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Which states that are currently gerrymandered to a laughable degree in the R direction are likely to be redrawn to a fair (or D-favorable) map in 2020 due to pickups in governorships/state houses last night?
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Nov 7, 2018 15:48
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I'm sure I'd be feeling a little bit differently if I lived anywhere other than Florida but man last night was a gut punch. Not nearly the level of panic and despair I felt 2 years ago when Trump won, but it still doesn't feel good to have skeletor win another loving squeaker and one of the best Democratic candidates in Florida history go down to a Nazi. My big fear in the long-term is the Senate and how Democrats can get control of it but I'm hoping that will resolve itself...somehow. Like I honestly think it is going to take admitting PR, DC, and Guam as states, but also like breaking California up into 3 states. But that requires the holding the Senate, which is now 100% a must-win in 2020.
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Nov 7, 2018 17:43
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Didn't see this posted. AZ could be awhile: https://twitter.com/FiveThirtyEight/status/1060243511742787585
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Nov 7, 2018 19:56
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Is there a Jon Ralston, but for Arizona instead of Nevada? I'd like to hear what type of early vote is still yet to be counted in Arizona. There is a HUGE practical different between a 54-46 Senate and a 53-47 Senate.
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Nov 7, 2018 20:10
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Taking the Senate in 2020 relies a lot on picking a good Presidential candidate that will get voters excited to vote. The Democrats can't afford to nominate another Hillary Clinton.
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Nov 8, 2018 15:41
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https://twitter.com/marcorubio/status/1060609799719714817?s=21 FWIW Marco Rubio is bitching about Democratic counties counting their votes. This doesn’t indicate the result will necessarily change but it might tighten the margins enough to trigger a hand-recount.
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Nov 8, 2018 20:13
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I am nowhere close to a lawyer but isn't a law like this unconstitutional? I'd appreciate eke out or evilweasel to weigh in on this. It's one thing if the voter screws up and gets their vote disqualified for whatever reason, but in this case the voters did nothing wrong and their votes would not be counted due to government incompetence. This seems like blatant codified disenfranchisement rather than *wink-wink* *nudge-nudge* disenfranchisement that other laws like photo id aim to accomplish. Mind_Taker fucked around with this message at 21:18 on Nov 8, 2018 |
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Nov 8, 2018 21:16
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Both the Nelson/Scott and Gillum/DeSantis races will probably be recounted at this rate. But it's actually possible, given that there are still apparently a non-insignificant number of mail and early ballots in Broward and Palm Beach Counties that have not even been counted, that before the recounts begin the Senate race might flip to Nelson (and a more outside shot that the governor race flips to Gillum, but he might get under the .25% threshold to trigger a manual recount).
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Nov 8, 2018 22:09
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Hieronymous Alloy posted:I don't want to pour cold water but i have a hard time believing we'd get sufficient off-date turnout for abrams to win an off-date runoff. There might be less election fuckery though since the full weight of the national Democratic party, the ACLU, the media, etc. would be squarely focused on Georgia instead of spread across the country.
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Nov 8, 2018 22:11
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According to this: https://www.pewtrusts.org/~/media/legacy/uploadedfiles/pcs_assets/2009/elecprovballotbrief0709pdf.pdf provisional ballots in Florida made up 0.42% of the total ballots cast in Florida in 2008. My cursory google research shows that Democrats typically overperform in provisional ballots, though to what extent I don't know. Either way, Nelson is only 0.22% behind with some votes left to be counted in Broward and Palm Beach (D strongholds) along with these provisional ballots which probably will chip in to the difference a bit. This is going to be EXTREMELY close.
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Nov 8, 2018 22:18
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evilweasel posted:https://twitter.com/mcimaps/status/1060642052646625281 https://twitter.com/alexkotch/status/1060635668655890437 I disagree with this guy, I was just posting it for the image. Unfortunately I can see why people might have skipped over voting in the Senate: it's in the bottom left corner and his point about the secretary of agriculture doesn't make sense since it is in a different column and these are clearly read in column order, not row.
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Nov 8, 2018 22:26
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Marco Rubio is very shook on Twitter right now about the counting of votes in Florida. Even if neither Nelson nor Gillum win I will enjoy these few moments seeing him squirm a bit.
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Nov 9, 2018 02:20
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Rick Scott and Marco Rubio getting this shook is EXTREMELY pleasing to me. Maybe they know they are about to hear some bad news.
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Nov 9, 2018 02:49
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Yeah everything I’m reading about this Broward nonsense (even before the court order) suggests to me they are not complying with the law and I’m not sure why. I assume it’s just incompetence and hope it’s nothing fraudulent because Republicans will jump all over the VOTER FRAUD narrative (while conveniently ignoring voter suppression).
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Nov 9, 2018 22:42
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Harik posted:I'm not willing to jump immediately to "incompetence" in a minority-heavy county, especially when it comes to funding being so unequally distributed based on property/sales taxes. Broward has always had a hard time doing elections and it'd be interesting to get a deep-dive into why. Sorry, you’re right. Instead of incompetence I should have said insufficient resources.
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Nov 9, 2018 22:52
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As much as I really want it to be a machine error in Broward, looking at the sample ballot the design really is poor and I could see that being the reason so few votes were cast for the Senate race.
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Nov 10, 2018 18:24
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eke out posted:re: Florida recount ballot design This is reassuring, however with the numbers reported (25k fewer votes for Senator than governor) I still think it would put Nelson short of Scott, assuming a ~2:1 Nelson:Scott ratio of votes for those 25k votes. However, if this error only occurred in heavily Democratic precincts in Broward perhaps Nelson could overtake Scott. Bottom line is I don’t see this being resolved any time soon, and the difference between a 52/48 and 53/47 Senate seems kind of big right now. (Also gently caress Rick Scott, who seems to win every election by the narrowest of margins). I hope Democrats have people in EVERY county making sure the recount process is fair.
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Nov 11, 2018 03:04
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eke out posted:on this note, lol: "Well as an old person Trump is bad at literally everything that affects me personally, but man is he good at racism"
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Nov 21, 2018 18:00
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The Hoarse Whisperer is like LT2012, but worse
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Nov 24, 2018 21:55
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DaveWoo posted:Jesus christ, how do you write something like "yeah, getting tear-gassed sucks, but-" and not be absolutely disgusted with yourself https://twitter.com/hegelbon/status/492741034749620224?s=21
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Nov 26, 2018 05:02
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Yeah I don't want to go all DEMS BAD but even if $1.6 billion isn't that much in terms of the federal budget the symbolic value of saying "gently caress off" to Trump regarding the wall is pretty important for who we should be as a nation.
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Nov 27, 2018 22:04
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Did any Democrats vote yes on Farr? Which Republicans voted no?
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Nov 28, 2018 19:51
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I didn't even know this guy was a resistance grifter but I found out as soon as I read the tweet. White House staffers are all idiots but even those idiots know Trump is eyes-deep in Russia business dealings.
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Nov 29, 2018 21:21
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mcmagic posted:Impeachment is political and I think there is an argument to be made that impeaching him would be politically harmful to Democrats. That should really be the only calculus. At the very least the House needs to proceed with their own real investigations and present evidence to the public before considering impeachment.
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Nov 30, 2018 16:20
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Ate My Balls Redux posted:Hmm, do you think that LGBT protection clause was calculated by Trump as a way to try to get some emergency cred from Dems, or a case of broken clock? quote:calculated by Trump lol I'm sure it was Canada that snuck it in there and Trump literally didn't read it.
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Nov 30, 2018 16:25
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Dapper_Swindler posted:https://mobile.twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1069588404172726272 https://mobile.twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1069613383622803456 https://mobile.twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1069614615510859776 trump seems vaguely mad today. I love that the most generous interpretation of his tweets is that Trump is a gigantic sucker for picking the absolute scummiest lawyer imaginable, with a degree from one of worst (if not THE worst) law schools in the country.
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Dec 3, 2018 16:42
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Sorry I'm kind of busy working and only have a few moments to post on my phone: how big a deal are the filings today? This seems like the first time where federal prosecutors have actually connected all of this directly to Trump and are accusing him of a felony/felonies, but please correct me if I'm wrong.
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Dec 8, 2018 00:29
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evilweasel posted:the literal only way you could ever accidentally drop a hard r without being a tremendous racist who uses the word casually in contexts you think are more private is if you are absentmindedly singing along to a song that includes it I remember we were reading Huckleberry Finn out loud together in English class and I had to read the n-word and I was extremely, extremely uncomfortable doing so. Like I actually paused before the word, looked to my teacher, and she said "go ahead, it's ok." Even then I think I may have mumbled it just because I didn't want to actually say the word. Basically yeah I agree with you, dropping the hard r except in extremely rare circumstances is a pretty good sign you're a huge racist.
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Dec 10, 2018 18:22
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gently caress
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Dec 21, 2018 18:24
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The correct dollar figure the Democrats should accept for wall-funding is $0.00. I often believe symbolic gestures don't mean much but it is imperative that the wall gets no funding, even if it's a token amount that does nothing practically speaking to build a wall. A wall is such a heinous and racist idea that it needs complete opposition. The house Democrats should pass something with zero wall funding, and make the Republicans in the Senate and Trump take ownership of the shutdown because IMO the public (aside from Trump's stupid base) is going to blame the GOP the longer this shutdown drags on. The public doesn't want a wall, and they certainly don't think it's enough of a priority to necessitate a government shutdown.
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Dec 28, 2018 21:34
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lmao Romney would get trounced by Trump in a primary
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Jan 2, 2019 02:18
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Your Taint posted:Could you call your financial advisior and change your plan to hopefully minimize losses? I know nothing about finance. If you KNEW that the market is going to bottom out even more you would sell your shares now, then buy the shares when you think they are cheapest. But this is terrible advice because no one, not even the professionals, have any idea what the stock market is going to do in the short term. Even long-term trends are somewhat unreliable. Basically the best advice is ride it out, keep buying more shares if you can afford to, and as you get older shift to more bonds so a cratering stock market doesn't affect your nest egg nearly as much.
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Jan 3, 2019 16:38
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I would not count on Florida in any EV calculus you are doing. We are full of racists who just selected Ron DeSantis over Andrew Gillum and Rick Scott over Bill Nelson, in a blue-wave year. Like yeah, it'd be nice to have Florida. But Democrats should assume we are a red state from now on when crafting a campaign strategy.
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Jan 4, 2019 16:45
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eke out posted:florida went nearly perfectly 50/50 and just reinfranchised 1.4M felons, please stop telling people to give up when we're in a period that desperately needs organization and engagement A few pages back, but yes you're right and I apologize for seeming all fatalistic. Gillum's loss in particular still stings me. A better statement would be "do everything possible to win Florida, but for the love of God have several other paths to win that do not include Florida's EVs."
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Jan 4, 2019 17:53
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AERO PLANES
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Jan 4, 2019 20:05
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lmao at federal workers wanting a wall more than their paychecks
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Jan 4, 2019 20:48
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kidkissinger posted:how do people like chris cilliza face themselves in the mirror with this kind of poo poo 
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Jan 8, 2019 21:15
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I'm sure the Free Market will ensure that our food is safe for consumpti....haha I can't finish the sentence.
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Jan 9, 2019 19:21
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lmao This is the most Rudy thing ever.
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Jan 11, 2019 16:05
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| # ¿ May 15, 2024 16:33 |
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So recent reporting (not just this Rudy item from The Hill) has suggested that there might in fact be some sort of Mueller "report" rather than just letting the indictments speak for themselves. Is there any truth to this, or is it just wild speculation at this point fueled by Giuliani as a source?
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Jan 11, 2019 16:13
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