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Sataere
Jul 20, 2005


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I think you are missing a pretty fantastic fantasy resource. :v:

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Sataere
Jul 20, 2005


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Drunk Nerds posted:

Thanks, Beer!

Need just a few more for a slow draft. The only requirement is that you write a short blurb about your strategy going in, them analyze how it worked out after drafting is done.

https://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=3854617

Guys, we are still a couple slots short of this. Let us know if you are interested.

Sataere
Jul 20, 2005


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Beer, for the OP...

Football Absurdity is goon run and an excellent fantasy football resource. It blends comedy and information to let you know what players you should be looking for. Football Absurdity has games, puzzles and personality quizzes. What it doesn't have is information on the value of Mike Davis!"

Sataere
Jul 20, 2005


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This is a great read.

Sataere
Jul 20, 2005


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I feel like some kind of event is a great idea. I'm going to propose something for one of my leagues. I feel like a decathalon of random stuff could be fun.

Sataere
Jul 20, 2005


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I want something less skill based and more drinking based.

Sataere
Jul 20, 2005


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Veritek83 posted:

shot roulette if you play with high functioning alcoholics- 12 shots handed out, one is actually water, whoever gets it gets last pick. One lucky someone ends up with 1st overall and an extended stay on the bathroom floor

everyone doing a March Madness bracket is what we do in my longest running league- functionally random but it gives us all an excuse to get together for games and beers in March

Holy gently caress, how does this not turn into a ten man draft, after the first and second picks die.

I dig your style.

Sataere
Jul 20, 2005


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Beer4TheBeerGod posted:

You can live after 12 shots.

I don't recommend it.

But you can live.

Depends how quickly you take them in a row. Also, you definitely won't want to live after winning the first overall pick.

Sataere fucked around with this message at 17:20 on May 4, 2018

Sataere
Jul 20, 2005


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Thelonius Van Funk posted:

My dynasty league is drafting now on Sunday, is there any good rookie ranking available for a 2QB-league that I can use as a baseline?

Once I'm done with work, I'll have my initial dynasty rankings article up. I'll put the link in the thread tonight once it is done.

Also, it's way too early for dynasty drafts. Wait for the start of training camp. There is no real feel for players yet.

Sataere
Jul 20, 2005


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Honestly, it probably does not make too much of a difference. Dynasty is all about long term projections, and once you see where somebody is drafted, you have 80% of what you need to know.

Has anyone ever considered making a league where you have to redraft every week? Would that even be feasible?

Sataere
Jul 20, 2005


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He is in a 2 QB league, so I suspect most of the first round is going to be quarterbacks. I still think Barkley is 1.01, but it's not a slam dunk. You could definitely justify taking a quarterback number one.

Sataere
Jul 20, 2005


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Thelonius Van Funk posted:

It's a 12-team league and I have picks 6 and 7. 1.01 will definitely be Barkley (going to a guy who owns Bell, Shady and Elliot already of course) but I am hoping for there being at least one of the non-Allen QBs available by my picks.

How is he picking first with those guys?

Sataere
Jul 20, 2005


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Thelonius Van Funk posted:

He traded Kirk Cousins for a 2017 1st and a 2018 first that turned into 1.01. Also I have tried to move up but everyone is so rookie horny that it's basically impossible once the draft order is set. It would cost around four first rounders or equivalent to move up to 1.01

Then trade down for future picks if you can. Barkley, even though he absolutely is deserving of his number one pick, is seriously overrated. This year is like 2014 when it comes to dynasty depth, only it's the running backs that are so great.

If you find yourself in a position to get an extra first next year or an extra second this year just for moving down, do it.

Last year, I had three second round picks and I just got sad realizing that this year, I traded my second rounder for Will Fuller and a fourth. Looks like someone is going to be trying to trade back this year. :(

Sataere
Jul 20, 2005


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Alfalfa posted:

I’d offer 1.06 & 1.07 for Zeke or Bell?

Couldn’t hurt and he might be open to it just drafting the greatest rookie RB in the history of the NFL.

Now that's interesting. He can't start all of those guys, so you might be able to swing something.

Sataere
Jul 20, 2005


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Dynasty rankings version 1.0

Sataere
Jul 20, 2005


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sourdough posted:

Anything besides draft position have Hurst ahead of/in same tier as Gesicki for you?

I think all three tight ends are interchangeable, but I suspect by the start of training camp, Gesicki will be my number one tight end. The only edge Hurst has at the moment is draft position.

I don't really care for this year's tight end class though. I was much higher on any of the top five tight ends last year than I am any this year.

Sataere
Jul 20, 2005


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My favorite part was future hall of famer Philip Rivers.

Sataere
Jul 20, 2005


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I think the easiest thing to do in fantasy football is just trust talent. A couple years back, I remember arguing against drafting Antonio Brown first overall. My logic was nobody has been that dominant three years in a row. I'm dumb.

Sataere
Jul 20, 2005


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sourdough posted:

Nah, iirc the logic he's saying was not that he thought Antonio Brown or the Steelers offense had changed or gotten worse in any way, it was literally just "no one has been WR1 three years in a row, so Brown can't be this year." Something kind of like mixing up whether you should bet the field against any one player being WR1 (of course) with whether a given player is most likely to be WR1. No one was arguing that a 30 whatever year old Adrian Peterson was going to be a top 3 RB.

But I think I agree with you somewhat in this case, I'd shy away from DJ as my #1 just for rust and supporting cast concerns, rather go Gurley or Zeke or Bell, but can't see dropping him less than that.

This is exactly what I was saying.


Leperflesh posted:

Sorta like how Julio Jones was a lock for top 3 WRs again last year, right? And OBJ? Or like how Adrian Peterson was a lock to be top 3 RB, even when he went to the Saints?

What I'm getting at is yes, trust talent, if the team is otherwise functional. But there are so many counterfactuals that it's totally reasonable to think that a top star player may regress in a given year for reasons x, y, and z. I dunno about that Browns call, but I'd say DJ is a big risk this year if you're taking him in the top five and I'd probably not do that in redraft.

I dislike all the counter examples you provided for the following reasons.

1) Julio had his offensive coordinator change, so there was a significant change that you didn't know how it would effect him. But even with all that, I am comfortable taking Julio as one of my first receivers this year.
2) ODB got hurt. You can't plan for injuries and before he got hurt, he was on pace for ending the year as a WR1. He also has not had a functional offense in New York and still been dominant when on the field.
3) In no universe did anyone think AD was a lock to be a top three RB. All you need to do is look at where he was drafted to see this. People hoped Sean Payton would somehow fix him, but he was always a mid-round lottery pick.

Talent finds a way. With AB84, his situation hadn't even changed and I was writing him off for bad reasons. David Johnson should be in the same conversation as Zeke, Bell and Gurley. I legitimately hope all you guys sleep on him, because I want all the DJ shares!

Sataere
Jul 20, 2005


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Alfalfa posted:

2015 Bell and 2016 Gurley :smug:

This will be my default comeback in case I am wrong. :D

Sataere
Jul 20, 2005


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Thelonius Van Funk posted:

Had my rookie draft today in my 2qb league. Managed to get Rosen at 1.06 and traded away 1.07 and 2.12 for 2.03 and a 2019 1st.
The first round was
Barkley
Guice
Mayfield
Chubb
Penny
Rosen
Michel
Kerryon Johnson
Lamar Jackson
DJ Moore
Ronald Jones
Josh Allen

I also got an offer for Dez Bryant for my 3.08 pick which was too much possible upside for me to turn down. I feel like there's no chance that Dez doesn't get a shot with some team.

I'm not sure I pass Michel where you took him. I really like him, but I get it.

I'm not sure I'd pass Bryant either for 3.08. You are basically trading lottery picks there. What are your top three choices for the second round?

Sataere
Jul 20, 2005


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IcePhoenix posted:

Good lord, I can't even imagine someone that homer-ish that they though AD was going to be that good on the saints :stare:

Especially once Kamara was drafted. When that happened, I feel everyone realized that the Saints didn't really love AD.

Sataere
Jul 20, 2005


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That is a weirdly put together article. On the one hand, I agree with his overall point about McKinnon underachieving throughout his career. On the other hand, after reading that, I kinda feel like I'm wrong to have that opinion and now want to rate him higher. :v:

Sataere
Jul 20, 2005


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Drunk Nerds posted:

While I feel Chubb has the higher ceiling, consider that you may want someone starting NOW. That's Jones

Chubb was taken with the second pick in the second round. There is a very good chance he is starting right away.

Chubb is who I take there.

Sataere
Jul 20, 2005


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Azhais posted:

Are there any tight ends worth taking in this rookie draft (or guys that may be in line for an expanded role elsewhere)? My dynasty team only has Greg Olsen and while he's been a trooper, that's probably not a sustainable option past this year

The three top guys are Hurst, Gesicki and Goedert. Gesicki is a SPARQ monster, so probably has the highest upside. I probably wouldn't look at any of them before the third round of a rookie draft. Possibly fourth, depending on how it played out.

Sataere
Jul 20, 2005


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Azhais posted:

It's a 16 team league so 3rd is getting pretty late, but Gesicki is already taken so hardly seems worth chasing the other guys at 2.7. I'll keep an eye on them and see who falls, thanks for the suggestions!

Snagged Penny with the 1.07, so hopefully that works out. Be nice to have him and Alvin anchoring my RBs for a few years so I can get my IDP back in order

Penny is my number two overall player in dynasty atm, so that's a huge get at seven.

Post who has been taken so far, since I'm bored at work and feel like micromanaging your draft! :v:

Sataere
Jul 20, 2005


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MacheteZombie posted:

Hurst just got taken 1.11 in my rookie draft.

That is way too early. This rookie class had seven running backs who can potentially start week one as the starters on their respective teams, five quarterbacks taken in the first round and a fee receivers. Hurst at 11 is insane. I'm guessing that guy is desperate for tight ends and feels good about his team being in the championship.

Sataere
Jul 20, 2005


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Azhais posted:

Got him at 8 actually, remembered my draft slot :v:

1 Saquon Barkley
2 Derrius Guice
3 Sony Michel
4 Nick Chubb
5 Ronald Jones
6 DJ Moore
7 Royce Freeman
8 Rashaad Penny
9 Kerryon Johnson
10 Courtland Sutton
11 Lamar Jackson
12 Baker Mayfield
13 Christian Kirk
14 Calvin Ridley
15 Michael Gallup
16 Josh Rosen
17 Roquan Smith
18 Hayden Hurst
19 Tremaine Emunds
20 Anthony Miller
21 Mike Gesicki
22 and 23 are the same team and we're still pending
24 is me again

e: guy picking at 22/23 is weak at RB/WR/LB, ok elsewhere, and people tend to draft for need in this league

Are you eyeing Darnold there? IDP kinda fucks up the values, since I don't know how big an impact defensive scoring has.

MacheteZombie posted:

I think it's way too early as well. TE was probably his biggest need, so maybe it'll pan out, but his team is usually a poor performer during the season, so he could have gotten more value elsewhere.





e: would giving up crabtree and perine for the 2.02 be too much? I'd use it to get Royce Freeman

Royce Freeman at 2.02 seems early. Where are you picking next?

I think it's important to remember that rookies have a pretty high bust rate. It's better to have a lot of early picks and just hedge. Although it's hard to argue against his situation.

I personally think Perine is poop, so to me, it's a question of Crabtree for a second rounder. I'm not sure if I could do it, but I could see why it seems like an attractive option.

Sataere
Jul 20, 2005


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MacheteZombie posted:

I'd be picking at 3.05 next.

quick list of remaining options:


e: reminder 10 man league and scoring is: .5 ppr for wr, .75 for rb, 1 pt for te

I didn't realize you didn't have a second rounder. I'll say two things.

1) I tend to hedge with rookie drafts, because it is so volatile.
2) When I really like someone, if I think I can get then, I try to get them if the price is right.

I'd say follow those parameters and you'll be happy. Number two has gotten me Alvin Kamara and Christine Michael. :v:



Azhais posted:

Our IDP scoring is on the higher end, but still not on par with offense in any respect, we just start a bunch of them.

For reference, top performers:
QB: Wilson w/354
RB: Gurley w/385
WR: Brown w/314
TE: Kelce w/234
DE: Cameron Jordan w/184
LB: Mosley w/234
CB: Slay w/188
S: Reshad Jones w/214

Starters: 1QB, 2RB, 2WR, 1TE, 1RB/WR, 1 WR/TE (don't ask me), 3 DT/DE, 3 LB, 2 CB, 2 S, 1 defensive flex, and the obligatory kicker

Picks also came in for your enjoyment:
22. Dante Pettis
23. Dallas Goedert

e: I suppose for your full micromanagement, I've got (partial list, nobody wants to see all 46 on this drat roster):

QB: Luck/Bridgewater/Taylor/Chad Kelly on my TS
RB: Kamara/Penny/Bernard/Lewis
WR: Michael Thomas/Tyreek Hill/Cooper Kupp/Kelvin Benjamin
TE: Olsen
DE: Nobody worth mentioning but damned if I'm drafting one high
LB: Telvin Smith
CB/S: Pretty much whoever I find on waivers

So on some levels Darnold has appeal, I've got a ton of QB but since everyone in the league seems to hate Tyrod who knows how that'll play out and I don't expect Bridgewater to do anything.

Someone like James Washington also looks nice. And there's a dark part of me considering Derwin James, I doubt he falls to my 3rd round

I had the Derwin James thought too, but agree I'd probably wait until the third. You can find someone on waivers with that position.

drat, I hope for both our dynasty teams sakes, Luck comes back!

Sataere
Jul 20, 2005


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Poque posted:

Terrible fantasy league idea:

Multiple drafts, all by position. Before these drafts, you have a draft of draft positions. Prior year order finish (or random draw) determines the draft order for the draft of draft positions.

So the draft order draft might go like....
1st pick takes the 1st pick of the RB draft
2nd pick takes the 1st pick of the QB draft
3rd pick takes the 2nd pick of the RB draft
etc

Then you have the position drafts (not sure what order these would go in, since there is strategy there):
4 round draft of QBs (maybe just 2 round)
6 round draft of RBs
6 round draft of WRs
2 round draft of TEs
2 round draft of DEFs
2 round draft of Ks

After all this garbage is done, everybody creates their roster from the 22 players they've drafted (1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 1 FLEX, 1 K, 1 DEF, 5 BEN) and drops everybody else.

Maybe I just like drafting too much.

Sever

Sataere
Jul 20, 2005


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Drunk Nerds posted:

Did you ever try the Calvinball league on SA? IT's basically that but contained to a single season. I never did it, but it seems that the consensus was it's fun but being commish is brutally hard because you get tax code levels of rule interactions

I've always wanted to try this. The problem is I am in anywhere from four to twelve leagues and my sanity can only take so much

Sataere
Jul 20, 2005


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MacheteZombie posted:



Received this offer not too long ago.

I'm confused. Are those picks for this year or next year? It says 2018, but Chubb was drafted, so I am unsure.

Also, holy gently caress did that guy really give you Fournette AND three seconds in a super deep rookie draft? Is he a Georgia homer who really loves Chubb?

Sataere
Jul 20, 2005


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Is he the Kamara owner? Because if not, he didn't.

Sataere
Jul 20, 2005


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RCarr posted:

:thunk:

Usually in order for a fantasy player to be traded, he must have an owner.

Yeah, but I'm referencing the article that said don't go trading for Kamara yet. If the Henry owner initiated the trade, he didn't read the article. :v:

Sataere
Jul 20, 2005


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MacheteZombie posted:

Which GB WR rookie would you rather draft in dynasty this year, Equanimeous St. Brown or J'Mon Moore?

First one. Then the other.

Serious answer, Moore is a 4th rounder, St. Brown is a 6th. I think draft equity is in Moore's side. Moore is also in the 78th percentile for SPARQ score, so he's the more athletic of the two, but not by a significant amount.

Honestly, all the receivers the Packers grabbed have similar traits. I think they are grabbing a type and hoping one emerges as the clear favorite.

Is Marqeez Valdes-Scantling already taken? Because he's also a Packers receiver.

Sataere
Jul 20, 2005


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MacheteZombie posted:

All three are available, and I would be using probably my 3rd and/or 4th round picks for them.

I picked Christian Kirk with my first of three second round picks from that trade.

Kirk is a solid second rounder. I'm partial to Anthony Miller, but I also am a college production homer and a Bears homer. He's someone I can't look at without being biased.

How many of the quarterbacks are available?

Sataere
Jul 20, 2005


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MacheteZombie posted:

With my 2.07 n 2.08 I took Rosen and Anthony Miller.

E: I feel pretty good about my second round. I debated DJ Chark for a bit, but I'm not confident in Bortles enough to make him super productive. I do have Allen Robinson so maybe doubling up on bears wasn't the best idea?

Actually in dynasty, I think it's a more viable strategy. I consider it a hedge.

All three of those are guys I'd be excited to have in the second round. It's a shame you weren't able to grab a running back though.

Sataere
Jul 20, 2005


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Zauper posted:

I'm not the biggest fan of Miller because I don't think we know enough about that offense to know how much volume the WR2 (his upside -- Arob got paid) is going to get. We also frankly don't know if Trubisky is all that good.

Chark has many of the same question marks. The WR room is uncertain, Bortles isn't great. However, Chark is more guaranteed snaps in my mind -- he brings something unique to the offense (speed), and was drafted in part because he's a good run blocker. Snaps means opportunity.

I think the only competition Miller has is Kevin White this year. And like I said before, I favor college production a lot and there is no denying Miller produced. He's really athletic and angry. I just like the guy.

Also, since this is dynasty, it's not that big an issue if he doesn't produce this year, but I still think he had the clearer path. He just has to beat out White. Unless osteoporosis is contagious, dude has a clear path to a starting role.

Chark is good and I definitely have him on the same tier as Miller, but he's got more competition to see the field. Last year, Jacksonville got two rookies and Marqise Lee is still there.

Sataere
Jul 20, 2005


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Zauper posted:

In terms of seeing the field for volume, you're (maybe) right. Miller is going to see the field since White is going to get injured again, but his ceiling is capped, because he's behind A-rob. And we're not sure yet what kind of volume Burton will see, or Cohen out of the backfield.

However, Chark is definitely going to see the field. The Jags clearly don't have faith in cole/dede, given that they brought in a WR and then drafted another in the 2nd. And again, Chark was drafted explicitly because he brings two things that none of them do -- that's a sign to me that he's getting time. In order for Chark to open up space for the run game as a receiver, he needs to get volume and be on the field. In order to use his ability as a run blocker, he again needs to be on the field. It's clear to me how he fits into the OC's vision of the run-first offense -- he's a player that demands attention by virtue of being on the field, which means you need to use him, and adds value to that run game directly through his ability as a blocking WR.

I do have them more or less in the same tier, but I feel like Chark is being underrated because of the crowded Jags room of 'meh' WRs. The top WR there -- Lee -- I'd expect to see about 100 targets vs 150+ish for Arob. Essentially, I think Chark has better opportunity by virtue of not competing with a big name for WR1 level volume.

I think it depends on how you interpret drafting Chark in the second round. I don't think it necessarily means they lack faith in Dede/Cole, so much as they just lost A-Rob and Allen Hurns. I think it's much more likely they are just adding necessary depth and they really liked the value Chark provided at his draft slot.

I also doubt they are really down on Cole/Dede. They rode both of them to the AFC championship game in their rookie years. Both definitely showed flashes.

I agree with your concerns about Miller. There are a lot of mouths to feed. But I think you are underselling the issues Chark brings. His college production is very limited, so there are real questions about how he'll perform in the NFL.

I know LSU was a mess in the passing game, but that doesn't mean he can actually do the little things that make a receiver succeed. The guy has six receiving touchdowns in two years. How does a guy that big, fast and strong only get three touchdowns a year? If you took one of Anthony Miller's last two seasons, it's better than both of Chark's last two seasons combined.

But there is no denying Chark's athleticism. If he hits, he should be a home run for Jacksonville. To me, the difference is that Miller has a very high floor and ceiling, whereas Chark had a very low floor with a much higher ceiling than Miller.


FAKE EDIT:

Spoeank posted:

bruhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh

I addressed this!

Sataere posted:

Unless osteoporosis is contagious, dude has a clear path to a starting role.

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Sataere
Jul 20, 2005


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Everyone of those fuckers who brings this up conveniently forget to mention the passing game. Why don't they mention Ingram's 58 targets in the passing game last year? If Kamara just gets five more opportunities a game because of this, it's a pretty significant boost.

60 targets and 220 carries would be a huge bump on his numbers from last year. And it wouldn't be that much of a stretch. Because that's what Ingram did.

They are ignoring the role reversal that could happen, with Kamara taking Ingram's volume from last year and Ingram taking Kamara's.

Ben Nevis posted:

Don't expect any guy to get 400 touches. That's solid advice.

Fixed that for you.

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