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Teddybear posted:This feels like an unusual amount of retracted/blown calls for an election-- both in that it's several media companies making the same mistakes, and that there's been so many of them. I don't remember these sorts of slipups happening in 2016 or before-- am I wrong? There hasn't been a midterm race with this kind of turnout in 100 years, their models didn't account for that. They used the best information they had. (Nate's model ended up being almost perfect. His predictions were never far from Sen R - 0 to R+2 or House D - 35 to D - 40)
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Nov 12, 2018 05:55
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turns out the 24 hour news cycle biz model of getting the fastest hottest fastest take is very very stupid. Maybe they should just literally report "yup the passage of time still works and the polls closed, final results in several hours for boring places, FL results in a week."
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Nov 12, 2018 05:55
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Sanguinia posted:There hasn't been a midterm race with this kind of turnout in 100 years, their models didn't account for that. They used the best information they had. Also there is growth of early voting/vote by mail, which is generally much slower to count, and may be demographically different from election-day voting.
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Nov 12, 2018 05:57
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The calling of races on election night really needs to be moderated somehow, mainly because calls to violence over races called too soon are now a thing thanks to our ghoul of a President and his ghoul of a party. I don't know if our news organizations are capable of figuring that one out though.  Like sure, call races where "The total number of absentee ballots cannot exceed the current lead" but that's it.
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Nov 12, 2018 06:01
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mistaya posted:The calling of races on election night really needs to be moderated somehow, mainly because calls to violence over races called too soon are now a thing thanks to our ghoul of a President and his ghoul of a party. I don't know if our news organizations are capable of figuring that one out though. There's a small problem of the 1st amendment in terms of actual regulation of this. It all has to be internal self-regulation. The problem is that there is more reward for calling races first than calling them right when the reversals come days later.
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Nov 12, 2018 06:09
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mistaya posted:The calling of races on election night really needs to be moderated somehow, mainly because calls to violence over races called too soon are now a thing thanks to our ghoul of a President and his ghoul of a party. I don't know if our news organizations are capable of figuring that one out though. Arguably the entire practice of calling races the night of the election, and not waiting for some kind of official call from the people actually counting the votes, is itself remarkably stupid and hosed up.
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Nov 12, 2018 06:12
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After the networks blew the call on Florida in 2000 they pulled back and waited longer for several cylces, but with the passage of time the buissness pressure to be first to call has overcame that caution.
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Nov 12, 2018 06:13
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Deteriorata posted:There's a small problem of the 1st amendment in terms of actual regulation of this. It all has to be internal self-regulation. Or it has to be consumer driven. Or maybe our understanding of the 1st amendment should evolve and we need to confront some uncomfortable truths for the greater good.
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Nov 12, 2018 06:18
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On the topic of uncalled races, here's what I was able to find in a few minutes of blind googling looking only for updates from the last 24 Hours. These are races that have not yet been decided according to the New York Times House Elections Results list. New York 22nd: BALLOTS HAVE BEEN IMPOUNDED IN THE 22ND CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT RACE Utah 4th: Gehrke: Latest election results break Love’s way and so we wait for a call in the 4th District Main 2nd: Secretary of State defends election integrity amid concerns from Maine GOP Georgia 7th: Democrat Bourdeaux takes legal action as 7th District race remains unresolved Texas 23rd: https://twitter.com/jbendery/status/1061666887627628544?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Enews%7Ctwgr%5Etweet I was unable to find updates from the last 24 Hours concerning the California 10th, 39th and 45th, the New Jersey 3rd, or the New York 27th. However, local news outlets did call the New York 27th for Actually Indited Criminal Chris Collins (R) and have not since retracted.
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Nov 12, 2018 06:32
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I doubt NY-27 will change since NY has pretty restrictive absentee rules.
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Nov 12, 2018 06:49
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https://mobile.twitter.com/NatashaBertrand/status/1061790562116952064
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Nov 12, 2018 07:27
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After Trump publicly distanced himself from him, it's doubtful Whitaker will still be around by January.
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Nov 12, 2018 07:32
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enraged_camel posted:After Trump publicly distanced himself from him, it's doubtful Whitaker will still be around by January. He'll still get subpoenaed.
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Nov 12, 2018 08:09
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Vincent Van Goatse posted:He'll still get subpoenaed. For what? They want to interrogate him and force him to recuse himself from the Russia stuff. If he is no longer acting AG by then, what would be the point of a subpoena?
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Nov 12, 2018 08:12
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I had heard about Arnie's anti gerrymandering campaign but didn't realise it went beyond California. Independent redistricting seems like a very good idea, depending on how it's implemented of course. https://mobile.twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/1061815848258613248
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Nov 12, 2018 10:02
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this isn't from a news outlet, but I think it's worthwhile enough to post here https://twitter.com/LA_SocialistRA/status/1061663031904501760
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Nov 12, 2018 10:53
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Condiv posted:this isn't from a news outlet, but I think it's worthwhile enough to post here Christ. Surely that can't be real. "I understand your house is on fire but you have to come in to work"
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Nov 12, 2018 10:55
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knox_harrington posted:I had heard about Arnie's anti gerrymandering campaign but didn't realise it went beyond California. Independent redistricting seems like a very good idea, depending on how it's implemented of course. He was a poo poo governor, but he still has a lot of popular caché and if he commits the rest of his public life to the termination of gerrymandering then I'm all for it. knox_harrington posted:Christ. Surely that can't be real. "I understand your house is on fire but you have to come in to work" poo poo like this is totally real. Low-level managers have to beg, plead, and threaten to wrangle a full staff at even the best of times. If they can't, then they're the ones stuck working the unfilled shifts— often without the benefit of overtime, because they count as "management" and are paid a salary even if they work 60-hours in a week and take home less than the hourly employees would in the same time. Yay capitalism! Skippy McPants fucked around with this message at 11:30 on Nov 12, 2018 |
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Nov 12, 2018 11:22
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knox_harrington posted:Christ. Surely that can't be real. "I understand your house is on fire but you have to come in to work" Corporate stooges are sociopaths
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Nov 12, 2018 12:21
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On the subject of early calls gone wrong, yes it's happened before. We can ask president Dewey all about it. On the subject of PR folk to Polk county: not all of PR is urban. Iirc, the rural areas have been slowest to recover, so it would make sense to see movent to other rural zones.
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Nov 12, 2018 12:59
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enraged_camel posted:For what? They want to interrogate him and force him to recuse himself from the Russia stuff. If he is no longer acting AG by then, what would be the point of a subpoena?
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Nov 12, 2018 13:13
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Donald getting dissed by the French Army https://mobile.twitter.com/armeedeterre/status/1061908742999027712
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Nov 12, 2018 13:22
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https://twitter.com/bopinion/status/1061376714931167232?s=21
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Nov 12, 2018 13:24
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Tibalt posted:Well, potentially, he could testify under oath that Trump ordered him to kill or hamper the Mueller investigation. I suspect that Democrats now controlling the House also want to make as many people in the executive branch miserable, and to use the constant threat of being pulled into an investigation to dissuade people from taking positions. It'll be a tightrope walk: too few subpoenas and progressives will be pissed, and too many will rile up and mobilize the regressive base rather than demoralize them. knox_harrington posted:Donald getting dissed by the French Army
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Nov 12, 2018 13:30
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https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1061962869376540672
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Nov 12, 2018 13:55
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I'd say it's working exactly as intended
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Nov 12, 2018 14:00
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Apart from this clearly being not written by Donald, I feel like there has been a shift further into conspiracy theory territory in his missives recently
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Nov 12, 2018 14:08
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Thank you for this thread PPJ!
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Nov 12, 2018 14:19
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death to capitalism knox_harrington posted:Donald getting dissed by the French Army a translation for anyone interested: "It's raining, but it's no big deal. We stay motivated."
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Nov 12, 2018 14:19
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Charlz Guybon posted:After the networks blew the call on Florida in 2000 they pulled back and waited longer for several cylces, but with the passage of time the buissness pressure to be first to call has overcame that caution. I do not understand the concept of being "first to call" and why that should matter to news organizations. It definitely seems to run counter to basic journalistic practices to just guess who's going to win based on publicly available information, instead of just waiting. Like... if they really wanted to make this a spectacle, they could treat close races and absentee ballots like OT. Announces who is ahead and by how many votes once the precincts are 100% reported, then if it's close, they send that race into their OT coverage where they just talk about the process of counting absentee ballots, set up a horse-race graphic that shows the gap needing to be closed, and take the time to educate the public on poo poo like recount laws in that district/state.
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Nov 12, 2018 14:23
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enraged_camel posted:For what? They want to interrogate him and force him to recuse himself from the Russia stuff. If he is no longer acting AG by then, what would be the point of a subpoena? It's important for America to know some poo poo about whitaker, and off the top of my head: "How did your name come to be on a list of people who were eligible to be acting attorney general?" "Were you aware you didn't meet the qualifications for this role under the vacancies act?" "Why did you immediately assume control over the Mueller probe when you have a very public history of being critical of it?" "What actions did you take while in control of the OSC?" I'd also call Rod Rosenstein to ask him how the process of him being removed from OSC oversight went.
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Nov 12, 2018 14:29
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Chilichimp posted:I do not understand the concept of being "first to call" and why that should matter to news organizations. It definitely seems to run counter to basic journalistic practices to just guess who's going to win based on publicly available information, instead of just waiting. Most people just want to know who won and if they hear ABC is calling races while CBS isn't yet, they'll switch over to ABC to find out who won faster, giving ABC higher ratings and therefore more money.
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Nov 12, 2018 14:57
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It also isn't particularly hard to call most races. I think if you crunched the numbers, my gut feeling is that most elections have similar number of late switches. It's just that this election is particularly important at the margins, why most elections your average voter doesn't care if the Democrats won 5 seats versus 10 seats.
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Nov 12, 2018 15:09
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His candidates are 99% likely to win the recount, because that's what happens in recounts. Why say this? If he wasn't such an ignorant, whiny baby, I'd take this as an indication that he knows something we don't and that maybe it really was a machine error in Broward that caused the under count. But one should never assume Trump knows something, he's just a dick.
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Nov 12, 2018 15:09
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evilweasel posted:Most people just want to know who won and if they hear ABC is calling races while CBS isn't yet, they'll switch over to ABC to find out who won faster, giving ABC higher ratings and therefore more money. right, but then you get Election OT coverage for days and days. No one is doing that, so someone do it and nobody will watch anything else. Just get Jerry "the King" Lawler as the color commentator.
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Nov 12, 2018 15:12
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I am sure even if the news didn't call any races people would still act like they did. Like if day one they only said "with 75% of the precincts reporting XYZ has a lead of 70 to 30" people would take that as "XYZ won" even if that absolutely doesn't say that. I think even if the news restated frequently it didn't mean that people would still do the "yeah, but it means that"
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Nov 12, 2018 15:16
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Ok... https://twitter.com/politico/status/1061985740425433088?s=19 I take it back, in no way do you "gotta hand it" to Kellyanne https://twitter.com/thehill/status/1061985229823508481?s=19
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Nov 12, 2018 15:20
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https://mobile.twitter.com/peterbakernyt/status/1061935455153909760
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Nov 12, 2018 15:39
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Our country is run by morons.
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Nov 12, 2018 15:42
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https://mobile.twitter.com/nprpolitics/status/1061922984116445184
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Nov 12, 2018 15:46
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