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rkajdi posted:As a legit question, is there a plan for a charity or something so that people can donate to help defray these costs? What's an impossible amount of money for somebody who's poor isn't for me or a lot of other people, and I think getting ex-criminals (with a few caveats that the actual ammendment covers) back involved with the democratic process is a pretty good thing. It's also a help you-help me situation, since I think that adding these people to the electorate would do wonders at pushing the GOP to be more reasonable in their rhetoric. Teddybear posted:I’ll defer to you, then; I don’t know the details of Florida criminal law, I practice neither Florida law nor criminal law, so I go off my understandings from afar. I was doing some quick searching and I see basically no discussion of this being an issue on twitter, nor are there any notable news pieces on it. If it does become a serious issue and there's mobilization around it and places to donate to help pay court fees in the runup to the next election, I'll definitely be posting about it here.
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Nov 11, 2018 21:07
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Teddybear posted:Amendment 4 isn’t quite as automatic as it sounds— there’s a requirement to repay court costs, I believe, that’s going to make it tough for the very poor to afford restoration. But it will have an impact if by sheer numbers alone— we’re talking over a million newly eligible voters. Even if a fraction of them meet the new requirements and vote, that’s hundreds of thousands of new voters. Florida in 2020 is going to look different from 2018, for sure. If there isn't somebody already setting up a non-profit to take donations to pay those costs for ex-felons in Florida while also registering them, there should be.
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Nov 11, 2018 21:19
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Tapper shutting down Gardner's bullshit about FL election fraud https://twitter.com/CNNPolitics/status/1061629088757174272
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Nov 11, 2018 21:19
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knox_harrington posted:Tapper shutting down Gardner's bullshit about FL election fraud Gardener? Seriously? Do you WANT to be tossed out on your rear end in 2020?
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Nov 11, 2018 21:24
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I think he’s trying to build a national profile and conservative credibility to survive a primary in 2020. Failing that, he might be setting up his post-senate career early.
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Nov 11, 2018 21:26
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Tibalt posted:Depends on the state, and we can take it to the primary thread if it turns into a real conversation, but I think most of the names being thrown around that are stronger in rust belt states (PA, MI, OH) aren't going to be as strong in the southern states (NC and FL). I don't intend to turn it into a real conversation. I was mostly contemplating the complexity of the situation for the Dems and how, in choosing their candidate, they were going to need to balance many competing factors, such as exciting their base as well as appealing either of the two areas you mentioned. There isn't going to be a perfect candidate, so it just becomes an issue of which priorities are the most impactful. (I'm also forgetting that the primaries aren't a process of carefully selecting the optimal candidate.) But the political landscape will change considerably in two years, so my original question that can only be properly addressed in a year. Basically, in summary, Nate's map demonstrates for me that, despite Trump's poor overall popularity, losing to him again is a very solid possibility.
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Nov 11, 2018 21:31
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eke out posted:I was doing some quick searching and I see basically no discussion of this being an issue on twitter, nor are there any notable news pieces on it. The key issue I see here is, how easy is it to put roadblocks in front of people trying to pay their court fees to keep people disenfranchised?
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Nov 11, 2018 21:52
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I feel like 3 states unexpectedly tipped the election to Trump. (PA, MI, WI) and those are the three states most likely to tip the next one away from him. Florida just feels too old, too red, and too unpredictable to really bet any hopes on.
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Nov 11, 2018 21:54
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Z. Autobahn posted:I feel like 3 states unexpectedly tipped the election to Trump. (PA, MI, WI) and those are the three states most likely to tip the next one away from him. Florida just feels too old, too red, and too unpredictable to really bet any hopes on. Consequently, I think we’re gonna see the Kamala Harrises, Cory Bookers, and other frontrunners for the 2020 nomination visit those 3 states a lot in the next year.
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Nov 11, 2018 22:02
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evilweasel posted:The key issue I see here is, how easy is it to put roadblocks in front of people trying to pay their court fees to keep people disenfranchised? Seems like it would be difficult to me, local courts aren't exactly trying to stop people from paying them their pound of flesh. I did some more looking and it's actually much more questionable than has been suggested whether court fees that're not part of a sentence are even included: the ACLU says they'll be suing if it's implemented like that, as the Amendment ONLY reads "upon completion of all terms of sentence including parole or probation." quote:That means convicted felons who have completed their sentences should be able to walk into their county elections office and register to vote starting on that day, said Howard Simon, retiring executive director of the American Civil Liberties Union of Florida. The amendment does not apply to those convicted of murder or sex crimes.
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Nov 11, 2018 22:09
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evilweasel posted:The key issue I see here is, how easy is it to put roadblocks in front of people trying to pay their court fees to keep people disenfranchised? It does seem to be the sort of thing that might get delegated to some understaffed backwater office where the staff somehow is on vacation for six out of twelve months, paper keeps getting lost, and the backlogs are measured in years. But it is so new that it will have to shake out first.
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Nov 11, 2018 22:11
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Your Boy Fancy posted:The ground game is everything in American electoral politics now. Let's stretch that out for people who aren't neck deep in it. Hey Fancy, I did door knocking for Beto, first time for any candidate, this year, and the huge majority of the people with me this year were all first timers as well. Maybe there will be a separate thread for it a year from now as we get into the 2020 stretch, or maybe there already is (?), but I would appreciate any advice or guidance on best ways to approach talking to people about their choice, I didn't really do much in the way of engaging the few supposed undecideds we encountered nor did my partner. I realize even if you don't the simple act of getting the data and making a vote plan with the supporters you find is valuable, but assuming I get involved with this earlier for 2020 it will be more important when knocking earlier in the cycle or doing registration drives. I guess what I'm interested in is samples of the type of conversations, both good ones and unproductive ones, that you have had in doing the ground work either on foot or on the phone.
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Nov 11, 2018 22:24
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eke out posted:Seems like it would be difficult to me, local courts aren't exactly trying to stop people from paying them their pound of flesh. Depending on the average size of the fees, we're easily talking up to hundreds of millions of dollars of collective fees which the state and local governments for some reason aren't bothering collecting. That's a lot of foregone revenue that's hard to explain in terms of concerns for the rights and welfare of people convicted of crimes by all parties involved.
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Nov 11, 2018 22:25
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Z. Autobahn posted:I feel like 3 states unexpectedly tipped the election to Trump. (PA, MI, WI) and those are the three states most likely to tip the next one away from him. Florida just feels too old, too red, and too unpredictable to really bet any hopes on. Problem is you need all three of those to tip back. PA seems back to blue because neither the governor race nor the senate race were close (though Dems underperformed in the House races); MI went fairly solidly blue this election but there were some arguments that's due to the local weakness of the state Republicans and the national Democrats haven't necessarily made enough inroads to solidify the state; Wisconsin's governor election was still very close. I think that any route to victory involves winning PA back. Dems don't win PA, they don't win period. That gives Dems 252 votes, needing 18 (I assume the tie will go to Trump) to win. From there you have: States won in 2018: Wisconsin - 10 EV Michigan - 16 EV Arizona - 11 EV Other: ME-02: 1 EV (appears to have been won by Democrats, but through ranked-choice - I don't know how that will work in 2020). Iowa - 6 EV (Dems lost the governor race; won the House races - I would lean towards this not being winnable). States not won in 2018 but were close enough to mention: Florida - 25 EV North Carolina - 15 EV Georgia - 16 EV Texas - 38 EV Practically speaking, I think you can write off Texas and Iowa right off the bat. Texas will not change enough in 2 years and I don't think any national Democratic candidate will not be able to replicate what Beto did, and if they do manage that I think they've knocked the doors off anyway and speculating which state was the key state is academic. Iowa I don't know much about but given how strongly it's trended red recently, and how white and rural it is, I think that Dems don't win it unless they win everywhere. Even if they don't, I have a hard time seeing how its six votes are the key because no state or two, plus Iowa, makes sense as the only states that flipped. So I think you've got from there the following "categories" where the states will tend to move similarly Rust Belt - MI/WI (26 EV, you win these you win); Winnable South - GA/NC (31 EV, you win these you win); Florida (25 EV - you win Florida, game over); Misc: Arizona, ME-02 - Wildcards (12 EV). You can't win with just these, but it's plausible to pair these with one Rust Belt state or one Winnable South state and win. I think that's not too many avenues to victory for a candidate to be trying at the same time. It's basically six key states, and Pennsylvania, and your goal is to win three.
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Nov 11, 2018 22:34
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https://twitter.com/davidsirota/status/1061689011259944960 this seems self-destructive if dems want to hold power. reversing course as soon as they gain power seems like a good way to depress the turnout of their base
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Nov 11, 2018 22:43
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1337JiveTurkey posted:Depending on the average size of the fees, we're easily talking up to hundreds of millions of dollars of collective fees which the state and local governments for some reason aren't bothering collecting. That's a lot of foregone revenue that's hard to explain in terms of concerns for the rights and welfare of people convicted of crimes by all parties involved. What I was discussing wasn't any "foregone revenue" out of the goodness of anyone's hearts, so I'm not sure why you're characterizing it like that. The literal text of the amendment limits it to court-ordered fees or restitution - ones that are "terms of [the] sentence" - which is meaningfully different than 'any court-related fees you might owe.' Again, quote:... any disqualification from voting arising from a felony conviction shall terminate and voting rights shall be restored upon completion of all terms of sentence including parole or probation. eke out fucked around with this message at 22:51 on Nov 11, 2018 |
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Nov 11, 2018 22:44
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eke out posted:Seems like it would be difficult to me, local courts aren't exactly trying to stop people from paying them their pound of flesh. I hope that suit is successful. Charging fees to reinstate voting rights is basically poll tax, but because the 14th still doesn't cover felons it seems plausible that a conservative court would rule that Harper v Virginia doesn't apply and defer to the state. With a sane court, we might have finally gotten a ruling prohibiting disenfranchisement after time served/parole, but I certainly don't trust the current court to do that. Stickman fucked around with this message at 22:54 on Nov 11, 2018 |
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Nov 11, 2018 22:51
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Condiv posted:this seems self-destructive if dems want to hold power. reversing course as soon as they gain power seems like a good way to depress the turnout of their base It is truly alarming how many places elect full Democratic legislatures and executives who proceed to twiddle their thumbs and do precisely nothing. See also Illinois' new governor abandoning his plans to try and fix Illinois' lovely tax system immediately after winning election.
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Nov 11, 2018 22:53
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Lightning Knight posted:It is truly alarming how many places elect full Democratic legislatures and executives who proceed to twiddle their thumbs and do precisely nothing. See also Illinois' new governor abandoning his plans to try and fix Illinois' lovely tax system immediately after winning election. JB Pritzger is going to be fun to watch in the worst possible way, because the net proceeds of his time as governor are going to be -maybe- getting one or two non-charter schools named after him. he has no vision beyond maybe finding a way to make hotel workers striking illegal. if Madigan's last words aren't "apre moi, le deluge" i'm going to be disappointed
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Nov 11, 2018 22:57
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Lightning Knight posted:It is truly alarming how many places elect full Democratic legislatures and executives who proceed to twiddle their thumbs and do precisely nothing. See also Illinois' new governor abandoning his plans to try and fix Illinois' lovely tax system immediately after winning election. Hopefully he won’t end up in jail like a ridiculous number of Illinois Governors have over the last two decades
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Nov 11, 2018 22:58
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Lightning Knight posted:It is truly alarming how many places elect full Democratic legislatures and executives who proceed to twiddle their thumbs and do precisely nothing. See also Illinois' new governor abandoning his plans to try and fix Illinois' lovely tax system immediately after winning election. quote:Pritzker reinforced his support for other, less significant “near-term” revenue streams, including legalizing (and taxing) marijuana well at least he's for that... him talking about "our first priority should be balancing the budget" is always a terrible sign though FlamingLiberal posted:I mean, he’s an incredibly wealthy DNC megadonor, I am not in the least bit surprised that he is going to balk at hurting his own wallet. well there's balking, and there's promising that he should share a greater burden. balking after saying he'd increase his tax burden during the election... that's just terrible for turnout quote:we ought to ask people like Gov. Rauner and me and the wealthiest people in the state to pay more.” Condiv fucked around with this message at 23:01 on Nov 11, 2018 |
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Nov 11, 2018 22:59
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Lightning Knight posted:It is truly alarming how many places elect full Democratic legislatures and executives who proceed to twiddle their thumbs and do precisely nothing. See also Illinois' new governor abandoning his plans to try and fix Illinois' lovely tax system immediately after winning election. A lot of states (including Illinois) have well and truly hosed themselves by putting austerity into their constitutions. I'm not saying that they shouldn't be pushing more for these things, but I have some sympathy because problems go deeper than just false promises and some of the necessary margins are absolutely ludicrous. E: Focusing on "balancing the budget" instead is absolute bullshit, though - absolutely agreed. Doubly so when taxes are WHAT IS REQUIRED to balance the budget (I'm looking at you, Alaska).
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Nov 11, 2018 22:59
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Condiv posted:well at least he's for that... illinois does genuinely have a serious budget problem, due to the fact that the state refused to pay into pension funds for sixty years straight. the solution is to get rid of our state constitutional amendment saying "no progressive taxation." JB Pritzger, billionaire, has zero interest in fixing this problem in the only way he can, because that means the solution will come out of him and his friends' pockets. the alternate, conservative solution to this problem is to tell pensionholders they get to eat poo poo and will get nothing. unsurprisingly this is quite popular with JB Pritzger, Non-Pension-Haver.
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Nov 11, 2018 23:02
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Yeowch!!! My Balls!!! posted:illinois does genuinely have a serious budget problem, due to the fact that the state refused to pay into pension funds for sixty years straight. the solution is to get rid of our state constitutional amendment saying "no progressive taxation." JB Pritzger, billionaire, has zero interest in fixing this problem in the only way he can, because that means the solution will come out of him and his friends' pockets. Are there any legal pathways to hold state governments to pension promises? Or is precedent simply "you're hosed if the state decides to change the rules"?
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Nov 11, 2018 23:04
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FlamingLiberal posted:Hopefully he won’t end up in jail like a ridiculous number of Illinois Governors have over the last two decades Bad take IMO. I voted for him because he was pro pot, maybe he can be held to that although he's going to be poo poo just like any billionaire would be.
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Nov 11, 2018 23:12
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Stickman posted:Are there any legal pathways to hold state governments to pension promises? Or is precedent simply "you're hosed if the state decides to change the rules"? an anecdote. once upon a time, there was an airfield just south of Soldier Field, where the Bears play. it was small. it was mostly used by rich hobbyists. it was called Miegs Field. an agreement was reached in 2001 to have it finally closed down in 2026. in 2003, outgoing mayor Richard Daley had two giant Xs bulldozed into the middle of the runway overnight. no notices were filed to any outside authorities. several planes were trapped onsite. that morning he declared the airfield closed. the site was then turned into a prairie grass preserve. Maggie Daley liked prairies, and Daley ended up retiring within walking distance of the site. nobody suffered legal consequences for this. nobody in the state of Illinois expects legal challenges to amount to much, when push comes to shove.
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Nov 11, 2018 23:13
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Condiv posted:https://twitter.com/davidsirota/status/1061689011259944960 As I was saying over in US Pol the real problem with the Democratic party isn't how it campaigns, it is how it governs.
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Nov 11, 2018 23:13
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Yeowch!!! My Balls!!! posted:an anecdote. I have so many questions I know I will never get real answers to.  What's Actually Happening at the Border by Brianna Rennix for Current Affairs. For all y'all who keep asking "what happened to the caravan?" quote:You have probably heard that there is a crisis going on at the border right now. Hundreds of troops have been dispatched to the southern frontier to help staunch a massive flood of dangerous immigrants. (It turns out that the best way to defend the homeland is by filling out paperwork and succumbing to heatstroke, because that’s mostly what the troops have been doing lately.) But here’s an interesting puzzle. For the past few weeks, as the Trump administration’s anti-immigration rhetoric has steadily ramped up, the government has been casually mass-releasing immigrants from border detention centers in large numbers. Why would a government that was terrified about the security concerns posed by immigrants just empty out its immigration jails?
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Nov 11, 2018 23:18
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in other news, paradise is now hell https://twitter.com/HumansOfLate/status/1061557641665830913
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Nov 11, 2018 23:19
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Lightning Knight posted:I have so many questions I know I will never get real answers to. the people who were pissed were mostly the aforementioned rich hobbyists, and the preserve was quite nice. Rahm's turning it into a concert venue on the lakefront, which is -also- quite nice. as autocratic gestures flagrantly in defiance of the rule of law go, it's definitely one of the better ones! but hoo boy, if you think anyone in the state of Illinois expects a legal challenge to get the state government to fulfill its obligations is going to pan out, you have another thing coming
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Nov 11, 2018 23:22
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"Actually, you're the racist for saying this is racist" https://twitter.com/jamiedupree/status/1061756437163114498
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Nov 12, 2018 00:14
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An "exaggerated expression of regard" is about being pro lynching if anyone wants to know.
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Nov 12, 2018 00:21
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"How could anyone take negative connotation out of a public hanging reference in Mississippi?"
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Nov 12, 2018 00:23
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Sen. Hyde-Smith went on to say “Anyone who actually thinks I would want to attend a public hanging is sorely mistaken. Well, unless it was a...” but a young staffer chloroformed her before she could finish the statement.
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Nov 12, 2018 00:25
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Lightning Knight posted:I have so many questions I know I will never get real answers to. Operation Red Meat For The Base is such a predictable waste of both funds and manpower. I don't know if I'm cynical enough to actually believe they released so many immigrants in hope of having an immigrant crime wave.
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Nov 12, 2018 00:31
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Stickman posted:Are there any legal pathways to hold state governments to pension promises? Or is precedent simply "you're hosed if the state decides to change the rules"? Yes. The last Dem governor of Illinois signed a pension-slashing bill that was struck down by the state's supreme court.
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Nov 12, 2018 00:32
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Willa Rogers posted:Yes. The last Dem governor of Illinois signed a pension-slashing bill that was struck down by the state's supreme court. In that case pensions were protected in the state constitution. The more general answer is that it depends on the law of the state in question.
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Nov 12, 2018 00:40
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Edit: nm
Mahoning fucked around with this message at 01:08 on Nov 12, 2018 |
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Nov 12, 2018 00:52
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Helsing posted:As I was saying over in US Pol the real problem with the Democratic party isn't how it campaigns, it is how it governs. Can't Colorodo folks bombard them with phone calls that this ain't okay because it seems like we need to hold their feet to the fire or they'll never do anything good. Electing Democrats doesn't mean anything if they default to corporatism the second the take office. And unlike Republicans them being terrible corporate shills is not what they were elected to do so it just depresses turnout in the next election because they've downright proven that  e: This thread is cool and good and everything I wanted.
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Nov 12, 2018 01:02
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