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Dems should be pushing for non-partisan redistricting to be on the ballot in as many states as possible in 2020
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Nov 7, 2018 17:04
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| # ¿ May 9, 2024 04:02 |
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A guide to the 2020 Senate race This the Senate class 2, which was last up for reelection in 2014, a small Republican wave year. Lets go through every race and see whats going on with it. I don't know everyone super well, but I'm gonna do my best Alabama Incumbent: Doug Jones (D) As we all remember, Doug Jones won an extremely close special election to replace Jeff Sessions. Doug is a centrist democrat who is pro-choice and pro-healthcare. He managed to win on the back of promising to reauthorize CHIP (which he did) and because his opponent was an insane pedophile. Barring a similar kind of own goal by Republicans, this seat will almost certainly go red. I wouldn't be shocked if Jeff Sessions tried to win this seat after he gets kicked to the curb by Trump. Alaska Incumbent: Dan Sullivan (R) He won a fairly close race in 2014, beating previous incumbent Mark Begich by 2%. Seems like a tough seat to flip, but Alaska is weird. Arkansas Incumbent: Tom Cotton (R) rear end in a top hat of the highest order and a Trump toadie. Absolutely murdered the previous incumbent Dem (Mark Pryor) by 17% in 2014. Expect him to cruise to victory unless he is an idiot who decided to leave a safe senate seat for a cabinet position. Colorado Incumbent: Cory Gardner (R) Delaware Incumbent: Chris Coons (D) Very moderate democratic from a blue state, but a very good gun control record. Won the special election 2010 to replace Biden, and has won by 17% and 14%. Expect a primary challenge from the left, but I expect he'll be in the Senate for as long as he wants. Georgia Incumbent: Dave Perdue (R) From a big time politically connect family in Georgie, his brother is a former governor and current a cabinet member. Replaced Saxby Chambliss (R) after he retired in 2014, won the election by about 8%. Georgia is gonna be a voting rights hell hole under Kemp, but I wouldn't be shocked if Abrams tried to see if she can get over the hump in a presidential year. Could possibly flip, but not likely. Idaho Incumbent: Jim Risch (R) Never heard of him, so he isn't a an rear end in a top hat on the front lines of the Trump offensive, but probably still sucks. Long time Idaho politician, starting as LT Governor in 03, followed by governor in 06. He replaced Larry Craid (R) in 08 after Craig got busted trying to solicit a male prostitute in a Minnesota airport bathroom. Abandon all hope ye who campaign here Illinois Incumbent: Dick Durbin (D) Important Dem bigwig, #2 in the senate. Not super progressive, but he is ok. Voted against the Iraq war, major DREAM act backer. Been in the senate since 96, will be 75 by the time the 2020 election gets here. Its his seat to stroll into unless he decides to retire. Iowa Incumbent Joni Ernst (R) Tea Party senator, you might remember her as the Hog Castration lady. After Tom Harkin (D) retired in 2014, she beat her challenger by 9%. This seat isn't as bad as it looks, 3/4 Iowa house seats went for Dems last night. They narrowly reelected a Republican governor last night, so it'll be tough. Iowa is gonna get a lot of attention from Dems due to the primary, so they might have a decent ground game to help put them over the edge if they can recruit someone good. Kansas Incumbent: Pat Roberts (R) Major league rear end in a top hat. Been in the senate forever, going all the way back to 1996. However, don't write this seat off, Dems won an upset here last night and took a House seat and the governorship, plus a bunch of local level stuff. If they can help dig out Kansas from the hole Brownback put them in, it could be a good springboard for a Democratic challenger. Roberts is gonna be 84 by the time 2020 rolls around since he hasn't faced a real challenge in over a decade, so there is a chance he might retire which would help Dems even more. Gonna need to find an amazing recruit here though (Maybe Beto can move to Kansas  )Kentucky Incumbent: Mitch McConnell (R) Yertle the Turtle himself, IMO, the biggest villain in modern American politics. Current majority leader of the Senate, has completely rewritten the rules of how the Senate should function and has been a major Trump enabler. gently caress this jackass Louisiana Incumbent: Bill Cassidy (R) Tea Party jackass, got into a fight with Jimmy Kimmel over the ACA repeal. Unseated incumbent Mary Landrieu (D) in 2014 by 11%. Louisiana didn't have a Governor or Senate race yesterday, so I can't see how it would fare in a wave election. Outside chance of being winnable if the Dems can find someone charismatic, but don't count on it Maine Incumbent: Susan Collins (R) Female Jeff Flake, spent most of her career positioning herself as a moderate Republican, but showed her true colors during the Tax Cut and Kav hearings. Rumored to be retiring, this is a seat Dems need to win to take back the Senate. Dems won the governorship by 12% last night. Dems will nominate an empty suit in 2020 who will win a race that will be way closer than it should be. Massachusetts Incumbent: Ed Markey (D) Middle of the road Dem, good supporter of Net Neutrality. Will be 74 by the time 2020 gets here, but I don't think he is gonna retire. Might get a primary challenge from the left if the Boston area progressives can find a good candidate. Michigan Incumbent: Gary Peters (D) I've literally never heard of him  . He managed to win in Michigan during the 2014 wave, so he must be doing something right. Voted for ACA, Cap and Trade, and DREAM Act while in the House. Wikipedia says he support Occupy Wall Street and that Liz Warren campaigned for him in 2014. Seems like a decent bloke, hopefully Michigan can stay sane and reelect him.Minnesota Incumbent: Tina Smith (D) Tina has been in the Senate for like a year, so not much to be able to say on a national record. Bigwig on the state level DFL. She replaced Al Franken after he resigned and won her special election last night by about 10% Mississippi Incumbent: ????? (?) Currently undecided, there was special election for this seat last night that is going to a run-off. Will probably be won by incumbent Hyde-Smith (R). Montana Incumbent: Steve Daines (R) Empty suit republican rear end in a top hat, CHUD, etc. Prevented Liz Warren from reading a letter during the Sessions confirmation hearings. Maybe Montana can magic up another Tester and beat this rear end in a top hat? Nebraska Incumbent: Ben Sasse (R) Young Jeff Flake/John McCain, a very concerned person who always votes with the orthodoxy. Voted against the Opioid crisis bill, anti-LGBT. Rumored to be considering trying to primary Trump in 2020, but I doubt it. Won 2014 by 34%. Democrats have won in Nebraska before, but the state was very red last night. New Hampshire Incumbent: Jeanne Shaheen (D) Long time Democratic mover and shaker, going back to Carter. Helped Al Gore in the primaries back in 2000. Probably will receive a decent challenge from the Left. Won her senate seat in 2008 by 7% in 08 and 3% back in 14. New Jersey Incumbent: Cory Booker (D) Eloquent black guy from New Jersey, good on social issues, bad on economic ones. Too close to banks and charter schools, wrote a very good federal weed legalization bill and signed onto the same M4A bill that a lot of democratic frontrunners have embraced. Will be a major player in the 2020 presidential primaries. If he loses the bid (and doesn't get VP), expect him to win easily. New Mexico Incumbent: Tom Udall (D) Member of the important Udall Family. Voted for DADT repeal, DREAM act, and all of the other standard democratic stuff. Was early critic of NSA spying, even before Snowden. Might see a primary challenge, but I doubt it will have much of a chance. Won by 25% in 08 and 11% in 14. North Carolina Incumbent: Thom Tillis (R) Decent dude for a Republican, was an influential Republican trying to get the Senate to pass the DREAM Act after Trump torpedoed DACA and is decent on LGBT rights. Backed a bill to protect Mueller. On the other hand, climate change denier and voted for the ACA repeal. I think he is basically a Blue Dog Republican. Won a very tight race in 2014 against incumbent Kay Hagan (D). Winnable in a wave year (Like we did in 08), NC might be the next Virginia. Oklahoma Incumbent: Jim Inhofe (R) Old rear end proto-CHUD. Been the Senator from Oklahoma since 1994, and has been an awful person every day. Supports a constitutional amendment to stop gay marriage, actively fights climate change research, nearly killed himself and a bunch of airport workers when he nearly crashed his Cesna into a truck when he landed on a closed runway - He was 75 at the time. He then tried to punish the FAA for the whole incident. He is gonna be 85 by the time 2020 gets here, so don't be shocked if he gets replaced by a newer, younger CHUD. Oregon Incumbent: Jeff Merkley (D) He seems like a cool dude and was the only Senator to endorse Bernie during the 2016 primary. Dark Horse 2020 presidential primary contestant, good track record but probably not enough name recognition. Maybe a solid VP pick for someone who wants a good progressive on the ticket. Root for him to get reelected, but he won't need much help. He won in 2014 by over 20%. Rhode Island Incumbent: Jack Reed (D) I don't feel like he gets mentioned much, but he has been in the Senate since 96. Run of the mill democrat, good on a lot of positions, nothing that will really blow you away. Likes being in the Senate and supposedly turned down the VP gig when Obama sent out feelers. Will be 70 in 2020, so it'll probably be his last election. South Carolina Incumbent: Lindsey Graham (R) A couple of years ago, I would have said he was another kinda reasonable Republican, but he has gone full on MEGA-CHUD over the last year or 2. I wouldn't be shocked if he took a major cabinet position, he has been playing super nice to Trump recently. AG maybe? Who knows? Hasn't faced a major challenge yet and probably wont in 2020. South Dakota Incumbent: Mike Rounds (R) Former longtime SD governor, former Oil and Gas exec, very anti-choice, a bunch of scandals involving the selling of Visas while he was governor. Took over the seat when Tim Johnson (D) retired in 2014, won by 21% but there were a bunch of independents on the ballot who soaked up 20% of the vote. Could be a pickup spot with good recruiting Tennessee Incumbent: Lamar Alexander (R) Big time rear end in a top hat, big player in the ACA repeal attempts. Will be 80 by the time 2020 gets here, so he might retire. Might be a winnable seat if the Dems can find a great recruit and Alexander retires, but don't get your hopes up. Texas Incumbent: John Cornyn (R) Long time Texas good old boy, Ted Cruz without the negative charisma. Big time friend of Trump. I don't think there is anyone who could topple him in Texas. Gonna be stuck with this rear end in a top hat for another cycle or 2 Virginia Incumbent: Mark Warner (D) Moderate Democrat who has been very involved in the Trump Russia investigation. Voted to help weaken Dodd-Frank earlier this year. Expect him to see a big time primary from the left with all of the progressive momentum going on in Virginia. Virginia is a blue state now, so this will be a keeper, but there is an outside chance progressives manage to dethrone him. West Virginia Incumbent: Shelley Moore Capito (R) Who gives a poo poo, its West Virginia. Even if a Dem does win here, they're gonna be another Manchin Wyoming Incumbent: Mike Enzi (R) Very conservative back bencher, ACA repeal, more coal, privatizing social security and Medicare, huge Iraq war booster, supported constitutional amendments to ban flag burning and gay marriage. Just your typical rear end in a top hat republican who gets 70% of the vote every time he comes up for election. So, 2 easy pickups, plus another 3-4 more if things go well The Glumslinger fucked around with this message at 00:40 on Nov 8, 2018 |
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Nov 7, 2018 22:30
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Of course, Jeff Sessions gets fired while I was writing this, so its already out of date 
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Nov 7, 2018 22:32
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Solaris 2.0 posted:This was an incredibly informative post, thank you. Based on that list, Dems getting the Senate in 2020 looks tough. You mentioned a few possible primary challengers on the liberal end. Outside of the retiring Rs, do you see any that may get a primary challenge from the MAGA crowd? Such as Thom Tillis? They might try again on Lamar Alexander, they tried to primary him in 2008 and 2014 But yeah, they really blew it in 2016, since that class should be the best Democratic map. They probably win an extra 4 Senate seats back then under a theoretical Obama 3rd Term election with good candidates. We gotta quit recruiting empty suits with no charisma, regardless of how many favors people owe them or how well they can self finance. But now we're getting into campaign finance reform, and thats a different kettle of fish The Glumslinger fucked around with this message at 23:16 on Nov 7, 2018 |
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Nov 7, 2018 23:09
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Shimrra Jamaane posted:Anyone know what the status is on the AZ election? Can these uncounted votes put Sienna over the top? I think I saw they won't even start the rest of the counting until tomorrow. The vast majority of remaining votes are in areas that went for Sinema, but its a question of how much the absentee ballots look like the day of ballots. If they're the same or bluer, she should win.
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Nov 7, 2018 23:30
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GHOST_BUTT posted:Solid disagree on his being a middle of the road Republican. His voting record percentage wrt voting the party line during the Trump administration is in the upper nineties and any Democratic challenger could hammer him on how, by extension, he doesn't represent CO values. Gardner is a scumbag but the seat should be a layup. Updated, if you have any more specifics on him I'll add them in. I agree that it is a seat that the Dems should win, hopefully we can get someone good in there
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Nov 8, 2018 00:41
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Ur Getting Fatter posted:Looking almost certain that Florida is heading for a hand recount. Hope you guys are ready for weeks of this poo poo. So excited to get to learn the minutia of Florida ballots again, 18 years was too long
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Nov 8, 2018 18:59
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Pakled posted:So how the hell did Nelson get more votes than Gillum? I expected Gillum to get more than Nelson cause he was the more "exciting" candidate and Rick Scott is a big name in the state. I can imagine someone voting Gillum/Scott on a misguided "political outsiders are good" ideology but what kind of person votes Nelson/DeSantis? Racism and incumbency
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Nov 9, 2018 03:04
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https://twitter.com/DavidJollyFL/status/1060707551631867904
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Nov 9, 2018 03:05
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https://twitter.com/joshtpm/status/1060718085596950528
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Nov 9, 2018 03:41
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tiberion02 posted:A quick bit of insight on the Ohio Supreme Court races: I'm sticking by my prediction that LeBron is gonna run for office shortly after he retires. He's richer than most of the self-funded assholes out there and already has a huge fanbase
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Nov 9, 2018 03:44
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Lightning Knight posted:I went to my local Democratic Party meeting tonight and they had leadership elections. I was with the president of the college Democrats, our professor advisor, and one other member. What state are you in?
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Nov 9, 2018 05:31
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ColonelMuttonchops posted:I was thinking about that earlier, too, about how Ohio needs its own Beto. Purely as someone who goes around the entire state getting people excited to vote dem. They can even lose like Beto did, too, as long as they help bring life back into the party and flip positions in red counties that'd be unattainable otherwise. Hell, maybe Brown can be that guy, Ohioans like him. I'm not sure how much he actually campaigns, though; I've been staring at federal and nationwide poo poo since I got into politics, and I don't know too much about where I actually live. I mean, thats what a good Dem presidential candidate would do in 2020
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Nov 9, 2018 06:18
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There are plenty of states that have a runoff if no candidate gets a majority, IRV just allows them to not need another election to have the runoff
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Nov 13, 2018 22:38
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themrguy posted:Man, the more I’m reading about Sherrod Brown the more I like him. Why does this guy not have a higher national profile? He kicks rear end, well as much as it’s possible for a non-Bernie senator to kick at least. He has a weird gravelly voice. He has also been focusing on getting reelecting before looking onto 2020
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Nov 20, 2018 02:12
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She gave in earlier today in exchange for chairing a subcommittee
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Nov 21, 2018 03:32
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Sanguinia posted:Not to mention Floridas going to be underwater in 20 years. The Lost Electoral Votes of Atalantis is my working title for the best-selling adventure novel that will allow me to afford bread post-retirement Yeah, but Atlantis is gonna still have 2 senators representing the gators living in the swamp that was formerly Florida
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Nov 21, 2018 23:57
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https://twitter.com/JoeBrunoWSOC9/status/1069719818574675969
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Dec 4, 2018 00:51
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https://twitter.com/Taniel/status/1071156700592377856
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Dec 7, 2018 22:38
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https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/1077399792429486080 Fleeing the sinking ship
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Dec 25, 2018 04:06
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Goons: The democratc party needs to stop involving itself in recruiting candidates and let the best people win according to the localityThe Muppets On PCP posted:https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/344196-dem-campaign-chief-vows-no-litmus-test-on-abortion Goons: No, not like that
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Dec 25, 2018 16:54
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PerniciousKnid posted:Are there any theories that did work in red states, aside from ones like "run against a pedophile?" Be Joe Manchin? Also, tacking center worked in Arizona Virginia is hardly a red state at this point, despite the 2010 gerrymander. Basically, Dems need to run candidates with a central campaign message. It's hard for the Republican light model to work if you go out if your way to avoid explaining why you'll be different than a Republican. The Glumslinger fucked around with this message at 05:37 on Dec 27, 2018 |
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Dec 27, 2018 05:34
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https://twitter.com/marceelias/status/1082716973786648576
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Jan 8, 2019 20:36
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Quorum posted:Yep! It would in fact be the final required state* ** I'm glad we have a new constitutional crisis besides the president
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Jan 15, 2019 21:37
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https://twitter.com/RobertMaguire_/status/1085625649505714176
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Jan 16, 2019 22:06
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Just no more politicians who were in frats
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Feb 16, 2019 04:54
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Abel Wingnut posted:is there a thread or discussion on the chicago mayoral race? So who are the criminals and/or assholes running this time?
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Feb 23, 2019 16:35
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https://twitter.com/mattyglesias/status/1101168979207487489 Aaaaaaah, you god drat moron, just run for senate instead of a doomed presidential campaign
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Feb 28, 2019 22:47
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https://twitter.com/NickOchsnerWBTV/status/1113105777114468353
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Apr 2, 2019 17:15
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Special election season has started https://twitter.com/Taniel/status/1113245726010638336 https://twitter.com/chicagotribune/status/1113242150949539840
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Apr 3, 2019 02:04
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Does anyone know if there is a nationwide accounting of how much was spent on political campaigns in 2018? I wonder if it's over a billion dollars an election. It's amazing how much it pumps into consultants hands
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Jun 1, 2019 07:50
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https://twitter.com/Taniel/status/1152733060741287937 Ahahahahahahahahahahaha
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Jul 21, 2019 01:23
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https://twitter.com/srl/status/1185298980013522944 Hopefully this doesn't get overturned
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Oct 18, 2019 22:29
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https://twitter.com/notlarrysabato/status/1191848974627590144 https://twitter.com/AndyFoxWAVY/status/1191848066552385536
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Nov 5, 2019 23:48
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The NYT tracker added a timer for the countdown to check for updates which is nice since I would previously wonder if the site got stuck and wasn't refreshing info Edit: And yet the Vox tracker has more than twice as money votes counted as NYT https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2019/11/5/20948386/kentucky-governor-live-results The Glumslinger fucked around with this message at 00:45 on Nov 6, 2019 |
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Nov 6, 2019 00:27
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https://twitter.com/timothypmurphy/status/1191875924293275648 Seeing a lot of things that look good for Bashear, but its hard to say this early
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Nov 6, 2019 01:36
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https://twitter.com/notlarrysabato/status/1191880338454327297 https://twitter.com/notlarrysabato/status/1191881348866330624
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Nov 6, 2019 01:54
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Congrats Virginia goons https://twitter.com/notlarrysabato/status/1191882227476582401
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Nov 6, 2019 02:00
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https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1191886701410627584 Up 30K votes with 87% reporting, hard to see where Bevin could find the votes to win at this point
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Nov 6, 2019 02:19
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JosefStalinator posted:Is there someone who has the name recognition and charisma to oust him? Bevin is deeply unpopular and he's BARELY losing right now. McConnel's approval numbers in Kentucky are only a few percentage points better, but that will probably be enough to get a close win
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Nov 6, 2019 03:03
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