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Now that Haddad is on the verge of overtaking everyone for second place, I wonder what will happen in the Haddad x Bolsonaro scenario, especially after the courts went above and beyond making sure Lula couldn't run.
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Sep 16, 2018 16:47
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Crowsbeak posted:I just saw Glenn Greenwald covering this. Well, that's because it's the same people astroturfing poo poo. https://theintercept.com/2017/08/09/atlas-network-alejandro-chafuen-libertarian-think-tank-latin-america-brazil/
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Sep 18, 2018 05:49
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Metal Cat posted:I'd be wary of giving too much credit to astroturfed campaigns: it's not that they don't influence people, it's just that ideas don't exist in a vacuum and often they can only thrive if the conditions are ripe for it. MBL is a tiny joke, decades of Veja and center-right liberals did the groundwork organically here, because at the end of the day it's still a country of 190 million people and you're gonna get dozens of millions of right-wingers in a multiparty system no matter what. No one is suggesting that ideas exist in a vacuum or that Brazil hasn't had a long and historied right wing tradition. Raymundo Faoro "Os Donos do Poder" already nailed pretty well this tendency of reactionary public servants who want to kick the ladder for everyone else in terms of public benefits. But you know what doesn't happen? People don't wake up one day and go "you know what, Hitler was a leftist." Especially not in a country like Brazil, where the 2nd world war doesn't loom over every bit of culture as it does in the US. It's a particular type of right wing discourse that is specifically American. And saying that it wasn't the millions spent on astroturfing that made this popular in Brazil, it was the internet, is a distinction without a difference, because most of the Randian/libertarian "collectivist/statist"rhetoric in the US was also astroturfed as hell.
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Sep 18, 2018 14:14
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curried lamb of God posted:Is there a runoff if no candidate hits 50%? yes
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Sep 24, 2018 01:38
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All my PSDB "friends" are talking themselves into Bolsonaro. My favorite reasons why: - If the economy improves it will be hard to remove the left from power again - Alternating party in charge is good for democracy (though don't ask who they are voting for governor in Sao Paulo)
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Sep 24, 2018 14:24
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I mean, in terms of domestic policy, even the average centrist democrat in the US is more radical than PT. PT's program has very little in terms of making the tax code more progressive, for example. The only area where PT is substantially to the left of the American establishment is in foreign policy (which explains why Obama was at best complicit with the 2016 coup). But domestically, what sets PT apart from the rest is that PT is in favor of some additional social spending at the margins and the expansion of labor rights. Which explains why, in the minds of the Brazilian middle class and above, not being able to have a maid work 12 hours on sunday for the same salary for years is a sign of cultural marxism.
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Sep 25, 2018 14:18
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Sheng-Ji Yang posted:
Well, at least Manuela appears on this one.
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Sep 25, 2018 14:25
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In line to vote at my Brazilian consulate . Never seen a line this long, I'd say 80% bozo voters. They are openly campaigning for him here, and the Globo people covering this are joining them, asking for pictures and all that.
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Oct 7, 2018 16:41
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If the exit polls at the state level are right, I think Bolsonaro wins in the first round. Essentially every senate candidate from PT that was leading in the polls till recently is out, according to exit polls. Dilma, Suplicy, Lindbergh, even associated candidates like Requiao are far behind in exit polls.
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Oct 7, 2018 21:28
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cargo cult posted:what happens if they elect a fascist isnt the country like 50% poc Race relations are far more complex in Brazil than in the US and colorism is a thing, where light skinned people who would be considered non-white in the US see themselves as white in Brazil. To use perhaps the most famous example,. Neymar said that he has never been a victim of racism because he is not black.
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Oct 7, 2018 21:46
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For the Portuguese speaking goons, here's a good summary of the ways in which the judiciary hosed over the PT: https://theintercept.com/2018/10/07/judiciario-fake-news-bolsonaro-eleicao/ It is remarkable that the same supreme court that censors any statements by Lula under the argument that it can potentially mislead voters does absolutely nothing when Bolsonaro's son posts a demonstrably fake video of voting machines being hacked.
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Oct 8, 2018 14:49
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To all the American goons just joining us, I just want to point out that the Obama admin was at the very, very least complicit in the soft coup of 2016, and may have helped engineer it.
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Oct 8, 2018 16:02
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Oct 9, 2018 03:08
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Yeah, it's a massive "they won't eat MY face" attitude for a large segment of the population. But the other part is also simple class warfare. I know highly trained economist who worked in the Marina and Amoedo campaigns. People who understand full well the threat to democracy that Bolsonaro represents. But the thing about Brazilian class relations is that they are not so abstract thing in people's minds. It's up close and personal. Most upper class people have maids, doormans, cooks, drivers, etc. The easiest way to break the ice with an upper middle class person is to complain about your maid. How you had to lock down the TV in your house because otherwise the maid would only watch novelas, or how you had to spend so much time teaching her to use the new washing machine. For that contingent, it's pure class warfare. They don't want the maid salary going up, the expansion of their labor rights, etc. I've heard more than once how PT has made Brazilians lazy because 10 year ago you could hire anyone you wanted for 300 reais, but now all the lazy bums would rather mooch off of mah money than work! Edit: It's important to remember that while PT may be unpopular, if Lula had been allowed to run he'd be the favorite (and PT still elected the most people to congress). It has taken a massive, organized effort by the people who orchestrated the impeachment to get to the point where PT is the underdog. Lula was arrested in record time, he is currently the only person in jail who is prohibited from talking to the press (and the press is prohibited from printing anything he says), and Moro is releasing depositions by car wash suspects that were rejected by the prosecution for being too flimsy, during the week of the election. joepinetree has issued a correction as of 04:01 on Oct 10, 2018 |
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Oct 10, 2018 03:58
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https://twitter.com/BlogdoNoblat/status/1049840531268935680
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Oct 10, 2018 14:40
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https://twitter.com/snesfca/status/1049851918401572864 He was missing one, however: https://twitter.com/FukuyamaFrancis/status/1050043678490673152
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Oct 11, 2018 14:47
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TFW the democrats who can't wait to make pronouncements about Venezuela, Cuba or Nicaragua are suddenly all quiet on Bolsonaro.
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Oct 11, 2018 17:58
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get that OUT of my face posted:i know that high finance and fascism go together like peanut butter and jelly, but the big rises and falls in brazilian markets as a reaction to electoral goings on is sickening. first came the markets going up over 2% when it was confirmed lula was going to jail. then it was a similar jump after polls showed bolsonaro with a comfortable lead. now they took a tumble because bolsonaro said that he had no interest in privatizing Petrobras. finance vultures really, really want to feast on brazil The source of all these is this: https://www.instagram.com/barbiefascista/
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Oct 12, 2018 19:08
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https://www.instagram.com/p/Bo38oSuju8G/ Edit: and to continue the series of "I cant believe this moron supports Bolsonaro" anecdotes, one of my uncles just totally had a melt down with me. He supports Bolsonaro, to the tune of several whatsapp messages a week. I asked him to stop to no avail. So today I said that people who had relatives arrested by the dictatorship who support Bolsonaro must have some sort of psychological disorder. This uncle had a brother arrested, tortured, and indirectly killed by the dictatorship (the conditions he was subjected to led to health issues that led to his death a few years after he was released), an uncle (my great uncle) who was exiled, and another brother who was in constant threat of being arrested (my father) and had his phones tapped. So he first said some nonsense about Venezuela being the real dictatorship, and then sent me so many insults my cousins had to take away his phone from him. joepinetree has issued a correction as of 08:00 on Oct 15, 2018 |
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Oct 15, 2018 05:27
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Plutonis posted:Seeing a Brazilian tourist gay couple in NYC last week that said that they were not voting for PT on the second round made me realize how incredibly effective the media onslaught was. Or how people put class prejudice above self-preservation. But that has always sort of been the case in Brazil. The "socially liberal fiscal conservative professionals" that in the US have become the core of the democratic party can just be reactionaries in Brazil because they know that there's always a way for rich Brazilians to avoid conservative laws. It's the same reason why there very little push towards legalizing abortion in Brazil. For upper class women, abortion has always been de facto legal. Just like same sex couples have always been able to find a way to legally fulfill all the things that marriage would. Just like Brazil is one of the most violent places on earth for poor trans women, while at the same time being very accepting of trans celebrities (Roberta Close was the cover of Playboy almost 30 years ago).
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Oct 16, 2018 18:57
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They may have lost the leash of the beast they created this election, but their power is still visible in the way they created it. Bolsonaro would be a no one without CQC, the impeachment was heavily promoted by all media platforms ("there's a protest on day X, here's where you park, here's where you submit your photos to us"), and the Brazilian version of the altright was given ample platform when the target was the PT. Olavo de Carvalho is an astrologist who was given a national platform because he would say the craziest poo poo about PT, Rodrigo Constantino was an Orkut shitposter with 0 qualities who went from making the "Economia Brasileira" community completely unreadable to the pages of Veja. So the media thought that they could boost PSDB by destroying the PT, and then it got away from them. Because it's hard to paint the picture of Bolsonaro as an extremist after you've spent 14 years painting the PT as communists about to turn Brazil into Venezuela. And then there's an effect similar to Trump, in that he got endless amounts of free coverage just by saying outrageous poo poo.
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Oct 17, 2018 16:17
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A lot of it goes back to what I said in terms of the media losing control of their monster. When Gilberto Gil was culture minister he wanted the creation of a national plan for culture, which would have reallocated spending from programs like the Lei Rouanet and other cultural incentives in places that are farther away from the capitals, and towards more amateur artists. This would have hurt globo directly, because not only did globo get a lot of money for the movie division this way, but a lot of globo artists would be involved in expensive plays that only ran a couple of times a week to accommodate their participation in novelas. So they went all out in denouncing the communist plan to subsidize cultural events outside of the southeast and comparing their plan to the Centro Popular de Cultura that communists supported in the 60s. Sothe changes that Gilberto Gil wanted to implement went nowhere, but then Lei Rouanet and so on all became symbols of the "communist plot" headed by PT.
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Oct 18, 2018 15:39
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The latest The Dig podcast has an excellent discussion of the current Brazilian moment.
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Oct 21, 2018 07:17
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Not only is a huge chunk of Brazilians living abroad extremely reactionary, even the namely "liberal" ones are generally bad. I've mentioned it this several times in the Latin American thread in D&D, but there's this subset of Brazilians who in the US root for democrats, get emotional talking about Obama, post quotes of MLK who, when it comes to Brazilian politics, are extremely reactionary. It's the "Manhattan Connection" crowd. The epitome of that are journalists like Lucia Guimaraes, who will tweet about how horrendous the police brutality in the US is, while at the same time frequently defending Alckmin and the Sao Paulo police.
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Oct 26, 2018 03:40
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The Bolsonaro bots are out in such numbers that they are commenting on any news that includes the mention to bolso (which is a Bolsonaro nickname and also the word for pocket) and bolovo (a "egg cake"): https://jornalggn.com.br/noticia/folha-publica-materias-com-bolovo-e-bolso-e-expoe-os-robos-de-bolsonaro-na-internet
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Oct 26, 2018 23:13
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Class and gender explain a lot of it. Haddad wins easily among those who make a minimum wage or less, and ties among women. What is happening is that a bunch of center and center right people are ok with fascism as long as they dont have to pay their maids more and their kids have an easier time getting into a federal university.
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Oct 28, 2018 20:51
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FactsAreUseless posted:Brazil I don't know much about you, but I'll miss you. Don't worry. If he does what he wants on the Amazon, rest of the world won't be far behind.
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Oct 28, 2018 23:47
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THS posted:what is the state of the brazilian left outside the workers party The only party with any representation outside of PT is PSOL, which has about 1/5 the number of members in congress and no governors and like 2 mayors. It has virtually no presence in the major labor unions and suffers from many of the same problems of DSA in the US (outside of maybe Rio, it has a mostly middle class, mostly white, mostly urban membership). I am uncertain about what is going to happen with it. On one hand, it might grow if PT members decide to leave PT given the anti-PT sentiment. On the other, it might be completely overshadowed by the PT as PT becomes the main opposition party to Bolsonaro. It's also a somewhat sad history. PSOL had a chance to make real opposition from the left to PT when PT was in power, but Heloisa Helena was their main figure, and she was a pro-life rear end in a top hat who ran a campaign that focused solely on PT's corruption and who would frequently say things like "we don't need new taxes" when the PT tried to make the tax code slightly more progressive. When the base tried to revolt against her she pulled a bunch of shady poo poo and made the party lose a lot of credibility.
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Oct 29, 2018 01:49
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red sampson posted:i feel bad for you guys, but now youre just like america, so you got that going for you, Nah. If anyone proposed a Republican tax code in Brazil, they'd be branded a communist immediately. In Brazil, overall taxes are regressive, the highest bracket on income taxes is ~27% and there is no joepinetree has issued a correction as of 02:14 on Oct 29, 2018 |
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Oct 29, 2018 01:53
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babypolis posted:wait really??? what the gently caress Actually, I hosed up in the translation. There are capital gains taxes for foreigners, and capital gains are taxed as regular income for locals. Dividends aren't taxed. joepinetree has issued a correction as of 02:19 on Oct 29, 2018 |
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Oct 29, 2018 02:13
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People sharing this image: Hopefully this election leads to a similar surge in activism as it did in the US.
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Oct 29, 2018 02:43
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The funny thing about the "no pornography on TV" is that there is substantially less nudity on TV now than in the past. In the 80s there was a TV show that was on at like 10 pm called cocktail that was a game show that included things like "which girl has a mark on her nipples" and where the loser had to do a striptease. Also, Bolsonaro folks don't like the Statute of Children and Adolescents (passed in 1990) because it protects minors from prosecution, but it is also the law that made most underage nudity and pornography illegal. There are a number of Brazilian movies that included nudity and/or sex scenes with minors prior to that, and it wasn't uncommon to have 14 or 15 year olds on the cover of playboy
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Oct 29, 2018 04:36
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Metal Cat posted:Check this out: Nah, PT will continue to be the largest party in Brazil. Unions and social movements won't simply change parties. PT still controls the largest block in congress (though will likely fall to 2nd after all the opportunists shift to PSL) and the highest number of governors in the country. Haddad went from being nobody to being a runner up who made it to the second round in a month on the basis of party loyalty alone. PT will also likely be the main opposition party to Bolsonaro. I am not saying that PT will win in 2022, but unless Bolsonaro's presidency is hugely successful on the economy and crime I am pretty certain that the runoff in 2022 will be Bolsonaro and whoever PT chooses.
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Oct 29, 2018 13:58
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Absurd Alhazred posted:How convinced are you that there will actually be an election in 2022? Or that there will be unjailed PT members by then? I don't think there will be a coup over the next 4 years. Shutting down congress or cancelling elections is a bridge too far. In terms of authoritarianism the most likely outcome is a green light for police forces to just mow down the poor and social movements.
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Oct 29, 2018 14:12
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To elaborate on it a bit more: the sort of business elite that governments like Bolsonaro depend on need a little bit of plausible deniability in order to support a right win strong man. Most countries aren't Saudi Arabia, where the ruler has trillions to make everyone look the other way. There's a reason why even Sisi in Egypt still runs elections. They are sham elections, just like the elections in Honduras were sham elections, but they give companies plausible deniability to keep investing in the place. So CBC and the WSJ can keep talking about investment opportunities and centrist politicians don't have to be asked about their support/silence over it. So there will be elections, and even if a ton of PT members are in jail by then the party is popular enough to get the 20 or 25% necessary to make it to a run off if Bolsonaro isn't popular enough to win outright.
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Oct 29, 2018 14:36
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Barry Convex posted:is there a good overview of Car Wash from a left perspective? links appreciated I don't think there's a single source that captures all of it. The Intercept's coverage of it is pretty extensive and generally good. For example, on Lula's conviction: https://theintercept.com/2018/01/24/lula-brazil-corruption-conviction-car-wash/ Also, anything by Alfredo Saad-Filho, either as a guest on the Dig podcast, or for jacobin/etc. is pretty good.
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Oct 29, 2018 16:33
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Typo posted:is the Brazilian presidency as powerless/powerful (depending on ur view) as the US one in making domestic policy I've written about it before shortly before the Dilma impeachment, so let me just quote myself: joepinetree posted:The presidency is much weaker than it used to be, but it is still pretty powerful. But the thing is that what happens is that there is a huge amount of party fractionalization in Brazil. No party holds more than 15% of congress. Since congress can essentially stop the presidency (through the mess of how provisional decrees work), what happens is that there is this weird presidential coalition system. Other than Dilma in the last few months, Brazil has never had a president with a nominal minority in congress (like Obama in the US does). What happens is that all presidents essentially give away some cabinet positions in exchange for support in congress. So the executive has a lot of power, but a lot of that power is given to allies in congress in the form of head of ministry positions. To expand on it a little more: the executive has a lot of power in terms of appointing people to executive positions, probably even more than in the US. But in terms of the judiciary, the executive has a lot less power in terms of appointing judges. So there's less partisan court packing. Most judges tend to be selected through public entrance exams that are highly competitive and frequently require months of full time study, making the Brazilian judiciary very independent of the executive, and also highly elitist. joepinetree has issued a correction as of 17:36 on Oct 29, 2018 |
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Oct 29, 2018 17:15
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Meritocracy, says the guy who has built an entire political career on name recognition from is father alone.Magrov posted:He probably means grammaticists. Don't if this is a joke that flew over my head, but the reference is to Gramsci and the "cultural marxists" that indoctrinate students. joepinetree has issued a correction as of 20:21 on Oct 29, 2018 |
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Oct 29, 2018 20:09
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Most importantly, he shattered the image of Obama and of a lot of the democratic establishment as the good guys by releasing the Snowden files. Which, in turn, has led people to simply fabricate whole cloth a bunch of things about him. A few pages in the Russia thread will get you a bunch of easily disprovable lies about him. The reality is that he is much more in line with the international left, especially the Latin American left (as exemplified by his husband), which in turn believes that American imperialism is pretty close to the number 1 global problem. If you are interested in some entertainment, about a year ago the Pod Save America guys launched Pod Saved the World, and in one episode Tommy Vietor had Ben Rhodes on and they essentially accused Greenwald of being a Russian agent, and then Greenwald asked and got invited into the show and essentially destroyed Vietor.
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Oct 29, 2018 22:28
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GreyjoyBastard posted:his fairly reasonable "America is bad" and "distrust anything that seems to support the American agenda" priors have in the fairly recent past led him to be vocally and imo excessively skeptical re: Assad use of chemical weapons, Russian fuckery in 2016, that sort of thing Well, there's also the fact that Greenwald had nothing to do with the Reality Winner gently caress up, as he didn't write, edit, or participate in it in any way other than the reason Winner emailed the intercept (from her work computer) was because of Greenwald' skepticism. Gumball Gumption posted:Greenwald sometimes confuses anti-american for anti-imperialist but overall he's done some good poo poo. What happens more frequently is that even the American left is pretty bad on imperialism overall and tends to get uncomfortable with Greenwald and accuse him of that. On the US and imperialism Greenwald has pretty much very conventional views that are common to the international left. succ posted:Can anyone list some organized leftist groups in Brazil? Preferably militant. PSOL is closely associated with DSA and is the most leftwing party with congressional representation in Brazil. But PT is pretty much the dominant force in the Brazilian left. Most of the large unions, like CUT (Central Unica dos Trabalhadores) and social movements like MST (landless peasant movement) and MTST (homeless movement) are either linked to PT or pretty evenly divided between PT and PSOL. In terms of English sources on the Brazilian left, Wendi Muse and the Left POCket podcast is a good complement to Greenwald.
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Oct 30, 2018 00:10
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