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facialimpediment
Feb 11, 2005

as the world turns
Y'all should be following Darth https://twitter.com/darth

No idea who it is, but Darth posts rapid-fire Photoshops of trump and others, alongside dogs and commentary on french fries. Gets crazy when actual journalists and Darth go back-and-forth on something, it's like an actually funny internet leak.

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facialimpediment
Feb 11, 2005

as the world turns
Awwwwwwwww yeah

https://twitter.com/willsommer/status/1057985365691301888?s=19

That's the stuff right there. It already got cancelled because "the woman" got "scared" and "left DC."

facialimpediment
Feb 11, 2005

as the world turns
This moron, holy loving poo poo

https://twitter.com/GossiTheDog/status/1058286750378967040?s=19

facialimpediment
Feb 11, 2005

as the world turns

Immanentized posted:

That's it. Im convinced were in some sandbox environment simulation.

Devs? DEVS! Reset the seed.

https://twitter.com/darth/status/1058394807263875073?s=19

It's Darth, so check the tie and hands.

facialimpediment
Feb 11, 2005

as the world turns
Oops.

https://twitter.com/steveholland1/status/1058425761386979329?s=19

facialimpediment
Feb 11, 2005

as the world turns
There was a shooting yesterday in Tallahassee at a yoga studio, two women dead. Uneventful in the curren- oh gently caress, Incels again.

https://twitter.com/davidmackau/status/1058803529681375233

facialimpediment
Feb 11, 2005

as the world turns
Well, someone just quit the Washington Examiner!

https://twitter.com/yashar/status/1059414212328415233?s=19

facialimpediment
Feb 11, 2005

as the world turns

Vasudus posted:

I don't think it's possible for any sort of tomfoolery to prevent the house from flipping. I can 100% see suppression and other shenanigans preventing a seat flip here or there, or maybe even a whole state. But not everywhere. And if what's happened so far with early voting is even remotely true of tomorrow, there's nothing that can stop the wave.

edit: the Senate is a different story. I'm not expecting that to flip but it would be nice.

Most prognosticators are putting the House D-gain in the neighborhood of 30-40 when they need 23. The polling data basically says that you shouldn't be shocked if the Democrats only get 19, or if they get like 50.

The reliability of the polling data is really tough, because it badly missed in Virginia (expected to be a toss-up, Democrat won by 6), but was just about right in Alabama (toss-up, Democrat won by 1.7) and Georgia (same, Republican by 4%). Could be a squeaker, could be a democratic fuckup, could be a blue tsunami. The squeaker/wave is more likely, but people are bad at probabilities.

facialimpediment
Feb 11, 2005

as the world turns

Vasudus posted:

Like legit there has to be *something* new invented to accurately poll people otherwise in maybe a decade polls will just straight up go extinct, rather than just be increasingly inaccurate.

Right now, the main obstacle to public polling is cost. The NYT/Sienna polls are the new gold standard of running polling - pulling a sample directly from the voter file of the target district/state and calling them. That's expensive as all gently caress, since you have to staff a call center, repeatedly call the same number in hopes of getting the person, then figure out sample weighting for the people you absolutely can't contact. The method generally beats Random Digit Dialing, but IIRC some of that is banned by state laws.

That's why there's been a flood of online-pollsters because online polls are cheap as hell, but still good-ish enough to be accurate. If a news organization wants to run a poll for news consumption value, the onliners are the way to go.

Proud Christian Mom posted:

Everyone's models assume you're a prior voter which could lead to some amazing results if non-voter turnout is really as high as it seems

This has been the #1 problem for pollsters: who votes? Generally, a "likely voter" responds something like an 8-10 on a "How sure are you to vote this election?" question, but people lie like crazy about that question. Some 10s don't end up voting, but get weighed heavy in the sample, while some 5-6s are barely counted, but still vote!

The general movement of society from landlines to cell phones have really hosed up pollsters.

facialimpediment
Feb 11, 2005

as the world turns
This kids are alright

https://twitter.com/mckaycoppins/status/1059835249776058368?s=19

NO WAIT gently caress THOSE DEMOCRACY-HATING SHITTERS

facialimpediment
Feb 11, 2005

as the world turns

FAUXTON posted:

The voting precinct i've been attending since 2012 and have never had to wait at had a 15 minute line in 38 degree weather and they'd already run out of stickers and the line was growing behind us, at 6PM.

Holy poo poo.

The story of this midterm is sky-high turnout. What that overall means for the vote totals/splits is still to be determined.

facialimpediment
Feb 11, 2005

as the world turns

Vasudus posted:

Just lmao at watching live predictions. That poo poo is going to fluctuate like crazy when safe districts pop up.

Nathaniel Rakich of 538:

quote:

You may have noticed that our real-time forecast has moved toward Republicans in the House. It’s being too aggressive, in my opinion. The model sees that a bunch of “likely Republican” districts (particularly in Florida) are now 100 percent likely to go red. But there hasn’t been the chance for Democrats to clinch many equivalent likely Democratic districts.

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1059982721127075840

facialimpediment
Feb 11, 2005

as the world turns
loving FLORIDA I SWEAR TO CHRIST

https://twitter.com/DanNBC6/status/1060005243415609344

Edit: This is the main Democratic stronghold that will likely kick the Florida races to within-recount(ish) margins.

facialimpediment
Feb 11, 2005

as the world turns
WOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO

https://twitter.com/KFILE/status/1060018809413734400

So Florida is still Florida, Democratic Senators got wiped out as semi-expected (except Manchin), and there are a ton of good-news stories.

Sure beats earlier today when the 538 Now-cast went to like 40% chance of a Democratic House.

gently caress Florida.

facialimpediment
Feb 11, 2005

as the world turns
Yo.

Something's happening.

I mean

I don't know where the outstanding vote is located

but these numbers are real

https://twitter.com/LauraLitvan/status/1060025964908945409

facialimpediment
Feb 11, 2005

as the world turns
GODDAMNIT

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1060033429226602497

facialimpediment
Feb 11, 2005

as the world turns
Hell yeah, Tester's gonna survive :toot:

https://twitter.com/frankthorp/status/1060210566562807808?s=19

https://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/montana-senate

facialimpediment
Feb 11, 2005

as the world turns
These motherfuckers.

https://twitter.com/JoshNBCNews/status/1060211654036725762?s=19

I hope when the subpoenas blot out the sun, Pentagon brass emails come out about how bullshit this all was.

Edit: GAHAHAHAH

https://twitter.com/ddale8/status/1060217447414988802?s=19

facialimpediment fucked around with this message at 18:09 on Nov 7, 2018

facialimpediment
Feb 11, 2005

as the world turns
Remember Jon Ossoff and the GA-6 debacle?

Looks like Democrats just needed a woman to kick it over the finish line. 50.5 to 49.5.

https://twitter.com/UpshotNYT/status/1060245263351050241?s=19

facialimpediment
Feb 11, 2005

as the world turns
In case you're wondering why the resignation letter

https://twitter.com/jaketapper/status/1060259661696454658?s=19

sounds weird:

https://twitter.com/steve_vladeck/status/1060257574824693762?s=19

facialimpediment
Feb 11, 2005

as the world turns
Rosenstein is going to the White House for a previously-scheduled meeting. It's a nothingburger.

Unless it isn't.

facialimpediment
Feb 11, 2005

as the world turns

FrozenVent posted:

Just look at MD3. Interrupted districts should be a loving crime.

MD-3 isn't interrupted! The current, stupid standard is that the districts have to be connected, like they can be drawn without lifting your pencil.

If you squint REALLY HARD, you'll see the connections!

Both parties gerrymander the gently caress out of everything, it's just that our current gerrymandered maps are a consequence of Republicans in control of most poo poo around the 2010 timeframe.

facialimpediment
Feb 11, 2005

as the world turns

Eej posted:

it's the dumbest poo poo I've seen this year but we still have two months to go

Didn't take long for this to happen overnight in California - https://twitter.com/jaketapper/status/1060493426830032896?s=19

facialimpediment
Feb 11, 2005

as the world turns
CAN WE PLEASE JUST HAVE A GOOD THING EVERY NOW AND THEN

JUST ONE GOOD THING

IT'S NOT TOO MUCH TO ASK

https://twitter.com/chrisgeidner/status/1060533995195244544?s=19

facialimpediment
Feb 11, 2005

as the world turns

This needs to be phrased properly, with data.

loving Florida is being loving Florida again, gently caress.

https://twitter.com/SteveKornacki/status/1060611294183804928?s=19

There was a massive Senate undervote of around 26K in Broward County, Democratic territory, for no goddamn reason.

loving Florida.

facialimpediment
Feb 11, 2005

as the world turns

Nephzinho posted:

What possible reason is there for that, to just walk around with a boner all month? Pretty sure that is just straight up not healthy.

precious bodily fluids

facialimpediment
Feb 11, 2005

as the world turns
ARE YOU loving KIDDING ME FLORIDA

https://twitter.com/MarcACaputo/status/1060654559612289024?s=19

loving Florida.

facialimpediment
Feb 11, 2005

as the world turns

Hremsfeld posted:

Oh, that's where they went.

There are currently two major theories, both plausible, that explain the Broward County weird numbers.

1) Machine-reading error (being advanced by the Democratic Superlawyer on Nelson's side)

2) FLORIDA VOTERS DO NOT HAVE EYES

https://twitter.com/NewsbySmiley/status/1060571314749128704

In one particular district, FL-24, there was no House race, and Florida law may say that uncontested races don't appear on the ballot anywhere. That means that only the Senate race's choice was in the bottom-left and Florida voters forgot to look down there.

:psyduck:

facialimpediment
Feb 11, 2005

as the world turns

psydude posted:

2000 TBT y'all.

https://twitter.com/mkraju/status/1060709286123319296

It's lit. Suckpreme Court gonna end up deciding this one :argh:

facialimpediment
Feb 11, 2005

as the world turns
gently caress, this would be so funny.

https://twitter.com/StevenTDennis/status/1060740387109830656

Donnie and co's only bullshit argument was about how good they did in the Senate. Man, they'd be so mad.

facialimpediment
Feb 11, 2005

as the world turns

Best Friends posted:

Based on Trump melting down today over a couple senate seats, including calling for a new election in Arizona, I am 100% sure he's going to call for a coup in 2020. The only question is if, like most of the insane poo poo he says, people around him just pretend they didn't hear it.

All but the Macron tweet were Trump Tweets taken directly from Fox News while he was watching it on the plane. This thread has it:

https://twitter.com/MattGertz/status/1060967621623988224

He's mad and needs his positive reinforcement.

facialimpediment
Feb 11, 2005

as the world turns
See your doctor if your erection lasts more than four hours.

https://twitter.com/steveholland1/status/1061207844706533376?s=19

https://twitter.com/DavidNakamura/status/1061200518570278912?s=19

facialimpediment
Feb 11, 2005

as the world turns
The Florida recount is official!

https://twitter.com/CNN/status/1061334247385022465

Everything gets machine counted again, then if a race stays within 0.25%, any undervotes/overvotes get hand-checked. Democrats are hoping that the machines are hosed up and not counting the votes in Broward right, Republicans are hoping that the ballot design is so hosed up that a bunch of Democrats didn't vote in the Senate race.

facialimpediment
Feb 11, 2005

as the world turns
I love how the machine vote count has an automatic LOL NOPE function

https://twitter.com/stevebousquet/status/1061370660885315584

facialimpediment
Feb 11, 2005

as the world turns

DoktorLoken posted:

Fox News hasn't tweeted since 8 November, that's weird as hell:

Fox News is currently protesting that Twitter isn't taking action about the people that doxxed Tucker Carlson. That's literally it, no other funny business.

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1061773342112247808?s=19

The Senate is now 52-47, plus/minus one seat depending on the Florida recount!

facialimpediment
Feb 11, 2005

as the world turns
Rain appears to have replaced stairs as the dumb thing that Trump is completely scared of for no reason.

https://twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/status/1062018849023889409?s=19

facialimpediment
Feb 11, 2005

as the world turns

CommieGIR posted:

Blood for the blood gods.

It's hilarious how every Serious Person throughout government continuously has to figure out ways of telling Trump to shut the gently caress up 1) not by name, 2) in nicer words

https://twitter.com/AmyEGardner/status/1062036927820587008

facialimpediment
Feb 11, 2005

as the world turns
PLEASEBETRUE
PLEASEBETRUE
PLEASEBETRUE
PLEASEBETRUE
PLEASEBETRUE
PLEASEBETRUE
PLEASEBETRUE
PLEASEBETRUE

https://twitter.com/KenDilanianNBC/status/1062099141944360960

facialimpediment
Feb 11, 2005

as the world turns
The best part about that is that McSally is likely about to get appointed for the McCain Senate seat, held temporarily by Jon Kyl. That's why McSally didn't ring the conspiracy gong when national Republicans and Trump wanted her to.

So the future future Senator just conceded to the future Senator.

Edit: CONCESSION SPEECH INCLUDES GOOD DOG https://twitter.com/MarthaMcSally/status/1062144676822577152

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facialimpediment
Feb 11, 2005

as the world turns

McNally posted:

Deleted, what did it say?

He hosed up the word cemetery.

Meanwhile, in Melania news:

https://twitter.com/awprokop/status/1062388517425295367?s=19

https://twitter.com/JesseRodriguez/status/1062390009179881478?s=19

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