Weatherdammerung 2023: this has nothing to do with climate change. it's called weather

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > C-SPAM > Weatherdammerung 2023: this has nothing to do with climate change. it's called weather

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SirPablo: May 1, 2004; Pillbug

I'm kind of meh on defined seasons. It is good for awareness but always results in a lot of stupid semantics. Just like naming winter storms - gently caress off with that poo poo.

# ¿ Feb 28, 2021 20:54

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# ¿ May 14, 2024 18:23

SirPablo: May 1, 2004; Pillbug

PostNouveau posted:

They had to start naming winter storms after they ran out of icepocalypse/snowmageddon nicknames

It was an still entirely is driven by The Weather Channel. I'm sure you can guess their motive.

# ¿ Mar 1, 2021 07:52

SirPablo: May 1, 2004; Pillbug

Zeno-25 posted:

I want some of whatever you're smoking
https://twitter.com/WasatchSnow/status/1368928202702266375

One run, one model...

From calibrated ensemble data, there is a ~50% chance of 12"+ of snow in Denver. The range is huge though, with the IQR being 1 to 18" right now. As they say, "continue to monitor the forecast for updates".

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# ¿ Mar 9, 2021 07:24

SirPablo: May 1, 2004; Pillbug

gently caress You And Diebold posted:

https://twitter.com/JackSillin/status/1372957704138981378

Mixed feelings/thoughts on this. Poster certainly has a point. Those are also lower income/wealth areas, not just predominantly black. Many other areas also equally underserved that have different demographics. Radars are expensive, so makes sense to put them places where you have more people/higher density to get more for the funds. Where those radars were placed was decided over three decades ago.

There have been efforts/research in the past to have small "gap filling" radars, but that's infrastructure spending and we know how that's gone in America the past half century.

Edit: this...

https://twitter.com/SDBrownWX/status/1372979302929682445?s=20

SirPablo has issued a correction as of 22:18 on Mar 20, 2021

# ¿ Mar 20, 2021 22:06

SirPablo: May 1, 2004; Pillbug

I'm an expert AMA.

# ¿ Mar 23, 2021 01:18

SirPablo: May 1, 2004; Pillbug

spacemang_spliff posted:

Are the rumors about my local weather person true?

Worse.

# ¿ Mar 23, 2021 02:32

SirPablo: May 1, 2004; Pillbug

Satellites are passive and observe radiation emitted by clouds. They only see the top, can't see within clouds.

Radars are active, transmitting pulses of energy that penetrate clouds. That energy gives information that allows you to infer the size/amount of precipitation and measure radial velocity. Radars also scan progressively higher into the clouds/storms, giving a sense of 3D structure.

Radar and satellite compliment each other and are both critical.

# ¿ Mar 23, 2021 02:36

SirPablo: May 1, 2004; Pillbug

I don't care so much about one model upgrade. Ensemble data is what should be looked at. (And eventually the plan is for all NCEP models to meld into one unified ensemble system both for short and long range forecasting.)

# ¿ Mar 25, 2021 14:57

SirPablo: May 1, 2004; Pillbug

Baseball size hail just means free batting practice.

# ¿ May 1, 2021 16:01

SirPablo: May 1, 2004; Pillbug

Here's an idea - don't go outside.

# ¿ May 2, 2021 00:49

SirPablo: May 1, 2004; Pillbug

Chasers suck

# ¿ May 4, 2021 06:35

SirPablo: May 1, 2004; Pillbug

Skippy McPants posted:

It's not even June.

Gonna be a bad year.

Edit: Oh dang, I guess this one is arson? lovely.

80-90% of wildfires are human caused. The only way nature gets them going is lightning.

# ¿ May 16, 2021 15:32

SirPablo: May 1, 2004; Pillbug

Platystemon posted:

Unless…

YOU GOT ME

That's pretty rare though. Probably more fire starts now from gender reveals than volcanoes during the past million years.

# ¿ May 16, 2021 16:00

SirPablo: May 1, 2004; Pillbug

the bitcoin of weed posted:

does "human caused" in California include lovely unmaintained utilities sparking in high winds and starting mystery fires, because that seems to happen a lot

Unless utility poles grow naturally, then yes.

# ¿ May 16, 2021 17:01

SirPablo: May 1, 2004; Pillbug

Tornadoes? In eastern Colorado?

# ¿ May 23, 2021 02:03

SirPablo: May 1, 2004; Pillbug

Is this the ball sweat thread?

# ¿ Jun 10, 2021 21:22

SirPablo: May 1, 2004; Pillbug

Too hot to gently caress

# ¿ Jun 15, 2021 22:32

SirPablo: May 1, 2004; Pillbug

The avatars, much like earth, are loving with us.

# ¿ Jun 17, 2021 18:21

SirPablo: May 1, 2004; Pillbug

Yea sounds not good...

https://twitter.com/majorajay/status/1406839124615696388?s=20

Watching the loop of this reminds me of Joplin, MO in that strong tornado developed in such little time.

https://twitter.com/BradyBGWX/status/1406831866649448448?s=20

# ¿ Jun 21, 2021 06:37

SirPablo: May 1, 2004; Pillbug

Luneshot posted:

...has the EAS ever been activated for excessive heat? I can certainly imagine it being activated for an event like that.

It doesn't look like it's on the list of the approved NWS codes.

Nope

# ¿ Jun 21, 2021 23:45

SirPablo: May 1, 2004; Pillbug

The state of Jefferson welcomes all.

# ¿ Jun 22, 2021 06:42

SirPablo: May 1, 2004; Pillbug

Luneshot posted:

Also, apparently some people don’t trust the 06z or 18z runs?

That's old dumb thinking. People used to think that cause there was no new weather balloon data, the "off" runs were less accurate. To an extent, that was true decades ago. Now the difference is negligible. There is so much additional data that goes into models that the accuracy of the latest run vs the previous one is much larger than any difference between 00/12 and 06/18.

https://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/longterm/

Smarter meteorologists use ensemble data and don't rely on a single deterministic run. Ensembles extend the forecast accuracy by 1-2 days.

# ¿ Jun 22, 2021 11:55

SirPablo: May 1, 2004; Pillbug

The GFS and EPS ensemble mean of 850 mb temp anomalies is +15C in just five days. This isn't an issue with one model spitting out bad data. Normal for late June around the PacNW is 20-25C, so forecast is say 35C at 850. That mixes down to a surface temp of roughly 115-120F. That's right inline with the forecast inland temps (like Spokane). Of course it'll be cooler on the coast but all-time records definitely possible.

Even the NWS Spokane office is saying this is a Big Deal.

https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/total_forecast/getprod.php?new&prod=XXXAFDOTX&wfo=otx

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# ¿ Jun 22, 2021 12:11

SirPablo: May 1, 2004; Pillbug

Tropical cyclone circulations impacting the West are not common, but they have happened. The remnant moisture intrusion happens yearly and typically triggers flood-inducing thunderstorms.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Norbert_(2014)

# ¿ Jun 23, 2021 20:03

SirPablo: May 1, 2004; Pillbug

Heat index is bullshit

# ¿ Jun 24, 2021 20:27

SirPablo: May 1, 2004; Pillbug

Look at Yuma, AZ or El Centro, CA.

# ¿ Jun 24, 2021 20:58

SirPablo: May 1, 2004; Pillbug

spacemang_spliff posted:

lol here in KC we're going to get our yearly 25 year storm tonight with 3-5 inches of rain.

not sure why it's called a 25 year storm since they happen more than once a year now but hey I don't make the rules, I just go outside and shut my house off from the sewer system because when we get more than 3 inches of rain the storm sewer system can't handle it and all that water goes into the city septic sewer system. I hear that's not supposed to happen but again, I don't make the rules.

It's a misnomer. A "hundred year" storm really one in a hundred, which is just the reciprocal of a 1% chance of happening any given year. So yes, you can have multiple 1% events happen in sequential years or even in the same year, especially with a non-stationary climate!

# ¿ Jun 25, 2021 02:01

SirPablo: May 1, 2004; Pillbug

spacemang_spliff posted:

right that makes sense but like a 3-5" rain is a lot more likely than 4% here

I mean maybe over the last century and a half it's accurate but they should probably readjust some poo poo

https://hdsc.nws.noaa.gov/hdsc/pfds/pfds_map_cont.html

# ¿ Jun 25, 2021 04:24

SirPablo: May 1, 2004; Pillbug

I wonder how often Seattle has been warmer than Phoenix, especially outside of winter.

# ¿ Jun 26, 2021 00:56

SirPablo: May 1, 2004; Pillbug

Is this due to climate change?

# ¿ Jun 26, 2021 05:41

SirPablo: May 1, 2004; Pillbug

OK baizuo posted:

Oddly it's gonna be like 70-80 for a week here in Denver, I'm sure we'll be on the other side of things soon enough

Yea interesting dipole across NA.

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# ¿ Jun 26, 2021 05:55

SirPablo: May 1, 2004; Pillbug

Seattle is an insult to god and should not exist!

# ¿ Jun 26, 2021 06:26

SirPablo: May 1, 2004; Pillbug

Homocow posted:

no this is just an anomaly like early and protracted hurricane seasons, prolific wildfires, mega droughts, mega floods, toxic algae blooms, drastic loss of biodiversity, melting glaciers, etc

it's all normal, get back to work

Attribution is really difficult to do right. But in another sense, all weather happens within a changing climate so it's all influenced by climate change.

# ¿ Jun 26, 2021 14:57

SirPablo: May 1, 2004; Pillbug

Seattle is already within spitting distance of their all-time high of 103F and the hottest day isn't even until Monday. That record is going to get crushed.

https://twitter.com/NWSSeattle/status/1408901455533068290?s=20

https://twitter.com/NWSSeattle/status/1408910073343012864?s=20

# ¿ Jun 26, 2021 23:20

SirPablo: May 1, 2004; Pillbug

110F is definitely in play for Seattle on Monday. Today is over performing.

# ¿ Jun 27, 2021 00:07

SirPablo: May 1, 2004; Pillbug

There's a 30% chance of 110F+ in Seattle Monday (based on current forecast, and today over performed).

Seattle has only been warmer than Phoenix three times in the summer months (Jun-Aug). Phoenix forecast high on Monday is 108F.

code:

            PHX  SEA
1967-06-18   81   82
1990-08-14   78   81
1998-07-22   89   90

# ¿ Jun 27, 2021 00:19

SirPablo: May 1, 2004; Pillbug

Raine posted:

if your piss is yellow and not clear, you aren't drinking enough water

drink more piss

# ¿ Jun 27, 2021 00:52

SirPablo: May 1, 2004; Pillbug

Your water should look like piss and your piss look like water. Why is this so hard.

# ¿ Jun 27, 2021 01:03

SirPablo: May 1, 2004; Pillbug

Eventually everywhere will be like Phoenix.

# ¿ Jun 27, 2021 07:20

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# ¿ May 14, 2024 18:23

SirPablo: May 1, 2004; Pillbug

That's raw though, there's usually a systematic bias in weather model surface outputs. Latest calibrated data for Monday has a median of 109F with an IQR 104-111, max range is 93 (lol) to 114 (also lol).

# ¿ Jun 27, 2021 17:33

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > C-SPAM > Weatherdammerung 2023: this has nothing to do with climate change. it's called weather

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