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Cardiac
Aug 28, 2012

Karl Barks posted:

Everyone is focused on the democrats but the left party possibly doubling their vote seems like a big deal.

nah, they have been there before when Fis party leader was party leader for V ( who later got kicked from V for tax fraud).
the major thing this election is the collapse of the social Democratic Party, which given the extremely successful history of S is a huge thing.

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Cardiac
Aug 28, 2012

it all depends how you count.
Löfven is hosed as prime minister since he will be voted out in one week due to having the majority of the parliament against him.
as for the second important thing, the budget, m+kd can put forth a budget and if c+l abstains and sd votes on it despite getting no concessions, it will pass.
pretending the one vote the redgreen have ahead of Alliansen is a workable factor with sd having 60 is naive, since it basically assumes Alliansen will not be an opposition. which have already been tried last period and Alliansen have explicitly said it won’t happen again.
so a more workable coalition is needed.

and here is the issue.
c+l won’t tolerate being dependent on V (since they consider v about as bad as SD). their preferred politics are also hosed in a coalition with S.
s+v+mp is dependent on Alliansen not putting forth their own budget since it opens for fuckery by sd.
m+kd can form a coalition by having sd as well as l+c abstaining from the vote of confidence. they can also get a budget through by bribing c+l and sd, where the former in this way can say they don’t actively get support from sd.
and finally, the biggest hurdle, s will never support a coalition they don’t lead.

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