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Mind_Taker posted:Which states that are currently gerrymandered to a laughable degree in the R direction are likely to be redrawn to a fair (or D-favorable) map in 2020 due to pickups in governorships/state houses last night? Ohio will likely gain a few seats to redistricting in 2020. An amendment thing passed last year that will have a bipartisan commission redraw the map. Which isn't as good as Democrats drawing them, but Democrats got slaughtered in Ohio last night so that wasn't even gonna happen. Anyways, the breakdown is 12 GOP districts to 4 Democratic districts with the current gerrymander. Democrats would probably gain at least 2, possibly 3 seats with a fair redistricting.
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Nov 7, 2018 15:59
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Fritz Coldcockin posted:We obviously convinced some of them, otherwise Sherrod Brown wouldn't have won in Ohio while Mike DeWine won the governorship. Well, that did require Sherrod Brown supporting an unpopular position (Trump's steel tariffs) AND the GOP running an absolutely terrible candidate.
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Nov 7, 2018 17:02
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evilweasel posted:I think looking at Brown and figuring out how he did what he did is the most important lesson of this election. Because not only did he cruise to re-election, it was never really in doubt. Yeah I think that the lesson that should be learned, especially for people in this thread, is that candidates in places like Ohio are gonna have some Blue Dog tendencies and should probably be tolerated. Tim Ryan gets poo poo in this thread every time his name pops up, but he is an absolutely perfect prototype for the kind of Democrat that wins in Ohio. I don't think he should be Speaker, or run for President (both of which he is thinking about), but drat.....he would've absolutely won the Governor's race last night if he ran. He and Sherrod Brown's politics are nearly identical these days.
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Nov 7, 2018 17:16
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evilweasel posted:The thing is, Brown isn't a senator anyone thinks of when they think of Blue Dogs. Why'd he win, when the Senators who you do think of as Blue Dogs mostly lost? Because he throws enough red meat to the chuds (like supporting the steel tariffs) without compromising any leftist positions (votes No on every Trump nominee). But Ohio is a weird loving state. North of I-70 is essentially Pennsylvania/Michigan (where Dems did really well), while south of I-70 is essentially Kentucky/Indiana (Dems.....not so much).
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Nov 7, 2018 17:22
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Nemo Somen posted:So I want to make sure I have the proper takes from last night. I don't think the bolded part is really true. https://twitter.com/HotlineJosh/status/1060083550270173184
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Nov 7, 2018 17:31
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Tir McDohl posted:We've gotta pretend that progressives can't win and that's that. I loving hate centrists. We don't have to pretend. We have results last night that show that it doesn't really win. At least not yet. Progressives won in some Safe D places (and rightfully so....there's no reason we should be running centrists in Safe D seats), but not a single progressive won a statewide race or a competitive race.
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Nov 7, 2018 17:43
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evilweasel posted:So I'm going to start playing with a 2020 electoral map. Dems won Iowa last night pretty comfortably if you add up the House votes. By around 49,000 votes over Republicans, and by around 10,000 votes if you give all the other parties' votes to the GOP.
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Nov 7, 2018 17:56
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my bony fealty posted:Comedy 2020 option: Kasich runs 3rd party/indie and takes Ohio from Trump leading to a D victort They do. He currently has a higher approval rating among Democrats than Republicans.
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Nov 7, 2018 18:14
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https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1060219626724954112
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Nov 7, 2018 18:20
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This is the long-term problem in Ohio.....the area where I live: https://twitter.com/kkondik/status/1060006994764066821 This area was one of the biggest swings toward the GOP 2 years ago and last night proved it wasn't just a one-off.
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Nov 7, 2018 18:31
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Sherrod Brown is not going to excite many people, but if you want a Democratic Presidential candidate that will probably easily win back Pennsylvania/Michigan/Wisconsin and probably Ohio.....cruising to an easy electoral college win, he's your guy. I just can't say I'd be hugely excited about another older white guy, but if it prevents a Trump second term it would be a net good thing. Also, that would essentially flip his Senate seat red for a good while. The Governor (DeWine) would appoint a replacement and there is no law requiring the replacement to be of the same party as the vacating Senator.
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Nov 7, 2018 18:46
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Seven Hundred Bee posted:is sinema predicted to win or not? Last I saw there were still like half a million votes to count in a county that she was winning. So....a pretty good sign.
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Nov 7, 2018 19:05
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evilweasel posted:this is neat It cannot be overstated how important Beto's close loss was last night. If anything, it creates a Democratic bench in Texas, which is going to be huge going forward as demographics continue to change. This is a huge reason why Ohio was such a shitshow last night. Years of gerrymandering and lovely leadership (as well as no particularly inspiring candidates on the ballot beyond Obama the last decade+) have left the Democratic bench of up-and-comers virtually non-existent. The Ohio Democratic party is essentially Sherrod Brown (65), Tim Ryan (45), Joyce Beatty (68), Marcy Kaptur (72), and Marcia Fudge (66). That's it.
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Nov 7, 2018 19:30
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pookel posted:Beto is the only white male politician I have ever seen black women get genuinely excited about on the internet. Sure, black women reliably vote for Democratic candidates no matter who the party runs, but usually that involves less enthusiasm and more pragmatism. Usually when some "woke" white politician steps into racial politics, he gets polite approval mixed with eyerolls, distrust, and critique of the white savior mentality (which is a completely fair assessment for most of them!). Not Beto though. He wrote a column for Essence magazine about the maternal mortality rate for black women! He got Beyonce plugging his campaign! He has worked hard to earn that trust. He has been called "white Obama" by quite a few people and I literally think a huge part of it is that he actually reminds people of Barack Obama in the way he looks and speaks.
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Nov 7, 2018 19:39
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Edmund Lava posted:Same, but I wonder if her time as a member of the Blue Dog caucus is going to help or hurt her when people start paying attention. I mean, we only need to win back 3 out of the 4 following states: Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania I don't think the Blue Dog Caucus is a huge turnoff to voters in those states.
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Nov 7, 2018 19:47
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WoodrowSkillson posted:We are not taking the Senate in 2020. That is simply not a valid avenue to plan for now. Can we win it by 2022? Maybe. 2024? sure. We are not shoving M4A down the throats of of the GOP led Senate. So unless you have a really good explanation on how a complete overhaul of the healthcare system will be passed, I do not think M4A is a valid disqualifier for President in 2020. If it can be sold to the American public and is popular, then a Republican Senate voting against it makes it a hell of a lot easier to win back the senate in 2022/2024. That's why you push for it. Get these ghouls on the record.
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Nov 7, 2018 20:35
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https://twitter.com/brianschatz/status/1060269208599023616
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Nov 7, 2018 21:36
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kidkissinger posted:Literally the last piece of news I heard was Trump's conference where he was saying he had no plans to fire anyone and now this happens Technically he didn't fire anyone.
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Nov 7, 2018 21:47
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Sulphagnist posted:I am going to be pleasantly surprised if there are actually going to be large-scale breaking-into-the-news protests if Mueller gets fired. I always feel like this is a #resistance myth that will never actually materialize because people just don't care that much. I mean, there are over 400,000 signed up to participate if it happens, in over 900 locations across the country. Whether those people show up or not, who knows, but the infrastructure/planning is there.  https://act.moveon.org/event/mueller-firing-rapid-response-events/search/
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Nov 7, 2018 21:50
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evilweasel posted:My feeling is that he's wanted to shut this investigation down since it began, he'd been stopped by Republicans worried about the midterms, and now that those are over he's as far from the next election as he can be so what better time to provoke a constitutional crisis? You've got two whole years to change the subject. Two whole years? What are you talking about, the midterms were, what, like 6 months ago?
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Nov 7, 2018 21:56
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The Glumslinger posted:The only person who could have given her a challenge lost to AOC in the primary. The only dude left who is likely to try is a straightup blue dog. This has been mentioned before in the old Trump thread but Tim Ryan isn’t a Blue Dog and has a much more progressive voting record in Congress than Beto O’Rourke. I don’t think he should be Speaker but I also don’t think people should just repeat outright lies like this. He’s shed all of his lovely positions years ago and gave back the only donation he ever received from the NRA. He’s virtually identical in politics to Sherrod Brown who most describe as a progressive populist.
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Nov 8, 2018 04:01
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Main Paineframe posted:Tim Ryan is a conservative shithead who sees where the wind is blowing and is drifting right as fast as possible What exactly makes him “conservative”? Or are you just being hyperbolic? I’m genuinely curious since, as mentioned, he is a founding member of the Medicare For All Caucus and years ago shed any Blue Dog positions. The only thing you can maybe argue is that he’s against free trade, which...so is Sherrod Brown and he’s one of the most progressive members of the senate.
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Nov 8, 2018 04:25
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Brony Car posted:Is the Arizona Senate race still realistically too close to call? I saw a 17,000 vote advantage for the Republican, but I don't know how current that is. There’s still hundreds of thousands of votes to count. Not sure if they’re provisional or absentee ballots or what but supposedly they’re from Dem areas so things look hopeful for Sinema.
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Nov 8, 2018 04:27
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In Georgia specifically they’re worried about provisional ballots not being counted. They’re asking anyone who cast a provisional ballot to call a hotline to be sure their vote is counted. I’ll let you guess what demographic probably had to cast a lot of provisional ballots and had their votes not counted for some “irregularities” or some bullshit. Stacey Abrams is absolutely doing the right thing by demanding a recount and keeping a light shining on the whole process so it’s harder for Kemp to pull some bullshit.
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Nov 8, 2018 05:12
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Ague Proof posted:The most corrupt mayor in America might get ousted. This is huge, as this race was rated Safe-Triple-D
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Nov 8, 2018 05:16
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In a super liberal hipster coffee shop and all the antifa members are saying how correct Jacob Wohl is.
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Nov 8, 2018 05:25
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Half a million votes outstanding from a blue county, but yeah gently caress it. McSally won.
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Nov 8, 2018 05:35
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MSNBC is saying a (wait for it) WHITE male. https://twitter.com/MSNBC/status/1060526495897137153
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Nov 8, 2018 14:44
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How on the nose that we're simultaneously talking about gun violence and Karen Handel conceding to Lucy McBath, whose son was murdered by a white man for playing rap music too loud.
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Nov 8, 2018 14:48
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Arist posted:Oh poo poo, I wasn't too aware of that race, McBath was the woman who ran after her son's murder as a representative of Black Lives Matter? That's great, good for her. Yeah, and there is a documentary about the shooting if anyone is interested. It's on HBO and called 3.5 Minutes, 10 Bullets. Pacra posted:Wait what? Seriously? What's the full story on this? I don't trust Google to provide me an accurate news report. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shooting_of_Jordan_Davis
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Nov 8, 2018 14:54
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Pacra posted:"She testified that Dunn told her, "I hate that thug music" before she left the car for the store, although Dunn claims he used the phrase "rap crap." You skipped my favorite part. "Dunn was given a sentence of life in prison without parole plus 90 years."
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Nov 8, 2018 15:16
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eke out posted:do y'all think fractured ribs means she's dead or something Have you never had an elderly loved one suffer some seemingly minor injury before? It tends to be a LOT tougher to get back to a healthy state at that age.
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Nov 8, 2018 15:19
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https://twitter.com/matthewkeyslive/status/1060450913842749441?s=21
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Nov 8, 2018 16:42
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TheScott2K posted:I agree with this. People seem to weirdly think Clinton "won" his whole scandal and impeachment saga because he kept his job, but it effectively rendered him a lame duck very early in his second term. The minute the word "Lewinsky" hit and Clinton committed the Democrats to defending the lie, any hope of the Democrats taking back either house in 1998 was gone, and it gave Bush a pretty sizable opening in 2000. Yeah, Newt hosed himself into the woods with the whole thing, but other than that I don't see the downside to the GOP for how it went down nor do I see any fruits of victory for the Dems. This is revisionist history. The 1998 election was an overwhelming success for the Democrats. The President's party ALWAYS loses seats in the midterms, ESPECIALLY in the second term. Democrats actually GAINED seats in the House and didn't lose any in the Senate. There was never any hope of winning back the House and Senate in 1998, it would have been historically unprecedented. And it was literally the 2nd time in modern history that the President's party didn't lose seats in the House in a midterm election. (The 3rd being in 2002)
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Nov 8, 2018 17:18
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axeil posted:Yeah I think in Florida with Gillum/Nelson basically getting the exact same vote share the message we should go with is "policy preference doesn't really matter in FL". I'm not sure if that's because everyone in FL is old, the GOP voters there are all CHUDs, Dems just vote Dem regardless of policy, Indies have no clue what they're doing or what. Since I like M4A and other leftist positions those are what I want to see next time in Florida, but a centrist can look at the same data and argue for centrist positions and we both will be right because policy appears not to matter in FL. Yeah I think Sherrod Brown should be looked at really hard in 2020, if not at the top of the ticket, then almost assuredly as a VP pick (preferably paired with a woman or POC). The fact is, Dems have been telling people of the Rust Belt that NAFTA is good and we're gonna retrain you to be a coder for 25 years. Sherrod Brown is anti-free trade and basically holds on to manufacturing jobs in Ohio like you can pry them from his cold dead hands. All that without sacrificing progressive principles. But that's not what the "smart Dems" and the party leadership that's in bed with Wall Street thinks. Because free trade has been good. For them. The fact is, like that tweet thread evilweasel posted said, Trump's populist anti-free trade message plays really well in PA-OH-MI-WI and whoever is the nominee is going to have to combat that, or get someone to combat that.
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Nov 8, 2018 18:14
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corn in the bible posted:Wait, I thought Handel lost though She did. 
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Nov 8, 2018 18:23
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Hashtag Babes for Trump
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Nov 8, 2018 19:21
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Lycus posted:But is Ohio looking at an EV reduction next decade? Unlikely. The population is still growing, albeit slowly.
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Nov 8, 2018 19:58
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Mind_Taker posted:https://twitter.com/marcorubio/status/1060609799719714817?s=21 "Tell us how many more you have yet to count of the things you haven't counted yet!" -a US Senator
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Nov 8, 2018 20:17
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Ague Proof posted:https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1060615070890086400 Holy poo poo, a 25,000 vote difference between Gillum and Nelson? That's super fishy. And in a county that's 70% Dem. That's 17,000 votes!
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Nov 8, 2018 20:40
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