1.10, and Winston, Juju, and OJ Howard for 1.01? Winston alone is a late 2nd/early 3rd start up pick in 2 QB for me. Edit: Though to be clear, this one was also the tank team. My QBs were McCarron, Peterman, Davis Webb, lol.Sataere posted:Yeah, that's a real bad trade for you. Your opponent ends up with the two best players. Kelce more valuable than Winston? Nah, not even very close. Super easy trade to send TE1 for a young back end QB1. sourdough fucked around with this message at 14:56 on May 16, 2018 |
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May 16, 2018 14:50
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Zauper posted:Offhand, I think you lose both sides of that breakdown. No worries, it's good to get feedback.
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May 16, 2018 15:17
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RCarr posted:Yea no matter how i look at it there's no way you win that trade in my opinion. Especially once Barkley becomes the next Barry Sanders. He's going to rush for 3.6 ypc and have single digit touchdowns, while my man Jameis is going to join the 50-5000 club, you'll see
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May 16, 2018 15:24
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RCarr posted:Could you not just trade Kelce for Jameis straight up? Nah, trade partner's QBs were Cam, Winston, and Cardale Jones, Kelce alone wouldn't have been near enough. The roster with the deepest QBs has Wilson, Bortles, and Cousins, or another with Dak, Garoppolo, Deshaun Watson, and Trubisky, everyone else has at best 2 starters and a third guy with bad long term prospects, like Keenum, Tyrod, or McCown. I'm likely going to take Mayfield at pick 2 and Rosen and Darnold with later 1sts if they fall. And yeah, trading away late 1sts or early 2nds like pick 10 this year is tough, because either ~4 QBs go before you and it's more like pick 6 or 8 or whatever in a 1 QB league, or a QB drops and you get a top 10 NFL pick QB at the scarcest position.
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May 16, 2018 16:04
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So the knocks on Baker Mayfield seem to be (1) he's 1-2" shorter than we'd want (if he was 6'3", he'd have been unanimous QB1) and (2) he plays for the Cleveland Browns. In terms of his actual on field play, are there genuine negatives?
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May 18, 2018 16:40
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Sataere posted:He might also be a raging rear end in a top hat. The question is, is he a Cade McNown level rear end in a top hat or an Aaron Rodgers level rear end in a top hat. I guess him being a massive dickhead could matter, but it feels kind of like his height in that it hasn't seemed to be a problem yet (balls getting batted down at los, teammates punching him in the face or dropping his passes out of spite). I also don't quite know how worried to be about Rosen's health, but right now he's my clear #2. Darnold's turnovers seem more worrisome and the lack of talent on the Jets offense is ridiculous, though that could improve fairly quickly in dynasty terms.
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May 19, 2018 00:13
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So that rebuilding team that I traded away Kelce and 1.01 took a sharp turn towards competing due to some trades When I was on the clock at pick 7, a team with Odell Beckham hit me up about trading him away for picks including that one, and that trade talk spiraled into a huge deal. I didn't give all the context before because it's just one dumb team of one dumb poster, but the draft changed things drastically and it's the off-season so what the hell. 12 team league, 2 QB, PPR, 3 offensive WRT flexes, good defensive scoring with 2 starters at each + 3 defensive flex. Main thing for context is I had banked a ton of draft picks, with 4 first rounders this year and next, plus 3-4 seconds, thirds, and fourths, and had a young WR corps with upside, good TEs, but basically nothing else anywhere. Recent big trades: Gave: pick 1 (Barkley), 10 (Lamar Jackson), Travis Kelce Received: pick 2 (Mayfield), Jameis Winston, OJ Howard, Juju Smith-Schuster Gave: pick 4 (Darnold), 7 (Chubb), four 2019 1sts (mine, teams that had this year's picks 9, 10, 12), Chris Godwin Received: Ezekiel Elliott, Odell Beckham, Matthew Stafford And then a couple smaller deals or trade ups/backs during the draft. Roster with major additions from trades/draft in bold and departures in strikethrough: QB: Jameis Winston, Matthew Stafford, Baker Mayfield, RB: Ezekiel Elliott, Rashaad Penny, Jordan Wilkins, Devontae Booker, Rex Burkhead, Latavius Murray WR: Odell Beckham, Alshon Jeffery, Stefon Diggs, Allen Robinson, Juju Smith-Schuster, DJ Moore, Michael Gallup, Julian Edelman, Devante Parker, Josh Doctson, Donte Moncrief, John Ross, TE: Hunter Henry (RIP), LB: Deone Bucannon, Haason Reddick, Tremaine Edmunds, Rashaan Evans, Leighton Vander Esch DL: Ziggy Ansah, David Irving, Fletcher Cox DB: Jahleel Addae, Jordan Poyer, Jaquiski Tartt, Derwin James Future draft picks: I still have some quality picks next year with those 2nds, but decided to give it a go this year. Still lack good depth at RB and light overall at IDP spots. We'll see if I jumped too early, but I didn't want to miss the chance at adding quality QBs, Zeke, and OBJ, and getting to avoid another year of tanking due to having literally no startable QBs.
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May 23, 2018 16:55
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Sataere posted:It sounds like you are saying you only start three total RB/WR/TE, yet start 9 defensive players. Am I missing something here? It isn't only 3 offensive starters, just typical crap + 3 WRT flexes. Phrased poorly on my part, I was just trying to abbreviate an already long post. And the guy's roster was pretty weak behind those three, so he wanted to try to rebuild to some extent. But agreed, tough for me to turn down that kind of deal even if I wanted. It's a little better in that QBs will go early and often, so "late 1st" is more like early to mid in a 1 QB league. Some crazy person took Josh Allen at 5 this draft, after Mayfield, Rosen, Darnold went 2-4... Then a crazier person took Mason Rudolph at 6 lol. Picks 7-9 were like 2-4 in a normal league. I guess the expectations right now are for poorer QB prospects next year, right? If not, and another 3-5 QBs go early first, that trade looks a lot better for the side getting the picks.
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May 23, 2018 20:57
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Beer4TheBeerGod posted:I'm not trying to be a homer here, but why shouldn't Alex Smith potentially have a Top 10 season this year? Odds are against any mid 30s QB replicating their one outlier top 3 fantasy season, but especially one that moved teams, and that traded Kelce and Tyreek Hill for Reed and Doctson/Richardson/Crowder I guess? But he's had a few other decent seasons with nice TD:turnover ratios, and I'd expect him to be like QB#10-15ish, so I'm not getting against him squeaking into the top 10.
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May 23, 2018 21:02
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Sataere posted:In a 2 QB league, getting Stafford there is huge. The fact that people go hog wild on quarterbacks only increases the value of those second rounders. I was terrified of having to actually rely on Darnold to develop into a functional QB, ecstatic to offload him in part for an already decent one.
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May 24, 2018 00:44
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That's a nice haul! And good advice
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May 24, 2018 23:14
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Roster limits on positions increases the value of top end guys at that position, since you can't stash a bunch of iffy guys and see who becomes useful, yeah? Dynasty superflex with a cap of 4 QBs on roster, I should prioritize good secure QBs even more than normal uncapped superflex? (Provided the other positions are not as relatively restricted, anyway)
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May 26, 2018 00:26
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Amergin posted:Yes but also that's dumb, IMHO. Half the fun in dynasty is stashing a bunch of iffy guys and seeing who becomes useful. Completely agreed, but can't change it now. Just wanted to be sure I wasn't missing something with how it affects values.
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May 26, 2018 00:49
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Leperflesh posted:assuming 12 teams, are there really 48 qbs worth owning? If not, then the roster limit isn't really going to affect availability. Every team will hold 4 QBs, it's deep rosters. It's the kind of league where Garoppolo will have been rostered at least the last 3 years. Mostly it also means you can't stash a guy like Davis Webb or Mason Rudolph, or hopeful FAs like Garoppolo or McCarron, or hold both Tyrod/Mayfield or Luck/Brisset without severely affecting your QB depth. In my experience, there are always teams scrambling to replace a QB that goes down injured, or that has an Eli or Brady or Ben or Brees or Rivers and is getting antsy about adding a younger option. My leagues may also be kinda weirdly deep, though, as even the 1 QB leagues I'm in tend to have big enough rosters that everyone has 2-3 QBs and the waiver wire is gross. Anyway, I ended up with Rodgers, Wilson, Cousins, and Mayfield, so I'm set 
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May 31, 2018 23:45
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RCarr posted:When I checked it looked like the max limit for players you could keep in a dynasty league was 15, so that immediately disqualified it for my dynasty league. Hasn't been true for a few years now, if it was before that Zauper posted:especially if you want ads that contain malware. But this is the truth 😑 Only reason to use their app is so you don't get horrible redirect ads on your phone browser
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Jun 6, 2018 23:00
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RCarr posted:I tried to set up a league in the last month and it wouldn’t let me go above 15 keepers. I'm in leagues with 40 keepers, so not sure what the issue was. Looks like 44 is the cap. Settings -> edit keeper rules -> number of keepers. You probably have to set your roster limits first; if you had a max of 15 players on each roster, I'm not surprised if it wouldn't have entries in that menu greater than 15 (how could you keep more than 15 if you couldn't roster more than 15?). Edit: Confirmed that's the case, max keepers depends on what your roster size is set to. And not sure what max is, actually, looks like probably whatever roster max + taxi squad is. It used to be hard capped at 40, but I think that's changed, if you want ridiculously deep rosters. sourdough fucked around with this message at 23:43 on Jun 6, 2018 |
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Jun 6, 2018 23:40
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RCarr posted:I'm still working on trimming my roster to make room and cap space for the rookie draft. I forget, are rookie picks only for rookies, or can you use them on FAs? In either case, I'd snap someone's hand off if they offered a random 2019 2nd for Crabtree. I'd also agree a 3rd for Funchess is light, but I'm also not very excited for him with Moore added. I wouldn't bet he's more than a low WR3 (which is still worth more than a 3rd, of course).
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Jun 13, 2018 22:45
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If he'll take random garbage like that, definitely do it. But I wouldn't give up anything of real value. There's a big tier after Barkley that's hard to separate. Penny or Ronald Jones or Chubb are all good prospects too.
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Jun 20, 2018 14:44
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Alfalfa posted:You are drafting purely on available opportunities. I flip flop between Penny and Guice as my 1.02 (both are 1st round talents in decent situations), so don't totally disagree, but you're putting way too much stock in what's being said about rookies in June. More specifically, Chubb, Freeman, and Rojo are all good bets to get decent work this year. We saw just last year Dalvin Cook take over from Latavius Murray, despite even in late July that not being a sure thing, so way too early to count out Chubb as the starter. For Freeman, you're really worried about Booker? That job is wide open. And for Jones, again, you're counting it as set in stone that Peyton Barber is going to be the undisputed lead back?
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Jun 21, 2018 18:46
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Leperflesh posted:I expect typically your #1 WR is less important than your bellcow back, yes For a QB's passing numbers?
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Jun 30, 2018 00:08
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Alfalfa posted:Don’t worry. I got what you meant by the original post. Same
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Jun 30, 2018 00:30
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Drunk Nerds posted:I forgot about Olsen. He’s good. Jonathan Stewart leaving frees up 200 carries from last year, and Cam rushed more than he has any other year too. CJ Anderson has never averaged lesss than 4 ypc. He'll get goal line looks and early down carries over CMC. Why do you think he's horrible?
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Jul 7, 2018 05:48
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Azhais posted:That's also the last TE they had that was worth throwing to Pretend I took the time to go back and find the posts hyping up Martellus Bennet last year and Jared Cook the year before.
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Jul 9, 2018 21:30
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Azhais posted:yeah, but Rodgers was dead last year, and I never thought much of Cook Oh I know, I think what I posted was too ambiguous. Totally agreed on GB having junk at TE for a long time now, but that doesn't stop people from hyping up the latest mediocre dude to land there for some reason.
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Jul 9, 2018 23:19
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