Register a SA Forums Account here!
JOINING THE SA FORUMS WILL REMOVE THIS BIG AD, THE ANNOYING UNDERLINED ADS, AND STUPID INTERSTITIAL ADS!!!

You can: log in, read the tech support FAQ, or request your lost password. This dumb message (and those ads) will appear on every screen until you register! Get rid of this crap by registering your own SA Forums Account and joining roughly 150,000 Goons, for the one-time price of $9.95! We charge money because it costs us money per month for bills, and since we don't believe in showing ads to our users, we try to make the money back through forum registrations.
 
  • Post
  • Reply
Charlz Guybon
Nov 16, 2010

Projection.

That's what he would do.

In other news, our chance of winning Arizona in 2020 has gone up

https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/1061771926211907584

Adbot
ADBOT LOVES YOU

Charlz Guybon
Nov 16, 2010
After the networks blew the call on Florida in 2000 they pulled back and waited longer for several cylces, but with the passage of time the buissness pressure to be first to call has overcame that caution.

Charlz Guybon
Nov 16, 2010

His candidates are 99% likely to win the recount, because that's what happens in recounts. Why say this?

If he wasn't such an ignorant, whiny baby, I'd take this as an indication that he knows something we don't and that maybe it really was a machine error in Broward that caused the under count. But one should never assume Trump knows something, he's just a dick.

Charlz Guybon
Nov 16, 2010

Chilichimp posted:

That literally did help the Republicans in 2016 with their base, so who knows? Maybe it gets people motivated for 2020.

Amendment 4 in Florida to re-enfranchise felons won over 60% of the vote.

Antigerrymandering iniatives passed overwhelmingly in Colorado, Michigan and Missouri, and last I saw was narrowly leading in Utah.

It would seem that expanding democracy is more popular than people think.

Charlz Guybon
Nov 16, 2010

exploded mummy posted:

the margin in bay county was about 45,000 to 15,000

which is a net of about twice the nelson scott difference and slightly less than the gillum nazi difference
What...? Did they actually count those ballots?

Charlz Guybon
Nov 16, 2010

Relentless posted:

Yep. They sure did.

How many of the 45 000 votes from that county were emailed?

Charlz Guybon
Nov 16, 2010

Heck Yes! Loam! posted:

Is there something white house employees get after being there a year that he is trying to prevent?

They can get tax deductions for selling assests to comply with ethics rules.

The Mooch got screwed on this IIRC.

Charlz Guybon
Nov 16, 2010

theCalamity posted:

Nike founder Phil Knight tries to buy election for GOP gov candidate

You'd think they'd at least take this poo poo personally, but nope. <_<

Charlz Guybon
Nov 16, 2010

If they can't win that argument with his public statements, they aren't going to win it with anything.

Charlz Guybon
Nov 16, 2010

Shifty Pony posted:


The military has a 26 page brownie recipe/specification document. The guide for how my job works is over 2000 pages.

That's just the opposite extreme. I don't care if you're the royal chef of Saudi Arabia, under pain of death if you gently caress the brownies up, you don't a 26 page brownie reciepe. You've gone way past the point where the recipe is an active hindrance to making good brownies.

Charlz Guybon
Nov 16, 2010
Love is going down after all. Dem floor is now +39 in the House

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1064688106945880064

Charlz Guybon
Nov 16, 2010

JasonV posted:

Trump is having it out with supreme court judges on Twitter. That can't be a great legal strategy.....

Link?

Charlz Guybon
Nov 16, 2010

sexpig by night posted:

she has brain poisoning that makes her think it's somehow more noble to die on the bench or whatever and now most of america has low grade panic attacks when an elderly woman feels slightly ill because we all know she's not surviving 8 years and the only question is if she kicks it now and let's trump put another absolute psychopath like Kav on or maybe after 2020 where the dems may have enough seats to force him to put forth a 'normal' republican who at least won't have a screaming, vengeance swearing, meltdown.
So, you're assuming Trump wins?

Charlz Guybon
Nov 16, 2010

sexpig by night posted:

to put it in broader context the Jones upset was in an equally ruby red setup and it took Moore being a literal child molester to let him get a squeaker win that will almost certainly be flipped next election he's up.

Mississippi's population is 37 percent African-American. That's 10 percent higher than Alabama. That makes it significantly more favorable to the Dems than Alabama.

Charlz Guybon
Nov 16, 2010
Begun, the Gene Wars have

https://twitter.com/razibkhan/status/1066856161587224576

https://www.technologyreview.com/s/612458/exclusive-chinese-scientists-are-creating-crispr-babies/

Charlz Guybon
Nov 16, 2010
From the 538 live blog

Is it possible?

https://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/mississippi-senate-runoff-election-results/

quote:


Nate Silver8:40 PM


I think yfall are being too cautious on telling everyone to be cautious; these numbers are pretty bad for Hyde-Smith so far and theyfre coming from different parts of the state. Yeah, shefs still the favorite, but Espyfs odds have gone up versus where we were at the start of the night.

øb
Nathaniel Rakich8:39 PM


CNN has early results from Leflore County, a 69-31 Democratic county in the first round. Espy is leading there 89 percent to 11 percent.

øbøc
Perry Bacon Jr.8:39 PM


One thing Espy has going for him: He really campaigned as a moderate. He said that he would have voted for last yearfs tax bill, which basically every Democrat on the Hill opposed and he is probably ideologically to the right of Doug Jones. He has not made strong comments on racial issues like Gillum did in Floridafs gubernatorial race. Now, does being black translate as liberal for voters no matter what you say, particularly in Mississippi? Maybe. But he has positioned himself well I think to get some moderate Republicans and independents to back him.


Nate Silver8:36 PM


Now wefve got votes in from Warren Co. in southwest Mississippi and they show Espy at 57 percent, as compared with 48 percent on Election Day. Itfs not a ton of the vote, but so far these numbers arenft bad for him.

Charlz Guybon
Nov 16, 2010
Stop getting my hopes up Nate!

quote:


Nathaniel Rakich8:46 PM


This is HIGHLY speculative, but it is interesting how the major GOP vote centers in Mississippi are urban/suburban areas like Rankin, DeSoto and Harrison counties. Those are exactly the kinds of places we saw defect to Democrats earlier this month. (Although, importantly, not in Mississippi.)

€\€]
Geoffrey Skelley8:45 PM


About 25 percent of DeSoto County¡¯s precincts have reported, and Hyde-Smith only leads by six points there. In the first found of voting, the combined GOP vote led by 30 points. This is notable because DeSoto ¡ª part of the Memphis area ¡ª provided 5.3 percent of the total vote on Nov. 6, trailing only Hinds (8.4 percent) and Rankin (5.5 percent) in the Jackson area, and Harrison (5.4 percent) in Gulfport-Biloxi along the Gulf Coast. However, unlike some states, Mississippi does not have a handful of counties that provide a super-sized portion of the vote.

Charlz Guybon
Nov 16, 2010

Sanguinia posted:

Can't be going too well if the Senate GOP thinks it's safe to put a State/No State vote on the table.

That's just them being incompetent.

Charlz Guybon
Nov 16, 2010
I know it's the Trump white house, but who could possibly be this dumb?

Charlz Guybon
Nov 16, 2010

Nonsense posted:

:laffo: if Non Senator Beto runs for President because he was on Ellen.

Nixon won two terms after losing a presidential election and a race for governor.

Lincoln served one term in the House, two less than Beto. The only reason he was famous at all was his loss to Stephen Douglas for Senate.

Charlz Guybon
Nov 16, 2010

VitalSigns posted:

No it had nothing to do with logistics, again governors and congressional reps etc were elected by popular vote, if they couldn't validate votes then they couldn't validate those elections either (nor the popular presidential elections that most states actually held to choose the slate of presidential electors anyway).

It was 100% the second thing you said, the founders feared the mob might choose a president who would redistribute wealth from the upper classes and wanted to make sure aristocratic intermediaries with the wealth and connections to win dozens of individual Elector races (or better yet be selected by state legislatures) would be there to intervene on behalf of their class interests. And that's not supposition Hamilton spelled it out in the Federalist papers.

You're also correct that this idea of independent aristocratic Electors choosing one of their own didn't survive the inevitable formation of political parties and a bunch of the founders were still around to see a country bumpkin and proto-Trump become President Andrew Jackson

Though a horrible man, with horrible policies, I don't think it is in any way fair to tar Jackson as a proto Trump since he was actually a good at being a general and politician, he was quite competent at carrying out his plans.

Charlz Guybon
Nov 16, 2010

HootTheOwl posted:

The electoral college exists because of the same compromises that caused us to have both a house of representatives and a senate: An inflated value on the purpose of states, a way for slave states to count their slaves and own them too, and protections for smaller states. I didn't think this was a secret.
The Constitution was counterrevolutionary

Counter revolutionary compared to what? The Articles of Confederation?

Charlz Guybon
Nov 16, 2010

Silver2195 posted:

Some historians (e.g., Charles Beard) have argued precisely that. I don't think it's a very common view among historians today, though.

The government under the articles had way less power than the EU today. It was barely a government at all.

Charlz Guybon
Nov 16, 2010
Given how bad and illegal most of the advice he's given has been, this could be a disaster for Trump

https://twitter.com/aterkel/status/1073337153676034054

Charlz Guybon
Nov 16, 2010
New election coming in NC 9th district

https://edition-m.cnn.com/2018/12/1...st%3D9999999999

Charlz Guybon
Nov 16, 2010
Trump was at the 2015 meeting where the hush money payments were decided on.

https://edition-m.cnn.com/2018/12/1...st%3D9999999999

Charlz Guybon
Nov 16, 2010

Neo_Crimson posted:

It's worse than that, David maybe, but Charles Koch is a dyed-in-the-wool, Kool-Aid drinking, Libertarian ideologue. He's deliberately flouted government regulations many times, even when complying meant he would actually profit.

Wait, really? I always assumed they were more grifters than ideologues.

Charlz Guybon
Nov 16, 2010
Yikes

https://twitter.com/merica/status/1075898630043774981

Charlz Guybon
Nov 16, 2010
Krakatoa erupts for the first time since the 19th century. Hundreds killed and wounded by the tsunami. A concert by the beach is wiped out on video. Very disturbing

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/12/22/indonesia-tsunami-least-20-dead-165-injured-waves-hit-beaches/

Charlz Guybon
Nov 16, 2010
It would be nice if those kind of numbers started to show up in the approval polls

https://twitter.com/MSNBC/status/1076643588723888128

Charlz Guybon
Nov 16, 2010
I don't care about his policitics, Rick just as a way with words. :allears:

https://twitter.com/TheRickWilson/status/1076135527802458113

Charlz Guybon
Nov 16, 2010

Absurd Alhazred posted:

ICP are now anti-fascist.
You have a good point. I had forgotten about that.

Charlz Guybon
Nov 16, 2010
Tanking the economy out of pure incompetence, classic Trump move.

https://twitter.com/paulkrugman/status/1076974996227014656
https://twitter.com/paulkrugman/status/1076975432661110784
https://twitter.com/paulkrugman/status/1076976766655307778
https://twitter.com/paulkrugman/status/1076979449298604032
https://twitter.com/paulkrugman/status/1076980445512900608

Charlz Guybon fucked around with this message at 03:36 on Dec 24, 2018

Charlz Guybon
Nov 16, 2010

Lewd Mangabey posted:

"Hi, this is the Treasury Secretary. I just wanted to make an unsolicited phone call during the government shutdown and stock market freefall to let you know that we absolutely have enough credit. Absolutely definitely have enough credit. OK, gotta go."

Calls back real quick: "Also, my boss says I'm supposed to tell you the guy in charge of the system which maintains credit and liquidity for all of the nation's bank is a huge douchebag. But yeah, nothing to worry about, have a Merry Christmas."

Who could have predicted this!?

https://twitter.com/thehill/status/1077236735376048131

Charlz Guybon
Nov 16, 2010

GreyjoyBastard posted:

I'm not at all sure he can, but if he did I suspect the southern red senators would flip their poo poo.

He would actually get impeached and convicted if he did that. The stock market would crater as the economy came to a screeching halt and nose dived into a deep recession.

Charlz Guybon
Nov 16, 2010

Silver2195 posted:

Trump got 2 million more votes in 2016 than Romney did in 2012. That's enough to matter.

Romney got 47.2 % of the vote.
Trump got 46.1% of the vote.

He did worse than Romeny.
He won because Hillary did far worse in comparison to Obama (and the election is decided bu the EC instead of total votes)

Charlz Guybon
Nov 16, 2010
Good

https://twitter.com/davidminpdx/status/1080664990711918593

Charlz Guybon
Nov 16, 2010
They're scared
https://twitter.com/AOC/status/1080998665672630272

Charlz Guybon
Nov 16, 2010
:lol:

https://twitter.com/MSNBC/status/1081395238013407238

Adbot
ADBOT LOVES YOU

Charlz Guybon
Nov 16, 2010
:psyduck:

https://twitter.com/nycsouthpaw/status/1081412855973462016

  • 1
  • 2
  • 3
  • 4
  • 5
  • Post
  • Reply